scholarly journals Host phenology drives the evolution of intermediate parasite virulence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannelore MacDonald ◽  
Erol Akçay ◽  
Dustin Brisson
Keyword(s):  
Common Factor ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Current Theory ◽  
Activity Period ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Virulence Evolution ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Host Phenology ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences

1AbstractMechanistic trade-offs between transmission and virulence are the foundation of current theory on the evolution of parasite virulence. Empirical evidence supporting these trade-offs in natural systems remains elusive, suggesting other factors could drive virulence evolution in the absence of a mechanistic trade-off. Several ecological factors modulate the optimal virulence strategies predicted from mechanistic trade-off models but none have been sufficient to explain the intermediate virulence strategies observed in most natural systems. The timing of seasonal activities, or phenology, is a common factor that influences the types and impact of many ecological interactions but is rarely considered in virulence evolution studies. We develop a mathematical model of a disease system with seasonal host activity to study the evolutionary consequences of host phenology on parasite virulence. Seasonal host activity is sufficient to drive the evolution of intermediate parasite virulence in the absence of traditional mechanistic trade-offs. The optimal virulence strategy is determined by both the duration of the host activity period as well as the variation in the host emergence timing. Parasites with low virulence strategies are favored in environments with long host activity periods and in environments in which all hosts emerge synchronously. These results demonstrate that host phenology may be sufficient, in the absence of mechanistic trade-offs, to select for intermediate optimal virulence strategies in some natural systems.

scholarly journals Host phenology can select for multiple stable parasite virulence strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannelore MacDonald ◽  
Dustin Brisson
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Activity Period ◽  
Parasite Transmission ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategies ◽  
Geographic Locations ◽  
Seasonal Environment ◽  
Host Phenology ◽  
Evolutionary Consequences ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable

Host phenology is an important driver of parasite transmission and evolution. In a seasonal environment, monocyclic, obligate-killer parasites evolve optimal virulence strategies such that all parasite progeny are released near the end of the host season to limit parasite progeny death in the environment. It is unclear whether host seasonality imposes different constraints on polycyclic parasites such that both polycyclic and monocyclic parasites are maintained. We develop a mathematical model of a disease system with seasonal host activity to study the evolutionary consequences of host phenology on polycyclic, obligate-killer parasite virulence strategies. Seasonal host activity patterns create both monocyclic and polycyclic parasite evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) separated by less-fit strategies (evolutionary repellors). The ESS that evolves in each system is a function of the virulence strategy of the parasite introduced into the system. The trait value for both monocyclic and polycyclic strategies is determined by two aspects of host phenology: the duration of the host activity period and the distribution in the time at which hosts first become active within each season. Longer host activity periods and more synchronous host emergence drive both the monocyclic and polycyclic strategies towards lower virulence. The results demonstrate that host phenology can, in theory, maintain diverse parasite strategies among isolated geographic locations.

scholarly journals The three Ts of virulence evolution during zoonotic emergence

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1956) ◽  
pp. 20210900
Author(s):  
Elisa Visher ◽  
Claire Evensen ◽  
Sarah Guth ◽  
Edith Lai ◽  
Marina Norfolk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Evolutionary Theory ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Zoonotic Pathogens ◽  
Virulence Evolution ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Considerable Confusion

There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may play in current and future pandemics, but there is often also considerable confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be, in part, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields, but there is a large, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on the evolution of infectious disease. In this review, we synthesize this evolutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understanding of the key principles. Specifically, we discuss the selection acting on zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and during emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection during epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts framework: trade-offs, transmission, and time scales. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, but transmission rate is likely to be favoured by selection early in emergence, particularly if maladapted zoonotic pathogens have ‘no-cost’ transmission rate improving mutations available to them. Additionally, the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen evolution, therefore, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of transmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.

scholarly journals Macronutrient intakes and the lifespan-fecundity trade-off: a geometric framework agent-based model

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (151) ◽  
pp. 20180733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron J. Hosking ◽  
David Raubenheimer ◽  
Michael A. Charleston ◽  
Stephen J. Simpson ◽  
Alistair M. Senior
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Primary Component ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Geometric Framework ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Extrinsic Mortality ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Evolutionary Fitness

Lifespan and fecundity, the main components in evolutionary fitness, are both strongly affected by nutritional state. Geometric framework of nutrition (GFN) experiments has shown that lifespan and fecundity are separated in nutrient space leading to a functional trade-off between the two traits. Here we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM) using the GFN to explore how ecological factors may cause selection on macronutrient appetites to optimally balance these life-history traits. We show that increasing the risk of extrinsic mortality favours intake of a mixture of nutrients that is associated with maximal fecundity at the expense of reduced longevity and that this result is robust across spatial and nutritional environments. These model behaviours are consistent with what has been observed in studies that quantify changes in life history in response to environmental manipulations. Previous GFN-derived ABMs have treated fitness as a single value. This is the first such model to instead decompose fitness into its primary component traits, longevity and fecundity, allowing evolutionary fitness to be an emergent property of the two. Our model demonstrates that selection on macronutrient appetites may affect life-history trade-offs and makes predictions that can be directly tested in artificial selection experiments.

