Sustaining Natural Change

2020 ◽  
pp. 18-36
Author(s):  
F Stuart Chapin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Extraction ◽  
Disturbance Regime ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Future ◽  
Natural Change

This chapter describes foundations for ecosystem sustainability and ways that society can foster these conditions. The road to “human progress” is littered with environmental mishaps and disasters—largely the result of excessive resource extraction. Over the long term, however, ecosystems can be sustained by maintaining the factors that shape their properties. These include soils that supply plants with nutrients, climate, regional flora and fauna, disturbance regime, and time. This formula provides a framework for understanding why every ecosystem occurs where it does and why and how it might change in the future. When society fails to sustain these foundations, new ecological forces, such as climate change, begin to dominate ecological and societal outcomes. Alternatively, society can shape pathways that maintain these foundations through landscape stewardship. People then interact with nature in ways that protect the foundations of ecosystems and provide society with livelihoods.

Projecting conflict risk following the Shared Socioeconomic pathways: what role for water stress and climate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie de Bruin ◽  
Jannis Hoch ◽  
Nina von Uexkull ◽  
Halvard Buhaug ◽  
Nico Wanders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
The Future ◽  
Conflict Risk

<p>The socioeconomic impacts of changes in climate-related and hydrology-related factors are increasingly acknowledged to affect the on-set of violent conflict. Full consensus upon the general mechanisms linking these factors with conflict is, however, still limited. The absence of full understanding of the non-linearities between all components and the lack of sufficient data make it therefore hard to address violent conflict risk on the long-term. </p><p>Although it is neither desirable nor feasible to make exact predictions, projections are a viable means to provide insights into potential future conflict risks and uncertainties thereof. Hence, making different projections is a legitimate way to deal with and understand these uncertainties, since the construction of diverse scenarios delivers insights into possible realizations of the future.  </p><p>Through machine learning techniques, we (re)assess the major drivers of conflict for the current situation in Africa, which are then applied to project the regions-at-risk following different scenarios. The model shows to accurately reproduce observed historic patterns leading to a high ROC score of 0.91. We show that socio-economic factors are most dominant when projecting conflicts over the African continent. The projections show that there is an overall reduction in conflict risk as a result of increased economic welfare that offsets the adverse impacts of climate change and hydrologic variables. It must be noted, however, that these projections are based on current relations. In case the relations of drivers and conflict change in the future, the resulting regions-at-risk may change too.   By identifying the most prominent drivers, conflict risk mitigation measures can be tuned more accurately to reduce the direct and indirect consequences of climate change on the population in Africa. As new and improved data becomes available, the model can be updated for more robust projections of conflict risk in Africa under climate change.</p>

scholarly journals A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

scholarly journals MODELLING LONG TERM IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION ON SHORE MORPHOLOGY OF NORTH NORFOLK, UK, COMBINING TOMAWAC AND SCAPE

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Chini ◽  
Peter Stansby ◽  
Mike Walkden ◽  
Jim Hall ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stationary Processes ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Future

Assessment of nearshore response to climatic change is an important issue for coastal management. To predict potential effects of climate change, a framework of numerical models has been implemented which enables the downscaling of global projections to an eroding coastline, based on TOMAWAC for inshore wave propagation input into SCAPE for shoreline modelling. With this framework, components of which have already been calibrated and validated, a set of consistent global climate change projections is used to estimate the future evolution of an un-engineered coastline. The response of the shoreline is sensitive to the future scenarios, underlying the need for long term large scale offshore conditions to be included in the prediction of non-stationary processes.

scholarly journals The future of the Western world: the OECD and the Interfutures project

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Andersson
Keyword(s):  
International Economic Order ◽  
World Market ◽  
Resource Extraction ◽  
Western World ◽  
Research Committee ◽  
Limits To Growth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Club Of Rome ◽  
Industrial Societies

