scholarly journals Epidemiology of the early COVID-19 epidemic in Orange County, California: comparison of predictors of test positivity, mortality, and seropositivity

Author(s):  
Daniel M. Parker ◽  
Tim Bruckner ◽  
Veronica M. Vieira ◽  
Catalina Medina ◽  
Vladimir N. Minin ◽  
...  

COVID-19 is one of the largest public health emergencies in modern history. Here we present a detailed analysis from a large population center in Southern California (Orange County, population of 3.2 million) to understand heterogeneity in risks of infection, test positivity, and death. We used a combination of datasets, including a population-representative seroprevalence survey, to assess the true burden of disease as well as COVID-19 testing intensity, test positivity, and mortality. In the first month of the local epidemic, case incidence clustered in high income areas. This pattern quickly shifted, with cases next clustering in much higher rates in the north-central area which has a lower socio-economic status. Since April, a concentration of reported cases, test positivity, testing intensity, and seropositivity in a north-central area persisted. At the individual level, several factors (e.g., age, race/ethnicity, zip codes with low educational attainment) strongly affected risk of seropositivity and death.

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 20190048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh ◽  
Boseung Choi ◽  
Eben Kenah ◽  
Grzegorz A. Rempała

In this paper, we show that solutions to ordinary differential equations describing the large-population limits of Markovian stochastic epidemic models can be interpreted as survival or cumulative hazard functions when analysing data on individuals sampled from the population. We refer to the individual-level survival and hazard functions derived from population-level equations as a survival dynamical system (SDS). To illustrate how population-level dynamics imply probability laws for individual-level infection and recovery times that can be used for statistical inference, we show numerical examples based on synthetic data. In these examples, we show that an SDS analysis compares favourably with a complete-data maximum-likelihood analysis. Finally, we use the SDS approach to analyse data from a 2009 influenza A(H1N1) outbreak at Washington State University.


1961 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Knight

1. Gunson's salivary chromosome preparations of Drosophila subobscura from widely separated sites in Scotland have been re-examined and inversions recorded according to the Mainx nomenclature.2. Sixty-four diploid sets only were available. Of these, thirty-seven sets were found to be structurally homozygous on all chromosomes.3. From Drumnadrochit in the north-central area of Scotland, the inversion found on the E-chromosome, so far as is known, has not previously been described. Its break-points have been noted, and the inversion is named E14.4. A strain of D. subobscura from the small western island of Iona was the only one found to be completely homozygous in the five long arms of the chromosome set.5. Samples of D. subobscura from two closely related localities in Midlothian, Scotland, also have been examined. Results are based on the analysis of 120 haploid sets in hybrids between the local race and the standard Küsnacht stock.6. A slight difference in type and frequency of inversions has been noted between the two populations. The inversion E1+2 was recorded from Dalkeith, but was absent at Heriot, while U1, present at Heriot, was replaced by UST at Dalkeith.7. The A-chromosome was structurally homozygous throughout.8. Scottish samples of D. subobscura are characterized by their qualitative simplicity of polymorphism, the variety of inversion types being small. Chromosome orders analysed have been compared with those occurring in Western Europe and Israel.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minyoung Lee ◽  
Soohyun Cho ◽  
Sang Min Lee

AbstractDevelopment of academic hatred was examined at four time points across 7 months among 1,015 South Korean high school students. A multilevel growth model showed that the baseline of, and change in, academic hatred varied across individuals and classrooms. At the individual level, gender, parents’ academic pressure, depression, and test anxiety were related to the initial level of academic hatred; gender and test anxiety were associated with a decrease in academic hatred over time. At the class level, lower socio-economic status and higher teachers’ autonomy support were associated with a lower baseline of academic hatred, and higher teachers’ autonomy support decreased academic hatred. Influence mechanisms of protective and risk factors on students’ academic hatred can be considered for strategic and policy interventions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 122-133
Author(s):  
Laramie Nicole Riggs

For years, researchers contended that early pregnancy was the primary determinant for poor life outcomes for adolescent mothers (Hayes, 1987, as cited in SmithBattle 2007, p 410). More recently, the flaws in these assumptions have surfaced as theories such as the general systems theory on human behavior are gaining traction. This states that from the individual level (social interactions, cultural beliefs and values, degree of self-efficacy) to the environmental level (family, peer groups, societal norms, social class, economic status, racism), the widening disparity along one’s developmental life course reveals outcomes unique to a person and their experiences (Coie et al., 1993, pp 1014, 1016). The intertwined nature of these systems, each of which will be discussed in further sections, have altered the direction of research concerning sources of poor life outcomes commonly attributed to adolescent motherhood.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charity Binka ◽  
Samuel H. Nyarko ◽  
Kofi Awusabo-Asare ◽  
David T. Doku

