The genetics of assisted gene flow: immediate costs and long-term benefits

ABSTRACTPlant and animal populations are facing several novel risks such as human-mediated habitat fragmentation and climate change that threaten their long-term productivity and persistence. With the genetic health of many populations deteriorating due to climate change outpacing physiological adaptation, human interventions in the form of assisted gene flow (AGF) may provide genetic variation to adapt populations to predicted climate change scenarios and result in more robust and productive populations. We ran genetic simulations to mimic a variety of AGF scenarios and measured their outcomes on population-level fitness to answer the question: in which circumstances is it worthwhile to perform AGF? Based on the parameters we explored, AGF may be harmful in certain situations over the short term (e.g., the first ∼10-20 generations), due to outbreeding depression and introducing deleterious genetic variation. Moreover, under many parameter sets, the benefits of AGF were relatively weak or took many generations to accrue. In general, when the adaptive trait is controlled by many loci of small effect, the benefits of assisted gene flow take much longer to realize–potentially too long for most climate-related management decisions. We also show that when translocation effort is divided across several generations and outbreeding depression is strong, the recipient population experiences a smaller decrease in fitness as compared to moving all individuals in a single effort. Importantly, in most cases, we show that the genomic integrity of the recipient population remains relatively intact following AGF; the amount of genetic material from the donor population typically ends up constituting no more of the recipient population’s genome than the fraction introduced. Our results will be useful for conservation practitioners and silviculturists, for instance, aiming to intervene and adaptively manage so that populations maintain a robust genetic health and maintain productivity into the future given anthropogenic climate change.

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Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148515 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 148515

Author(s):

Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽

María Máñez Costa ◽

Sabine Egerer ◽

Uwe Schneider

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

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Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

Journal of Fungi ◽

10.3390/jof7110912 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 912

Author(s):

Rodolfo Bizarria ◽

Pepijn W. Kooij ◽

Andre Rodrigues

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Nest Architecture ◽

Historical Records ◽

Climate Data ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Data Analyses ◽

Symbiotic Mutualism ◽

Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

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Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13668 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nima Shokri ◽

Amirhossein Hassani ◽

Adisa Azapagic

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Salinity ◽

Global Scale ◽

Soil Salinization ◽

Water Evaporation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Salt Affected Soils

Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols &#8212; leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, ECe) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21st century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm2 located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an ECe &#8805; 4 dS m-1. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21st century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation&#8217;s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR0267072. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017&#8211;33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117

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Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

10.21203/rs.3.rs-346221/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christine Moos ◽

Antoine Guisan ◽

Christophe F. Randin ◽

Heike Lischke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Protective Effect ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Swiss Alps ◽

Present Species ◽

Future Research ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

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A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3358

Author(s):

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Roman Výleta ◽

Kamila Hlavčová ◽

Michaela Danáčová ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

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The importance of superior-quality wildlife habitats

The Forestry Chronicle ◽

10.5558/tfc80075-1 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 80 (1) ◽

pp. 75-81 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Ian D Thompson

Keyword(s):

Habitat Selection ◽

Habitat Quality ◽

Population Level ◽

Individual Fitness ◽

Animal Populations ◽

Cumulative Change ◽

Few Data ◽

Managed Landscapes ◽

The Relationship

While animals may use many habitat types, relatively few are preferred and fewer yet are superior in quality (referring to individual fitness as the measure of quality). Historical reduction in habitat quality for some wildlife species has occurred such that we may now have limited reference to original superior-quality habitats. As time passes, managers may be unaware that superior habitats are slowly disappearing and that the slow but cumulative change is significant to a species at the population level. The perception of superior-quality habitat also changes with each successive generation of managers based on their experiences. This paper raises the concern that retrospective work may often be required to determine past forest habitats and associated animal populations to avoid the risk of falling into a trap of not recognizing ever-declining habitat quality through time and relegating animals to what is in fact much poorer quality habitat than those to which they are actually best adapted. Further, the relationship between relative abundance and habitat quality may often be uncertain owing to maladaptive habitat selection by animals, inappropriate survey timing or interannual population differences. While we have begun to appreciate aspects of habitat selection for many forest species, few data are yet available that relate selected habitats to fitness of individual animals. Hence, while we may have models to predict habitat use, considerable research remains to be done to be able to predict long-term sustainability of species in managed landscapes. Key words: habitat quality, forest management, sustainability, biodiversity

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Vulnerability of megapodes (Megapodiidae, Aves) to climate change and related threats

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892918000152 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 45 (4) ◽

pp. 396-406 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

PAUL M. RADLEY ◽

ROBERT A. DAVIS ◽

RENÉ W.R.J. DEKKER ◽

SHAUN W. MOLLOY ◽

DAVID BLAKE ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Gene Flow ◽

Life Histories ◽

Population Level ◽

Genetic Connectivity ◽

Future Research ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Climate Variables ◽

Microbial Decomposition ◽

Anthropogenic Habitat

SUMMARYAspects of species life histories may increase their susceptibility to climate change. Owing to their exclusive reliance on environmental sources of heat for incubation, megapodes may be especially vulnerable. We employed a trait-based vulnerability assessment to weigh their exposure to projected climate variables of increasing temperatures, fluctuating rainfall and sea level rise and their biological sensitivity and capacity to adapt. While all 21 species were predicted to experience at least a 2 °C increase in mean annual temperature, 12 to experience a moderate or greater fluctuation in rainfall and 16 to experience rising seas, the most vulnerable megapodes are intrinsically rare and range restricted. Species that employ microbial decomposition for incubation may have an adaptive advantage over those that do not and may be more resilient to climate change. The moderate microclimate necessary for mound incubation, however, may in some areas be threatened by anthropogenic habitat loss exacerbated by warmer and seasonally drier conditions. As with many avian species, little is known about the capacity of megapodes to adapt to a changing climate. We therefore recommend that future research efforts investigate megapode fecundity, gene flow and genetic connectivity at the population level to better determine their adaptive capacity.

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Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11174764 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (17) ◽

pp. 4764 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Anna Sperotto ◽

Josè Luis Molina ◽

Silvia Torresan ◽

Andrea Critto ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Bayesian Networks ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Large Variability ◽

Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

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Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones in Present and Future Climate

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00339.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (19) ◽

pp. 7493-7501 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Leone Cavicchia ◽

Hans von Storch ◽

Silvio Gualdi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Sea ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Dynamical Evolution ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Moderate Increase ◽

High Resolution Data ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The One

Abstract The Mediterranean has been identified as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. It has been conjectured that one of the effects of a warmer climate could be to make the Mediterranean Sea prone to the formation of hurricanes. Already in the present climate regime, however, a few of the numerous low pressure systems that form in the area develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones. Even if their spatial extent is generally smaller and the life cycle shorter compared to tropical cyclones, such storms produce severe damage on the highly populated coastal areas surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. This study, based on the analysis of individual realistically simulated storms in homogeneous long-term and high-resolution data from multiple climate change scenarios, shows that the projected effect of climate change on Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones is decreased frequency and a tendency toward a moderate increase of intensity.

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GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-annals-iv-3-45-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol IV-3 ◽

pp. 45-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bin Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cropping System ◽

Crop Growth ◽

Lower Latitude ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Human Society ◽

Multiple Cropping ◽

Growth Trend ◽

Cropping Intensity

Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97&thinsp;% of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03&thinsp;% of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p&thinsp;&lt;&thinsp;0.001), and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

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