scholarly journals Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Burak Mat ◽  
Mehmet Saltuk Arikan ◽  
Ahmet Cumhur Akin ◽  
Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli ◽  
Harun Yonar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Losses

Abstract Background Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. Results Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. Conclusion Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.

scholarly journals Assessment on Economic Losses due to Animal Health and Production Constraints in Jimma Town Intensive Dairy Farms, Jimma, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
pp. 52-60
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Dairy Farming ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Production Constraints ◽  
Milk Fever ◽  
Jimma Town

A single-visit-multiple subject formal survey technique was used to collect data from 75 small-scale dairy farming households which were selected at random and were interviewed using a pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. Seventy-three (97.3%) dairy farming was practiced under an intensive management system. Among the selected dairy farms, only (33.3%) were kept in good hygienic condition. Artificial insemination was common (69.3%) breeding system practiced in most dairy farms of studying area. This study discovered that only a few dairy farms (2.7%) undergo periodic vaccination. It appeared from the study that morbidity loss of animals was primarily caused by mastitis which calculated (42.7%), black leg (32%), lumpy skin disease (21.3%), milk fever (17.3%), heart water (10.7%) and foot rote (5.3%) in order of their decreasing order. The results of this survey revealed that mastitis was ranked as the number one disease of dairy animals while foot rote was list reported disease in the study area. Morbidity loss of production and productivity was estimated to the financial loss of (812,600 birrs) per year. Not only morbidity loss, in some farms, mortality was also common problems of the study area. Mainly common diseases such as heart water (6.7%), milk fever (5.3%), back leg (2.7%), and lumpy skin disease (1.7%) were major causes of mortality in few farms. This in turn estimated the financial loss of (625,000 birrs). Eventually, overall annual financial loss as a result of mortality and morbidity was estimated to be (1,437,600 birrs). The outbreak of lumpy skin disease and blacklegs could be controlled through improving veterinary services with respect to adequate vaccination and heart water (seasonal tick infestation) would be alleviated by spraying. The aim of the study was to assess assessment on economic losses due to animal health and production constraints in Jimma town intensive dairy farms, Jimma, Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Machado ◽  
F. Korennoy ◽  
J. Alvarez ◽  
C. Picasso-Risso ◽  
A. Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Disease Virus ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease Virus ◽  
Increased Risk

SummaryLumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread across many Eastern European countries as well as Russia and Kazakhstan. This rapid expansion highlights the emergent nature of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread in Eurasia through a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV and b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk using a fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence information. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. This analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk of LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were found to be important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modeling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Results suggest that prevailing ecological conditions may be compatible with further spread of LSDV in Eurasia, though models should be continually updated to reflect the current epidemiologic conditions. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region.

scholarly journals Estimating Economic Burden and Factors Perceived to Be Associated With Lumpy Skin Disease in Cattle in Namisindwa District, Eastern Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac Ongom ◽  
Steven Odongo ◽  
Aggrey Siya ◽  
Francis Ejobi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
P Value ◽  
Power Performance ◽  
Veterinary Services ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Cattle Herds

Abstract BackgroundGlobally, livestock contributes about 40% of agricultural output sustaining livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people. In Uganda, livestock contributes 5.2% and 12.7% to the total national GDP and agricultural GDP, respectively. In districts like Namisindwa, diseases like Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) affect the sector undermining its trade and production. Studies on the economic impact and risk factors have not been undertaken in such areas. This study thus sought to unravel information regarding economic impact and perceived risk factors associated with LSD in Namisindwa district. A cross sectional study involving quantitative approaches was employed in this study. Dependent variables were period prevalence and associated economic losses due effect of LSD on cattle herds while independent variable were potential factors influencing spread of the disease among cattle herds. The financial impact assessment was based on the farmers’ calendar year. Results The total economic losses incurred by farmers in Namisindwa district in a single outbreak of LSD was estimated at UGX 574,999,741 (USD 155,405). The most prominent economic loss due to LSD was attributed to low milk yield in lactating cattle as well as poor draught power performance. Other major contributions to economic losses due to LSD after the aforementioned two factors were cost of veterinary services and mortalities of cattle. Economic losses associated with loss of calves, and skin losses were perceived to be the lowest. Introduction of new animals, communal grazing and access to veterinary services were significantly associated with outbreaks of Lumpy Skin Disease. Specifically, farmers with access to veterinary services were less likely to be affected with the rampant spread of the LSD in their cattle, OR = .03361 and P-value < .05. Conclusion There is need for Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries in Uganda to advance interventions for prevention and control of LSD in the district. Larger scale and rigorous studies ought to be undertaken also to understand the risk factors and economic impact of LSD outbreaks.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 in the US

