scholarly journals Towards New Horizons: Climate Trends in Europe Increase the Environmental Suitability for Permanent Populations of Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Natalia Fernández-Ruiz ◽  
Agustín Estrada-Peña
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Environmental Suitability ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Hyalomma Marginatum ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of Hyalomma marginatum, the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970–2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for H. marginatum, while keeping its “historical” distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for H. marginatum and its associated pathogens.

scholarly journals A pragmatic approach for analysis of long-term climate trends for apple growing regions of Himachal Pradesh, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1445-1451
Author(s):  
Arundhati ◽  
R. M. Bhagat
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Himachal Pradesh ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Chilling Hours ◽  
The Impact

The study assessed the long-term climate as well as the area and production trends for four representative decades (1985-2020) in three apple growing districts of Himachal Pradesh, India with the objective of understanding the impact of climate change on apple crop. A long term database was prepared for minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and rainfall, besides area and production for four decades for three districts of Himachal Pradesh, India. Trend analysis indicated that the temperature in apple growing regions of generally showed an increasing trend, whereas, decreasing trend was observed in the precipitation. The minimum temperature in apple growing regions of Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown an increase of 0.82º C, 1.09 º C and 0.03 ºC, respectively and the precipitation (rainfall) in the Kullu, Shimla and Kinnaur districts has shown a decrease by 5.3 mm, 3.3 mm and 0.9 mm, respectively. Increased warming in the mountain regions is elevating temperatures resulting in the reduction of chilling hours,  pre-requisite for apple fruiting. However, in the higher elevation of Shimla, Kullu and Kinnaur districts, in spite of the increase in temperature, the areas are still suitable for apple farming. The study indicated that the area and production of all three districts of study are increasing because growers are slowly shifting to low chilling varieties (Varieties having chilling hours requirement less than 1000 hours).  Also, the present ecosystem at lower elevations will not support high chilling requirement varieties and apple growers will have to shift to either low chilling varieties or alternate crops.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽  
Yasasna V. Amaratunga ◽  
Anushka Perera ◽  
Imiya M. Chathuranika ◽  
Anura S. Gunathilake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
The Impact

Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners.

scholarly journals Jetstream and rainfall distribution in the Mediterranean region

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2469-2481 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gaetani ◽  
M. Baldi ◽  
G. A. Dalu ◽  
G. Maracchi
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Two Jets

Abstract. This is a study on the impact of the jetstream in the Euro-Atlantic region on the rainfall distribution in the Mediterranean region; the study, based on data analysis, is restricted to the Mediterranean rainy season, which lasts from September to May. During this season, most of the weather systems originate over the Atlantic, and are carried towards the Mediterranean region by the westerly flow. In the upper troposphere of the Euro-Atlantic region this flow is characterized by two jets: the Atlantic jet, which crosses the ocean with a northeasterly tilt, and the African jet, which flows above the coast of North Africa. This study shows that the cross-jet circulation of the Atlantic jet favors storm activity in its exit region, while the cross-jet circulation of the African jet suppresses this kind of activity in its entrance region, with the 1st jet-stormtrack covariance mode explaining nearly 50% of the variability. It follows that the rainfall distribution downstream to these cross-jet circulations is strongly influenced by their relative positions. Specifically, in fall, rainfall is abundant in the western Mediterranean basin (WM), when the Atlantic jet is relatively strong but its northeasterly tilt is small, and the African jet is in its easternmost position. In winter, rainfall is abundant in the eastern Mediterranean basin (EM); this is when the Atlantic jet reaches the Scandinavian peninsula and the African jet is in its westernmost position. In spring, when the two jets weaken, the Atlantic jet retreats over the ocean, but the African jet stays in its winter position, rainfall is abundant in the Alpine region and in the Balkans. In addition, the covariance between precipitation and the jetstream has been evaluated. In fall, the latitudinal displacement of the Atlantic jet and the longitudinal displacement of the African jet modulate rainfall anomalies in the WM, with 38% explained covariance. In winter, the latitudinal displacement of the Atlantic jet produces rainfall anomalies in the western and central Mediterranean, with 45% explained covariance. In spring, the latitudinal displacement of the African jet produces rainfall anomalies, with 38% explained covariance.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Trends on a Tick Affecting Public Health: A Retrospective Modeling Approach for Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. e0125760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustín Estrada-Peña ◽  
José de la Fuente ◽  
Tamara Latapia ◽  
Carmelo Ortega
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Hyalomma Marginatum ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Spring Weather and COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed M. Karimi ◽  
Mahdi Majbouri ◽  
Kelsey White ◽  
Bert Little ◽  
W. Paul McKinney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ultraviolet Light ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
State Level ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Average Minimum Temperature ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study used statistically robust regression models to control for a large set of confounders (including county-level time-invariant factors and time trends, regional-level daily variation, state-level social distancing measures, ultraviolet light, and levels of ozone and fine particulate matter, PM2.5) to estimate a reliable rather than simple regression for the impact of weather on the most accurately measured outcome of COVID-19, death. When the average minimum temperature within a five-day window increased by one degree Fahrenheit in spring 2020, daily death rates in northern U.S. counties increased by an estimated 5.1%. When ozone concentration over a five-day window rose by one part per billion, daily death rates in southern U.S. counties declined by approximately 2.0%. Maximum temperature, precipitation, PM2.5, and ultraviolet light did not significantly associate with COVID-19 mortality. The mechanism that may drive the observed association of minimum temperature on COVID-19 deaths in spring months may be increased mobility and contacts. The effect of ozone may be related to its disinfectant properties, but this requires further confirmation.