AbstractIn 1975, the OECD created a research committee entitled ‘Interfutures. Research project into the development of the advanced industrial societies in harmony with the developing world’. The purpose of Interfutures was to examine how the new tools of futures research could be put to use in order to shape strategies for dealing with a new phenomenon of ‘interdependence’, and to set out a ‘long-term vision’ of the Western world. This article argues that Interfutures was appointed in order to draft an alternative image of the future to two radical visions of the early 1970s. The first was the so-called New International Economic Order. The second was the 1972 Club of Rome report,The limits to growth. As a response to these two visions, Interfutures presented a vision of globalization as a process oriented around an expanding world market, piloted by Western interests and continued resource extraction.

scholarly journals Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (23) ◽  
pp. 12915-12922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfram Barfuss ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Vítor V. Vasconcelos ◽  
Jürgen Kurths ◽  
Simon A. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Experimental Testing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The Impact

We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social–ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements.

Simulating the impact of future climate change on runoff processes in selected catchments of Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Kamila Hlavcova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>The future development of the runoff conditions, as a consequence of climate change, is of great interest for water managers. Information about the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection.</p><p>The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on the runoff regime in five selected catchments located in the territory of Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e., precipitation and air temperature) for future time horizons were prepared by a regional climate model KNMI using the A1B emission scenario. The selected climatic scenario predicts a general increase in air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). For simulations of runoff under changed conditions, a lumped rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model) was used. This model belongs to a group of conceptual models and follows a structure of a widely used Swedish HBV model. The TUW model was calibrated for the period of 2011 – 2019. We assumed that this period would be similar (to recent/warmer climate) in terms of the average daily air temperatures and daily precipitation totals. The future changes in runoff due to climate change were evaluated by comparing the simulated long-term mean monthly runoff for the current state (1981-2010) and modelled scenarios in three time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). The results indicate that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future. The runoff should increase in winter months compared to the reference period. This increase is probably related to a rise in temperature and anticipated snowmelt. Conversely, during the summer periods, a decrease in the long-term runoff could be assumed. According to modelling, these changes will be more pronounced in the later time horizons.</p><p>It should be noted that the results of the simulation are dependent on the availability of the inputs, the hydrological/climate model used, the schematization of the simulated processes, etc. Therefore, they need to be interpreted with a sufficient degree of caution</p>

Analysis of Ideal Directions of Climate Change Adaptation and Problems in Implementing Them for Local Japanese Governments

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 420-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuo Shirai ◽  
◽  
Mitsuru Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptive Governance ◽  
Subject Formation ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Research Level ◽  
The Future

Additional adaptation measures such as “basic improvement of sensitivity” and “adaptive governance against mid and long term impacts” are set as ideal directions for local governments. The study of the situations for implementing additional adaptation measures by local governments were determined by using checklists. It is clarified as a result that additional adaptation measures have not been considered enough. The following problems in implementing measures from the “Japan local Forum for Climate Change Adaptation Society” were found: (1) Prediction and evaluation of climate change impacts, (2) Concretization and evaluation of adaptation measures, (3) Communication and subject formation and (4) Implementation of the measures and preparation of conditions. In the future, it is necessary to concretize additional adaptation measures at the research level, to share these additional adaptation measures with concerned parties and to promote the exchange of opinions.

scholarly journals Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 4787-4843 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Marmy ◽  
J. Rajczak ◽  
R. Delaloye ◽  
C. Hilbich ◽  
M. Hoelzle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Calibration Method ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Automated Calibration ◽  
Mountain Permafrost ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which facilitate the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, a large number of local point data are necessary to obtain a broad overview of the thermal evolution of mountain permafrost over a larger area, such as the Swiss Alps, and the site-specific model calibration of each point would be time-consuming. To face this issue, this paper presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps prior to long-term permafrost evolution simulations. We show that this automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for RCM-based long-term simulations under the A1B climate scenario specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depths until the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites. The degradation is more rapid at bedrock sites whereas ice-rich sites with a blocky surface cover showed a reduced sensitivity to climate change. The snow cover duration is expected to be reduced drastically (between −20 to −37 %) impacting the ground thermal regime. However, the uncertainty range of permafrost projections is large, resulting mainly from the broad range of input climate data from the different GCM-RCM chains of the ENSEMBLES data set.

