scholarly journals Bounding Infection Prevalence by Bounding Selectivity and Accuracy of Tests: With Application to Early COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jörg Stoye

Abstract I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized as restriction on the effect of true infection status on the odds ratio of getting tested and thereby embeddable in logit specifications. The motivating application is to the COVID-19 pandemic but the strategy may also be useful elsewhere. Evaluated on data from the pandemic’s early stage, even the weakest of the novel bounds are reasonably informative. Notably, and in contrast to speculations that were widely reported at the time, they place the infection fatality rate for Italy well above the one of influenza by mid-April.


Author(s):  
L. P. Leska

A hypothetical proposition is stated that mythologization of objects in M. Garetsky’s works is a way to harmonize the surrounding world and man in it, and also a precise picture of the reality, a sign of changes and calamities.In accordance with M. Garetsky’s mythopoetical concept, the tragic spirit of human life is vivid in simultaneous personi­ fication of objects and objectivation of people; it is revealed in such moments as hiding face (“Winter”), or partial identification of man with clothes (“Guiet current”). Complete and irrevocable objectivation of man is presented by the author in the story “Winter” and the novel “Guiet current”.In the story “Winter” the central place, or a scene where objects attack man is a mythological image of a house, which fulfills various content and conceptual functions in the author’s mythmaking. On the one hand, the house is a protective hearth, which gives man complete protection, like in the stories “In a Sauna”, “Native Root”. On the other hand, it is a place of uncomfortable and constrained human life.It is stressed that in M. Garetsky’s descriptions we see a transition from life precision to dethronement of social myth. There is a similar fine line between life plane and myth in the story “In a Sauna”, but this work, unlike the story “Tar”, depicts not destruction of myth, but its growth and reinforcement, which is symbolically revealed in sentences and in magical charms (the story “Winter”).



Author(s):  
Kun Hwang ◽  
Hyung Sun Hong ◽  
Won Young Heo

This study aimed to ascertain whether medical students would enter a closed area where there was a raging epidemic of an infectious disease with a high fatality rate, and includes reasons for the students entering or refusing to enter. Participants included 50 second-year medical students. They were assigned to read a novel entitled 28, written by Youjeong Jeong, and discuss it in groups. Using their book reports, their decisions of whether or not to enter Hwayang, the city from the novel, and the reasons for their decisions were analyzed; we furthermore investigated the factors affecting their decisions. Among the 50 respondents, 18 students (36%) answered that they would enter, and the remaining 32 students (64%) answered that they would not enter the zone. The reasons given for entering were responsibility (44%), sense of ethics (33%), social duty (17%), and sense of guilt (6%). The reasons the students provided for not entering were inefficiency (44%), worry regarding family (28%), needlessness of sacrifice (19%), and safety not ensured (9%). Students who had four or fewer family members were more likely to enter Hwayang than were students who had five or more family members (odds ratio, 1.85). Students who had completed over 100 hours of volunteer work were more likely to enter Hwayang than were students who had volunteered less than 100 hours (odds ratio, 2.04). Owing to their “responsibility” as a doctor, 36% of medical students answered that they would enter an exclusion zone in an infected district with a high fatality rate. However, 64% answered they would not enter because of “inefficiency.” For the medical students it is still a question ‘To enter or not to enter?’



Author(s):  
Menghan TAO ◽  
Ning XIAO ◽  
Xingfu ZHAO ◽  
Wenbin LIU

New energy vehicles(NEV) as a new thing for sustainable development, in China, on the one hand has faced the rapid expansion of the market; the other hand, for the new NEV users, the current NEVs cannot keep up with the degree of innovation. This paper demonstrates the reasons for the existence of this systematic challenge, and puts forward the method of UX research which is different from the traditional petrol vehicles research in the early stage of development, which studies from the user's essence level, to form the innovative product programs which meet the needs of users and being real attractive.