Background. This study sought to explore the barriers to the uptake of cervical cancer screening and treatment in the North Tongu district of Ghana. Methods. Twenty-five in-depth interviews were conducted, while three focus group discussions were held among respondents. The data were analysed with the R package for qualitative data analysis using a thematic analytical approach. Results. Low level of knowledge about the disease and screening services, personal or psychological convictions, and cost of screening and treatment coupled with a low level of income were the barriers at the individual level. Perceived health personnel attitude, perceived lack of privacy, and misdiagnosis were the barriers at the institutional level while the sociocultural belief system of the communities about the etiology of the disease was the barrier at the community level. Inadequate education about the disease, lack of funding and access to screening facilities also constrained screening and treatment at the policy level. Conclusions. Cervical cancer screening and treatment are constrained at multiple levels in rural Ghana. This study underscores the need to address the low uptake of cervical cancer screening and treatment at the individual, community, institutional, and policy levels simultaneously.


2004 ◽  
Vol 185 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas W. J. Wainwright ◽  
Paul G. Surtees

BackgroundAssociations have been demonstrated between contextual (area level) factors and a range of physical health outcomes, but their relationship with mental health outcomes is less well understood.AimsTo investigate the relative strength of association between individual and area-level demographic and socioeconomic factors and mood disorder prevalence in the UK.MethodCross-sectional data from 19 687 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk.ResultsArea deprivation was associated with current (12-month) mood disorders after adjusting for individual-level socio-economic status (OR for top v. bottom quartile of deprivation scores 1.29, 95% C11.1–1.5, P < 0.001). However, this association was small relative to those observed for individual marital and employment status. Significant residual area-level variation in current mood disorders (representing 3.6% of total variation, P=0.04) was largely accounted for by individual-level factors.ConclusionsThe magnitude of the association between socio-economic status and mood disorders is greater at the individual level than at the area level.


2017 ◽  
pp. 32-46
Author(s):  
Claus D. Hansen

The aim of this paper is threefold: First, the criticism of quantitative methods raised by feminist and gender researchers is reiterated and illustrated using gender differences in job attribute preferences as an example. Second, the paper compares this ‘standard quantitative methods’ approach to Geometric Data Analysis (GDA), an approach that e.g. makes use of principal components analysis. I argue that GDA breaks with many of the problematic features of traditional statistics by being multi-dimensional (as opposed to one-dimensional), having a statistical model formulated at the individual level (as opposed to treating individuals as mere ‘residuals’) and visualising the results (as opposed to just presenting the results exclusively in numbers). Third, the empirical analyses from the first part of the paper are then used as an example and analysed again, thereby introducing the basic concepts and principles which comprise GDA. Data used in the paper stem from the study Youth on the margin where a sample of young men and women from the North Denmark Region were asked to fill out a battery of job attribute preferences among other things. This is an important topic because such preferences are widely thought to be closely related to the continuing segregation of the Danish labour market.


Axon ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Barbara Savo

The horos was reported to Hiller von Gaertringer in June 1930 by Franz Gabriel Welter, engaged in excavations during the 1920s in the areas of Hyria and Livadi (Naxos). The document is remarkable for the definition of the concept of apotimema, the estimated value of properties given as security for the lease of property of a subject protected by the eponymous archon (orphans, widows and epikleroi). In this specific case, we have a pupillary apotimema: lands and the house, with the tiled roof, valued and placed as apotimema for the goods capitalised by the epitropos of Epiphron’s children. The capital loaned is 3,500 drachmas and the children would have obtained 400 drachmas as annual interest. Among the land pledged to guarantee the sum, the possessions in the localities of Elaious and Melanes are also mentioned, the latter’s toponym still in use for the village that is located in the north-central area of the island of Nassia.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 5829-5882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. S. Bennouna ◽  
V. Cachorro ◽  
M. A. Burgos ◽  
C. Toledano ◽  
B. Torres ◽  
...  

Abstract. This work examines the relationships between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Particulate Matter (PMX) parameters, based on long records (2003–2011) of two nearby sites from the AERONET and EMEP networks in the north-central area of Spain. The climatological annual cycle of PM10 and PM2.5 present a bimodality which might be partly due to desert dust intrusions, a pattern which does not appear in the annual cycle of the AOD. In the case of the AOD, this bimodality is likely to be masked because of the poor sampling of sunphotometer data as compared to PMX (67% of days against 90%), and this fact stresses the necessity of long-term observations. In monthly series, significant interannual variations are observed and most extrema coincide, however the bimodal shape remains relatively stable for PMX. Significant and consistent trends were found for both datasets likely associated to a decrease of desert dust apportionment until 2009. PM10 and AOD daily data are moderately correlated (0.56), a correlation improving for monthly means (0.70). In the case of strong desert dust events day-to-day correlation is not systematic, therefore an extensive analysis on PMX, fine-PM ratio, AOD and associated Ångström exponent (α) is carried out.


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