scholarly journals The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinhai Li ◽  
Xumao Zhao ◽  
Yuehua Sun
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractBackgroundAfter the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation.Methods and findingsWe used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 6±10 in Wuhan and March 20±16 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The number of confirmed cases in cities inside Hubei Province grow exponentially, whereas those in cities outside the province increase linearly.ConclusionsThe unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

scholarly journals Risk map of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China: proportionate control is needed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinhai Li ◽  
Xumao Zhao ◽  
Yingqiang Lou ◽  
Yuehua Sun
Keyword(s):  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
National Level ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractBackgroundChina is running a national level antivirus campaign against the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Strict control measures are being enforced in either the populated areas and remote regions. While the virus is closed to be under control, tremendous economic loss has been caused.Methods and findingsWe assessed the pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV for all cities/regions in China using the random forest algorithm, taking into account the effect of five factors: the accumulative and increased numbers of confirmed cases, total population, population density, and GDP. We defined four levels of the risk, corresponding to the four response levels to public health emergencies in China. The classification system has good consistency among cities in China, as the error rate of the confusion matrix is 1.58%.ConclusionsThe pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV is dramatically different among the 442 cities/regions. We recommend to adopt proportionate control policy according to the risk level to reduce unnecessary economic loss.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Its Regions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a small fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (19.5%; 95%CI=0%-34.7%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that the first set of restrictions reduced transmission rate in the community by 42% (95%CI=38%-46%), and that more stringent measures adopted on 23 March succeeded to drastically curb the transmission rate by 84% (95%CI=80%-88%). Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Further modeling after the adoption of control measures, moreover, indicated that restrictions reduced SARS-CoV2 transmission considerably.

scholarly journals A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Wang ◽  
Jingtao Qi
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

AbstractCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities took unprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading of the novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematical model based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolution of the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimate the basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March 19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming less than one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number of confirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Future Challenges and Recommendations for Dental Settings

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. RV1-RV5
Author(s):  
Najmus Sahar ◽  
Pradeep Tangade ◽  
Vikas Singh ◽  
Surbhi Priyadarshini ◽  
Debashis Roy
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Workers ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Review Article ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Practitioners ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus outbreak is a contagious disease affecting the countries around the world. The quick advancing nature of pandemic has gripped the entire community making it a public health emergency. Infection control preventive measures are necessary to prevent it from further spreading. Medical practitioners, health care workers and Dentists are at high risk of acquiring and transmission of infection. The virus transmission occurs through respiratory tract, aerosols and droplets. Clinical manifestations of virus vary from mild to severe sickness. This review article mainly emphasizes on all the information collected to date on the virus, and future recommendations for dental settings to manage the further spread of this virus.

scholarly journals Stepping up infection control measures in ophthalmology during the novel coronavirus outbreak: an experience from Hong Kong

2020 ◽  
Vol 258 (5) ◽  
pp. 1049-1055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy H. T. Lai ◽  
Emily W. H. Tang ◽  
Sandy K. Y. Chau ◽  
Kitty S. C. Fung ◽  
Kenneth K. W. Li
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in french overseas department Mayotte based on a modified deterministic and stochastic SEIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solym Mawaki Manou-Abi ◽  
Julien Balicchi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Rate Parameter ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Stochastic Epidemic ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Death Cases

AbstractIn order to anticipate a future trends in the development of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic started early at march 13, in the french overseas department Mayotte, we consider in this paper a modified deterministic and stochastic epidemic model. The model divides the total population into several possible states or compartment: susceptible (S), exposed (E) infected and being under an incubation period, infected (I) being infectious, simple or mild removed RM, severe removed (including hospitalized) RS and death cases (D). The adding of the two new compartment RM and RS are driven by data which together replace the original R compartment in the classical SEIR model.We first fit the constant transmission rate parameter to the epidemic data in Mayotte during an early exponential growth phase using an algorithm with a package of the software R and based on a Maximum Likewood estimator. This allows us to predict the epidemic without any control in order to understand how the control measure and public policies designed are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic. To do this, we introduce a temporally varying decreasing transmission rate parameter with a control or quarantine parameter q. Then we pointed out some values of q to maintain control which is critical in Mayotte given the fragility of its health infrastructure and the significant fraction of the population without access to water.

scholarly journals Brief Report of Guidelines and Protocols for the Management of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-133
Author(s):  
Fabricia Oliveira Oliveira ◽  
Larissa Moraes dos Santos Fonseca ◽  
Roberto Badaró ◽  
Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Data Flows ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Guidelines And Recommendations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coordinate Data

In less than a year, the novel coronavirus rapidly changed the world scenario. To dealing with the fast spread of the disease, health associations coordinate data flows and issue guidelines to better mitigate the impact of the threat. Also, scientific groups around the world are working to ensure that all information about the mechanisms of the virus, transmission, and disease clinics is updated as the disease progresses. The objective of this study was to present the guidelines and recommendations for preventing, management strategies, clarifications about pandemics disinformation, and diagnosing COVID-19 infection in human specimens adopted from the main health centers and institutions in the world, such as WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It is important to highlight that the rapid and effective enforcement of existing international and national action plans, as well as parallel review and improvisation, is facilitating the affected countries to contain transmission and possibly delay the peak of outbreak and mortality.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Diagnosis, Management and Response

2021 ◽  
pp. 161-170
Author(s):  
Ashwini Shalikrao Mhaske ◽  
Swaroopa Chakole
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Positive Patient ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Early Reaction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Predetermined Number

Background: COVID infection 2019 (COVID-19) is identified as a disease caused by Corona virus formally known as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2), which was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, amidst of an outbreak of respiratory sickness cases. Summary: As there is no affirmed total course of treatment for the Novel Coronavirus, the best way to handle it is by playing it safe, its administration and early reaction. Segregation and disinfection go inseparably with regards to dealing with a COVID positive patient. In any case, the predetermined number of clinical office accessible is blocking the cycle of control and anticipation for a particularly number of infected patients. Conclusion: As the pandemic is advancing, more examinations and exploration is needed to effectively deal with the spread of the novel Corona virus. Foundation improvement and arrangement of clinical office and gear is the preeminent prerequisite for early reaction and treatment.

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