scholarly journals A Sparse Gaussian Network Model for Prediction the Growth Trend of COVID-19 Overseas Import Case: When can Hong Kong Lift the International Traffic Blockad?

Author(s):  
Miao Rui ◽  
Dang Qi ◽  
Liang Yong

The COVID-19 virus was first discovered from China. It has been widely spread internationally. Currently, compare with the rising trend of the overall international epidemic situation, China's domestic epidemic situation has been contained and shows a steady and upward trend. In this situation, overseas imports have become the main channel for china to increase the number of infected people. Therefore, how to track the spread channel of international epidemics and predict the growth of overseas case imports is become an open research question. This study proposes a Gaussian sparse network model based on lasso and uses Hong Kong as an example. To explore the COVID-19 virus from a network perspective and analyzes 75 consecutive days of COV-19 data in 188 countries and regions around the world. This article establishes an epidemic spread relationship network between Hong Kong and various countries and regions around the world and build a regression model based on network information to fit Hong Kong's COV-19 epidemic growth data. The results show that the regression model based on the relationship network can better fit the existing cumulative number growth curve. After combining the SEIJR model, we predict the future development trend of cumulative cases in Hong Kong (without blocking international traffic). Based on the prediction results, we suggest that Hong Kong can lift the international traffic blockade from early to mid-June

2009 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 549-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
HAN-LIN LI ◽  
YU-CHIEN KO

A nation's competitiveness has become more and more important in forming government strategy and business decision making. This study proposes an optimization model, instead of regression model or neural network model, to induce rules for dynamic nations' competitiveness based on the Major Competitiveness Indicators of the World Competitiveness Yearbook. Fourteen attributes are used to form the dynamic rules expressed in "IF…THEN…" forms. According to the induced rules, the strategic implications are suggested for various groups of nations to improve or to sustain their competitiveness.


ALQALAM ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Budi Harsanto

The fall of Enron, Lehman Brothers and other major financial institution in the world make researchers conduct various studies about crisis. The research question in this study is, from Islamic economics and business standpoint, why the global financial crisis can happen repeatedly. The purpose is to contribute ideas regarding Islamic viewpoint linked with the global financial crisis. The methodology used is a theoretical-reflective to various article published in academic journals and other intellectual resources with relevant themes. There are lots of analyses on the causes of the crisis. For discussion purposes, the causes divide into two big parts namely ethics and systemic. Ethics contributed to the crisis by greed and moral hazard as a theme that almost always arises in the study of the global financial crisis. Systemic means that the crisis can only be overcome with a major restructuring of the system. Islamic perspective on these two aspect is diametrically different. At ethics side, there is exist direction to obtain blessing in economics and business activities. At systemic side, there is rule of halal and haram and a set of mechanism of economics system such as the concept of ownership that will early prevent the seeds of crisis. Keywords: Islamic economics and business, business ethics, financial crisis 


Author(s):  
Gerald Pratley

PRODUCTION ACTIVITY It was not so many years ago it seems when speaking of motion pictures from Asia meant Japanese films as represented by Akira Kurosawa and films from India made by Satyajit Ray. But suddenly time passes and now we are impressed and immersed in the flow of films from Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, South Korea, the Philippines, with Japan a less significant player, and India and Pakistan more prolific than ever in making entertainment for the mass audience. No one has given it a name or described it as "New Wave," it is simply Asian Cinema -- the most exciting development in filmmaking taking place in the world today. In China everything is falling apart yet it manages to hold together, nothing works yet it keeps on going, nothing is ever finished or properly maintained, and yes, here time does wait for every man. But as far...


