scholarly journals A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheming Yuan ◽  
Yi Xiao ◽  
Zhijun Dai ◽  
Jianjun Huang ◽  
Yuan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
China Mainland ◽  
Transmission Ability ◽  
At Home

AbstractSince COVID-19 emerged in early December, 2019 in Wuhan and swept across China Mainland, a series of large-scale public health interventions, especially Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement, have been taken by the government to control the epidemic. Based on Baidu Migration data and the confirmed cases data, we identified two key factors affecting the later (e.g February 27, 2020) cumulative confirmed cases in non-Wuhan region (y). One is the sum travelers from Wuhan during January 20 to January 26 (x1), which had higher infected probability but lower transmission ability because the human-to-human transmission risk of COVID-19 was confirmed and announced on January 20. The other is the “seed cases” from Wuhan before January 19, which had higher transmission ability and could be represented with the confirmed cases before January 29 (x2) due to a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection. A simple yet effective regression model then was established as follow: y= 70.0916+0.0054×x1+2.3455×x2 (n = 44, R2 = 0.9330, P<10−7). Even the lock-down date only delay or in advance 3 days, the estimated confirmed cases by February 27 in non-Wuhan region will increase 35.21% or reduce 30.74% - 48.59%. Although the above interventions greatly reduced the human mobility, Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement do have a determining effect on the ongoing spread of COVID-19 across China Mainland. The strategy adopted by China has changed the fast-rising curve of newly diagnosed cases, the international community should learn from lessons of Wuhan and experience from China. Efforts of 29 Provinces and 44 prefecture-level cities against COVID-19 were also assessed preliminarily according to the interpretive model. Big data has played and will continue playing an important role in public health.

scholarly journals Human mobility trends during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241468
Author(s):  
Minha Lee ◽  
Jun Zhao ◽  
Qianqian Sun ◽  
Yixuan Pan ◽  
Weiyi Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Tangible Evidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
At Home

In March of this year, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and it continues to threaten public health. This global health crisis imposes limitations on daily movements, which have deteriorated every sector in our society. Understanding public reactions to the virus and the non-pharmaceutical interventions should be of great help to fight COVID-19 in a strategic way. We aim to provide tangible evidence of the human mobility trends by comparing the day-by-day variations across the U.S. from January 2020 to early April 2020. Large-scale public mobility at an aggregated level is observed by leveraging mobile device location data and the measures related to social distancing. Our study captures spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as the sociodemographic variations and teleworking trends regarding the pandemic propagation and the non-pharmaceutical mobility interventions. All metrics adapted capture decreased public movements after the national emergency declaration. The population staying home has increased in all states before the stay-at-home mandates implemented and becomes more stable after the order with a smaller range of fluctuation. The public had been taking active responses, voluntarily staying home more, to the in-state confirmed cases while the stay-at-home orders stabilize the variations. As the estimated teleworking rates also continue to incline throughout the study period, the teleworking trend can be another driving factor for the growing stay-at-home population. We confirm that there exists overall mobility heterogeneity between the income or population density groups. The study suggests that public mobility trends are in line with the government message urging to stay home. We anticipate our data-driven analysis offers integrated perspectives and serves as evidence to raise public awareness and, consequently, reinforce the importance of social distancing while assisting policymakers.

Cross-contamination in molecular laboratories: A challenge to COVID-19 testing in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Jahidur Rahman Khan ◽  
◽  
Selim Reza ◽  
Farzana Mim ◽  
Md Abdullah Rumman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Diagnostic Errors ◽  
Laboratory Diagnosis ◽  
Cross Contamination ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Surveillance Programs ◽  
The Government

