Optimal Timing of Policy Announcements in Dynamic Election Campaigns*

2020 ◽  
Vol 135 (3) ◽  
pp. 1725-1797
Author(s):  
Yuichiro Kamada ◽  
Takuo Sugaya
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Static Models ◽  
Long Time

Abstract We construct a dynamic model of election campaigns. In the model, opportunities for candidates to refine/clarify their policy positions are limited and arrive stochastically along the course of the campaign until the predetermined election date. We show that this simple friction leads to rich and subtle campaign dynamics. We first demonstrate these effects in a series of canonical static models of elections that we extend to dynamic settings, including models with valence and a multidimensional policy space. We then present general principles that underlie the results from those models. In particular, we establish that candidates spend a long time using ambiguous language during the election campaign in equilibrium.

scholarly journals Internal dosimetry in F-18 FDG PET examinations based on long-time-measured organ activities using total-body PET/CT: does it make any difference from a short-time measurement?

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengcheng Hu ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weihai Zhuo ◽  
Hui Tan ◽  
Tianwu Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Effective Dose ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Bladder Wall ◽  
Time Measurement ◽  
Post Injection ◽  
Time Activity ◽  
Pet Ct ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Total Body ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Purpose A 2-m axial field-of-view, total-body PET/CT scanner (uEXPLORER) has been recently developed to provide total-body coverage and ultra-high sensitivity, which together, enables opportunities for in vivo time-activity curve (TAC) measurement of all investigated organs simultaneously with high temporal resolution. This study aims at quantifying the cumulated activity and patient dose of 2-[F-18]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (F-18 FDG ) imaging by using delayed time-activity curves (TACs), measured out to 8-h post-injection, for different organs so that the comparison between quantifying approaches using short-time method (up to 75 min post-injection) or long-time method (up to 8 h post-injection) could be performed. Methods Organ TACs of 10 healthy volunteers were collected using total-body PET/CT in 4 periods after the intravenous injection of F-18 FDG. The 8-h post-injection TACs of 6 source organs were fitted using a spline method (based on Origin (version 8.1)). To compare with cumulated activity estimated from spline-fitted curves, the cumulated activity estimated from multi-exponential curve was also calculated. Exponential curve was fitted with shorter series of data consistent with clinical procedure and previous dosimetry works. An 8-h dynamic bladder wall dose model considering 2 voiding were employed to illustrate the differences in bladder wall dose caused by the different measurement durations. Organ absorbed doses were further estimated using Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) method and voxel phantoms. Results A short-time measurement could lead to significant bias in estimated cumulated activity for liver compared with long-time-measured spline fitted method, and the differences of cumulated activity were 18.38% on average. For the myocardium, the estimated cumulated activity difference was not statistically significant due to large variation in metabolism among individuals. The average residence time differences of brain, heart, kidney, liver, and lungs were 8.38%, 15.13%, 25.02%, 23.94%, and 16.50% between short-time and long-time methods. Regarding effective dose, the maximum differences of residence time between long-time-measured spline fitted curve and short-time-measured multi-exponential fitted curve was 9.93%. When using spline method, the bladder revealed the most difference in the effective dose among all the investigated organs with a bias up to 21.18%. The bladder wall dose calculated using a long-time dynamic model was 13.79% larger than the two-voiding dynamic model, and at least 50.17% lower than previous studies based on fixed bladder content volume. Conclusions Long-time measurement of multi-organ TACs with high temporal resolution enabled by a total-body PET/CT demonstrated that the clinical procedure with 20 min PET scan at 1 h after injection could be used for retrospective dosimetry analysis in most organs. As the bladder content contributed the most to the effective dose, a long-time dynamic model was recommended for the bladder wall dose estimation.

scholarly journals A New Approach for Allocating a New Party's Budget during an Election Campaign

PCD Journal ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-45
Author(s):  
Irit Talmor ◽  
Osnat Osnat Akirav
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Pareto Principle ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
New Parties ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Confidential Data ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Campaign Advertising

During pre-election campaigns, parties make great efforts to persuade constituents to vote for them. Usually, new parties have smaller budgets and fewer resources than veteran parties. Generally, the more heterogeneous the party’s electorate, the more critical the issue of resource allocation. This paper presents a method for new parties to efficiently allocate campaign advertising resources and maximise voters. The model developed uses the Pareto principle and multi-criteria approach, integrating the party’s confidential data together with official open-to-all data. We implemented the model on a specific new party during the intensive political period before the April 2019 elections in Israel, finding that the model produced clear and unbiased results, and this made it effective and user-friendly for strategy teams and campaign managers.

