Human mobility trends during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

In March of this year, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and it continues to threaten public health. This global health crisis imposes limitations on daily movements, which have deteriorated every sector in our society. Understanding public reactions to the virus and the non-pharmaceutical interventions should be of great help to fight COVID-19 in a strategic way. We aim to provide tangible evidence of the human mobility trends by comparing the day-by-day variations across the U.S. from January 2020 to early April 2020. Large-scale public mobility at an aggregated level is observed by leveraging mobile device location data and the measures related to social distancing. Our study captures spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as the sociodemographic variations and teleworking trends regarding the pandemic propagation and the non-pharmaceutical mobility interventions. All metrics adapted capture decreased public movements after the national emergency declaration. The population staying home has increased in all states before the stay-at-home mandates implemented and becomes more stable after the order with a smaller range of fluctuation. The public had been taking active responses, voluntarily staying home more, to the in-state confirmed cases while the stay-at-home orders stabilize the variations. As the estimated teleworking rates also continue to incline throughout the study period, the teleworking trend can be another driving factor for the growing stay-at-home population. We confirm that there exists overall mobility heterogeneity between the income or population density groups. The study suggests that public mobility trends are in line with the government message urging to stay home. We anticipate our data-driven analysis offers integrated perspectives and serves as evidence to raise public awareness and, consequently, reinforce the importance of social distancing while assisting policymakers.

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The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States

Public Health Reports ◽

10.1177/0033354920976575 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 136 (2) ◽

pp. 245-252 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Rahi Abouk ◽

Babak Heydari

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Early Stage ◽

Public Awareness ◽

The United States ◽

School Closure ◽

Grocery Stores ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Percentage Points ◽

Before And After ◽

At Home

Objective Although anecdotal evidence indicates the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social-distancing policies, their effectiveness in relation to what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions needs to be determined. We evaluated the effectiveness of the 6 most common social-distancing policies in the United States (statewide stay-at-home orders, limited stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, bans on large gatherings, school closure mandates, and limits on restaurants and bars) during the early stage of the pandemic. Methods We applied difference-in-differences and event-study methodologies to evaluate the effect of the 6 social-distancing policies on Google-released aggregated, anonymized daily location data on movement trends over time by state for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 6 location categories: retail and recreation, grocery stores and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences. We compared the outcome of interest in states that adopted COVID-19–related policies with states that did not adopt such policies, before and after these policies took effect during February 15–April 25, 2020. Results Statewide stay-at-home orders had the strongest effect on reducing out-of-home mobility and increased the time people spent at home by an estimated 2.5 percentage points (15.2%) from before to after policies took effect. Limits on restaurants and bars ranked second and resulted in an increase in presence at home by an estimated 1.4 percentage points (8.5%). The other 4 policies did not significantly reduce mobility. Conclusion Statewide stay-at-home orders and limits on bars and restaurants were most closely linked to reduced mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the potential benefits of other such policies may have already been reaped from voluntary social distancing. Further research is needed to understand how the effect of social-distancing policies changes as voluntary social distancing wanes during later stages of a pandemic.

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Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

Public Health Reports ◽

10.1177/00333549211011254 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 003335492110112

Author(s):

Hongjie Liu ◽

Chang Chen ◽

Raul Cruz-Cano ◽

Jennifer L. Guida ◽

Minha Lee

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Early Stage ◽

Human Mobility ◽

The United States ◽

Density Change ◽

Regression Coefficients ◽

Daily Growth Rate ◽

Daily Growth ◽

Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

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Social Distancing is Effective at Mitigating COVID-19 Transmission in the United States

10.1101/2020.05.07.20092353 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Hamada S. Badr ◽

Hongru Du ◽

Max Marshall ◽

Ensheng Dong ◽

Marietta Squire ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Large Scale ◽

Complex Dynamics ◽

Case Reports ◽

Human Mobility ◽

Local Level ◽

The United States ◽

Mobile Phone Data ◽

Variable Intensity ◽

Social Distancing

AbstractCOVID-19 is present in every state and over 90 percent of all counties in the United States. Decentralized government efforts to reduce spread, combined with the complex dynamics of human mobility and the variable intensity of local outbreaks makes assessing the effect of large-scale social distancing on COVID-19 transmission in the U.S.a challenge. We generate a novel metric to represent social distancing behavior derived from mobile phone data and examine its relationship with COVID-19 case reports at the county level. Our analysis reveals that social distancing is strongly correlated with decreased COVID-19 case growth rates for the 25 most affected counties in the United States, with a lag period consistent with the incubation time of SARS-CoV-2. We also demonstrate evidence that social distancing was already under way in many U.S. counties before state or local-level policies were implemented. This study strongly supports social distancing as an effective way to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in the United States.