scholarly journals Treeline dynamics with climate change at the central Nepal Himalaya

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1277-1290 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. P. Gaire ◽  
M. Koirala ◽  
D. R. Bhuju ◽  
H. P. Borgaonkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Plant Density ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Central Nepal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Treeline shifting in tandem with climate change has widely been reported from various parts of the world. In Nepal, several impacts of climate change on the physical environment have been observed, but study on the biological impacts is lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline in the high mountain slope of Kalchuman Lake (3750–4003 m a.s.l.) area of Manaslu Conservation Area in the central Nepal Himalaya to explore the impact of climate change on the treeline dynamic. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, > 250 m long) were laid which included treeline as well as tree species limit. Ecological mapping of all individuals of dominant trees Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 years) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 years). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (< 50 years) indicating its high recruitment rate. Population age structure along the elevation gradient revealed an upward shifting of A. spectabilis at the rate of 2.61 m year-1 since AD 1850. The upper distribution limit of B. utilis was found to be stagnant in the past few decades. An increment in plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. The temporal growth of A. spectabilis was correlated negatively with the monthly mean and minimum temperature of June to September of the current and previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively correlated with August precipitation and monthly maximum temperature of the month of the current year. The growth and regeneration of A. spectabilis was more sensitive to maximum and minimum temperature rather than average temperature. The growth of the B. utilis was mainly limited by moisture stress during the pre-monsoon season. As these two species presented species-specific responses to climate change with differential pattern in regeneration condition, much wider differences are anticipated in their population status as climate continues to change throughout the century.

scholarly journals Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Growth and Yield of Maize Using CERES-Maize Model under Temperate Kashmir

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Ahmad Lone ◽  
Shivam Tripathi ◽  
Asma Fayaz ◽  
Purshotam Singh ◽  
Sameera Qayoom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Process Based Models

Climate variability has been and continues to be, the principal source of fluctuations in global food production in countries of the developing world and is of serious concern. Process-based models use simplified functions to express the interactions between crop growth and the major environmental factors that affect crops (i.e., climate, soils and management), and many have been used in climate impact assessments. Average of 10 years weather data from 1985 to 2010, maximum temperature shows an increasing trend ranges from 18.5 to 20.5°C.This means there is an increase of 2°C within a span of 25 years. Decreasing trend was observed with respect to precipitation was observed with the same data. The magnitude of decrease was from 925 mm to 650 mm of rainfall which is almost decrease of 275 mm of rainfall in 25 years. Future climate for 2011-2090 from A1B scenario extracted from PRECIS run shows that overall maximum and minimum temperature increase by 5.39°C (±1.76) and 5.08°C (±1.37) also precipitation will decrease by 3094.72 mm to 2578.53 (±422.12) The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate variability and change on maize growth and yield of Srinagar Kashmir. Two enhanced levels of temperature (maximum and minimum by 2 and 4°C) and CO2 enhanced by 100 ppm & 200 ppm were used in this study with total combinations of 9 with one normal condition.  Elevation of maximum and minimum temperature by 4°C anthesis  and maturity of maize was earlier 14 days with a deviation of 18%  and  26 days with a deviation  of 20% respectively. Increase in temperature by 2 to 4°C alone or in combination with enhanced levels of CO2 by 100 and 200 ppm the growth and yield of maize was drastically declined with an reduction of about 40% in grain yield. Alone enhancement of CO2  at both the levels fails show any significant impact on maize yield.

