Business as Usual: What Are the Costs?

2019 ◽  
pp. 23-34
Author(s):  
Gilbert E. Metcalf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Face ◽  
Pascal’S Wager ◽  
Business As Usual

This chapter describes the additional damages we will face if we don’t cut our carbon pollution. More frequent occurrences of extreme weather will cause more damages. We will also have to pay for stronger climate-proof infrastructure to adapt to new weather conditions and change our lifestyles to stay out of harm’s way. The chapter also addresses the uncertainties of climate change and suggests a way for climate skeptics to think about climate change. The example of Pascal’s Wager is used to illustrate why it is riskier not to act on climate change even in the face of uncertainty about the magnitude of the damages.

scholarly journals Overheating Risk and Energy Demand of Nordic Old and New Apartment Buildings during Average and Extreme Weather Conditions under a Changing Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 3972
Author(s):  
Azin Velashjerdi Farahani ◽  
Juha Jokisalo ◽  
Natalia Korhonen ◽  
Kirsti Jylhä ◽  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Living Room ◽  
Extra Energy ◽  
Cooling Unit ◽  
Indoor Conditions

The global average air temperature is increasing as a manifestation of climate change and more intense and frequent heatwaves are expected to be associated with this rise worldwide, including northern Europe. Summertime indoor conditions in residential buildings and the health of occupants are influenced by climate change, particularly if no mechanical cooling is used. The energy use of buildings contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. It is, therefore, necessary to analyze the effects of climate change on the overheating risk and energy demand of residential buildings and to assess the efficiency of various measures to alleviate the overheating. In this study, simulations of dynamic energy and indoor conditions in a new and an old apartment building are performed using two climate scenarios for southern Finland, one for average and the other for extreme weather conditions in 2050. The evaluated measures against overheating included orientations, blinds, site shading, window properties, openable windows, the split cooling unit, and the ventilation cooling and ventilation boost. In both buildings, the overheating risk is high in the current and projected future average climate and, in particular, during exceptionally hot summers. The indoor conditions are occasionally even injurious for the health of occupants. The openable windows and ventilation cooling with ventilation boost were effective in improving the indoor conditions, during both current and future average and extreme weather conditions. However, the split cooling unit installed in the living room was the only studied solution able to completely prevent overheating in all the spaces with a fairly small amount of extra energy usage.

scholarly journals Financial Stability and Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-43
Author(s):  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractFighting climate change is one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century. Climate change that leads to global warming has been increasingly visible in our environment. Extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts have been escalating and their acceleration can be expected in the future. They cause changes in sea levels, epidemics, large fires, etc. Increasingly, we are witnessing minor or major damage caused by these extreme weather conditions. Numerous studies have proven that climate change has negative impact on economic growth and prosperity. However, this paper starts from the premise that in addition to unequivocally identified threats, climate change also creates opportunities.The paper reaches a conclusion that climate change can adversely affect balance sheets of financial institutions. Therefore, climate change is a source of financial risk and thus a part of the mandate of central banks and supervisors in preserving financial stability. This type of risk has not been given enough attention by either supervisors or financial institutions over the past period. This paper develops a model for managing financial risks as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

scholarly journals Fishers’ resilience towards extreme weather conditions in the South China Sea: A case study of Natuna Islands, Indonesia

Omni-Akuatika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Rani Hafsaridewi ◽  
Hikmah Hikmah ◽  
Armen Zulham ◽  
Permana Ari Soejarwo ◽  
Bayu Vita Indah Yanti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Fish Distribution ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Weather Changes

Factors influencing fishers’ lives are climate change and extreme change in local weather. Climate change and extreme weather conditions are expected to affect marine fisheries’ productivity and modify fish distribution because of changes in water temperature, ocean currents, and other oceanic conditions. Both are issues faced by fishers in Natuna. The purpose of this study was to identify climate and weather changes in the research location, investigate the socio-economic effects, and analyse fishers’ adaptability patterns in relation to climate change. The method used in this study includes surveys, questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions. The results reveal climate change, and extreme weather affects the socio-economic dynamics of fishers in the Natuna Islands. The socio-economic dynamics as fishers’ resilience towards extreme climate are done by adjusting the number of workers and workforce, adjusting the size of fishing boats/ships, adjusting the composition of fishing gears, and changing fishing grounds. Keywords: Resilience, fishermen, climate change, Natuna, South China Sea

scholarly journals Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (s1) ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
Adrián Varga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Stress ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indicator ◽  
The Times ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract We live in the times of climate change when global temperatures are constantly rising. The impacts of climate change will also be felt in agriculture in Slovakia: increased productivity and yields in colder areas, reduced production in warmer areas due to temperature stress, risk of erosion as a result of more extreme weather conditions (stronger winds, more intense precipitation), the occurrence of new pests etc. Hence, we should be prepared for adaptation measures that would help mitigate it. The aim of this paper is to present the impacts of climate change on agriculture and land, and to offer adaptation measures, and show the prognosis of the climate indicator Ts >10 °C from now until 2100.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather and the Reproductive Success of a Long-lived Pelagic Seabird.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Bryony Baker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Fledging Success ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Manx Shearwater

Seabirds are in decline globally and climate change is likely to increase the pressure on already struggling species. The indirect effects of climate change are widely studied, they have been shown to have a significant effect on both seabird survival and reproductive success, but the direct effects are less well understood. Climate predictions suggest that one of the direct effects, extreme weather, is predicted to increase in both frequency and intensity. Skomer Island is the largest Manx Shearwater colony in the world and the population has been increasing over recent decades, but the specific effects of extreme weather on reproductive success are unknown. This study compared the effects of average and extreme weather conditions on Manx Shearwater reproductive success, taking into account the effect of known breeding pairs and the potential effects of individual experience. It also considered the effect of inter-specific competition between shearwaters and Atlantic puffins on shearwater reproductive success. This study found that colony-level reproductive success showed no significant trend over the study period of 1995-2019, however fledging success showed a significant decline. When individual-level analysis was carried out no such trend was found: experienced breeders may be more likely to successfully raise a chick. Extreme weather was shown to have significant effects on reproductive success at the individual-level, particularly on fledging success, but this did not cause a significant decrease in fledging success over the study period. Population estimates show that shearwaters are increasing on Skomer and it is clear that weather, extreme or not, is not currently the most significant factor in determining reproductive success of Manx Shearwaters. This study also found no evidence that puffins are influencing the reproductive success of Manx Shearwaters on Skomer Island. The effects of climate change, indirect and direct, will interact and have many complex effects, especially if predictions regarding future climate change are met. Extreme weather and the effects of demography can only be studied where long- term datasets exist, therefore projects such as this are vital for ongoing seabird research and conservation.

Urban-rural contrasts and extreme weather conditions in regional climate change projections across spatial and temporal scales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales. </p>

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