scholarly journals Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1899) ◽  
pp. 20190442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inger Maren Rivrud ◽  
Erling L. Meisingset ◽  
Leif Egil Loe ◽  
Atle Mysterud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Cervus Elaphus ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Winter Habitat ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Northern Distribution ◽  
Distribution Limits ◽  
Dimorphic Species

With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depends on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer ( Cervus elaphus ), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.

scholarly journals Long-term monitoring reveals topographical features and vegetation explain winter habitat use of an Arctic rodent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xaver von Beckerath ◽  
Gita Benadi ◽  
Olivier Gilg ◽  
Benoît Sittler ◽  
Glenn Yannic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Habitat Use ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Winter Habitat ◽  
Habitat Features ◽  
Terrestrial Vertebrates

AbstractCollapsing lemming cycles have been observed across the Arctic, presumably due to global warming creating less favorable winter conditions. The quality of wintering habitats, such as depth of snow cover, plays a key role in sustaining population dynamics of arctic lemmings. However, few studies so far investigated habitat use during the arctic winter. Here, we used a unique long-term time series to test whether lemmings are associated with topographical and vegetational habitat features for their winter refugi. We examined yearly numbers and distribution of 22,769 winter nests of the collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus from an ongoing long-term research on Traill Island, Northeast Greenland, collected between 1989 and 2019, and correlated this information with data on dominant vegetation types, elevation and slope. We specifically asked if lemming nests were more frequent at sites with preferred food plants such as Dryas octopetala x integrifolia and at sites with increased snow cover. We found that the number of lemming nests was highest in areas with a high proportion of Dryas heath, but also correlated with other vegetation types which suggest some flexibility in resource use of wintering lemmings. Conversely, they showed a distinct preference for sloped terrain, probably as it enhances the formation of deep snow drifts which increases the insulative characteristics of the snowpack and protection from predators. With global warming, prime lemming winter habitats may become scarce through alteration of snow physical properties, potentially resulting in negative consequence for the whole community of terrestrial vertebrates.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Political Preferences, Personality Traits, and Environmentalism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Soutter ◽  
René Mõttus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Personality Traits ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Environmental Attitudes ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Party Voting

Although the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change continues to grow, public discourse still reflects a high level of scepticism and political polarisation towards anthropogenic climate change. In this study (N = 499) we attempted to replicate and expand upon an earlier finding that environmental terminology (“climate change” versus “global warming”) could partly explain political polarisation in environmental scepticism (Schuldt, Konrath, & Schwarz, 2011). Participants completed a series of online questionnaires assessing personality traits, political preferences, belief in environmental phenomenon, and various pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours. Those with a Conservative political orientation and/or party voting believed less in both climate change and global warming compared to those with a Liberal orientation and/or party voting. Furthermore, there was an interaction between continuously measured political orientation, but not party voting, and question wording on beliefs in environmental phenomena. Personality traits did not confound these effects. Furthermore, continuously measured political orientation was associated with pro-environmental attitudes, after controlling for personality traits, age, gender, area lived in, income, and education. The personality domains of Openness, and Conscientiousness, were consistently associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours, whereas Agreeableness was associated with pro-environmental attitudes but not with behaviours. This study highlights the importance of examining personality traits and political preferences together and suggests ways in which policy interventions can best be optimised to account for these individual differences.

Graubündens Wald im Fokus | Focus on the Grisons forest

2009 ◽  
Vol 160 (7) ◽  
pp. 195-200
Author(s):  
Reto Hefti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Positive Attitude ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Intensive Use ◽  
Form Part ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
The Government

In the mountainous canton Grisons, much visited by tourists, the forest has always had an important role to play. New challenges are now presenting themselves. The article goes more closely into two themes on the Grisons forestry agenda dominating in the next few years: the increased use of timber and climate change. With the increased demand for logs and the new sawmill in Domat/Ems new opportunities are offered to the canton for more intensive use of the raw material, wood. This depends on a reduction in production costs and a positive attitude of the population towards the greater use of wood. A series of measures from the Grisons Forestry Department should be of help here. The risk of damage to infrastructure is particularly high in a mountainous canton. The cantonal government of the Grisons has commissioned the Forestry Department to define the situation concerning the possible consequences of global warming on natural hazards and to propose measures which may be taken. The setting up of extensive measurement and information systems, the elaboration of intervention maps, the estimation of the danger potential in exposed areas outside the building zone and the maintenance of existing protective constructions through the creation of a protective constructions register, all form part of the government programme for 2009 to 2012. In the Grisons, forest owners and visitors will have to become accustomed to the fact that their forests must again produce more wood and that, on account of global warming, protective forests will become even more important than they already are today.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Twitter Users’ Displays of Affect in the Global Warming Debate

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728162110078
Author(s):  
Shanna Cameron ◽  
Alexandra Russell ◽  
Luke Brake ◽  
Katherine Fredlund ◽  
Angela Morris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Technical Communication ◽  
Research Team ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Twitter Users

This article engages with recent discussions in the field of technical communication that call for climate change research that moves beyond the believer/denier dichotomy. For this study, our research team coded 900 tweets about climate change and global warming for different emotions in order to understand how Twitter users rely on affect rhetorically. Our findings use quantitative content analysis to challenge current assumptions about writing and affect on social media, and our results indicate a number of arenas for future research on affect, global warming, and rhetoric.

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