scholarly journals Which Elections Can Be Lost?

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan D. Hyde ◽  
Nikolay Marinov
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Full Range ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Research Agendas ◽  
Global Data ◽  
Empirical Illustration

The concept of electoral competition is relevant to a variety of research agendas in political science, yet the question of how to measure electoral competition has received little direct attention. We revisit the distinction proposed by Giovanni Sartori between competition as a structure or rule of the game and competitiveness as an outcome of that game and argue that to understand which elections can be lost (and therefore when parties and leaders are potentially threatened by electoral accountability), scholars may be better off considering the full range of elections where competition is allowed. We provide a data set of all national elections between 1945 and 2006 and a measure of whether each election event is structured such that the competition is possible. We outline the pitfalls of other measures used by scholars to define the potential for electoral competition and show that such methods can lead to biased or incomplete findings. The new global data on elections and the minimal conditions necessary for electoral competition are introduced, followed by an empirical illustration of the differences between the proposed measure of competition and existing methods used to infer the existence of competition.

scholarly journals Good riddance to bad government? Institutional performance voting in Swedish municipalities

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Rasmus Broms
Keyword(s):  
Full Range ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
Institutional Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
Limited Support ◽  
Audit Reports

Abstract Electoral accountability is widely considered to be an essential component for maintaining the quality of a polity’s institutions. Nevertheless, a growing body of research has found weak or limited support for the notion that voters punish political corruption, a central but partial aspect of institutional quality. In order to capture the full range of institutional dysfunction an electorate should be incentivised to punish, I further the concept of institutional performance voting, that is, voting on institutional quality as a whole. Using a novel data set on performance audit reports in Swedish municipalities between 2003 and 2014, I find that audit critique is associated with a statistically significant but substantively moderate electoral loss of about a percentage point for mayoral parties, while simultaneously associated with a 14 percentage point decrease in their probability of reelection.

scholarly journals Mediating distributive politics: political alignment and electoral business cycle effects on municipality financing in Greece

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Kitsos ◽  
Antonios Proestakis
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Resource Misallocation ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Political Alignment

AbstractWe examine the role of political alignment and the electoral business cycle on municipality revenues in Greece for the period 2003–2010. The misallocation of resources for political gain represents a waste of resources with significant negative effects on local growth and effective decentralization. The focus of our analysis is municipality mayors since they mediate the relationship between central government and voters and hence can influence the effectiveness of any potential pork-barrelling activity. A novel panel data set combining the results of two local and three national elections with annual municipality budgets is used to run a fixed-effects econometric model. This allows us to identify whether the political alignment between mayors and central government affects municipality financing. We examine this at different stages of local and national electoral cycles, investigating both direct intergovernmental transfers (grants) and the remaining sources of local revenues (own revenues, loans). We find that total revenues are significantly higher for aligned municipalities in the run-up to elections due to higher intergovernmental transfers. We also find evidence that the 2008 crisis has reduced such pork-barrelling activity. This significant resource misallocation increases vertical networking dependency and calls for policy changes promoting greater decentralization and encouraging innovation in local revenue raising.

Für Wetter und Klima – Maritim-Meteorologische Observationen beim DWD

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Andersson ◽  
Henry Kleta ◽  
Hildrun Otten-Balaccanu ◽  
Thomas Möller
Keyword(s):  
Wird Eine ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Global Data