Rapid and accurate laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for the management of COVID-19 patients and control of the spread of the virus. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bangladesh had only one government molecular laboratory where real-time RT-PCR will be performed to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infection. With the increasing number of suspected cases requiring confirmation diagnostic testing, there was a requirement to quickly expand capacity for large-scale testing. The government of Bangladesh established over 100 molecular laboratories within one year to test COVID-19. To fulfil the requirement for expanded testing, the government was compelled to recruit laboratory employees with inadequate experience, technical knowledge, and skills in molecular assays, particularly in processing specimens, interpreting results, recognizing errors, and troubleshooting. As a result, the risk of diagnostic errors, such as cross-contamination, is increased, as is that the risk of false-positive results, which might risk the patient’s health and undermine the efficacy of public health policies, public health response, surveillance programs, and restrictive measures aimed toward containing the outbreak. This review article aims to explain different sources of crosscontamination in the COVID-19 RT-PCR laboratories and the way to forestall them in efficient and practical ways.

scholarly journals Confronting the Moscow Healthcare System with the Shocks of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Aleksandr N. Tsibin ◽  
Munira F. Latypova ◽  
Olga I. Ivanushkina
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Laboratory Diagnosis ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Laboratory Diagnostics ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Laboratory Service ◽  
The Government ◽  
Challenging Situation

Introduction. Transmissible coronavirus SARS-CoV-2I is the seventh known coronavirus that causes an acute infectious disease predominantly affecting the lungs (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19). The COVID-19 pandemic exposed serious gaps in health systems preparedness. The epidemic urgently required priority organizational measures to contain and reduce the spread of COVID-19. Public health authorities had to make decisions in a challenging situation where there was a lack of knowledge, experience, and great confidence, and the number of infected was steadily increasing. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to present the unique experience of Moscow in organizing a large-scale laboratory examination of the population of a metropolis with about 12.6 million inhabitants to meet the needs of the capital in testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus and combating its circulation in conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and Methods. The decisions made and the measures taken by the Government of Moscow, the Moscow Operational Staff, the DZM and the DZM Laboratory Service to slow the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic among the population of the capital are listed step-by-step. Results. In the course of organizational activities, sufficient capacity to maintain the public health infrastructure in terms of laboratory diagnosis of the new coronavirus infection was ensured by the joint efforts. Safe laboratory diagnostics for detecting, treating, and isolating COVID-19 cases and contacts have been established in the capital city. Thanks to the successful implementation of timely decisions, the spread of infection in the city of Moscow has been slowed. The Moscow government has reported a steady decline in cases of the new coronavirus disease and most hospitals have switched to a safe treatment regimen for patients requiring hospitalization. Centralized laboratories with readiness to perform screening and referral studies for COVID-19 outbreaks have been established within the structure of the DZM.

scholarly journals Round table: Re-thinking health inequalities

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Inequalities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Round Table ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Government

Abstract Health inequalities - systematically higher rates of morbidity and mortality among people with a lower socioeconomic position - have been on the public health agenda for decades now. However, despite massive research efforts (and somewhat less massive policy efforts) health inequalities have not narrowed - on the contrary, relative inequalities have widened considerably. It is therefore time for a re-think: after decades of research we need to step back and ask ourselves: what went wrong? Johan Mackenbach argues, in a book published by Oxford University Press (2019), that the main problem is that public health researchers and policy-makers have misunderstood the nature of health inequalities. They have too often ignored insights from other disciplines, such as economics (which has a stricter attitude to issues of causality) and sociology (which has a subtler understanding the nature of social inequality). They have also failed to integrate contradictory research findings into mainstream thinking. This workshop will focus on three such contradictions, and will discuss whether it is possible to re-think health inequalities in a way that will allow more effective policy approaches. (1) It has been surprisingly difficult to find convincing scientific evidence for a causal effect of socioeconomic disadvantage on health. Should public health reconsider its idea that health inequalities are caused by social inequalities, and widen their scope to give more room to social selection, genetic factors and other non-causal pathways in their analysis? (2) There is not a single country in Europe where over the past decades health inequalities, as measured on a relative scale, have narrowed. This is due to the fact that all groups have improved their health, but higher socioeconomic groups have improved more. This is even true in the only European country (i.e., England) in which the government has pursued a large-scale policy program to reduce health inequalities. Should public health accept that reducing relative inequalities in health is impossible, and focus on reducing absolute health inequalities instead? (3) The Nordic countries, which have been more successful than other European countries in reducing inequalities in material living conditions, do not have smaller health inequalities. It is as if inequalities in other factors, such as psychosocial and behavioural factors, in these countries have filled the gap left by reduced inequalities in material living conditions. Should public health reconsider its idea that material living conditions are the foundation for health, and re-focus on psychological, cultural and other less tangible factors instead? In this round table Johan Mackenbach will present and illustrate these contradictions and propose his answers to these contentious issues. Then, the four panelists will present their view-points, followed by a general discussion between panelists and the audience. Key messages After four decades of research into health inequalities, it is necessary to step back and ask ourselves why it has so far been impossible to reduce health inequalities. More effective policies to tackle health inequalities will only be possible when public health has come to grips with contradictory research findings. Johan Mackenbach Contact: [email protected] Johannes Siegrist Contact: [email protected] Alastair Leyland Contact: [email protected] Olle Lundberg Contact: [email protected] Ramune Kalediene Contact: [email protected]

