Spring Weather and COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S.

AbstractThis study used statistically robust regression models to control for a large set of confounders (including county-level time-invariant factors and time trends, regional-level daily variation, state-level social distancing measures, ultraviolet light, and levels of ozone and fine particulate matter, PM2.5) to estimate a reliable rather than simple regression for the impact of weather on the most accurately measured outcome of COVID-19, death. When the average minimum temperature within a five-day window increased by one degree Fahrenheit in spring 2020, daily death rates in northern U.S. counties increased by an estimated 5.1%. When ozone concentration over a five-day window rose by one part per billion, daily death rates in southern U.S. counties declined by approximately 2.0%. Maximum temperature, precipitation, PM2.5, and ultraviolet light did not significantly associate with COVID-19 mortality. The mechanism that may drive the observed association of minimum temperature on COVID-19 deaths in spring months may be increased mobility and contacts. The effect of ozone may be related to its disinfectant properties, but this requires further confirmation.

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Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/8881118 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-15

Author(s):

Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽

Yasasna V. Amaratunga ◽

Anushka Perera ◽

Imiya M. Chathuranika ◽

Anura S. Gunathilake ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Winter Season ◽

Future Climate ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Northern Thailand ◽

The Impact

Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners.

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Treeline dynamics with climate change at the central Nepal Himalaya

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-10-1277-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 1277-1290 ◽

Cited By ~ 69

Author(s):

N. P. Gaire ◽

M. Koirala ◽

D. R. Bhuju ◽

H. P. Borgaonkar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Plant Density ◽

Elevation Gradient ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

High Mountain ◽

Nepal Himalaya ◽

Central Nepal ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Treeline shifting in tandem with climate change has widely been reported from various parts of the world. In Nepal, several impacts of climate change on the physical environment have been observed, but study on the biological impacts is lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline in the high mountain slope of Kalchuman Lake (3750–4003 m a.s.l.) area of Manaslu Conservation Area in the central Nepal Himalaya to explore the impact of climate change on the treeline dynamic. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, > 250 m long) were laid which included treeline as well as tree species limit. Ecological mapping of all individuals of dominant trees Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 years) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 years). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (< 50 years) indicating its high recruitment rate. Population age structure along the elevation gradient revealed an upward shifting of A. spectabilis at the rate of 2.61 m year-1 since AD 1850. The upper distribution limit of B. utilis was found to be stagnant in the past few decades. An increment in plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. The temporal growth of A. spectabilis was correlated negatively with the monthly mean and minimum temperature of June to September of the current and previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively correlated with August precipitation and monthly maximum temperature of the month of the current year. The growth and regeneration of A. spectabilis was more sensitive to maximum and minimum temperature rather than average temperature. The growth of the B. utilis was mainly limited by moisture stress during the pre-monsoon season. As these two species presented species-specific responses to climate change with differential pattern in regeneration condition, much wider differences are anticipated in their population status as climate continues to change throughout the century.

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Towards New Horizons: Climate Trends in Europe Increase the Environmental Suitability for Permanent Populations of Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Pathogens ◽

10.3390/pathogens10020095 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 95

Author(s):

Natalia Fernández-Ruiz ◽

Agustín Estrada-Peña

Keyword(s):

Water Vapor ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Trends ◽

The Balkans ◽

Environmental Suitability ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Hyalomma Marginatum ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Impact

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of Hyalomma marginatum, the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970–2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for H. marginatum, while keeping its “historical” distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for H. marginatum and its associated pathogens.

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Avoidable Mortality Attributable to Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Australia

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18010254 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 254

Author(s):

Ivan C. Hanigan ◽

Richard A. Broome ◽

Timothy B. Chaston ◽

Martin Cope ◽

Martine Dennekamp ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Particulate Matter ◽

Fine Particulate Matter ◽

Weighted Average ◽

Attributable Mortality ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Avoidable Mortality ◽

Death Rates ◽

Fine Particulate ◽

The Impact

Ambient fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) air pollution increases premature mortality globally. Some PM2.5 is natural, but anthropogenic PM2.5 is comparatively avoidable. We determined the impact of long-term exposures to the anthropogenic PM component on mortality in Australia. PM2.5-attributable deaths were calculated for all Australian Statistical Area 2 (SA2; n = 2310) regions. All-cause death rates from Australian mortality and population databases were combined with annual anthropogenic PM2.5 exposures for the years 2006–2016. Relative risk estimates were derived from the literature. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were estimated in each SA2 using a satellite and land use regression model for Australia. PM2.5-attributable mortality was calculated using a health-impact assessment methodology with life tables and all-cause death rates. The changes in life expectancy (LE) from birth, years of life lost (YLL), and economic cost of lost life years were calculated using the 2019 value of a statistical life. Nationally, long-term population-weighted average total and anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations were 6.5 µg/m3 (min 1.2–max 14.2) and 3.2 µg/m3 (min 0–max 9.5), respectively. Annually, anthropogenic PM2.5-pollution is associated with 2616 (95% confidence intervals 1712, 3455) deaths, corresponding to a 0.2-year (95% CI 0.14, 0.28) reduction in LE for children aged 0–4 years, 38,962 (95%CI 25,391, 51,669) YLL and an average annual economic burden of $6.2 billion (95%CI $4.0 billion, $8.1 billion). We conclude that the anthropogenic PM2.5-related costs of mortality in Australia are higher than community standards should allow, and reductions in emissions are recommended to achieve avoidable mortality.

