Discovering Natural Assets
Natural assets are living dangerously: lacking natural owners they are liable to be plundered. Since mankind has had a long time in which to plunder, those depleting natural assets that are still around are there because they are difficult to extract. They lie beneath the earth, hence why they are called “subsoil assets.” Where are they? The world currently consists of 194 nation states, which can conveniently be grouped, as we’ve seen, into four roughly equal quadrants: the rich countries of the OECD; the countries of the bottom billion; Russia and China with their satellites; and the emerging market economies, such as India and Brazil. Each group occupies around a quarter of the planet’s land surface area. Occasionally national borders have been determined by the presence of subsoil assets. British colonial pioneers, for example, got wind of the existence of deposits of copper in central Africa and so pushed a railway line northward from South Africa. They found the copper belt in what is now Zambia. Having pushed over two thousand miles, however, they missed by some thirty the far richer copper deposits that now lie in the southeast corner of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. But usually, national borders do not reflect the endowments of subsoil assets to any significant degree. It would therefore be reasonable to regard subsoil assets as being randomly distributed between countries. Further, countries in the four groups are scattered across the planet. Although each group adds up to around a quarter of the planet’s total land area, it does not literally make up a quadrant, a neat quarter-slice out of a global orange. Since subsoil assets are randomly distributed among the 194 countries, and each of the four groups of countries is fairly randomly distributed around the earth, we might expect the law of large numbers to even out the distribution of subsoil assets among the groups. That is, while the random distribution over the 194 countries is likely to produce some spectacular differences between lucky and unlucky countries, by the time we have aggregated them into four massive groups the remaining differences should be much smaller.