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A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland

10.1101/2020.02.29.20029561 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Zheming Yuan ◽

Yi Xiao ◽

Zhijun Dai ◽

Jianjun Huang ◽

Yuan Chen

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Large Scale ◽

Human Mobility ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The Government ◽

Lower Transmission ◽

China Mainland ◽

Transmission Ability ◽

At Home

AbstractSince COVID-19 emerged in early December, 2019 in Wuhan and swept across China Mainland, a series of large-scale public health interventions, especially Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement, have been taken by the government to control the epidemic. Based on Baidu Migration data and the confirmed cases data, we identified two key factors affecting the later (e.g February 27, 2020) cumulative confirmed cases in non-Wuhan region (y). One is the sum travelers from Wuhan during January 20 to January 26 (x1), which had higher infected probability but lower transmission ability because the human-to-human transmission risk of COVID-19 was confirmed and announced on January 20. The other is the “seed cases” from Wuhan before January 19, which had higher transmission ability and could be represented with the confirmed cases before January 29 (x2) due to a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection. A simple yet effective regression model then was established as follow: y= 70.0916+0.0054×x1+2.3455×x2 (n = 44, R2 = 0.9330, P<10−7). Even the lock-down date only delay or in advance 3 days, the estimated confirmed cases by February 27 in non-Wuhan region will increase 35.21% or reduce 30.74% - 48.59%. Although the above interventions greatly reduced the human mobility, Wuhan lock-down combined with nationwide traffic restrictions and Stay At Home Movement do have a determining effect on the ongoing spread of COVID-19 across China Mainland. The strategy adopted by China has changed the fast-rising curve of newly diagnosed cases, the international community should learn from lessons of Wuhan and experience from China. Efforts of 29 Provinces and 44 prefecture-level cities against COVID-19 were also assessed preliminarily according to the interpretive model. Big data has played and will continue playing an important role in public health.

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In science we (should) trust: Expectations and compliance across nine countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0252892 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (6) ◽

pp. e0252892

Author(s):

Cristina Bicchieri ◽

Enrique Fatas ◽

Abraham Aldama ◽

Andrés Casas ◽

Ishwari Deshpande ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Strong Predictor ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Country Level ◽

Hypothetical Scenario ◽

Normative Expectations ◽

The Government ◽

Vignette Experiment ◽

Staying At Home ◽

At Home

The magnitude and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevents public health policies from relying on coercive enforcement. Practicing social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home becomes voluntary and conditional on the behavior of others. We present the results of a large-scale survey experiment in nine countries with representative samples of the population. We find that both empirical expectations (what others do) and normative expectations (what others approve of) play a significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of any other individual or group characteristic. In our vignette experiment, respondents evaluate the likelihood of compliance with social distancing and staying at home of someone similar to them in a hypothetical scenario. When empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, respondents’ evaluation of the vignette’s character’s compliance likelihood goes up by 55% (relative to the low expectations condition). Similar results are obtained when looking at self-reported compliance among those with high expectations. Our results are moderated by individuals’ trust in government and trust in science. Holding expectations high, the effect of trusting science is substantial and significant in our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance likelihood), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). By contrast, trusting the government only generates modest effects. At the aggregate level, the country-level trust in science, and not in government, becomes a strong predictor of compliance.

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Working memory capacity predicts individual differences in social-distancing compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2008868117 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 117 (30) ◽

pp. 17667-17674 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Weizhen Xie ◽

Stephen Campbell ◽

Weiwei Zhang

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

United States ◽

Working Memory ◽

Individual Differences ◽

Early Stage ◽

Critical Role ◽

The United States ◽

Unique Contribution ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Social Distancing

Noncompliance with social distancing during the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a great challenge to the public health system. These noncompliance behaviors partly reflect people’s concerns for the inherent costs of social distancing while discounting its public health benefits. We propose that this oversight may be associated with the limitation in one’s mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory (WM) for rational decision making that leads to social-distancing compliance. We tested this hypothesis in 850 United States residents during the first 2 wk following the presidential declaration of national emergency because of the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that participants’ social-distancing compliance at this initial stage could be predicted by individual differences in WM capacity, partly due to increased awareness of benefits over costs of social distancing among higher WM capacity individuals. Critically, the unique contribution of WM capacity to the individual differences in social-distancing compliance could not be explained by other psychological and socioeconomic factors (e.g., moods, personality, education, and income levels). Furthermore, the critical role of WM capacity in social-distancing compliance can be generalized to the compliance with another set of rules for social interactions, namely the fairness norm, in Western cultures. Collectively, our data reveal contributions of a core cognitive process underlying social-distancing compliance during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting a potential cognitive venue for developing strategies to mitigate a public health crisis.