1998 ◽  
Vol 37 (4I) ◽  
pp. 181-201
Author(s):  
John Williamson

This paper aims to explore Pakistan's geo-economic options in the difficult situation that confronts following the easing of sanctions, which added acute balance of payments pressures to its existing ailments of near-stagnant exports, a lower growth trend than in preceding decades, an unattractive climate for foreign investment, and weak social indicators. The first question explored is whether Pakistan has any opportunity of participating in a regional trade grouping. It is argued that the only conceivable way of achieving this would involve the development of SAARC, which would demand a profound transformation of Indo-Pakistani relations (though one no more profound than that realised in Franco-German relations since the founding of what is now known as the European Union). One benefit of achieving deep integration through SAARC is that this would create the possibility of Pakistan developing a serious engineering industry far more rapidly than will otherwise happen. In the absence of deep integration in SAARC, it is argued that Pakistan's best option would be a policy close to unilateral free trade, so as to place it in a position to take advantage of whatever the next generation of labour-intensive activities demanded by the world economy proves to be. Under either of those scenarios, the reestablishment of a dynamic industrial sector will require the maintenance of a competitive exchange rate, something that, it is argued, is not necessarily guaranteed by floating. The paper also discusses the role of inward direct investment in contributing to the export success of East Asia, and considers whether the expatriate Pakistani community might be capable of playing a role comparable to that played by the overseas Chinese in nurturing the Chinese export expansion of the last two decades. It is suggested that such a hope was set back by the extra-legal attempt to renegotiate power tariffs with the independent power producers in the course of 1998, and that Pakistan needs to become a country of laws rather than discretion if foreign investors, including expatriate Pakistanis, are ever to find the country an attractive export platform. While more inward direct investment would almost certainly be beneficial, the same is not true for inward financial investment, where too large an inflow can easily expose a country to very significant risks, as the East Asian crisis showed. In the long run, Pakistan needs to be prepared to repel excessive capital inflows if they materialise; but its immediate problem is still balance of payments pressure, and this seems to demand targeting a major and sustained improvement in the current account over the next several years.


Author(s):  
Albert Saló ◽  
Laia López

Research Question: This analysis arises from the decision of the current local council of Barcelona regarding the postponement of the sporting mega-event ‘World Roller Games’, due to a lack of a social and sportive implication in this event. This research tries to shed some light on the matter and give evidence to the local council to become the world capital of skating. The research question is to analyse whether non-economic impacts could be relevant enough to organise a mega-event.Research Methods: The methodology is based on the perception and experience of spectators and participants on four main impacts (social, economic, sports city image and sports practice) using a survey from a National Roller Skating Championship in Spain, considering that this profile of respondents have a better knowledge of the current situation of this sport.Results and Findings: There are positive expected future consequences of this mega-event to be held in Barcelona in social and sportive terms. We can also conclude that the local council must still introduce some social and sportive policies in the city in order to improve the chances of success in social, sports practice and sportive brand image development.Implications: It is demonstrated that a mega-event should not be seen purely from a perspective of business generation, especially with minority sports like roller skating. There is a clear opportunity to develop social and sportive practice initiatives that can push social cohesion throughout the city thanks to a mega-event such as this one.


Author(s):  
You Chen ◽  
Yubo Feng ◽  
Chao Yan ◽  
Xinmeng Zhang ◽  
Cheng Gao

BACKGROUND Adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can affect COVID-19 growing trends, decrease the number of infected cases, and thus reduce mortality and healthcare demand. Almost all countries in the world have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread rate of COVID-19; however, it is unclear what are differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among these countries. OBJECTIVE We hypothesize that COVID-19 case growth data reveals the efficacy of NPIs. In this study, we conduct a secondary analysis of COVID-19 case growth data to compare the differences in the effectiveness of NPIs among 16 representative countries in the world. METHODS This study leverages publicly available data to learn patterns of dynamic changes in the reproduction rate for sixteen countries covering Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Furthermore, we model the relationships between the cumulative number of cases and the dynamic reproduction rate to characterize the effectiveness of the NPIs. We learn four levels of NPIs according to their effects in the control of COVID-19 growth and categorize the 16 countries into the corresponding groups. RESULTS The dynamic changes of the reproduction rate are learned via linear regression models for all of the studied countries, with the average adjusted R-squared at 0.96 and the 95% confidence interval as [0.94 0.98]. China, South Korea, Argentina, and Australia are at the first level of NPIs, which are the most effective. Japan and Egypt are at the second level of NPIs, and Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, and Spain, are at the third level. The US and UK have the most inefficient NPIs, and they are at the fourth level of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 case growth data provides evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of the NPIs. Understanding the differences in the efficacy of the NPIs among countries in the world can give guidance for emergent public health events. CLINICALTRIAL NA


