scholarly journals The unexpected dynamics of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil: Herd immunity versus interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daihai He ◽  
Yael Artzy-Randrup ◽  
Salihu S. Musa ◽  
Lewi Stone
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
The City ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractThe arrival of SARS-COV-2 in late March 2020 in the state of Amazonas, Brazil, captured worldwide attention and concern. The rapid growth of the epidemic, a health system that had collapsed, and mass gravesites for coping with growing numbers of dead, were broadcast by the media around the world. Moreover, a majority of the local Amazonian indigenous communities were physically distant from appropriate medical services, to the point where warnings of genocide were issued. In a recent Science paper (December 2020), Buss et al. reported that some 76% of the residents of the city of Manaus, the capital of Amazonas, had been infected by October 2020. This estimate of the COVID-19 attack rate was based on a seroprevalence analysis of blood donor data, which despite its shortcomings was thought to be a sufficiently reliable proxy of the larger population. An attack rate of this magnitude (76%) implied that herd immunity had already been reached and the community was relatively protected from further infection. Yet in December 2020, a harsh second wave of COVID-19 struck Manaus, and currently appears to be even larger than the first wave. Here we use mathematical modelling of mortality data in Manaus, and in various states of Brazil, to understand why a second wave appeared against all expectations. Our analysis is based on estimating a “flexible” reproductive number R0(t) from the mortality data, as it changes in time over the epidemic.

scholarly journals The World capital of reggaeton: Verbal framing of Medellin in online media discourse

Ricercare ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 56-71
Author(s):  
Mariia Mykhalonok
Keyword(s):  
Online Media ◽  
Media Discourse ◽  
Frame Semantics ◽  
Negative Stereotypes ◽  
Musical Genre ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
The City

This article examines linguistic framing of Medellin as the city of the musical genre reggaeton in online media discourse, drawing on Fillmore’s frame semantics theory (1977). The most salient frames applied towards Medellin are those of centrality, home, and music, whereby the city’s global significance as a musical hub is emphasized through the terms belonging to the frame of world. The use of components from the frames of crime and drugs suggests that the drug-related past of Medellin is integrated into its new cultural profile. Another part of the new Medellin brand are the city’s residents themselves, who are credited with supporting local reggaetonero/as, and are typically referred to with overtly positive vocabulary from the frames of love, help, and home. Although some texts evoke negative stereotypes about reggaeton, the media mostly present the Medellin reggaeton scene through the frames of success, power, and business.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals Dynamics of russian citizens’ social fears during the first and second waves of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Victor V. Ermolaev ◽  
Julia Voroncova ◽  
Daria K. Nasonova ◽  
Alena I. Chetverikova
Keyword(s):  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Media ◽  
Second Wave

Background. The study of the psychological characteristics of social fears during the first wave of COVID-19 indicated that Russian citizens were massively in a state of fear. The persisting threat of a pandemic throughout the year, the inconsistency of managerial decisions in the absence of a coherent strategy to combat COVID-19, obviously create growing social tension in Russia, which is projected onto the psychological level of the state of modern society. Objective. To identify the dynamics of social fears among Russian citizens during the first and second waves of COVID-19. Hypothesis: there is a tendency for the growth of social fears among Russian citizens during the second wave of COVID-19, while the media continues to form a depressive and depressing “picture of the world”. Design. Psychodiagnostics was carried out remotely using Google forms. Sample size: 497 people. At the first stage (the first wave — March / April, 2020), 253 people were tested. At the second stage (second wave — October / November, 2020), 244 people passed testing, of which 150 took part in the periods of both the first and second waves, and 94 — only during the second wave. At the third stage, statistical analysis was carried out in order to identify the dynamics of social fears. Results. From the moment COVID-19 began to the peak of the second wave, Russian citizens showed negative dynamics, characterized by: 1) an increase in the experience of social fears associated with failure and defeat, as well as rejection and suppression; 2) an increase in the imbalance of trust caused by the growth of trust in the world and others, as trustworthy sources of information about the current danger, against the background of a steadily reduced trust in oneself; 3) a decrease in optimism and faith in the future with an increase in the intensity of emotional stress, as well as a desire to delegate responsibility for the events of one’s own life; 4) a general decrease in efficiency (based on the results of self-report). Conclusion. The information broadcast by the media about COVID-19 has a systemic psychological impact through the demonstration of a pessimistic “picture of the world”, which, creating an aggressive information field literally enveloping the psyche, destroys its self-confidence, social ties and group cohesion, and also fills it social fears, increasing the sense of social deprivation. The intended consequences will send the psychological community to develop a predictive model for overcoming this situation. In our opinion, the main thing in the work with the consequences of the pandemic is psychological assistance, the basis of which should be the methods of correction of the cognitive-affective sphere of the individual — the return of self-confidence and the transformation of the “picture of the world” of the present and future into a positive one. Particular attention should be paid to increasing collective cohesion and setting group goals that outline the future positive “picture of the world” of Russian society

