scholarly journals Will an imperfect vaccine curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enahoro Amos Iboi ◽  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
Abba B Gumel
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Protective Efficacy ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
The State ◽  
Vaccination Program ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that emerged from Wuhan city of China in late December 2019 continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. Although the community-wide implementation of basic non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, such as social-distancing, quarantine of suspected COVID-19 cases, isolation of confirmed cases, use of face masks in public, and contact-tracing, have been quite effective in curtailing and mitigating the burden of the pandemic, it is universally believed that the use of an anti-COVID-19 vaccine is necessary to build the community herd immunity needed to effectively control and eliminate the pandemic. This study is based on the design and use of a mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of a hypothetical imperfect anti-COVID-19 vaccine on the control of COVID-19. An analytical expression for the minimum number of unvaccinated susceptible individuals needed to be vaccinated to achieve vaccine-induced community herd immunity is derived. The epidemiological consequence of the herd immunity threshold is that the disease can be effectively controlled or eliminated if the minimum herd immunity threshold is achieved in the community. Simulations of the model, using baseline parameter values obtained from fitting the model with mortality data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Florida, as well as for the entire US, show that, for an anti-COVID-19 vaccine with an assumed protective efficacy of 80%, the minimum herd immunity threshold for the entire US, state of New York and state of Florida are, respectively, 90%, 84% and 85%. Furthermore, it was shown that, while a significantly large increase in vaccination rate (from baseline) is necessarily needed to eliminate COVID-19 from the entire US, the pandemic can be eliminated from the states of New York and Florida if the vaccination rate is marginally increased (by as low as 10%) from its baseline value. The prospect of COVID-19 elimination in the US or in the two states of New York and Florida is greatly enhanced if the vaccination program is combined with a public mask use program or an effective social-distancing measure. Such combination of strategies significantly reduces the vaccine-induced herd immunity threshold. Finally, it is shown that the vaccination program is more likely to lead to COVID-19 elimination in the state of Florida, followed by the state of New York and then the entire US.

scholarly journals Could masks curtail the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19 in the US?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calistus N. Ngonghala ◽  
Enahoro Iboi ◽  
Abba B. Gumel
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Early Implementation ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
High Level ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe community lockdown measures implemented in the United States, during late March to end of May of 2020, resulted in a significant reduction in the community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. However, a number of US states are currently experiencing an alarming post-lockdown resurgence of the pandemic, triggering the fear for a possible severe second wave of the pandemic in some US jurisdictions. We designed a mathematical model for addressing the key question of whether or not the universal use of face masks can halt or curtail such resurgence (and possibly avert a second wave, without having to undergo another cycle of major community lockdown) in the states of Arizona, Florida, New York and the entire US. The model was parametrized and fitted using cumulative mortality data from the four jurisdictions. Our study highlights the importance of early implementation of the community lockdown measures. In particular, a sizable reduction in the burden of the pandemic would have been recorded in each of the four jurisdictions if the community lockdown measures were implemented a week or two earlier. These reductions are greatly augmented if the early implementation of the lockdown measures is complemented with a public face masks use strategy. It is shown that the pandemic would have been almost completely suppressed from significantly taking off if the lockdown measures were implemented two weeks earlier, and if a sizable percentage of the residents of the four jurisdictions wore face masks during the respective lockdown periods. If the level of lifting of community lockdown is high (which entails allowing for greater community contacts and re-opening of businesses and social activities, in comparison to what was allowed during the community lockdown period), the states of Arizona and Florida will record a devastating second wave of the pandemic by the end of 2020, while the state of New York and the entire US will record milder second waves. If the level of lifting for the community lockdown was mild (i.e., only allowing very limited community contacts and business activities, in comparison to the lockdown period), only the state of Florida will experience a second wave. The severity of the projected second wave depends on the level of lifting of the community lockdown. For instance, the projected second wave for Arizona and Florida, associated with moderate and high level of lifting of lockdown, will be more severe than their respective first wave. For high level of lifting of lockdown measures, the increased use of face masks after the lockdown period greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic. In particular, for this high lifting scenario, none of the four jurisdictions will experience a second wave if half of their residents wear face masks consistently after their respective lockdown period). A testing strategy that increases the maximum detection rate of asymptomatic infected individuals (followed by contact tracing and self-isolation of the detected cases) greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic in all four jurisdictions, particularly if also combined with universal face mask use strategy. Universal use of face masks in public, with at least moderate level of compliance, could halt the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19, in addition to averting the potential for (or severity of) a second wave of the pandemic in each of the four jurisdictions.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Matrajt ◽  
Tiffany Leung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Old Adults ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Us