scholarly journals The Impact of Different Phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon on Goiás State Rainfalls and Temperature Characteristics Across Three Decades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Henriques da Matta ◽  
Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho ◽  
Leydson Lara dos Santos ◽  
Luis Fernando Stone ◽  
Alexandre Bryan Heinemann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Rainfall and temperature are the two key parameters of crop development. Studying the characteristics of these parameters under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions is important to better understand the impacts of the different phases of this phenomenon (El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña conditions) on agriculture. This study analyzes 32 years (1980–2011) of climatic data from 128 weather stations across Goiás State in Brazil to determine the behavior of temperature and rainfall time series over three periods (1980–1989; 1990–1999 and 2000–2011) under El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña conditions. The analysis revealed no major impacts of ENSO conditions on accumulated rainfall characteristics, a feature particularly marked in the most recent period (2000–2011). ENSO impacting temperature was identified but presented considerable variability across the periods investigated. These impacts were marked in the first two periods as for maximum temperature and increased from the first to the last period as for minimum temperature. These features were noticed in both analyses in the entire Goiás State and most of the investigated mega-regions, except for the East and Northeast mega-regions as for minimum temperature. There were increases in maximum temperature values throughout the rainfed season (October to March) for all ENSO conditions and investigated periods. Minimum temperature also increased across the three investigated periods, and this was marked in the beginning of the rainfed season (October) under El Niño and Neutral conditions.

scholarly journals Occupancy Tax Within Tax Models of Nautical Tourism in the Mediterranean

Pomorstvo ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-181
Author(s):  
Luka Vukić ◽  
Pero Vidan ◽  
Eli Marušić
Keyword(s):  
Price Policy ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Revenue Growth ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

The existing tax models in nautical tourism, different for an individual country, contain various additional taxes already analyzed in scientific researches, while the characteristics and impacts of occupancy tax have been left neglected. The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of occupancy tax on the competitiveness of the price policy in nautical tourism within the Mediterranean countries, by performing the comparative analysis of tax models between the European Union member states and other Mediterranean countries. The results obtained have shown different and hardly comparable tax models, determined by the strategic orientation of the individual country in nautical tourism. The charges of the representatives of two target groups, the occupancy tax prices in Montenegro and similar models in Croatia and Greece have been compared, where the research findings indicated Montenegro as more competitive than the two other EU countries in all categories of the analysis. The obtained results have neglected other destinations comparative advantages mainly favorable to the EU countries having excellent development perspectives. The small scale participation of the occupancy tax in the overall tax model should not allow long-term outflow of the users in the European Union’s nautical tourism due to short-term revenue growth.

scholarly journals Identifying Local-Scale Weather Forcing Conditions Favorable to Generating Iberia’s Largest Fires

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inês Vieira ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

The Mediterranean region is characterized by the frequent occurrence of summer wildfires, representing an environmental and socioeconomic burden. Some Mediterranean countries (or provinces) are particularly prone to large fires, namely Portugal, Galicia (Spain), Greece, and southern France. Additionally, the Mediterranean basin corresponds to a major hotspot of climate change, and anthropogenic warming is expected to increase the total burned area due to fires in Mediterranean Europe. Here, we propose to classify summer large fires for fifty-four provinces of the Iberian Peninsula according to their local-scale weather conditions and fire danger weather conditions. A composite analysis was used to investigate the impact of local and regional climate drivers at different timescales, and to identify distinct climatologies associated with the occurrence of large fires. Cluster analysis was also used to identify a limited set of fire weather types, each characterized by a combination of meteorological conditions. For each of the provinces, two significant fire weather types were identified—one dominated by high positive temperature anomalies and negative humidity anomalies, and the other by intense zonal wind anomalies with two distinct subtypes in the Iberian Peninsula., allowing for the identification of three distinct regions.

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