scholarly journals Evaluation of Future Climate and Potential Impact on Streamflow in the Upper Nan River Basin of Northern Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Miyuru B. Gunathilake ◽  
Yasasna V. Amaratunga ◽  
Anushka Perera ◽  
Imiya M. Chathuranika ◽  
Anura S. Gunathilake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
The Impact

Water resources in Northern Thailand have been less explored with regard to the impact on hydrology that the future climate would have. For this study, three regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to project future climate of the upper Nan River basin. Future climate data of ACCESS_CCAM, MPI_ESM_CCAM, and CNRM_CCAM under Representation Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were bias-corrected by the linear scaling method and subsequently drove the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to simulate future streamflow. This study compared baseline (1988–2005) climate and streamflow values with future time scales during 2020–2039 (2030s), 2040–2069 (2050s), and 2070–2099 (2080s). The upper Nan River basin will become warmer in future with highest increases in the maximum temperature of 3.8°C/year for MPI_ESM and minimum temperature of 3.6°C/year for ACCESS_CCAM under RCP8.5 during 2080s. The magnitude of changes and directions in mean monthly precipitation varies, with the highest increase of 109 mm for ACESSS_CCAM under RCP 4.5 in September and highest decrease of 77 mm in July for CNRM, during 2080s. Average of RCM combinations shows that decreases will be in ranges of −5.5 to −48.9% for annual flows, −31 to −47% for rainy season flows, and −47 to −67% for winter season flows. Increases in summer seasonal flows will be between 14 and 58%. Projection of future temperature levels indicates that higher increases will be during the latter part of the 20th century, and in general, the increases in the minimum temperature will be higher than those in the maximum temperature. The results of this study will be useful for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset negative impacts of future changes in climate. In addition, the results will also be valuable for agriculturists and hydropower planners.

scholarly journals Future climate uncertainty and spatial variability over Tamilnadu State, India

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-185
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Climate Uncertainty

<div> <p>The present study analyses future climate uncertainty for the 21st century over Tamilnadu state for six weather parameters: solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall. The climate projection data was dynamically downscaled using high resolution regional climate models, PRECIS and RegCM4 at 0.22&deg;x0.22&deg; resolution. PRECIS RCM was driven by HadCM3Q ensembles (HQ0, HQ1, HQ3, HQ16) lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and RegCM4 driven by ECHAM5 LBCs for 130 years (1971-2100). The deviations in weather variables between 2091-2100 decade and the base years (1971-2000) were calculated for all grids of Tamilnadu for ascertaining the uncertainty. These deviations indicated that all model members projected no appreciable difference in relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. The temperature (maximum and minimum) however showed a definite increasing trend with 1.8 to 4.0&deg;C and 2.0 to 4.8&deg;C, respectively. The model members for rainfall exhibited a high uncertainty as they projected high negative and positive deviations (-379 to 854 mm). The spatial representation of maximum and minimum temperature indicated a definite rhythm of increment from coastal area to inland. However, variability in projected rainfall was noticed.</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using Multiple Global Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 2152-2166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Thi Oo ◽  
Win Win Zin ◽  
Cho Cho Thin Kyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Suitable Climate

Nowadays, the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability is affected by climate change. Therefore, the understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins. The main purpose of this study is to assess the projections of future climate across the Upper Ayeyarwady river basin for its sustainable development and management of water sector for this area. Global Ten climate Models available from CMIP5 represented by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report were bias corrected using linear scaling method to generate the model error. Among the GCMs, a suitable climate model for each station is selected based on the results of performance indicators (R2 and RMSE). Future climate data are projected based on the selected suitable climate models by using future climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to this study, future projection indicates to increase in precipitation amounts in the rainy and winter season and diminishes in summer season under all future scenarios. Based on the seasonal temperature changes analysis for all stations,  the future temperature are  predicted to steadily increase with higher rates during summer than the other two seasons and it can also be concluded that the monthly minimum temperature rise is a bit larger than the maximum temperature rise in all seasons.

scholarly journals Future Assessment of Precipitation and Temperature for Developing Urban Catchment Under Impact of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 3395-3404
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Time Slice ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Hadcm3 Model

In this study, the attempt is made to investigate the impact of future climate changes related to three weather parameter maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation for study area were projected for two future time slice (2017–2058), and (2059–2100) from the three Global Climate Models (GCMs), CanESM2, CGCM3 and HadCM3 under different representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The predictor variables are downloaded from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and simulations from the three Global Climate Models (GCMs), Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM3) and Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met Office (HadCM3) variability and changes in Tmax, Tmin and precipitation under different (RCPs) scenarios have been presented for two future time slice. The performance for three models showed maximum/minimum temperature increases in future for almost all the (RCPs) scenarios. Also precipitation of the entire catchment was found to increasing trends for all scenarios. In case of HadCM3 model, under RCP8.5 scenarios for the period (2017-2058), changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are forecasted as 0.72 °C, 1.42 °C, and 2.82 mm and for the period (2059-2100) are 1.16 °C, 2.14 °C, and 6.85 mm.The results obtained from HadCM3 model is higher side as compared with CanESM2, CGCM3.These results can provide understanding of the hydrologic role of future climate change scenarios, which is essential for probable impacts of climate change for planning and management of appropriate choice for designing the storm water drainage system and infrastructure for newly growing urbanization under climate change are of great concern to hydrologists, water managers, and policymakers

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Prem B. Parajuli ◽  
Avay Risal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

scholarly journals Impact of abiotic factors on build-up of citrus psylla, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama population in Punjab, India

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hijam S. Devi ◽  
D. R. Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Seasonal Abundance ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Diaphorina Citri ◽  
Citrus Psylla

Seasonal abundance of citrus psylla (Diaphorina citri) Kuwayama was studied on Kinnow mandarin under Punjab conditions during 2012 and 2013. Population of D. citri was present throughout the year but only adults found surviving during December and February. There was no nymphal population when maximum temperature was > 39°C or < 7°C. Two population peaks of nymphs wer e observed, first in April-May and second in August- September. Thereafter, there was abrupt decline in nymphal population during June and July during both the years when the weather conditions i.e. maximum, minimum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), rainfall (m m) and sunshine (hrs) ranged from 24.4-44, 22.4-31.8, 25.5-100, 0-108.0 and 0-13.5, respectively. Highest peaks of adult were found during May followed by June. With the decrease in temperature from the end of September, the population of D. citri started to decrease and reached its lowest during winter season. Correlation analysis for both the years indicated that maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine and rainfall were positively correlated with nymphal, adult and mixed population but the effect of rainfall on adult population was non-significant, while relative humidity was negatively correlated. The study is useful to find out the weak links of psyllid populations in relation to abiotic factors and that could be exploited to curb its infestation and disease transmission.

scholarly journals Development of a daily gridded precipitation data set for the Middle East

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 165-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Yatagai ◽  
P. Xie ◽  
P. Alpert
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Fertile Crescent ◽  
Precipitation Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We show an algorithm to construct a rain-gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation for the Middle East. One of the key points of our algorithm is to construct an accurate distribution of climatology. One possible advantage of this product is to validate high-resolution climate models and/or to diagnose the impact of climate changes on local hydrological resources. Many users are familiar with a monthly precipitation dataset (New et al., 1999) and a satellite-based daily precipitation dataset (Huffman et al., 2001), yet our data set, unlike theirs, clearly shows the effect of orography on daily precipitation and other extreme events, especially over the Fertile Crescent region. Currently the Middle-East precipitation analysis product is consisting of a 25-year data set for 1979–2003 based on more than 1300 stations.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

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