scholarly journals KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH DALAM PENANGANAN PANDEMI COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Darmin Tuwu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Social Welfare Services ◽  
The Social ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
At Home

This paper aims to elaborate on how government policies prevent and deal with COVID-19. The method used is a qualitative method with a case study approach. The focus of the study is government policies and events that follow the implementation of the policy period from March to June 2020 related to government policies in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. The study results show that government policies to prevent the spread of Coronavirus transmission such as the policy of staying at home; Social distancing; Physical Restrictions; Use of Personal Protective Equipment; Maintain Personal Hygiene; Work and Study at home; Postpone all activities that gather a lot of people; Large-scale social restrictions; until the implementation of the New Normal policy. In addition, the government has also implemented social assistance and social protection policies to ensure that the community can survive, not only the Social Welfare Services Government group but also the high-class community.

scholarly journals Game Analysis of the Multiagent Evolution of Existing Building Green Retrofitting from the Perspective of Green Credit

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Liwen Chen ◽  
Mengjia Zhang ◽  
Shiwen Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Payoff Matrix ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Service Companies ◽  
The Government

Existing building green retrofitting can reduce building energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which is conducive to the sustainable development of the construction industry. The financing dilemma of the existing building green retrofitting hinders the large-scale development of green retrofitting in China. This paper establishes the perceived payoff matrix and evolutionary game model of the government, Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), banks, and owners. Through simulation analysis, the primary factors affecting the choice of game strategy and the stable strategy under different conditions are discussed. The results show that the strategic choices of the government, ESCOs, banks, and owners influence each other in the two game models. Government regulations will have an impact on the strategic choices of ESCOs, banks, and owners. The owners’ strategy choice is closely related to the perceived benefits and costs of retrofitting. Based on the results, corresponding suggestions are proposed to provide theoretical support for the development of the existing building green retrofitting market.

scholarly journals Social impacts of health care reforms in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 17011
Author(s):  
Tatyana Tagaeva ◽  
Lidiya Kazantseva
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
The State ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The article considers the stages of healthcare sector reforms in Russia and the impact of this process on public health as the main indicator of the social state. A definition of public health is given; the scientific significance and relevance of the research are justified. The works of foreign and domestic authors, their approaches to the study of factors affecting public health are analysed. The analysis of the state of public health in 80s-90s of the last century during the political and economic crisis is made; the transition process from the so-called “budget-funded” financing model to the “insurance” one is described. Based on statistics and expert assessments, as well as international confrontations, conclusions are drawn about the multi-year underfunding of the healthcare sector, primarily from the state budget. A new stage of reforms is analysed: since 2014, the Russian government has begun the so-called “optimization” of healthcare. Its goals, results, feedbacks from doctors and patients are stated. They show the new reform is a negative process for health system. The blunders of health care reform have been sharply marked with the beginning of the pandemic of coronavirus infection. The facts of the self-sacrificing work of the doctors and nursing personnel during the pandemic period, the measures of the Government and the society to support medical workers were described.

scholarly journals Prioritizing public health? Factors affecting the issuance of stay-at-home orders in response to COVID-19 in Africa

