scholarly journals Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Wenliang Lu ◽  
Xifei Yang ◽  
Peihua Feng ◽  
Ozarina Muqimova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Real World ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Design And Methods

AbstractBackgroud and ObjectiveTo predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model.Design and MethodsWe forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures.ResultsThe peak time of the curve for the infected newly diagnosed as COVID-19 should substantially present on Feb. 5, 2020 (in non-Hubei areas) and Feb. 19, 2020 (in Hubei). It is estimated that the peak of the curve of the cumulative confirmed cases will appear in non-Hubei areas on Mar. 3, 2020 and in Hubei province on Mar. 10, 2020, and the total number of the patients diagnosed as COVID-19 is 18,000 in non-Hubei areas and 78,000-96,000 in Hubei. The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completetly controlled in May, 2020.ConclusionsCOVID-19 is only a local outbreak in Hubei Province, China. It can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.

scholarly journals Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Burak Mat ◽  
Mehmet Saltuk Arikan ◽  
Ahmet Cumhur Akin ◽  
Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli ◽  
Harun Yonar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Losses

Abstract Background Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. Results Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. Conclusion Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.

A mathematical model of real-world object shape predicts human perceptual judgments

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caterina Magri ◽  
Andrew Marantan ◽  
L Mahadevan ◽  
Talia Konkle
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Real World ◽  
Object Shape ◽  
Perceptual Judgments

Forecast of COVID-19 Trend Following Countrywide Movement Control Order in Malaysia: SEIR Model Approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidalina Mahmud ◽  
Poh Ying Lim ◽  
Hayati Kadir Shahar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Infection Incidence ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Model Approach

BACKGROUND On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) to limit the contact rates among the population and infected individuals. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia in terms of its magnitude and duration. METHODS Data for this analysis was obtained from publicly available databases, from March 17 until March 27, 2020. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model and several predetermined assumptions, two analyses were carried out: without and with MCO implementation. RESULTS Without MCO, it is forecasted that it would take 18 days to reach the peak of infection incidence. The incidence rate would plateau at day 80 and end by day 94, with 43% of the exposed population infected. With the implementation of the MCO, it is forecasted that new cases of infection would peak at day 25, plateau at day 90 and end by day 100. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 40% of the exposed population. CONCLUSIONS It is forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia will subside soon after the mid-year of 2020. Although the implementation of MCO can flatten the epidemiological curve, it also prolongs the duration of the epidemic. The MCO can result in several unfavorable consequences in economic and psychosocial aspects. A future work of an exit plan for the MCO should also be devised and implemented gradually. The exit plan raises several timely issues of re-infection resurgence after MCO are lifted.

scholarly journals Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad R. Wells ◽  
Jeffrey P. Townsend ◽  
Abhishek Pandey ◽  
Seyed M. Moghadas ◽  
Gary Krieger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Real World ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Time Of Infection ◽  
Oil Rig ◽  
Offshore Oil

AbstractFor COVID-19, it is vital to understand if quarantines shorter than 14 days can be equally effective with judiciously deployed testing. Here, we develop a mathematical model that quantifies the probability of post-quarantine transmission incorporating testing into travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time of infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. We find that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortens quarantine by at most one day. In a real-world test of our theory applied to offshore oil rig employees, 47 positives were obtained with testing on entry and exit to quarantine, of which 16 had tested negative at entry; preventing an expected nine offshore transmission events that each could have led to outbreaks. We show that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines effective.

scholarly journals Generation of Alternative Battery Allocation Proposals in Distribution Systems by the Optimization of Different Economic Metrics within a Mathematical Model

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1726
Author(s):  
Norberto Martinez ◽  
Alejandra Tabares ◽  
John F. Franco
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Test System ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Voltage Profile ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Stochastic Variation ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Technical Operation

Battery systems bring technical and economic advantages to electrical distribution systems (EDSs), as they conveniently store the surplus of cheap renewable generation for use at a more convenient time and contribute to peak shaving. Due to the high cost of batteries, technical and economic studies are needed to evaluate their correct allocation within the EDS. To contribute to this analysis, this paper proposes a stochastic mathematical model for the optimal battery allocation (OBA), which can be guided by the optimization of two different economic metrics: net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). The effects of the OBA in the EDS are evaluated considering the stochastic variation of photovoltaic generation and load. Tests with the 33-node IEEE test system indicate that OBA results in voltage profile improvement (~1% at peak time), peak reduction (31.17%), increased photovoltaic hosting capacity (18.8%), and cost reduction (3.06%). Furthermore, it was found that the IRR metric leads to a different solution compared to the traditional NPV optimization due to its inherent consideration of the relation between cash flow and investment. Thus, both NPV and IRR-based allocation alternatives can be used by the decision maker to improve economic and technical operation of the EDS.

Real world heart failure epidemiology and outcome: a population-based analysis of 1,990,162 heart failure patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Leszek ◽  
M Zaleska-Kociecka ◽  
D Was ◽  
K Witczak ◽  
K Bartolik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Real World ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
The Real ◽  
Incidence Prevalence

Abstract Background Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in developed countries. Most of the information about HF is based on selected cohorts, the real epidemiology of HF is scarce. Purpose To assess trends in the real world incidence, prevalence and mortality of all in-and outpatients with HF who presented in public health system in 2009–2018 in Poland. Methods It is a retrospective analysis of 1,990,162 patients who presented with HF in Poland in years 2009–2018. It is a part of nationwide Polish Ministry of Health registry that collects detailed information for the entire Polish population (38,495,659 in 2013) since 2009. Detailed data within the registry were collected since 2013. HF was recorded if HF diagnosis was coded (ICD-10). Results The incidence of HF in Poland fell down from 2013 to reach 127,036 newly diagnosed cases (330 per 100,000 population) in 2018 that equals to 43.6% drop. This decrease was mainly driven by marked reduction in females (p<0.001; Fig. 1A) and HF of ischaemic etiology (HF-IE vs HF-nonIE, Fig. 1B. p<0.001). The HF incidence per 100,000 population decreased across all age groups with the greatest drop in the youngest (Table 1). The prevalence rose by 11.6% to reach 1,242,129 (3233 per 100,000 population) in 2018 with significantly greater increase in females and HF-IE (both p<0.0001, Fig. 1C and D, respectively). The HF prevalence per 100,000 population increased across all age groups except for the 70–79 years old. (Table 1). Mortality increased by 28.5% to reach 142,379 cases (370 per 100,000 population) in 2018. The rise was more pronounced among females (p=0.015, Fig. 1E) and in HF-IE (p<0.001, Fig. 1F). The HF mortality per 100 000 population increased across all age groups, except for the 50–59 subgroup (Table 1). Conclusions Heart failure incidence plummeted in years 2013–2018 in Poland due to drop in newly diagnosed HF-IE. Despite that fact, the prevalence and mortality increased with rising trends in HF-IE. Figure 1. Incidence, prevalence, mortality trends Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The project is co-financed by the European Union from the European Social Fund under the Operational Programme Knowledge Education Development and it is being carried out by the Analyses and Strategies Department of the Polish Ministry of Health

scholarly journals Characteristics of newly diagnosed COPD patients treated with triple inhaled therapy by general practitioners: a real world Italian study

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiano Di Marco ◽  
Pierachille Santus ◽  
Silvia Terraneo ◽  
Elena Peruzzi ◽  
Elisa Muscianisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Practitioners ◽  
Real World ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Italian Study ◽  
Copd Patients ◽  
Inhaled Therapy
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