<p>Die Erfassung und Überwachung des Wetters und des Klimas auf den Weltmeeren hat eine lange Tradition beim Deutschen Wetterdienst (DWD) und seinen Vorgängerorganisationen in Hamburg. Seit dem 19. Jahrhundert werden auf Schiffen systematisch meteorologische und ozeanographische Informationen gesammelt, die ein detailliertes Verständnis des maritimen Wetters und des Klimas ermöglichen. Bis heute sind die meteorologischen Schiffsbeobachtungen eine wichtige Datenquelle für die Wettervorhersage und die Klimaüberwachung.</p> <p>Der Deutsche Wetterdienst betreibt ein großes meteorologisches maritimes Messnetz, welches mehr als 500 Schiffe umfasst, die regelmäßig Wetterbeobachtungen auf allen Weltmeeren durchführen. Diese Schiffe beteiligen sich am internationalen <em>Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) Scheme</em> und ihre Beobachtungen werden in Echtzeit über das globale Telekommunikationssystem (GTS) der WMO verbreitet. Dabei wird eine zunehmende Anzahl von Beobachtungen von automatischen Wetterstationen an Bord von Schiffen geliefert.</p> <p>Neben der Nutzung für die operationelle Wettervorhersage sind die maritim-meteorologischen Observationen ein wichtiger Beitrag zu klimatologischen Archiven wie der In-situ Datenbank des maritimen Klimadatenzentrums des DWD. Diese Datenbank besteht aus qualitätskontrollierten Daten aus Echtzeit- und <em>delayed mode</em> Datenströmen, sowie aus einer großen Menge historischer Daten. Der Datenbestand wächst kontinuierlich durch aktuelle operationelle Dateneingänge, aber auch durch die Digitalisierung alter meteorologischer Schiffsjournale und reicht von heute bis weit zurück in das 19 Jahrhundert. Im Rahmen des internationalen Datenaustauschs über die WMO / IOC <em>VOS Global Data Assembly Centres</em> (GDACs) werden die maritimen Klimadaten regelmäßig in den <em>International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set</em> (ICOADS) integriert. Des Weiteren werden die Daten für eine Vielzahl von Klimaanwendungen verwendet, z.B. als Input für Reanalysen, für die operationelle Klimaüberwachung, klimatologische Analysen und Datenprodukte, sowie für die Kalibrierung von Satellitenbeobachtungen.</p>

The NOVAC database of volcanic SO2 emissions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Galle ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sulphur Dioxide ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Volcanic Gas ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
First Time ◽  
Global Data ◽  
Web Repository ◽  
The Web

<p>We present a detailed global data-set of volcanic sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions during the period 2005-2017. Measurements were obtained by scanning-DOAS instruments of the NOVAC network at 32 volcanoes, and processed using a standardized procedure. We reveal the daily statistics of volcanic gas emissions under a variety of volcanological and meteorological conditions. Data from several volcanoes are presented for the first time. Our results  are compared with yearly averages derived from measurements from space by the Aura/OMI instrument and with historical inventories of GEIA. This comparison shows some interesting differences which reasons are briefly discussed. Data is openly available through the web repository at https://novac.chalmers.se/.</p>

scholarly journals The SISAL database: a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt ◽  
Laia Comas-Bru ◽  
Sahar Amirnezhad Mozhdehi ◽  
Michael Deininger ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Working Group ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Oxygen And Carbon Isotope ◽  
Cave System ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Age Model

Abstract. Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide “out-of-sample” evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (δ18O, δ13C) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or youngest part of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information about the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information about the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data. The compiled data are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.17864/1947.139.

Ideologically Structured Action: An Enlarged Agenda for Social Movement Research

2000 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mayer Zald
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Cognitive Components ◽  
Open Research ◽  
Research Agendas ◽  
Bureaucratic Agencies ◽  
Legislative Processes

The conceptual definitions we use in social science often need adjusting to allow scholars to hone in on issues that are obscured under other definitions and to open research agendas. Here it is argued that a focus upon social movements as ideologically structured action accomplishes two objectives. First, it allows us to incorporate cultural/cognitive components of action into our core definition. Second, it helps us to broaden our research agenda to include a deeper and fuller view of socialization to social movement ideology and to social movement-related action that takes place in a variety of institutional arenas, including electoral competition, legislative processes, bureaucratic agencies, and executive ojfces.