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Cultural values predict national COVID-19 death rates

SN Social Sciences ◽

10.1007/s43545-021-00080-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Damian J. Ruck ◽

Joshua Borycz ◽

R. Alexander Bentley

Keyword(s):

Cultural Values ◽

Cultural Context ◽

State Level ◽

Population Level ◽

World Values Survey ◽

Death Rates ◽

Trust In Institutions ◽

National Response ◽

The Difference ◽

The Impact

AbstractNational responses to a pandemic require populations to comply through personal behaviors that occur in a cultural context. Here we show that aggregated cultural values of nations, derived from World Values Survey data, have been at least as important as top-down government actions in predicting the impact of COVID-19. At the population level, the cultural factor of cosmopolitanism, together with obesity, predict higher numbers of deaths in the first two months of COVID-19 on the scale of nations. At the state level, the complementary variables of government efficiency and public trust in institutions predict lower death numbers. The difference in effect between individual beliefs and behaviors, versus state-level actions, suggests that open cosmopolitan societies may face greater challenges in limiting a future pandemic or other event requiring a coordinated national response among the population. More generally, mass cultural values should be considered in crisis preparations.

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Growth and Yield of Maize Using CERES-Maize Model under Temperate Kashmir

Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology ◽

10.9734/cjast/2019/v35i130166 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bilal Ahmad Lone ◽

Shivam Tripathi ◽

Asma Fayaz ◽

Purshotam Singh ◽

Sameera Qayoom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Growth And Yield ◽

Weather Data ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Food ◽

Process Based Models

Climate variability has been and continues to be, the principal source of fluctuations in global food production in countries of the developing world and is of serious concern. Process-based models use simplified functions to express the interactions between crop growth and the major environmental factors that affect crops (i.e., climate, soils and management), and many have been used in climate impact assessments. Average of 10 years weather data from 1985 to 2010, maximum temperature shows an increasing trend ranges from 18.5 to 20.5°C.This means there is an increase of 2°C within a span of 25 years. Decreasing trend was observed with respect to precipitation was observed with the same data. The magnitude of decrease was from 925 mm to 650 mm of rainfall which is almost decrease of 275 mm of rainfall in 25 years. Future climate for 2011-2090 from A1B scenario extracted from PRECIS run shows that overall maximum and minimum temperature increase by 5.39°C (±1.76) and 5.08°C (±1.37) also precipitation will decrease by 3094.72 mm to 2578.53 (±422.12) The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate variability and change on maize growth and yield of Srinagar Kashmir. Two enhanced levels of temperature (maximum and minimum by 2 and 4°C) and CO2 enhanced by 100 ppm & 200 ppm were used in this study with total combinations of 9 with one normal condition. Elevation of maximum and minimum temperature by 4°C anthesis and maturity of maize was earlier 14 days with a deviation of 18% and 26 days with a deviation of 20% respectively. Increase in temperature by 2 to 4°C alone or in combination with enhanced levels of CO2 by 100 and 200 ppm the growth and yield of maize was drastically declined with an reduction of about 40% in grain yield. Alone enhancement of CO2 at both the levels fails show any significant impact on maize yield.

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The Impact of Different Phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon on Goiás State Rainfalls and Temperature Characteristics Across Three Decades

10.21203/rs.3.rs-762347/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

David Henriques da Matta ◽

Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho ◽

Leydson Lara dos Santos ◽

Luis Fernando Stone ◽

Alexandre Bryan Heinemann

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

La Niña ◽

El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽

La Nina ◽

The Impact

Abstract Rainfall and temperature are the two key parameters of crop development. Studying the characteristics of these parameters under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions is important to better understand the impacts of the different phases of this phenomenon (El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña conditions) on agriculture. This study analyzes 32 years (1980–2011) of climatic data from 128 weather stations across Goiás State in Brazil to determine the behavior of temperature and rainfall time series over three periods (1980–1989; 1990–1999 and 2000–2011) under El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña conditions. The analysis revealed no major impacts of ENSO conditions on accumulated rainfall characteristics, a feature particularly marked in the most recent period (2000–2011). ENSO impacting temperature was identified but presented considerable variability across the periods investigated. These impacts were marked in the first two periods as for maximum temperature and increased from the first to the last period as for minimum temperature. These features were noticed in both analyses in the entire Goiás State and most of the investigated mega-regions, except for the East and Northeast mega-regions as for minimum temperature. There were increases in maximum temperature values throughout the rainfed season (October to March) for all ENSO conditions and investigated periods. Minimum temperature also increased across the three investigated periods, and this was marked in the beginning of the rainfed season (October) under El Niño and Neutral conditions.