Author(s):  
Tatiani De Azevedo Lobo ◽  
Marli M. Moraes Da Costa

Resumo: O presente ensaio busca apresentar e fomentar algumas questões pertinentes ao debate contemporâneo sobre a pobreza, demonstrando a importância do tema no cenário mundial. Para tanto, inicialmente discorre-se sobre a construção histórico-social da pobreza e suas características contemporâneas. Com efeito, aponta-se a limitação dos fatores tradicionalmente apresentados como causadores da pobreza, como cultura, genética, geografia etc. Além disso, apresentam-se as formas atuais de monitorar o fenômeno, como o coeficiente de Gini e o IDH. Posteriormente, aborda-se a distribuição mundial da pobreza. Nesse ponto, colaciona-se que a pobreza é um problema mundial. No entanto, é perceptível que o Sul ainda concentra maior número de indivíduos pobres do que o Norte. Na esteira dos últimos dados da pesquisa realizada pelas Nações Unidas, houve uma nítida ascensão do Sul, especialmente nos indicadores sociais ligados à educação. A seguir, trata-se do capital social e da Teoria das Capacidades, apresentando-se novas abordagens da pobreza. Assim, o capital social trata de uma ideia utilizada para verificar a rede de relacionamento dos indivíduos. Já a Teoria das Capacidades está ligada com a ideia de oportunidade da liberdade. Por fim, estuda-se as políticas públicas, bem como seu aspecto fragmentário. Conclui-se, assim, sobre a necessidade de implementação de políticas públicas elaboradas sob a égide de novos paradigmas, a fim de possibilitar o tratamento específico do fenômeno da pobreza, conforme as peculiaridades de cada local. Para tanto foi utilizado neste trabalho o método de abordagem hipotético-dedutivo, o método de procedimento monográfico e a técnica de pesquisa, operacionalizados por meio do emprego de vasta pesquisa bibliográfica. Abstract: This essay seeks to provide and foster some relevant to the contemporary debate on poverty issues, demonstrating the importance of the issue on the world stage. For this purpose, initially spoke about the historical and social construction of poverty and its contemporary features. Indeed, he pointed out the limitation of the factors traditionally presented as the cause of poverty, as a culture, genetics, geography, etc. Furthermore, we presented the current ways of monitoring the phenomenon, such as the Gini coefficient and the HDI. Subsequently addressed the global distribution of poverty. At this point, if collated that poverty is a worldwide problem. However, it is apparent that the South still more concentrated than the poor North individuals. In the wake of recent data from research conducted by the United Nations, there was a sharp rise in the South, especially in social indicators related to education. Next, we treated the capital and the Theory of Capabilities, presenting new approaches to poverty. Thus, social capital is an idea used to verify the relationship network of individuals. Already Capabilities Theory is linked with the idea of freedom of opportunity. Finally, we studied public policy, as well as its fragmentary appearance. Thus, it is concluded on the need to implement public policies prepared under the aegis of new paradigms to enable specific treatment of the phenomenon of poverty, according to the peculiarities of each site. For that was used in this work the method of hypothetical-deductive approach, the method of procedure and the monographic research technique, operationalized through the use of extensive academic research.


Author(s):  
Matthew A. Shadle

In recent years the economy has become globalized. Globalization is the increased flow of goods, services, capital, people, and culture facilitated by innovations in transportation and communication technologies. This chapter examines the phenomenon of globalization and its impact on Catholic social teaching. It looks, in particular, at Pope Benedict XVI’s encyclical Caritas in Veritate. Pope Benedict criticizes how the current global economy exploits and excludes vulnerable populations around the world. Caritas in Veritate further develops the communio framework initiated by John Paul II and proposes that the communion of the three Persons of the Trinity provides a model for the shape globalization should take, recognizing unity in the midst of diversity. The chapter also looks at how Catholic social thought itself is globalizing, examining in particular the work of Mary Mee-Yin Yuen from Hong Kong and Stan Chu Ilo from Nigeria.


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