AbstractSARS-CoV-2 has infected over 140,000 people as of March 14, 2020. We use a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. We explore four social distancing strategies by reducing the contacts of adults over 60 years old, adults over 60 years old and children, all adults (25, 75 or 95% compliance), and everyone in the population. Our results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% even with modest compliance within adults as long as the intervention is kept in place, but the epidemic is set to rebound once the intervention is lifted. Our models suggest that social distancing interventions will buy crucial time but need to occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Taxing stock transfers in the first golden age of financial capitalism: political salience and the limits on the power of finance

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 503-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elsa Massoc
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
The State ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Privileged Position ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financial Transactions ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
Financial Capitalism

Abstract The current debate about taxing financial transactions is often presented as a brand new one. It is not. At the turn of the 19th century, a similar tax was debated in France and the US Financial actors fought the tax mightily. Those actors were very powerful. Yet, they lost. A tax on stock transfers (STT) was established. Why? Through a comparative analysis of France and the State of New York, this article argues that the tax was adopted because politicians interested in capitalizing on public discontent endeavored to publicize and frame the STT in simple and antagonizing terms. Strong but heterogeneous public hostility against finance got focused on the explicitly politicized issue of the tax. Political salience disrupted the logics of ‘quiet politics’ and momentarily undermined the privileged position of finance. Despite intense lobbying and threats to relocate from financiers, elected officials chose to vote for the STT.

scholarly journals Human agency and infection rates: Implications for social distancing during epidemics

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0243699
Author(s):  
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Specific Level ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Social Settings ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Almost All

Social distancing is an important measure in controlling epidemics. This paper presents a simple theoretical model focussed on the implications of the wide range in interaction rates between individuals, both within the workplace and in social settings. The model is based on well-mixed populations and so is not intended for studying geographic spread. The model shows that epidemic growth rate is largely determined by the upper interactivity quantiles of society, implying that the most efficient methods of epidemic control are interaction capping approaches rather than overall reductions in interaction. The theoretical model can also be applied to look at aspects of the dynamics of epidemic progression under various scenarios. The theoretical model suggests that with no intervention herd immunity would be achieved with a lower overall infection rate than if variation in interaction rate is ignored, because by this stage almost all the most interactive members of society would have had the infection; however the overall mortality with such an approach is very high. Scenarios for mitigation and suppression suggest that, by using interactivity capping, it should be possible to control an epidemic without extreme sanctions on the majority of the population if R0 of the uncontrolled infection is 2.4. However to control the infection rate to a specific level will always require measures to be switched on and off and for this reason elimination is likely to be a less costly policy in the long run. While social distancing alone can be used for elimination, it would not on its own be an efficient mechanism to prevent reinfection. The use of robust testing, quarantining, and contact tracing would strengthen any social distancing measures, speed up elimination, and be a better tool for the prevention of infection or reinfection. Because the analysis presented here is theoretical, and not data-driven, it is intended to be a stimulus for further data-collection, particularly on individual interactivity levels, and for more comprehensive modelling which takes account of the type of heterogeneity discussed here. While there are some clear lessons from the simple model presented here, policy makers should have these tested and validated by epidemiological specialists before acting on them.

scholarly journals The COVID States Project #26: Trajectory of COVID-19-related behaviors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lazer ◽  
Mauricio Santillana ◽  
Roy H. Perlis ◽  
Alexi Quintana ◽  
Katherine Ognyanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Upper Midwest ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Current State ◽  
Change Behavior ◽  
Current Prevalence ◽  
The Us ◽  
National Trends