scholarly journals Resource allocation during ontogeny is influenced by genetic, developmental and ecological factors in the horned beetle, Onthophagus taurus

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1793) ◽  
pp. 20141625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Schwab ◽  
Armin P. Moczek
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Developmental Genetic ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
Genetic Manipulations ◽  
Onthophagus Taurus ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Horned Beetle

Resource allocation trade-offs arise when developing organs are in competition for a limited pool of resources to sustain growth and differentiation. Such competition may constrain the maximal size to which structures can grow and may force a situation in which the evolutionary elaboration of one structure may only be possible at the expense of another. However, recent studies have called into question both the consistency and evolutionary importance of resource allocation trade-offs. This study focuses on a well-described trade-off between the horns and eyes of Onthophagus beetles and assesses the degree to which it is influenced by genetic, developmental and ecological conditions. Contrary to expectations, we observed that trade-off signatures (i) were mostly absent within natural populations, (ii) mostly failed to match naturally evolved divergences in horn investment among populations, (iii) were subject to differential changes in F 1 populations derived from divergent field populations and (iv) remained largely unaffected by developmental genetic manipulations of horn investment. Collectively, our results demonstrate that populations subject to different ecological conditions exhibit different patterns of, and differential plasticity in, resource allocation. Further, variation in ecological conditions, rather than canalized developmental mechanisms, may determine whether and to what degree morphological structures engage in resource allocation trade-offs.

Dual Goals for Speed and Accuracy on the Same Performance Task

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olive Emil Wetter ◽  
Jürgen Wegge ◽  
Klaus Jonas ◽  
Klaus-Helmut Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Memory Scanning ◽  
Performance Task ◽  
Performance Tasks ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Test Experiment ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
New Finding ◽  
Sternberg Paradigm ◽  
Speed Accuracy ◽  
Speed And Accuracy

In most work contexts, several performance goals coexist, and conflicts between them and trade-offs can occur. Our paper is the first to contrast a dual goal for speed and accuracy with a single goal for speed on the same task. The Sternberg paradigm (Experiment 1, n = 57) and the d2 test (Experiment 2, n = 19) were used as performance tasks. Speed measures and errors revealed in both experiments that dual as well as single goals increase performance by enhancing memory scanning. However, the single speed goal triggered a speed-accuracy trade-off, favoring speed over accuracy, whereas this was not the case with the dual goal. In difficult trials, dual goals slowed down scanning processes again so that errors could be prevented. This new finding is particularly relevant for security domains, where both aspects have to be managed simultaneously.

The Effects of Decision Time on Perceptions of Decisions and Decision Makers in (Moral) Trade-Off Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Katharina Spälti ◽  
Mark John Brandt ◽  
Marcel Zeelenberg
Keyword(s):  
Decision Process ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Total N ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Financial Gain ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Sacred Values ◽  
Moral Context

People often have to make trade-offs. We study three types of trade-offs: 1) "secular trade-offs" where no moral or sacred values are at stake, 2) "taboo trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against financial gain, and 3) "tragic trade-offs" where sacred values are pitted against other sacred values. Previous research (Critcher et al., 2011; Tetlock et al., 2000) demonstrated that tragic and taboo trade-offs are not only evaluated by their outcomes, but are also evaluated based on the time it took to make the choice. We investigate two outstanding questions: 1) whether the effect of decision time differs for evaluations of decisions compared to decision makers and 2) whether moral contexts are unique in their ability to influence character evaluations through decision process information. In two experiments (total N = 1434) we find that decision time affects character evaluations, but not evaluations of the decision itself. There were no significant differences between tragic trade-offs and secular trade-offs, suggesting that the decisions structure may be more important in evaluations than moral context. Additionally, the magnitude of the effect of decision time shows us that decision time, may be of less practical use than expected. We thus urge, to take a closer examination of the processes underlying decision time and its perception.

Predicting Undesired Treatment Outcome in Mental Healthcare: Machine Learning Study (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kasper Van Mens ◽  
Joran Lokkerbol ◽  
Richard Janssen ◽  
Robert de Lange ◽  
Bea Tiemens
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Treatment Outcome ◽  
Mental Health Treatment ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Outcome Monitoring ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

BACKGROUND It remains a challenge to predict which treatment will work for which patient in mental healthcare. OBJECTIVE In this study we compare machine algorithms to predict during treatment which patients will not benefit from brief mental health treatment and present trade-offs that must be considered before an algorithm can be used in clinical practice. METHODS Using an anonymized dataset containing routine outcome monitoring data from a mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands (n = 2,655), we applied three machine learning algorithms to predict treatment outcome. The algorithms were internally validated with cross-validation on a training sample (n = 1,860) and externally validated on an unseen test sample (n = 795). RESULTS The performance of the three algorithms did not significantly differ on the test set. With a default classification cut-off at 0.5 predicted probability, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm showed the highest positive predictive value (ppv) of 0.71(0.61 – 0.77) with a sensitivity of 0.35 (0.29 – 0.41) and area under the curve of 0.78. A trade-off can be made between ppv and sensitivity by choosing different cut-off probabilities. With a cut-off at 0.63, the ppv increased to 0.87 and the sensitivity dropped to 0.17. With a cut-off of at 0.38, the ppv decreased to 0.61 and the sensitivity increased to 0.57. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning can be used to predict treatment outcomes based on routine monitoring data.This allows practitioners to choose their own trade-off between being selective and more certain versus inclusive and less certain.