Free airtime of election committees in Poland compared with similar solutions in other countries. The attitude of Poles to free election broadcasts in the Polish public media

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-237
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Łukasik-Turecka
Keyword(s):  
Likert Scale ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Survey Questionnaire ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Appropriate Use ◽  
Research Results ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Media ◽  
Similar Solutions ◽  
The Right

The principle of equal electoral opportunities is implemented, inter alia, by allocating free airtime to political entities. In Poland, like in many other countries, the authorized committees have the right to use the public media’s airtime free of charge during election campaigns. The present article’s objective is to show the Polish solutions in this domain compared with the regulations in other countries and to present the research results and their analysis concerning Poles’ attitude to free election broadcasts – including their assessment of the broadcasts as a source of knowledge about candidates and parties taking part in the election campaign. The studies were carried out based on the survey questionnaire, which was compiled using the five-level Likert scale. The sample was selected by the stratifiedquota method (N = 971). The conclusions resulting from the survey suggest the need to retain the regulation that enables political entities in Poland to use free election broadcasts during election campaigns. At the same time, they point out that it is necessary to seek more advantageous forms and content to put airtime to appropriate use during the campaign period.

scholarly journals Urban Policy in Election Campaigns – The Case of the Presidents of the Biggest Cities of Lower Silesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
Kamil Glinka
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Urban Policy ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Marketing Activity ◽  
Marketing Actions ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Lower Silesia

Abstract The main aim of the article is to present the relationship between urban policy and the marketing activity of the presidents of Wrocław, Wałbrzych, Legnica, and Jelenia Góra during the period of the 2014 local government election campaign. Analysis of the marketing activity of the presidents, conducted via chosen social media, enables presentation of the most important conditions and reasons for using urban policy in the competition for the support of citizens – potential voters. First, it will show that the marketing actions of a president during an election campaign are not the means of creating the image of a city but gaining the support of voters. Second, the analysis will prove that the election message constructed by presidents is based on the actions conducted in the various areas of urban policy.

scholarly journals ‘The enemy within’: Campaign attention and motivated reasoning in voter perceptions of intra-party conflict

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882090640
Author(s):  
Carolina Plescia ◽  
Sylvia Kritzinger ◽  
Jakob-Moritz Eberl
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Party Strategies ◽  
Voter Perceptions ◽  
Broad Interest ◽  
Over Time

In spite of broad interest in internal party dynamics, with previous literature relatedly demonstrating that voters are not oblivious to party infighting, very little attention has been paid to the antecedents of voter perceptions of intra-party conflict. This article addresses this research deficit with the support of empirical evidence gathered over the course of the 2017 Austrian national election campaign. The study examines variations in perceived intra-party conflict over time, both across parties and within the same party. We find that although voter perceptions largely mirror actual distinctions in intra-party fighting, conspicuous individual-level variations can also be identified owing to attention to the election campaign and motivated reasoning in information processing. These results have important consequences for our understanding of voter perceptions of intra-party conflict and the role of election campaigns, with potential implications for party strategies during election campaigns.

Bicameralism and Party Politics in Germany: An Empirical Social Choice Analysis

2001 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 411-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas König
Keyword(s):  
Social Choice ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Nash Solution ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Choice Analysis ◽  
Policy Stability

This paper analyses whether and how party politics transform German bicameralism. Based on the policy positions of bicameral legislators, the study computes the win sets, the yolks of each chamber and a Nash solution in order to analyse empirically the effects of party politics on German bicameralism. In comparison to the basic bicameral model, hypotheses on bicameral conflict and policy stability are tested in the case of similar and different party majorities in the two-dimensional policy space of German labour politics. The results show that party politics transform German bicameralism in two ways. Similar majorities collapse bicameral checks-and-balances, while different party majorities come close to the basic bicameral model with high policy stability and conflict between both chambers.

Engendering Bilateralism: An Exploration of Possible Sources of Non-Centrism in Government Formation

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (04) ◽  
pp. 699-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul V. Warwick
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
The Real ◽  
Potential Impact

This paper seeks to identify factors that may lie behind the tendency for parliamentary governments to form primarily from one side of the left-right spectrum and to adopt non-centrist policy positions. Because of measurement limitations as well as the inherent complexity of the processes involved, this exploration is undertaken through simulation experiments. The new software created for these experiments allows the potential impact of a wide variety of factors, including voter and party motivations and distributions, policy space dimensionality, and constraints on government formation, to be assessed. Although the results cannot tell us what fosters non-centrism in the real world, they do reveal some factors that appear to be conducive to that end and thus serve as a guide to further research on this neglected topic.