scholarly journals Epidemiology of the Zika virus outbreak in the Cabo Verde Islands, West Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Lourenço ◽  
Maria de Lourdes Monteiro ◽  
Tomás Valdez ◽  
Júlio Monteiro Rodrigues ◽  
Oliver G. Pybus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Single Wave ◽  
Cabo Verde ◽  
Small Observation

AbstractIntroductionThe Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the island nation of Cabo Verde was of unprecedented magnitude in Africa and the first to be associated with microcephaly in the continent.MethodsUsing a simple mathematical framework we present a first epidemiological assessment of attack and observation rates from 7,580 ZIKV notified cases and 18 microcephaly reports between July 2015 and May 2016.ResultsIn line with observations from the Americas and elsewhere, the single-wave Cabo Verdean ZIKV epidemic was characterized by a basic reproductive number of 1.85 (95% CI, 1.5 −2.2), with overall the attack rate of 51.1% (range 42.1 - 61.1) and observation rate of 2.7% (range 2.29 - 3.33).ConclusionCurrent herd-immunity may not be sufficient to prevent future small-to-medium epidemics in Cabo Verde. Together with a small observation rate, these results highlight the need for rapid and integrated epidemiological, molecular and genomic surveillance to tackle forthcoming outbreaks of ZIKV and other arboviruses.

scholarly journals The risk for a new COVID-19 wave – and how it depends on R0, the current immunity level and current restrictions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Britton ◽  
Pieter Trapman ◽  
Frank Ball
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The World ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Future Outbreak

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first wave, and yet other regions have started to see a second wave. The current immunity level î in a region is closely related to the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: a) the initial potential for COVID-19 in the region (often quantified by the basic reproduction number R0), and b) the timing, amount and effectiveness of preventive measures put in place. By means of a mathematical model including heterogeneities owing to age, social activity and susceptibility, and allowing for time-varying preventive measures, the risk for a new epidemic wave and its doubling time, and how they depend on R0, î and the overall effect of the current preventive measures, are investigated. Focus lies on quantifying the minimal overall effect of preventive measures pMin needed to prevent a future outbreak. The first result shows that the current immunity level î plays a more influential roll than when immunity is obtained from vaccination. Secondly, by comparing regions with different R0 and î it is shown that regions with lower R0 and low î may now need higher preventive measures (pMin) compared with other regions having higher R0 but also higher î, even when such immunity levels are far from herd immunity.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals The use of Exoticism Concept as Adaptive Approach in the Representation a Destination on the Official Websites: A case of DKI Jakarta

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Desloehal Djumrianti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital City ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Portal Site ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Large Scope ◽  
The Media ◽  
The City