2020 ◽  
pp. 182-197
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Goral

The aim of the article is to analyse the elements of folk poetics in the novel Pleasant things. Utopia by T. Bołdak-Janowska. The category of folklore is understood in a rather narrow way, and at the same time it is most often used in critical and literary works as meaning a set of cultural features (customs and rituals, beliefs and rituals, symbols, beliefs and stereotypes) whose carrier is the rural folk. The analysis covers such elements of the work as place, plot, heroes, folk system of values, folk rituals, customs, and symbols. The description is conducted based on the analysis of source material as well as selected works in the field of literary text analysis and ethnolinguistics. The analysis shows that folk poetics was creatively associated with the elements of fairy tales and fantasy in the studied work, and its role consists of – on the one hand – presenting the folk world represented and – on the other – presenting a message about the meaning of human existence.



2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1682-1695
Author(s):  
Foziyah Zakir ◽  
Kanchan Kohli ◽  
Farhan J. Ahmad ◽  
Zeenat Iqbal ◽  
Adil Ahmad

Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease that remains unnoticed until a fracture occurs. It is more predominant in the older age population, particularly in females due to reduced estrogen levels and ultimately limited calcium absorption. The cost burden of treating osteoporotic fractures is too high, therefore, primary focus should be treatment at an early stage. Most of the marketed drugs are available as oral delivery dosage forms. The complications, as well as patient non-compliance, limit the use of oral therapy for prolonged drug delivery. Transdermal delivery systems seem to be a promising approach for the delivery of anti-osteoporotic active moieties. One of the confronting barriers is the passage of drugs through the SC layers followed by penetration to deeper dermal layers. The review focuses on how anti-osteoporotic drugs can be molded through different approaches so that they can be exploited for the skin to systemic delivery. Insights into the various challenges in transdermal delivery and how the novel delivery system can be used to overcome these have also been detailed.



Author(s):  
Charles Dickens ◽  
Dennis Walder

Dombey and Son ... Those three words conveyed the one idea of Mr. Dombey's life. The earth was made for Dombey and Son to trade in, and the sun and moon were made to give them light.' The hopes of Mr Dombey for the future of his shipping firm are centred on his delicate son Paul, and Florence, his devoted daughter, is unloved and neglected. When the firm faces ruin, and Dombey's second marriage ends in disaster, only Florence has the strength and humanity to save her father from desolate solitude. This new edition contains Dickens's prefaces, his working plans, and all the original illustrations by ‘Phiz’. The text is that of the definitive Clarendon edition. It has been supplemented by a wide-ranging Introduction, highlighting Dickens's engagement with his times, and the touching exploration of family relationships which give the novel added depth and relevance.



2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. P. Li

Energy-efficient processing of TiB compound with nanowhiskers by micropyretic synthesis is investigated in this paper. Micropyretic synthesis not only offers shorter processing time but also excludes the requirement for high-temperature sintering and it is considered as the one of the novel energy-saving processing techniques. Experimental study and numerical simulation are both carried out to investigate the correlation of the processing parameters on the microstructures of the micropyretically synthesized products. The diffusion-controlled reaction mechanism is proposed in this study. It is noted that nanosize TiB whiskers only occurred when the combustion temperature is lower than the melting point of TiB but higher than the extinguished temperature. The results generated in the numerical calculation can be used as a helpful reference to select the proper route of processing nanosize materials. The Arrhenius-type plot of size and temperature is used to calculate the activation energy of TiB reaction. In addition to verifying the accuracy of the experimental measures, the reaction temperature for producing the micropyretically synthesized products with nanofeatures can be predicted.



PMLA ◽  
1967 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Leon F. Seltzer

In recent years, The Confidence-Man: His Masquerade, a difficult work and for long an unjustly neglected one, has begun to command increasingly greater critical attention and esteem. As more than one contemporary writer has noted, the verdict of the late Richard Chase in 1949, that the novel represents Melville's “second best achievement,” has served to prompt many to undertake a second reading (or at least a first) of the book. Before this time, the novel had traditionally been the one Melville readers have shied away from—as overly discursive, too rambling altogether, on the one hand, or as an unfortunate outgrowth of the author's morbidity on the other. Elizabeth Foster, in the admirably comprehensive introduction to her valuable edition of The Confidence-Man (1954), systematically traces the history of the book's reputation and observes that even with the Melville renaissance of the twenties, the work stands as the last piece of the author's fiction to be redeemed. Only lately, she comments, has it ceased to be regarded as “the ugly duckling” of Melville's creations. But recognition does not imply agreement, and it should not be thought that in the past fifteen years critics have reached any sort of unanimity on the novel's content. Since Mr. Chase's study, which approached the puzzling work as a satire on the American spirit—or, more specifically, as an attack on the liberalism of the day—and which speculated upon the novel's controlling folk and mythic figures, other critics, by now ready to assume that the book repaid careful analysis, have read the work in a variety of ways. It has been treated, among other things, as a religious allegory, as a philosophic satire on optimism, and as a Shandian comedy. One critic has conveniently summarized the prevailing situation by remarking that “the literary, philosophical, and cultural materials in this book are fused in so enigmatic a fashion that its interpreters have differed as to what the book is really about.”