scholarly journals Invalid Ballots and Electoral Competition

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gani Aldashev ◽  
Giovanni Mastrobuoni
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Rational Allocation ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
High Share

In close elections, a sufficiently high share of invalid ballots—if driven by voter mistakes or electoral fraud—can jeopardize the electoral outcome. We study how the closeness of electoral race relates to the share of invalid ballots, under the traditional paper-ballot hand-counted voting technology. Using a large micro-level data set from the Italian parliamentary elections in 1994–2001, we find a strong robust negative relationship between the margin of victory of the leading candidate over the nearest rival and the share of invalid ballots. We argue that this relationship is not driven by voter mistakes, protest, or electoral fraud. The explanation that garners most support is that of rational allocation of effort by election officers and party representatives, with higher rates ofdetectionof invalid ballots in close elections.

Census Enumeration and Group Conflict

2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Lieberman ◽  
Prerna Singh
Keyword(s):  
Social Identity ◽  
Intergroup Relations ◽  
Religious Conflict ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Data ◽  
Cross National

Does the enumeration of ethnic, racial, and/or religious categories on national household censuses increase the likelihood of conflict? The authors propose a theory of intergroup relations that emphasizes the conflictual effects of institutionalizing boundaries between social identity groups. The article investigates the relationship between counting and various forms of conflict with an original, global data set that classifies the type of enumeration used in more than one thousand census questionnaires in more than 150 countries spanning more than two centuries. Through a series of cross-national statistical analyses, the authors find a robust association between enumeration of ethnic cleavages on the census and various forms of competition and conflict, including violent ethnic civil war. The plausibility of the theory is further demonstrated through case study analysis of religious conflict in India.

Ability of Vis-PIR spectroscopy to monitor changes in organic carbon of loamy soils at two depths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayfa Zayani ◽  
Youssef Fouad ◽  
Didier Michot ◽  
Zeineb Kassouk ◽  
Zohra Lili-Chabaane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Near Infrared ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Nir Spectroscopy ◽  
Soil Samples ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
The Mean

<p>Visible-Near Infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy has proven its efficiency in predicting several soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) content. In this preliminary study, we explored the ability of Vis-NIR to assess the temporal evolution of SOC content. Soil samples were collected in a watershed (ORE AgrHys), located in Brittany (Western France). Two sampling campaigns were carried out 5 years apart: in 2013, 198 soil samples were collected respectively at two depths (0-15 and 15-25 cm) over an area of 1200 ha including different land use and land cover; in 2018, 111 sampling points out of 198 of 2013 were selected and soil samples were collected from the same two depths. Whole samples were analyzed for their SOC content and were scanned for their reflectance spectrum. Spectral information was acquired from samples sieved at 2 mm fraction and oven dried at 40°C, 24h prior to spectra acquisition, with a full range Vis-NIR spectroradiometer ASD Fieldspec®3. Data set of 2013 was used to calibrate the SOC content prediction model by the mean of Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR). Data set of 2018 was therefore used as test set. Our results showed that the variation ∆SOC<sub>obs</sub><sub></sub>obtained from observed values in 2013 and 2018 (∆SOC<sub>obs</sub> = Observed SOC (2018) - Observed SOC (2013)) is ranging from 0.1 to 25.9 g/kg. Moreover, our results showed that the prediction performance of the calibrated model was improved by including 11 spectra of 2018 in the 2013 calibration data set (R²= 0.87, RMSE = 5.1 g/kg and RPD = 1.92). Furthermore, the comparison of predicted and observed ∆SOC between 2018 and 2013 showed that 69% of the variations were of the same sign, either positive or negative. For the remaining 31%, the variations were of opposite signs but concerned mainly samples for which ∆SOCobs is less than 1,5 g/kg. These results reveal that Vis-NIR spectroscopy was potentially appropriate to detect variations of SOC content and are encouraging to further explore Vis-NIR spectroscopy to detect changes in soil carbon stocks.</p>

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