scholarly journals Infection Density and Epidemic Size of COVID-19 in China outside the Hubei province

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukun Liu ◽  
Jing Qin ◽  
Yan Fan ◽  
Yong Zhou ◽  
Dean A. Follmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Calculation Algorithm ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Infection Density ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread to almost all countries in the world, claiming more than 160,000 lives and sickening more than 2,400,000 people by April 21, 2020. There has been research showing that on average, each infected person spreads the infection to more than two persons. Therefore the majority of the population is at risk of infection if no intervention measures were undertaken. The true size of the COVID-19 epidemic remains unknown, as a significant proportion of infected individuals only exhibit mild symptoms or are even asymptomatic. A timely assessment of the evolving epidemic size is crucial for resource allocation and triage decisions. In this article, we modify the back-calculation algorithm to obtain a lower bound estimate of the number of COVID-19 infected persons in China outside the Hubei province. We estimate the infection density among infected and show that the drastic control measures enforced throughout China following the lockdown of Wuhan City effectively slowed down the spread of the disease in two weeks. Our findings from China are expected to provide guidelines and enlightenment for surveillance and control activities of COVID-19 in other countries around the world.

Current updates on COVID-19 - A review

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ghotekar D S ◽  
Vishal N Kushare ◽  
Sagar V Ghotekar
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Common Cold ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Gastrointestinal Diseases ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Common ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that cause illness such as respiratory diseases or gastrointestinal diseases. Respiratory diseases can range from the common cold to more severe diseases. A novel coronavirus outbreak was first documented in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. A global coordinated effort is needed to stop the further spread of the virus. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been identified in humans previously. Once scientists determine exactly what coronavirus it is, they give it a name (as in the case of COVID-19, the virus causing it is SARS-CoV-2).

scholarly journals Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Emerging and Future Challenges for Dental and Oral Medicine

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 481-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Meng ◽  
F. Hua ◽  
Z. Bian
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Dental Practitioners ◽  
The World ◽  
Essential Knowledge ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), originating in Wuhan, China, has become a major public health challenge for not only China but also countries around the world. The World Health Organization announced that the outbreaks of the novel coronavirus have constituted a public health emergency of international concern. As of February 26, 2020, COVID-19 has been recognized in 34 countries, with a total of 80,239 laboratory-confirmed cases and 2,700 deaths. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the epidemic situation. Due to the characteristics of dental settings, the risk of cross infection can be high between patients and dental practitioners. For dental practices and hospitals in areas that are (potentially) affected with COVID-19, strict and effective infection control protocols are urgently needed. This article, based on our experience and relevant guidelines and research, introduces essential knowledge about COVID-19 and nosocomial infection in dental settings and provides recommended management protocols for dental practitioners and students in (potentially) affected areas.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Markets

2022 ◽  
pp. 250-262
Author(s):  
Aslı Aybars ◽  
Mehtap Öner
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Fast Pace ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, which emerged at the end of 2019 and spread to the world at a very fast pace, resulted in a pandemic affecting the finance industry besides many other industries though at varying extents. Financial markets, which can be regarded as cornerstones of each and every country's economic success, have been adversely influenced due to the fear and uncertainty arising with the emergence of the novel coronavirus at different degrees. This chapter provides a summary of a literature review based on the impact of this pandemic on stock returns and volatility in the stock exchanges of different countries and regions of the world. What has been captured as a result of this literature review is that almost all of the financial markets around the world have been influenced due to the virus. Further, industry-wise empirical studies demonstrate that not all industries are affected at the same level or even in the same direction.

scholarly journals A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Torneri ◽  
Pieter Libin ◽  
Joris Vanderlocht ◽  
Anne-Mieke Vandamme ◽  
Johan Neyts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Antiviral Drug ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Antiviral Compound ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Care Systems

AbstractBackgroundCurrent outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation and quarantine, have been shown to decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modelling work shows that this intervention technique may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. Furthermore, the effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with a significant proportion of asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. Antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce the infectiousness, could be integrated in the control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic.MethodsUsing a simulation-based model of viral transmission we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures for the control of COVID-19. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Moreover, we investigate the effect of a potent antiviral compound on the contact tracing process.FindingsThe use of an antiviral drug, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine and isolation, results in a significant decrease of the final size, the peak incidence, and increases the probability that the outbreak will fade out.InterpretationFor an infectious disease in which presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when realized together with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. In addition, in all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of the administration of an antiviral drug in addition to quarantine, isolation and contact tracing. The resulting control measure, could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging out-breaks of COVID-19.

scholarly journals A comparison of COVID-19, SARS and MERS

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Hu ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
Mingyi Zhao ◽  
Quan Zhuang ◽  
Linyong Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Optimal Method ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

In mid-December 2019, a novel atypical pneumonia broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and was caused by a newly identified coronavirus, initially termed 2019 Novel Coronavirus and subsequently severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of 19 May 2020, a total of 4,731,458 individuals were reported as infected with SARS-CoV-2 among 213 countries, areas or territories with recorded cases, and the overall case-fatality rate was 6.6% (316,169 deaths among 4,731,458 recorded cases), according to the World Health Organization. Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 is notably similar to (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) SARS-CoV that emerged in 2002–2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) that spread during 2012, and these viruses all contributed to global pandemics. The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to rapidly spread a pneumonia-like disease from Hubei Province, China, throughout the world has provoked widespread concern. The main symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) include fever, cough, myalgia, fatigue and lower respiratory signs. At present, nucleic acid tests are widely recommended as the optimal method for detecting SARS-CoV-2. However, obstacles remain, including the global shortage of testing kits and the presentation of false negatives. Experts suggest that almost everyone in China is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to date, there are no effective treatments. In light of the references published, this review demonstrates the biological features, spread, diagnosis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 as a whole and aims to analyse the similarities and differences among SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV to provide new ideas and suggestions for prevention, diagnosis and clinical treatment.