Behaviour ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 119 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyra Garnetzke-Stollmann ◽  
Dierk Franck

AbstractSpectacled parrotlets live in a complex system of individual relationships throughout their lives. The adults form exclusive pair bonds, addressing all friendly and sexual behaviour patterns to each other. Pair mates cooperate in agonistic situations. As long as they stay close together they hold the same rank-order position. In mate-choice experiments females (not males) significantly preferred a mate which formerly held a high social position. There are also non-exclusive pair bonds, which are far less stable than exclusive ones. Only exclusive pairs have a good chance to occupy a breeding cavity. All group members are synchronized in many of their activities, such as foraging, preening or resting. They are keenly interested in unusual activities of other group members. Social learning, including copying sexual techniques, seems to be essential. After fledging the parents keep their offspring at a distance from a very early stage. Instead of a close parent-offspring relationship the fledglings form sibling groups with their nest mates. Over a period of months siblings remain the main interaction partners for all friendly and playful activities. They also support one another in agonistic situations. In the first months of life even courtship feeding and sexual behaviour are addressed predominantly to siblings. Thus a pair-like relationship is established between siblings, anticipating the permanent pair bond of adults. Single fledglings, deprived of the experience of a sibling group, remained poorly integrated into the group. They developed alternative socialisation tactics, namely (1) joining a host group of unrelated siblings, (2) renewing a friendly partnership with the parents, (3) helping to protect and feed younger siblings or even unrelated fledglings and (4) seeking early partnership with unrelated group members. Out of 10 single fledglings only the one that was accepted by a host sibling group immediately after fledging became well integrated into the whole group and reproduced well. It is argued that sibling groups offer good opportunities for learning partnership and function as a safe basis for exploring the social environment. It is tentatively proposed that single fledglings have a decreased probability of reproductive success.



2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 205031212110083
Author(s):  
Omoleke Semeeh ◽  
Biniam Getachew ◽  
Yusuf Taofik ◽  
Lukman Surajudeen ◽  
Assad Hassan ◽  
...  

Introduction: In 2019, we investigated the profile of the cases and controls and the determinants of pertussis transmission in Kebbi State, Northwestern Nigeria, to inform better immunization and surveillance strategies. Methods: Community-based unmatched case–control study and review of the 2019 pertussis routine surveillance data in the affected settlements in the state were conducted. A total of 52 suspected cases of pertussis and 107 control from two local government areas in Kebbi State were recruited. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: The highest attack rate was observed among between 1- and 4-year age group followed by children less than 1-year old, and the least attack rate was among those above 15 years. The overall attack rate and the case fatality rate were 2.10% and 0.10%, respectively. A higher attack rate was observed among women, whereas the case fatality rate was more among males. From the community survey, we observed that the cases were less likely to have pertussis vaccination history (adjusted odds ratio = 0.28, 95% confidence interval = 0.11–0.74) compared with the controls. Knowing pertussis prevention methods were found protective for pertussis transmission (adjusted odds ratio = 0.14, 95% confidence interval = 0.04–0.45). Conclusion: This study showed the vulnerability of children under 5 years, especially under 1 year, to vaccine-preventable diseases in rural populations, where “real” immunization coverage is sub-optimal, and the dominant socio-demographic factors are supportive of disease transmission. We found immunization and knowledge of the preventive measures to be protective against pertussis outbreaks. Therefore, routine immunization services must be intensified to improve coverage and prevent future pertussis outbreak(s).



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