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangzhuo Chen ◽  
Anil Vullikanti ◽  
Joost Santos ◽  
Srinivasan Venkatramanan ◽  
Stefan Hoops ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Professional Services ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us

AbstractThis research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of the lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as the Agriculture sector and the Construction sector, but the ones with high valued jobs such as the Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown.

scholarly journals Occurrences of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in Cattle in Dinajpur Sadar of Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 445-455
Author(s):  
Sumon Sarkar ◽  
Mirza Mienur Meher ◽  
Mst Misrat Masuma Parvez ◽  
Mahfuza Akther
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Skin Lesions ◽  
Young Female ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Local Breed ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Herd Level ◽  
Level Information

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an acute viral disease infectious of cattle and recently emerged very common in Bangladesh causing economic losses. Hence, this study was design to investigate the prevalence of LSD in considering the herd level and some of management status. Thus, a total of 453 sick animals were subjected to study during the period of April 2020 to July 2020 in Dinajpur. LSD was confirmed according to the clinical inspection and microscopic study of skin scraping. The results indicated that the overall prevalence of LSD was 41.06% in cattle. Moreover, the local breed (75%) and young cattle less than one year (64%) were significantly (p<0.001) higher for LSD with the significant (p<0.001) skin lesions in whole body (44%). In addition, the animal grazed in flock (61%), non-dewormed (58%), non-vaccinated (61%) was significantly (p<0.05) higher for LSD. In the same way, 75% prevalence was in without fly repellent (p<0.001). Afterward, the univariate logistic regression in herd level information had the odd ratio of local breed (95% CI: 0.244-0.553), skin lesions in abdominal regions (95% CI: 1.620-5.923) and pregnant cattle (95% CI: 1.057-3.386) was 0.367, 3.098 and 1.892 respectively indicated the likelihood of no LSD outbreaks. Besides this, the odd ratio of dewormed cattle, vaccinated, individually grazed, regular use of disinfectant and fly repellent farm animal was 1.493 (95% CI:1.024-2.177), 1.491 (95% CI:1.020-2.180), 1.656 (95% CI:1.133-2.421), 1.516 (95% CI:0.952-2.414) and 1.660 (95% CI:1.097-2.513), respectively indicated the likelihood of no LSD. Therefore, LSD infection can be greatly reduced by practicing regular vaccination, deworming, and disinfection, vector controlling and allowing grazing individually, especially with great concern to young female cattle of local breed. Res. Agric., Livest. Fish.7(3): 445-455,  December 2020

Risk analysis of lumpy skin disease in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ömer Baris Ince ◽  
Serkan Çakir ◽  
Mehmet Ali Dereli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
And Control

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in Turkish cattle appeared suddenly two years ago. This study evaluates potential risks of LSD and recommends appropriate control measures. The World Animal Health Organization’s protocol was used for the risk analysis. Likelihoods for disease release and exposure were estimated with a qualitative scale ranging from negligible to high. Outbreaks were recorded in nine provinces in Turkey. Total economic loss due to the disease was estimated to be $241.903.500 US dollars. The risk analysis suggests a greater than negligible risk. Therefore, disease prevention and control strategies should be considered by the Turkish Veterinary Authority.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Li ◽  
Wenliang Lu ◽  
Xifei Yang ◽  
Peihua Feng ◽  
Ozarina Muqimova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Incubation Period ◽  
Real World ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Design And Methods