Representation of a tourist destination on the media which able to reach around the world is very crucial in order to introduce and promote it to the large scope of the public. The internet, particularly website is one of the media to let people recognise and realise a destination as the place to visit. A study found most tourists visit and explore an official website and then to respond as if they were planning to travel to the destination (Jeon, et.al, 2017). This indicates that the official website still plays an important role in tourists’ decision making pre-visiting. Jakarta, for example, as one of a tourist destination, at once is also a capital city of Indonesia, central of business in Indonesia and a modern city. Therefore, the concepts of representation play an important role to depict Jakarta as a destination, for example, the use of themes to represent Jakarta as a holiday place on the website, such as focusing on the traditional and modern Jakarta (Djumrianti, 2016). Thus, the purpose of this paper is to analyse how the exoticism concept is used through twenty-five photos and fourteen sections of texts on the official websites which last update in 2014. The study found exoticism idea is one of the strategies used by the Jakarta government in the representation of the city on the Enjoy Jakarta website and the Portal Site of Jakarta Capital City. This concept influences on the commercialisation of Jakarta as a whole a tourist destination.

scholarly journals Being Left Behind Amidst Africa’s Rising Imagery: The Maasai In The World Of Information And Communication Technologies (ICTs)

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric E Otenyo
Keyword(s):  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Income Status ◽  
The World ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Narratives ◽  
Africa Rising

Today the media is replete with stories about Africa rising and enjoying middle –income status. Those promoting the narrative of Africa rising include the World Bank and western –trained elites. The narrative of success assumes that prosperity trickles down to Indigenous communities, who are pictured consuming mobile phones and tablets. At the same time, Hollywood and western media outlets continue to present images of Indigenous Maasai as a cultural export to be consumed. With emphasis on social media narratives, this paper interrogates the continued marginalisation of the Maasai people amidst the myth of a rising Africa. In sum, the Africa rising myth and penetration of ICTs in rural areas masks the dispossession of Maasai means of livelihood, and therefore worsening the groups’ conditions of living.

Alfabetização Midiática Informacional na cidade de São Paulo: Um novo olhar sobre cultura indígena e esporte paralímpico

2021 ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
D. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Information Literacy ◽  
Public Agencies ◽  
Global Alliance ◽  
City Hall ◽  
Literacy Gap ◽  
Metropolitan Cities ◽  
Four Corners ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
The City

The city of São Paulo is known for being one of the largest metropolitan cities in the world. With an estimated population of 12.18 million people, it has great potential in the areas of entertainment and business generation, which fascinate and attract people from the four corners of the world. Therefore, the objective of this article is the analysis through an explanatory and exploratory study and analysis of cases, as the media and information literacy (MIL according to acronyms in English) is present in the lives of the residents of the city of São Paulo in the areas of culture, and sports, verifying, as they are being conducted by public agencies such as the city hall, informational actions related to projects that obtain in their scope principles consistent with the Global Alliance for Partinerships on Media and Information Literacy (GAP MIL UNESCO).

scholarly journals The Atmosphere of Infinity Mirrored Room (A Work of Yayoi Kusama) as the Branding of Museum Macan in Jakarta

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-42
Author(s):  
Drs. Sahlan Toro, M. Si ◽  
Yulianti, S. Kom, M. Hum
Keyword(s):  
Mental Disorder ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
City Branding ◽  
Interview Techniques ◽  
Security Officers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
Yayoi Kusama ◽  
The City ◽  
Room Atmosphere

One of the well-known artists in the world, Yayoi Kusama, successfully hypnotizes the visitors of Museum Macan with the works shown. From her artworks, there is a contemporary installation that is the hallucination of the mental disorder suffered. She named its work as Infinity Mirrored Room. The room atmosphere made has been copyrighted by museums all over the world; one of them is Museum Macan in Jakarta. The management party not only promotes this installation to the media but also makes it as the city branding of Museum Macan. The research is interested in conducting by using a qualitative method through a description of process and analysis. through interview techniques directly in the museum to the visitors, museum assistants, and security officers and documenting it in the form of photos. The result of this research shows that the implementation of the atmosphere by using Barry and Evan’s theory can realize the City Branding Image of Museum Macan based on Anholt theory.

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