scholarly journals Impact of a nighttime curfew on overnight mobility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Ghasemi ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Isha Berry ◽  
Sarah A Buchan ◽  
Jean-Paul Soucy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Substantial Decrease ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, individual movement restrictions have been among the most impactful methods for controlling COVID-19 case growth. While nighttime curfews to control COVID-19 case growth have been implemented in certain regions and cities, few studies have examined their impacts on mobility or COVID-19 incidence. In the second wave of COVID-19, Canada's two largest and adjacent provinces implemented lockdown restrictions with (Quebec) and without (Ontario) a nighttime curfew, providing a natural experiment to study the association between curfews and mobility. Methods: This study spanned from December 1, 2020 to January 23, 2021 and included the populations of Ontario (including Toronto) and Quebec (including Montreal). The intervention of interest was a nighttime curfew implemented across Quebec on January 9, 2021. Unadjusted and adjusted difference-in-differences models (DID) were used to measure the incremental impact of the curfew on nighttime mobility in Quebec as compared to Ontario. Results: The implementation of the curfew was associated with an immediate reduction in nighttime mobility. The adjusted DID analysis indicated that Quebec experienced a 31% relative reduction in nighttime mobility (95%CI: -36% to -25%) compared to Ontario, and that Montreal experienced a 39% relative reduction compared to Toronto (95%CI: -43, -34). Discussion: However, this natural experiment among two neighbouring provinces provides useful evidence that curfews lead to an immediate and substantial decrease nighttime mobility, particularly in these provinces' largest urban areas hardest hit by COVID-19.

scholarly journals Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland

Thorax ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Thomas Hone ◽  
Eszter P Vamos ◽  
Philip E Anyanwu ◽  
David Taylor-Robinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Tobacco Smoke ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Second Hand Smoke ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Absolute Reduction

England banned smoking in cars carrying children in 2015 and Scotland in 2016. We used survey data from 3 years for both countries (NEngland=3483–6920, NScotland=232–319) to assess effects of the English ban using logistic regression within a difference-in-differences framework. Among children aged 13–15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars for Scotland were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 and for England 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6%. The ban in England was associated with a −4.1% (95% CI −4.9% to −3.3%) absolute reduction (72% relative reduction) in exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

scholarly journals Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony A Laverty ◽  
Thomas Hone ◽  
Philip E. Anyanwu ◽  
David Taylor Robinson ◽  
Frank de Vocht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Tobacco Smoke ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Second Hand Smoke ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Survey Weighting ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTA ban on smoking in cars with children was implemented in April 2015 in England and December 2016 in Scotland. With survey data from both countries (NEngland=3,483-6,920 and NScotland=232-319), we used this natural experiment to assess the impact of the ban using a difference-in-differences approach. We conducted logistic regression analyses within a Difference-in-Difference framework and adjusted for age, sex, a marker of deprivation and survey weighting for non-response. Among children aged 13-15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 for Scotland and 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6% in England. The ban was associated with a 73% reduction (95%CI -59%, -81%) in self-reported exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

scholarly journals The Buck Stops Where? Federalism, Uncertainty, and Investment in the Brazilian Water and Sanitation Sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 374-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Plous Kresch
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Total System ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Water And Sanitation ◽  
Regulatory Uncertainty ◽  
System Access ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels

This paper documents how regulatory uncertainty may undermine public service when different levels of government share a mandate on public service provision. I examine the Brazilian water and sanitation sector, which presents a natural experiment of shared provision between state and municipal companies. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I study a legal reform that clarified the relationship between municipal and state providers and eliminated any takeover threat by state companies. I find that after the reform, municipal companies almost doubled their total system investment, leading to significant increases in system access and decreases in child mortality. (JEL H77, L95, O13, O18, Q53)

scholarly journals ‘Trend in premature mortality from four major NCDs in Nanjing, China, 2007–2018’

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huafeng Yang ◽  
Yali Fu ◽  
Xin Hong ◽  
Hao Yu ◽  
Weiwei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Chronic Respiratory Diseases

Abstract Background This study aims to analyze the trends of premature mortality caused from four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), namely cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in Nanjing between 2007 and 2018 and project the ability to achieve the “Healthy China 2030” reduction target. Methods Mortality data of four major NCDs for the period 2007–2018 were extracted from the Death Information Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Population data for Nanjing were provided by the Nanjing Bureau of Public Security. The premature mortality was calculated using the life table method. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in mortality trends. Results From 2007 to 2018, the premature mortality from four major NCDs combined in Nanjing decreased from 15.5 to 9.5%, with the AAPC value at − 4.3% (95% CI [− 5.2% to − 3.4%]). Overall, it can potentially achieve the target, with a relative reduction 28.6%. The premature mortality from cancer, CVD, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes all decreased, with AAPC values at − 4.2, − 5.0%, − 5.9% and − 1.6% respectively. A relative reduction of 40.6 and 41.2% in females and in rural areas, but only 21.0 and 12.8% in males and in urban areas were projected. Conclusion An integrated approach should be taken focusing on the modifiable risk factors across different sectors and disciplines in Nanjing. The prevention and treatment of cancers, diabetes, male and rural areas NCDs should be enhanced.

scholarly journals Declining Mortality Rate of Hospitalised Patients in the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Epidemics in Italy: Risk Factors and the Age-Specific Patterns

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 979
Author(s):  
Antonella D’Arminio Monforte ◽  
Alessandro Tavelli ◽  
Francesca Bai ◽  
Daniele Tomasoni ◽  
Camilla Falcinella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Background Mortality ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Second Wave