AbstractBackgroud and ObjectiveTo predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model.Design and MethodsWe forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures.ResultsThe peak time of the curve for the infected newly diagnosed as COVID-19 should substantially present on Feb. 5, 2020 (in non-Hubei areas) and Feb. 19, 2020 (in Hubei). It is estimated that the peak of the curve of the cumulative confirmed cases will appear in non-Hubei areas on Mar. 3, 2020 and in Hubei province on Mar. 10, 2020, and the total number of the patients diagnosed as COVID-19 is 18,000 in non-Hubei areas and 78,000-96,000 in Hubei. The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completetly controlled in May, 2020.ConclusionsCOVID-19 is only a local outbreak in Hubei Province, China. It can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of naturally occurring lumpy skin disease virus infection in cattle using virological, molecular, and immunohistopathological assays

2021 ◽  
pp. 2230-2237
Author(s):  
Dawlat M. Amin ◽  
Gehan Shehab ◽  
Rawhya Emran ◽  
Rabab T. Hassanien ◽  
Gehan N. Alagmy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Molecular Detection ◽  
Chorioallantoic Membrane ◽  
Hair Follicles ◽  
Confirmatory Test ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Infected Cattle ◽  
Basal Cells ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Skin Nodule

Background and Aim: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a contagious viral disease that has great economic losses among Egyptian breeding flocks. The present study was designed to compare the results of different diagnostic approaches used for the diagnosis of LSD virus (LSDV). Materials and Methods: A total of 73 skin nodule samples were collected from suspected infected cattle with LSDV from some Egyptian governorates during 2019 and 2020. Trials for virus isolation (VI) and identification on embryonated chicken eggs (ECEs) were conducted. Molecular detection, histopathological, and immunohistochemical examination were also conducted. Results: The virus was isolated into ECEs, and 58 samples of 73 were positive and gave a characteristic pock lesion on the chorioallantoic membrane. Twenty-two representative nodular skin specimens of the 58 positive samples were selected to be used for molecular, histopathological, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) diagnosis. Conventional polymerase chain reaction succeeded in detecting LSDV DNA in all tested 22 skin nodule samples. Histological examination of skins of different cases revealed various alterations depending on the stage of infection. IHC was used as a confirmatory test for detecting LSDV antigen in the tissues of the skin nodules of infected cattle using specific anti-LSDV antibodies. Lumpy skin viral antigen was detected within the cytoplasm of the epidermal basal cells layer and prickle cell and within the cytoplasm of the hair follicles' epithelial outer and inner roots. Conclusion: This study confirmed the prevalence of LSDV infection in different Egyptian governorates during 2019 and 2020. In addition, histopathology and IHC could be potential methods to confirm Lumpy skin disease infection besidesVI and molecular detection.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangzhuo Chen ◽  
Anil Vullikanti ◽  
Joost Santos ◽  
Srinivasan Venkatramanan ◽  
Stefan Hoops ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Professional Services ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Epidemiological Impact

AbstractThis research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as Agriculture and Construction, but the ones with high valued jobs such as Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown.

scholarly journals Total Number of Cattle in the Republic of Serbia after an Outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Marko Lazić ◽  
Jelena Nikitović ◽  
Marina Antić ◽  
Zvonko Spasić ◽  
Bratislav Pešić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Animal Products ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Livestock Markets ◽  
Preventive Vaccination ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Republic

Numerous studies conducted worldwide indicate a tendency towards a continuous decline in number of cattle. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent the reduction of the number of cattle and to increase the concentration of animals per farm. In this regard, the objective of this study was to analyze the total number of cattle after an outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in the Republic of Serbia. Due to the occurrence of this highly dangerous infectious disease in the Balkans and Eastern Europe, emergency and preventive vaccination was performed in infected and vulnerable areas in the Republic of Serbia. To prevent the spread of LSD, competent authorities banned public gatherings of cattle at fairs, exhibitions, livestock markets and purchase places, which resulted in economic losses for certain farmers. This disease is believed to have impacted the total number of cattle slaughtered and the number of deaths, as well as the import and export of live cattle, animal products and by-products of animal origin. The comparison between indices for the number of cattle shows a decline in the total number of cattle in the analyzed period across statistical territorial units. Results on the total number of cattle can be used, among other things, to create new and more complex questions arising from current and future farming problems.

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