2022 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. e0000112
Author(s):  
Gregg R. Murray ◽  
Joshua Rutland
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Event History Analysis ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Public ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
History Analysis ◽  
At Home

COVID-19 has sickened and killed millions of people globally. Conventional non-pharmaceutical interventions, particularly stay-at-home orders (SAHOs), though effective for limiting the spread of disease have significantly disrupted social and economic systems. The effects also have been dramatic in Africa, where many states are already vulnerable due to their developmental status. This study is designed to test hypotheses derived from the public health policymaking literature regarding the roles played by medical and political factors as well as social, economic, and external factors in African countries’ issuance of SAHOs in response to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using event history analysis, this study analyzed these five common factors related to public health policy to determine their impact on African states’ varying decisions regarding the issuance of SAHOs. The results of this analysis suggest that medical factors significantly influenced decisions as did factors external to the states, while the role of political factors was limited. Social and economic factors played no discernible role. Overall, this study suggests how African leaders prioritized competing factors in the early stages of a public health crisis.

scholarly journals In science we (should) trust: Expectations and compliance across nine countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252892
Author(s):  
Cristina Bicchieri ◽  
Enrique Fatas ◽  
Abraham Aldama ◽  
Andrés Casas ◽  
Ishwari Deshpande ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
Normative Expectations ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vignette Experiment ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
At Home

The magnitude and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevents public health policies from relying on coercive enforcement. Practicing social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home becomes voluntary and conditional on the behavior of others. We present the results of a large-scale survey experiment in nine countries with representative samples of the population. We find that both empirical expectations (what others do) and normative expectations (what others approve of) play a significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of any other individual or group characteristic. In our vignette experiment, respondents evaluate the likelihood of compliance with social distancing and staying at home of someone similar to them in a hypothetical scenario. When empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, respondents’ evaluation of the vignette’s character’s compliance likelihood goes up by 55% (relative to the low expectations condition). Similar results are obtained when looking at self-reported compliance among those with high expectations. Our results are moderated by individuals’ trust in government and trust in science. Holding expectations high, the effect of trusting science is substantial and significant in our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance likelihood), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). By contrast, trusting the government only generates modest effects. At the aggregate level, the country-level trust in science, and not in government, becomes a strong predictor of compliance.

scholarly journals Factors influencing Vietnam’s handicraft export with the gravity model

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-171
Author(s):  
Luong Anh Thu ◽  
Sun Fang ◽  
Sham Sunder Kessani
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Past Research ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The World ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that affect handicraft export from Vietnam to trading partners in the period 2007–2017, and how those factors influence the export of handicraft products of Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The research uses the approach of gravity model based on panel data to evaluate the export of Vietnamese handicraft to 50 main trading partners, covering the period from 2007 to 2017. Findings The estimated results reveal that Vietnam’s GDP, importer’s GDP, trading partner’s population, Vietnam’s inflation, the economic distance between Vietnam and importer, the openness of Vietnam, importing country’s common language and the issue that both Vietnam and importer are member of APEC are the main factors affecting Vietnamese handicraft export. Research limitations/implications This study also has some limitations. It is limited in the data, as some other areas in the world have not been observed and included in the research. In the future, a study with large-scale data of space and time should be conducted, which will certainly give a universal result and fewer errors. However, this paper, in our opinion, provides a significant result and may help the government and policy makers to undertake appropriate measures to improve and promote the export of Vietnamese handicrafts to the world markets. Practical implications The research describes the current situation, and it studies factors influencing Vietnam’s handicraft export using the qualitative analysis. The result should be useful for the policy maker and enterprises to promote export activities of Vietnamese handicrafts to international markets. Social implications Handicraft export of Vietnam plays an important part in retaining the culture value and social development as well as encouraging sustainable development for the rural poor within the country. Originality/value The past research related to Vietnamese handicraft export almost analyzed the situation to promote export handicrafts. This research is based on the study of factors affecting trade and the gravity model to elaborate and supplement the factors that affect the export of handicraft in accordance with the actual conditions of Vietnam.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document