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Investigation of Low-Cost and Optical Particulate Matter Sensors for Ambient Monitoring

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11101040 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1040

Author(s):

Mariusz Rogulski ◽

Artur Badyda

Keyword(s):

Particulate Matter ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Low Cost ◽

Reference Station ◽

Correction Function ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Large Set ◽

Campaign Evaluation ◽

The Impact

This article presents a long-term evaluation of low-cost particulate matter (PM) sensors in a field measurements campaign. Evaluation was performed in two phases. During the first five months of the campaign, two PM sensors were simultaneously compared with the results from the reference air quality monitoring station in various atmospheric conditions—from the days with freezing cold (minimum temperature below −10 °C) and high relative humidity (up to 95%) to the days with the maximum temperature above 30 °C and low relative humidity (at the level of 25%). Based on the PM10 measurements, the correlation coefficients for both devices in relation to the reference station were determined (r = 0.91 and r = 0.94, respectively), as well as the impact of temperature and relative humidity on measurements from the low-cost sensors in relation to the reference values. The correction function was formulated based on this large set of low-cost PM10 measurements and referential values. The effectiveness of the corrective function was verified during the second measurement campaign carried out in the city of Nowy Sącz (located in southern Poland) for the same five months in the following year. The absolute values of the long-term percentage errors obtained after adjustment were reduced to a maximum of about 20%, and the average percentage errors were usually around 10%.

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Effect of temperature variation on Aman and Boro rice production of Barisal division in Bangladesh

Progressive Agriculture ◽

10.3329/pa.v30i1.42216 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (1) ◽

pp. 95-103

Author(s):

J Karmokar ◽

MM Billah ◽

MA Haque

Keyword(s):

Temperature Variation ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Rice Production ◽

Series Data ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

The Impact ◽

Boro Rice

A study was undertaken to study the impact of seasonal temperature variation on Aman and Boro rice production in Barisal division of Bangladesh. The study revealed that the relationship between changing patterns of seasonal mean temperature and yield of rice, which illustrates the average mean temperature for the correlation of time series data from 1958-2008. The regression model is used to analyze the different temperature trends, and to identify the possible factors and causes of these differences. The value of t-statistic for slope and p-value for different regression equations are estimated. Results show that the average maximum temperature is risk increasing for Boro, while it is risk decreasing for Aman for the period of 2006-2008. Besides, minimum temperature is risk increasing for Boro during 1994-2008 but it is risk decreasing for Aman except the year 1998. We observed that the summer temperature has been rising up during the period 1958-1974 and fallen down for 1992-2008. The average annual temperature changes from 0.5˚C to 1˚C over the period from 2005 to 2008 which impact on Aman and Boro rice yield. Therefore, the predictive approach provides an outline for future risk of the minimum temperature that has the impact on rice yield than maximum temperature, which can be used for rice production for its better management strategies. Progressive Agriculture 30 (1): 95-103, 2019

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Influence of prevailing weather parameters on population dynamics of spotted stem borer, Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) and its natural enemies on maize in Haryana

Journal of Agrometeorology ◽

10.54386/jam.v22i3.191 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 295-304

Author(s):

GAURAV SINGH ◽

MAHA SINGH JAGLAN ◽

TARUN VERMA ◽

SHIVANI KHOKHAR

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Chilo Partellus ◽

Natural Enemies ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Significant Positive Correlation ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Positive Correlation ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Weather Parameters ◽

Average Minimum Temperature

The experiment was conducted at CCS Haryana Agricultural University Regional Research Station, Karnal to ascertain the influence of prevailing meteorological parameters on population dynamics of Chilo partellus and its natural enemies on maize during Kharif, 2017. Maximum oviposition (0.75 egg masses per plant) was recorded during 28th standard meteorological week (SMW) whereas larval population was at peak during 31st SMW (3.8 larvae per plant). Cumulative (47.5%) and fresh plant infestation (11.5%) were maximum during 34th and 28th SMW, respectively. Maximum egg parasitisation (6.53%) by Trichogramma sp. and larval parasitisation (31.64%) by Cotesia flavipes was recorded during 28th and 33rd SMW, respectively. Changes in pest population were correlated and regressed with weather parameters. Egg and larval populations of C. partellus and parasitisation by Trichogramma sp. exhibited significant positive correlation with average minimum temperature whereas C. flavipes exhibited significant negative correlation with average maximum temperature (r = -0.741) and highly significant positive correlation with evening relative humidity (r = 0.695). Plant infestation and dead heart formation were significantly correlated with average minimum temperature and non-significantly correlated with all other weather parameters. The multiple linear regression analysis explained the variability due to various weather parameters. This information can be utilised while formulating integrated management tactics against this pest.

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