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How many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the US if its interventions were as effective as those in China and South Korea?

10.1101/2020.05.06.20092981 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kai Liu ◽

Yukun Song ◽

Menghui Li ◽

Zhesi Shen ◽

Ming Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

South Korea ◽

Large Scale ◽

Early Stage ◽

The United States ◽

Actual Number ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Effective Interventions ◽

The Us ◽

The World

AbstractThe COVID-19 [1] pandemic has forced governments to take measures to contain the spread of the disease [2]; however, the effects have varied significantly from one country to another contingent on governments’ responses. Countries that have flattened their coronavirus curves prove that interventions can bring COVID-19 under control. These achievements hold lessons, such as the strict social distancing and coordinated efforts of all government levels in China and massive testing in South Korea, for other countries battling the coronavirus around the world. In this work, we attempt to estimate how many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the United States (US) when compared with the US’s actual number of cases assuming that on a certain date, the US took China-like or South Korea-like interventions and that these interventions would have been as effective in the US as in China and South Korea. We found that if that date was at the early stage of the outbreak (March 10), more than 99% (1.15 million) fewer infected cases could be expected by the end of the epidemic. This number decreases to 66.03% and 73.06% fewer infected cases with the China-like scenario and the South Korea-like scenario, respectively, if actions were taken on April 1, highlighting the need to respond quickly and effectively to fight the virus. Furthermore, we found that although interventions in both China and South Korea allowed the COVID-19 outbreak to be managed, the epidemic could still oscillate without strict large-scale ‘lockdown’ measures, as shown in South Korea. Our results demonstrate that early effective interventions can save considerably more people from infection and provide a worldwide alert regard the need for swift response.

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The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social Distancing Behavior in the United States

10.1101/2020.04.07.20057356 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Rahi Abouk ◽

Babak Heydari

Keyword(s):

Social Interactions ◽

Public Awareness ◽

State Level ◽

The United States ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Level Data ◽

Causal Impact ◽

Testing Practices ◽

Policy Mechanisms ◽

At Home

Anecdotal evidence points to the effectiveness of COVID-19 social distancing policies, however, their effectiveness vis-a-vis what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions have not been studied. Policy variations across US states create a natural experiment to study the causal impact of each policy. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, location-based mobility, and daily state-level data on COVID-19 tests and confirmed cases, we rank policies based on their effectiveness. We show that statewide stay-at-home orders had the strongest causal impact on reducing social interactions. In contrast, most of the expected impact of more lenient policies were already reaped from non-policy mechanisms. Moreover, stay-at-home policy results in a steady decline in confirmed cases, starting from ten days after implementation and reaching a 37% decrease after fifteen days, consistent with the testing practices and incubation period of the disease.

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Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.31557 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zeyu Lyu ◽

Hiroki Takikawa

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Mobility Data ◽

The Social ◽

The Government ◽

Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

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Persepsi Masyarakat Terhadap Pemberlakuan Social Distancing Di Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Sebagai Implementasi Modal Sosial

Business Innovation and Entrepreneurship Journal ◽

10.35899/biej.v3i1.203 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 25-31

Author(s):

Ade Suherman ◽

Tetep Tetep ◽

Asep Supriyatna ◽

Eldi Mulyana ◽

Triani Widyanti ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Social Capital ◽

Health Condition ◽

Public Perceptions ◽

Research Approach ◽

Community Group ◽

Social Distancing ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact ◽

Staying At Home ◽

At Home

The purpose of this study is to analyze and explain public perceptions of the implementation of social distancing during the pandemic as the implementation of social capital. This study was motivated by the phenomenon of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in a number of countries, including Indonesia. This condition not only affects the economic condition of a country, hinders social interaction among the community, and also has an impact on the health condition of every human being. To avoid the wider spread of Covid-19, the government was forced to adopt social distancing and physical distancing policies in the form of staying at home, working from home, studying, and worshiping at home. This research approach is descriptive qualitative. The data of this research is the impact of social distancing for the community in Tarogong Kidul District, Garut Regency. Sources of data come from several communities with a total of 50 respondents. Collecting data in this study using interview techniques, record, and continue to take notes. The results of the research can be concluded that with the implementation of social distancing in the pandemic period, at least the community can implement social capital which includes informal values or norms that are shared among members of an interrelated community group, which is based on the values of beliefs, norms and networks social and they respect each other, the development of social capital is the creation of increasingly independent groups of people who are able to participate more meaningfully. Social capital can solve citizens' problems, especially with regard to strengthening friendship, repairing and maintaining public service facilities because it has advantages and is the most appropriate, even though there are other social capital in the community.

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