scholarly journals Rash in COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
pp. 01-02
Author(s):  
Shravan Kooragayalu
Keyword(s):  
Skin Rash ◽  
Systemic Disease ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
The Body ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Short Course ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Almost All ◽  
High Index Of Suspicion

In December 2019, unexplained cases of pneumonia were reported in Wuhan, China. A novel coronavirus named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS CoV-2) was isolated from respiratory tract of patients, and the resultant disease was termed as COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) (Jin YH 2020). COVID-19 has spread throughout china and across the world and it was declared as a pandemic by March 11th 2020 (Ng OT 2020). Running Title: COVID-19 is a systemic disease that could affect almost all parts of the body but it primarily affects the respiratory system. There is very limited data in the literature about the dermatological manifestations of COVID-19. An interesting case of skin rash in a patient who was critically ill with COVID-19 is presented here. The skin rash improved after short course of treatment with steroids. It is recommended that clinicians have a high index of suspicion to COVID-19 disease in patients who develop unexplainable rash.

scholarly journals Understanding the Molecular Mechanism(s) of SARS-CoV2 Infection and Propagation in Human to Discover Potential Preventive and Therapeutic Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhruv Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Molecular Mechanism ◽  
Therapeutic Approach ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Human Cells ◽  
Huge Number ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In December 2019, outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and exported across the world leading to thousands of deaths and millions of suspected cases. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) infection into the host undergoes a huge number of complex replicative machineries which still remains unclear. Understanding the mechanism (s) of replication and mode of infection of SARS-CoV2 to human cells will help us in the development of novel vaccines or drugs for the eradication and prevention of the disease. This review compiles the knowledge of SARS-CoV2 replicative machinery, mode of infection to the human cells and the development of drugs and vaccines which are currently under clinical trials.

scholarly journals Development of research on COVID-19 by the World Scientific Community in the first half of 2020

Bionatura ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1410-1417
Author(s):  
Daniel Tinôco ◽  
Suzana Borschiver
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Community ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Activity Period ◽  
World Scientific ◽  
Case Identification ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Complications ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The World Scientific Community has carried out several studies on the novel coronavirus, responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to verify the development level and research evolution on COVID-19, summarizing experts' main trends in the first half of 2020. The most cited articles focused on understanding the disease, addressing aspects of its transmission, viral activity period, symptoms, health complications, risk factors, and the estimate of new cases. These papers also focused on the treatment/prevention and management of COVID-19. Several drugs and alternative treatments have been investigated, such as the convalescent plasma transfusion and stem cell transplantation, while an efficient vaccine is developed. Prevention and control measures, such as social isolation and immediate case identification, were also investigated. Therefore, the main COVID-19 trends were identified and classified in disease, treatment/prevention, and pandemic management, contributing to scientific understanding and future studies.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Early Dynamic Trends in Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: A Modeling Framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huazhen Lin ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hong Gao ◽  
Jinyu Nie ◽  
Qiao Fan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) represents a significant public health threat globally. Here we describe efforts to compare epidemic growth, size and peaking time for countries in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Australia in the early epidemic phase.MethodsUsing the time series of cases reported from January 20, 2020 to February 13, 2020 and transportation data from December 1, 2019 to January 23, 2020 we have built a novel time-varying growth model to predict the epidemic trend in China. We extended our method, using cases reported from January 26, 2020 - or the date of the earliest case reported, to April 9, 2020 to predict future epidemic trend and size in 41 countries. We estimated the impact of control measures on the epidemic trend.ResultsOur time-varying growth model yielded high concordance in the predicted epidemic size and trend with the observed figures in C hina. Among the other 41 countries, the peak time has been observed in 28 countries before or around April 9, 2020; the peak date and epidemic size were highly consistent with our estimates. We predicted the remaining countries would peak in April or May 2020, except India in July and Pakistan in August. The epidemic trajectory would reach the plateau in May or June for the majority of countries in the current wave. Countries that could emerge to be new epidemic centers are India, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia with a prediction of 105 cases for these countries. The effective reproduction number Rt displayed a downward trend with time across countries, revealing the impact of the intervention remeasures i.e. social distancing. Rt remained the highest in the UK (median 2.62) and the US (median 2.19) in the fourth week after the epidemic onset.ConclusionsNew epidemic centers are expected to continue to emerge across the whole world. Greater challenges such as those in the healthcare system would be faced by developing countries in hotspots. A domestic approach to curb the pandemic must align with joint international efforts to effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Our model promotes a reliable transmissibility characterization and epidemic forecasting using the incidence of cases in the early epidemic phase.

scholarly journals A new transmission route for the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Danchin ◽  
Tuen Wai Ng ◽  
Gabriel Turinici
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Route ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Public Records ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Virus Tropism ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Existing Data

Abstract Background: A novel coronavirus spread starting late 2019 from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the epidemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting specific way to handle the epidemic. Methods: We use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected and removed. We t the parameters of the model to the existing data taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. Results: The model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For Hong Kong, Singapore and Shenzhen region the secondary route does not seem to be active yet and the epidemic size limited. Conclusions: The alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route hypotheses are validated using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document