Challenges in the Empirical Study of Global Governance Legitimacy

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Bernstein
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Cultural Factors ◽  
Theory Building ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Political Communities

This commentary discusses three challenges for the promising and ambitious research agenda outlined in the volume. First, it interrogates the volume’s attempts to differentiate political communities of legitimation, which may vary widely in composition, power, and relevance across institutions and geographies, with important implications not only for who matters, but also for what gets legitimated, and with what consequences. Second, it examines avenues to overcome possible trade-offs from gains in empirical tractability achieved through the volume’s focus on actor beliefs and strategies. One such trade-off is less attention to evolving norms and cultural factors that may underpin actors’ expectations about what legitimacy requires. Third, it addresses the challenge of theory building that can link legitimacy sources, (de)legitimation practices, audiences, and consequences of legitimacy across different types of institutions.

scholarly journals Toward Inclusive Landscape Governance in Contested Landscapes: Exploring the Contribution of Participatory Tools in the Upper Suriname River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Best ◽  
Kimberley Fung-Loy ◽  
Nafiesa Ilahibaks ◽  
Sara O. I. Ramirez-Gomez ◽  
Erika N. Speelman
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
Landscape Governance ◽  
Information Tools ◽  
Tribal Communities ◽  
Trade Offs

AbstractNowadays, tropical forest landscapes are commonly characterized by a multitude of interacting institutions and actors with competing land-use interests. In these settings, indigenous and tribal communities are often marginalized in landscape-level decision making. Inclusive landscape governance inherently integrates diverse knowledge systems, including those of indigenous and tribal communities. Increasingly, geo-information tools are recognized as appropriate tools to integrate diverse interests and legitimize the voices, values, and knowledge of indigenous and tribal communities in landscape governance. In this paper, we present the contribution of the integrated application of three participatory geo-information tools to inclusive landscape governance in the Upper Suriname River Basin in Suriname: (i) Participatory 3-Dimensional Modelling, (ii) the Trade-off! game, and (iii) participatory scenario planning. The participatory 3-dimensional modelling enabled easy participation of community members, documentation of traditional, tacit knowledge and social learning. The Trade-off! game stimulated capacity building and understanding of land-use trade-offs. The participatory scenario planning exercise helped landscape actors to reflect on their own and others’ desired futures while building consensus. Our results emphasize the importance of systematically considering tool attributes and key factors, such as facilitation, for participatory geo-information tools to be optimally used and fit with local contexts. The results also show how combining the tools helped to build momentum and led to diverse yet complementary insights, thereby demonstrating the benefits of integrating multiple tools to address inclusive landscape governance issues.

scholarly journals Women’s Preferences for Strong Men Under Perceived Harsh Versus Safe Ecological Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 147470492110323
Author(s):  
Ray Garza ◽  
Farid Pazhoohi ◽  
Jennifer Byrd-Craven
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Ecological Condition ◽  
Sex Characteristics ◽  
Ecological Conditions ◽  
University Women ◽  
Secondary Sex Characteristics ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Forced Choice Task ◽  
Women’S Preferences ◽  
Physical Features

Ecological conditions provide information about available resources for one’s environment. In humans, this has been shown to influence reproductive behavior, as individuals may engage in trade-offs between partner quality and investment. For instance, many women may trade-off preferences for men with physical features indicative of social dominance and health over physical features indicative of commitment and investment. The current study explored women’s preferences for formidable men under safe vs. harsh ecological conditions. Across three studies, U.S. university women ( N = 1,098) were randomly assigned to a perceived harsh or safe ecological condition. They were asked to rate the attractiveness of men’s body types (i.e., muscular vs. less muscular). Findings revealed that in general, women rated stronger men as more attractive than weaker men irrespective of the ecological condition. Evidence for preference as a function of ecology appeared only when a two-alternative forced-choice task was used (Study 3), but not in rating tasks (Studies 1 and 2). Study 3 showed that women had a relatively stronger preference for stronger men for short-term relationships in a resource scarce ecological condition. This research provides some evidence that perceived ecological conditions can drive women’s preferences for men with enhanced secondary sex characteristics as a function of mating context. These findings are consistent with previous research indicating the importance of physical characteristics in men’s attractiveness, and it adds to the existing literature on ecological factors and mating preferences.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document