The current state of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is dire, with circumstances in the Upper Midwest particularly grim. In contrast, multiple countries around the world have shown that temporary changes in human behavior and consistent precautions, such as effective testing, contact tracing, and isolation, can slow transmission of COVID-19, allowing local economies to remain open and societal activities to approach normalcy as of today. These include island countries such as New Zealand, Taiwan, Iceland and Australia, and continental countries such as Norway, Uruguay, Thailand, Finland, and South Korea. These successes demonstrate that coordinated action to change behavior can control the pandemic. In this report, we evaluate how the human behaviors that have been shown to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 have evolved across the US since April, 2020.Our report is based on surveys that the COVID States Project has been conducting approximately every month since April in all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. We address four primary questions:1) What are the national trends in social distancing behaviors and mask wearing since April?2) What are the trends among particular population subsets?3) What are the trends across individual states plus DC?4) What is the relationship, at the state level, between social distancing behaviors and mask wearing with the current prevalence of COVID-19?

scholarly journals Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (26) ◽  
pp. 14857-14863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renyi Zhang ◽  
Yixin Li ◽  
Annie L. Zhang ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Mario J. Molina
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Protective Measure ◽  
Airborne Transmission ◽  
Social Distancing

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 75,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

Pandemic Reemergence and Four Waves of Excess Mortality Coinciding With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan: Insights for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-437
Author(s):  
Siddharth Chandra ◽  
Julia Christensen ◽  
Madhur Chandra ◽  
Nigel Paneth
Keyword(s):  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The State ◽  
Viral Pathogens ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
1918 Influenza

The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan’s experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.

Battling Silent Chaos: The Refrain and Decolonial Potentials

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-378
Author(s):  
Xhercis Méndez
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The State ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status ◽  
Sense Of Home

This article examines some of the ways in which Black and Brown young women and men within the context of the US are consistently confronted by the silences around state-sanctioned violence enacted on our bodies with impunity while even our playful sonoric outbursts are reconfigured as threats to the state. I argue that, different from Deleuze and Guattari's conceptualisation where the refrain functions to keep chaos at bay, the refrain produced by a group of Black and Brown youth at a ferry station in New York brings to the fore and into confrontation the very Codes that create a sense of ‘home’ and ‘security’ for some at the expense of their well-being and often lives. However it is from navigating, what I refer to as, silent chaos that this article seeks to explore the decolonial potential of the sonoric ‘disruptions' produced by these Black and Brown young women and men, in particular by examining how they challenge the status quo and highlight the urgent need for new systems of valuation that would serve to reconstitute their collective worth.

scholarly journals Self-Burnout – A New Path to the End of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B Shayak ◽  
Richard H Rand
Keyword(s):  
Social Mobility ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The Self ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Social ◽  
Linear Delay ◽  
Delay Differential

ABSTRACTIn this work we use mathematical modeling to describe a possible route to the end of COVID-19, which does not feature either vaccination or herd immunity. We call this route self-burnout. We consider a region with (a) no influx of corona cases from the outside, (b) extensive social distancing, though not necessarily a full lockdown, and (c) high testing capacity relative to the actual number of new cases per day. These conditions can make it possible for the region to initiate the endgame phase of epidemic management, wherein the disease is slowly made to burn itself out through a combination of social distancing, sanitization, contact tracing and preventive testing. The dynamics of the case trajectories in this regime are governed by a single-variable first order linear delay differential equation, whose stability criterion can be obtained analytically. Basis this criterion, we conclude that the social mobility restrictions should be such as to ensure that on the average, one person interacts closely (from the transmission viewpoint) with at most one other person over a 4-5 day period. If the endgame can be played out for a long enough time, we claim that the Coronavirus can eventually get completely contained without affecting a significant fraction of the region’s population. We present estimates of the duration for which the epidemic is expected to last, finding an interval of approximately 5-15 weeks after the self-burnout phase is initiated. South Korea, Austria, Australia, New Zealand and the states of Goa, Kerala and Odisha in India appear to be well on the way towards containing COVID by this method.

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