scholarly journals Issue Engagement in Election Campaigns The Impact of Electoral Incentives and Organizational Constraints

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 555-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Meyer ◽  
Markus Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Press Releases ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Electoral Incentives ◽  
Democratic Quality ◽  
Organizational Constraints ◽  
The Impact

It is easier for voters to make informed electoral choices when parties talk about the same issues. Yet, parties may decide against such “issue engagement.” We hypothesize that issue engagement between parties is more likely (a) when the similarity of their policy positions means that both parties have clearelectoral incentivesto talk about the same topics and (b) when parties face feworganizational constraintsin terms of campaign resources. Our empirical analysis of 2453 press releases by Austrian parties shows that ideological proximity and party resources affect the level of issue engagement. These findings suggest that issue engagement is less likely precisely where it is needed most, which has important implications for understanding the democratic quality of election campaigns.

scholarly journals MEANS OF SPEECH AGRESSIVENESS IN AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-507
Author(s):  
E.V. Krasnoperova
Keyword(s):  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Negative Information ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
The Government

The article discusses means of expressing aggressiveness used in the newspaper “LDPR in Udmurtia” during election campaigns. Despite a large number of implicit means that politicians and journalists are equipped with, the newspaper demonstrates explicit means of speech aggressiveness. The style of the publications is a replica of speech manner of the LDPR leader. One of the major ways of expressing negative assessment of political opponents is conversational and colloquial vocabulary of deflated style. The authors of this media tend to use phraseology with non-normative connotation. Expressive means used by journalists tend to sound negative and aim to discredit the existing power. To demonstrate negative attitude to the government a variety of stylistic means are used including repetitions, gradation, rhetoric questions, rhetoric exclamations and addressing. In the newspaper of the opposition party ethical and linguistic norms are broken, negative information disclosing situation in the country tend to form readers’ sense of frustration.

scholarly journals Electoral Campaign Financing and Criminal Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Brunela Kullolli
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Criminal Policy ◽  
Criminal Code ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Campaign Financing

In a democratic state, power is exercised by elected bodies through free and fair elections. The choice of the political class that will exercise political, economic, etc. power by the sovereign (the people) is one of the most important moments in the way how a state works.The sovereign and the expression of his will by voting for those to be elected to the governing or governing bodies. The first part will address and analyze the election campaign, the day of voting until the moment of the results, is the period when the sovereign exercises his power directly by voting which political class will lead the state.Political classes seeking to govern and govern governing bodies disclose their programs, their policies during the election campaign.Election campaigns in modern and capitalist society require funding as they are associated with costs, expenses. Election campaigns cannot be done without capital, without money. The second part will analyze the power of money in election campaigns is related to the expenses political parties or candidates make to their program, to disseminate their political and governing ideas, so money power is used to influence the sovereign to be informed on election day. who to vote for and who to choose in the governing bodies. The use of money in election campaigns forces a democratic state to set rules on how to finance, spend, etc., so setting rules such as how the power of money will affect election campaigns and their control by the responsible bodies.In a country with a fragile and transitional democracy such as the Albanian state, the control of money power during election campaigns is extremely difficult, however the manner of controlling election campaign financing is clearly defined in legislation. In this paper I will contribute by analyzing the impact of money on the Albanian state policy, first in terms of electoral financing, financing of political parties and individuals in electoral campaigns In this paper I will address and analyze how money affects constitutional principles during election campaigns, how it affects the principles of free and fair elections. The third part will address and analyze how entities participating in electoral campaigns are financed.The use of illegal money during campaigns affects the violation of constitutional principles for free and fair elections.I will address and analyze the criminal policies in the field of illegal financing of electoral campaigns. The Criminal Code of the Republic of Albania in relation to free and fair elections. llegal financing of election campaigns is a current phenomenon of the Albanian society, bringing about the incrimination of Albanian politics.Illegal financing of entities participating in electoral campaigns comes from organized crime or suspects in criminal activities, and this brings about the establishment of those persons who protect the latter's interests and not the interests of the constituents or democratic interests of a state .Intensify the fight against illicit financing of electoral campaigns by creating not only a complete legal framework for preventing illicit financing but also creating practical mechanisms for not only law enforcement but also the practical prevention of uncontrolled funding of electoral subjects.Setting criminal penalties for illegal financing of electoral campaigns and revising the Criminal Code in incriminating all illegal financing actions that violate free and fair elections may be the most important step in the fight against illegal financing of electoral campaigns. Illegal financing of electoral campaigns in Albania calls for free and fair elections and questions the basic principles of the representation of political entities in governing institutions and therefore the interference in law and penal policy is current and immediate.

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