Background: Mortality rate from COVID-19 in Italy is among the world’s highest. We aimed to ascertain whether there was any reduction of in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in the second-wave period (October 2020–January 2021) compared to the first one (February–May 2020); further, we verified whether there were clusters of hospitalised patients who particularly benefitted from reduced mortality rate. Methods: Data collected related to in-patients’ demographics, clinical, laboratory, therapies and outcome. Primary end-point was time to in-hospital death. Factors associated were evaluated by uni- and multivariable analyses. A flow diagram was created to determine the rate of in-hospital death according to individual and disease characteristics. Results: A total of 1561 patients were included. The 14-day cumulative incidence of in-hospital death by competing risk regression was of 24.8% (95% CI: 21.3–28.5) and 15.9% (95% CI: 13.7–18.2) in the first and second wave. We observed that the highest relative reduction of death from first to second wave (more than 47%) occurred mainly in the clusters of patients younger than 70 years. Conclusions: Progress in care and supporting therapies did affect population over 70 years to a lesser extent. Preventive and vaccination campaigns should focus on individuals whose risk of death from COVID-19 remains high.

scholarly journals Is a Regional Coordination Approach to Air Pollution Management Helpful? Evidence from China

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuehui Zhang ◽  
Zhidong Tan ◽  
Bao-Guang Chang ◽  
Kam C. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Administrative Management ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Regional Coordination ◽  
Pollution Management ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
The Government

In February 2017 China began to require the regional coordination of four ministries and 28 cities surrounding Beijing to manage air pollution. The Coordination attempts to unify air pollution standards and implements various new methods to monitor air pollution. Leveraging the natural experiment and using a difference-in-differences research design, we note that firms located in the treatment cities invest more in the environment than those in the control cities. In addition, we find that non-state-owned firms (non-SOEs) respond more strongly than SOEs. The findings remain qualitatively the same after accounting for selection bias in the cities included in the Coordination. Most importantly, air quality improves for treatment cities after the implementation of the Coordination. Our findings offer lessons to other emerging markets for implementing their air pollution management programs. Specifically, we sharpen our knowledge of the administrative management needed to improve coordination among government agencies and local officials in the management of air pollution and suggest that the government can play an active role in enhancing air pollution management.

scholarly journals Biochemical Markers of Salt Stress in European Larch (Larix decidua)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioana PLESA ◽  
Mohamad AL HASSAN ◽  
Adriana F. SESTRAS ◽  
Oscar VICENTE ◽  
Monica BOSCAIU ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Salt Stress ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Biochemical Markers ◽  
Larix Decidua ◽  
Stem Length ◽  
Relative Reduction ◽  
European Larch ◽  
Stress Markers ◽  
Steady Level ◽  
Different Populations

Larix decidua, the European larch, does not grow in natural saline areas, but it can be affected by salinity either by the common practice of winter de-icing of mountain roads with NaCl, or when grown as an ornamental tree in urban areas by the use of low quality, salinised irrigation water. In the present study, the responses to salt stress of young seedlings obtained from seeds of seven Carpathian larch populations were analysed. After 30 days of treatments with 150 mM NaCl, growth and biochemical parameters were determinated. Salt stress inhibited growth of all seedlings, as shown by the relative reduction of stem length and fresh weight, and induced significant changes in the needle levels of several biochemical stress markers. Seedlings from all populations showed a marked reduction of photosynthetic pigments contents and an increase of proline and malondialdehyde (MDA) concentrations. Under salt stress, plants accumulated Na+ and Cl- in the needles, whereas K+ was maintained at a steady level. Responses of seedlings from the different populations were similar, with only small quantitative differences that did not allow the identification of more salt tolerant genotypes. However, the study revealed that several of the biochemical markers mentioned above can be suitable for the rapid and non-destructive assessment of the effects of salinity in European larch.

scholarly journals Bismarck’s Health Insurance and the Mortality Decline

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2561-2607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Bauernschuster ◽  
Anastasia Driva ◽  
Erik Hornung
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Social Health Insurance ◽  
Insurance Fund ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
German Empire ◽  
Compulsory Health Insurance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Significant Mortality

Abstract We study the impact of social health insurance on mortality. Using the introduction of compulsory health insurance in the German Empire in 1884 as a natural experiment, we estimate difference-in-differences and regional fixed effects models exploiting variation in eligibility for insurance across occupations. Our findings suggest that Bismarck’s health insurance generated a significant mortality reduction. Despite the absence of antibiotics and most vaccines, we find the results to be largely driven by a decline of deaths from infectious diseases. Further evidence suggests that statutory access to well-trained doctors was an elementary channel. This finding may be explained by insurance fund physicians transmitting new knowledge on infectious disease prevention.

scholarly journals Epidemics forecast from SIR-modeling, verification and calculated effects of lockdown and lifting of interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Schlickeiser ◽  
Martin Kroger
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Analytical Approximations ◽  
Worldwide Population ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Arbitrary Time Dependence ◽  
Societal Interest ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Due to the current COVID-19 epidemic plague hitting the worldwide population it is of utmost medical, economical and societal interest to gain reliable predictions on the temporal evolution of the spreading of the infectious diseases in human populations. Of particular interest are the daily rates and cumulative number of new infections, as they are monitored in infected societies, and the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions due to different lockdown measures as well as their subsequent lifting on these infections. Estimating quantitatively the influence of a later lifting of the interventions on the resulting increase in the case numbers is important to discriminate this increase from the onset of a second wave. The recently discovered new analytical solutions of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model allow for such forecast and the testing of lockdown and lifting interventions as they hold for arbitrary time dependence of the infection rate. Here we present simple analytical approximations for the rate and cumulative number of new infections.

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