scholarly journals Future narratives for key sectors of the economy of the Murmansk region in the context of global changes in the Arctic

2017 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
E.M. Klyuchnikova ◽  
◽  
L.G. Isaeva ◽  
A.V. Masloboev ◽  
T.E. Alieva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Murmansk Region ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
The Future

This article presents forecast of the future development of the key industries of the Murmansk region under the climate change conditions, and developments that can be used as the background for discussing measures for adaptation to climate changes and producing long-term documents. We have revealed a wide range of scenarios to identify the uncertainties that the region will inevitably face and that should be taken into account when making decisions already now. We have used the forecasting method taking into account the two critical parameters: the climate change on the regional level and the global trends in the socio-economic development. The narratives from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been used as boundary conditions for creating scenarios of Murmansk region development. The local experts - representatives of industries, regional and local authorities, non-governmental and scientific organizations were involved in the forecasting process. The foresight research methodology was chosen because it is more than a long-term and strategic planning and forecasting corresponds to the social progress, in particular, the society democratization in its main areas: engaging citizens to managing the state affairs and creating conditions for manifestation of their initiatives. As a result, the issues of forecasting the future trends and challenges in the key sectors of the economy of the Arctic under the changing climate, depending on the forecast global development trends were considered. The necessity of using a structured, coherent to the global trends approach to working out regional and corporate development strategies is substantiated. On the example of the Murmansk region, the possible scenarios of development of the mining industry, and energy and human potentials depending on the global changes, including the climate change are considered.

scholarly journals The Geospatial Understanding of Climate-Smart Agriculture and REDD+ Implementation: Indian Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-87
Author(s):  
Firoz Ahmad ◽  
Asim Farooq ◽  
Laxmi Goparaju ◽  
Javed Rizvi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Negative Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Smart Agriculture ◽  
Drought Prone Area

AbstractGeospatial technology has an enormous capacity to analyze large and diversified datasets for evaluating the hidden spatial relationship which provides a better comprehension of the subject and helps significantly in policymaking and planning future strategies.This study has examined the relationship among diversified remote sensing and GIS datasets such as GHG emission from cropland, rice cultivation area, agro-ecological region, Land use/Land cover (LULC) categories, long-term NDVI (1982−2006) based negative changes, agriculture vulnerability, drought-prone area and future (2021, 2050) climate change anomalies (RCP-6) of India for better understanding and knowledge of the GHG emission scenario, vegetation health, LULC, agriculture vulnerability, and future climate change impact. The LULC analysis revealed that 49.6% (1 628 959 km²) of the geographical area was found to be under category ‘cropland’. The 32.5% of the total cropland areas are used for rice cultivation whereas around 76% of this rice cultivation area is producing high GHG emission (>1000 Mg CO2 e/yr.). LULC categories ‘Cropland’ and ‘Plantation’ show the long-term (1982−2006) negative change equivalent to 19.7 and 70.2% respectively. Similarly, around 56% of LULC categories representing the forest show the long-term negative change whereas the maximum change (139 867 km²) was found in the category of ‘Deciduous Broadleaf Forest’. The 30.6% of the LULC category of ‘cropland’ falls in very high agriculture vulnerable areas whereas 31.7% of the same category falls in the drought-prone area. The significant increase in temperature and abrupt rainfall patterns were observed during Kharif and Rabi seasons in the future. Such variation of climate parameter in the future not only adversely affect the agriculture crop production but also the natural vegetation of India.The outcomes of the present study would support the policymakers of India to implement the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and REDD+ on an urgent priority based on a proper evaluation of the socio-economic condition of the poor people. It will certainly help in the reduction of GHG emission, forest amelioration, will bring the resilience in livelihood and mitigate the poverty among the rural communities for the betterment of people.

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