Environmental factors and mobility predict COVID-19 seasonality

AbstractBackgroundWe recently showed that seasonal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and Influenza-Like Illnesses incidence are highly similar, in a country in the temperate climate zone, such as the Netherlands (latitude: 52°N). We hypothesize that in The Netherlands the same environmental factors and mobility trends that are associated with the seasonality of flu-like illnesses are predictors of COVID-19 seasonality as well.MethodsWe used meteorological, pollen/hay fever and mobility data from the Netherlands with its 17.4 million inhabitants. For the reproduction number of COVID-19 (Rt), we used data from the Dutch State Institute for Public Health. This Rt metric is a daily estimate that is based on positive COVID-19 tests in the Netherlands in hospitals and municipalities. For all datasets we selected the overlapping period of COVID-19 and the first allergy season: from February 17, 2020 till September 21, 2020 (total number of measurements: n = 218), the end of pollen season. Backward stepwise multiple linear regression was used to develop an environmental prediction model of the Rt of COVID-19. Next, we studied whether adding mobility trends to an environmental model improved the predictive power.ResultsBy means of stepwise backward multiple linear regression four highly significant (p value < 0.01) predictive factors are selected in our combined model: temperature, solar radiation, hay fever incidence, and mobility to indoor recreation locations. Our combined model explains 87.5% of the variance of Rt of COVID-19 and has a good and highly significant fit: F(4, 213) = 374.2, p-value < 0.00001. The combined model had a better overall predictive performance compared to a solely environmental model, which still explains 77.3% of the variance of Rt, and a good and highly significant fit: F(4, 213) = 181.3, p < 0.00001.ConclusionsWe conclude that the combined mobility and environmental model can adequately predict the seasonality of COVID-19 in a country with a temperate climate like the Netherlands. In this model higher solar radiation, higher temperature and hay fever are related to lower COVID-19 reproduction, and mobility to indoor recreation locations with increased COVID-19 spread.HighlightsThe seasonality of COVID-19 can be well-explained by environmental factors and mobility.A combined model explains 87.5% of the variance of the reproduction number of COVID-19Inhibitors of the reproduction number of COVID-19 are higher solar radiation, and seasonal allergens/allergies.Mobility, especially to indoor recreation locations, increases the reproduction number of COVID-19.Temperature has no direct effect on the reproduction number of COVID-19, but affects mobility and seasonal allergens.Adding mobility trends to an environmental model improves the predictive value regarding the reproduction number of COVID-19.

Download Full-text

FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG BERHUBUNGAN DENGAN KEJADIAN PNEUMONIA PADA BALITA DI WILAYAH KERJA PUSKESMAS WONOREJO SAMARINDA TAHUN 2017

KESMAS UWIGAMA: Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat ◽

10.24903/kujkm.v3i2.338 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 76

Author(s):

Novi Anggun Pusvitasary

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

Family Member ◽

Cause Of Death ◽

Family Members ◽

Smoking Behavior ◽

Smoking Habits ◽

P Value ◽

Behavioral Factors ◽

The World ◽

Health Standards

Pneumonia disease is the leading cause of death of babies in the world. The prevalence of pneumonia in infants is 18.5 / mil. Data from Samarinda City Health Office during the last 1 year there are 91 cases of pneumonia in Karang Anyar Village and 63 cases in Teluk Lerong Ulu Village. Factors causing pneumonia are toddler factors, behavioral factors, and environmental factors. The results show there is a relationship between house humidity (p value = 0,013; OR = 0,192), house dwelling density (p value = 0,024; OR = 0,214), and family member smoking behavior (p value = 0,006; OR = 10,450) with incidence of pneumonia in toddlers in the Working Area of Puskesmas Wonorejo Samarinda. There was no correlation between house temperature (p value = 0,214; OR = 0,337), house lighting (p value = 0,095; OR = 3,188) and family disease history (p value = 0,707; OR = 0,753) with Pneumonia occurrence in infant in region Work Puskesmas Wonorejo Samarinda. It was concluded that there was a relationship between house humidity, home dwelling density, and smoking behavior of family members with the incidence of pneumonia in infants. It is recommended to be able to apply housing health requirements that meet health standards to reduce the incidence of pneumonia in infants and change smoking habits.

Download Full-text

ANALISIS HUBUNGAN BIAYA PROMOSI DENGAN PENDAPATAN PADA PT. BANK XYZ

Jurnal Riset Manajemen dan Bisnis (JRMB) Fakultas Ekonomi UNIAT ◽

10.36226/jrmb.v3i1.89 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 85-90

Author(s):

Murwani Wulansari ◽

Yunidyawati Azlina

Keyword(s):

Linear Regression ◽

Regression Equation ◽

P Value ◽

Significance Level ◽

Statistical Program

This study aims to determine and analyze the effect of promotion costs on income at PT. Bank XYZ. The study was conducted by linear regression that was processed by means of statistical program SPSS16.00. The analysis shows the regression equation as follows: Y = -162982.754 + 247.964X. The result of research shows that there is influence between variable X that is promotion cost with variable Y that is income. However, the effectis not significant because the p-value 0.216 is greater than the 0.05 significance level. Keywords: biaya promosi, penjualan

Download Full-text

Calibration and Validation of ArcGIS Solar Radiation Tool for Photovoltaic Potential Determination in the Netherlands

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14071865 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (7) ◽

pp. 1865

Author(s):

Bala Bhavya Kausika ◽

Wilfried G. J. H. M. van Sark

Keyword(s):

Solar Radiation ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Input Data ◽

Solar Irradiation ◽

Energy Yield ◽

Atmospheric Parameters ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Solar Radiation Model

Geographic information system (GIS) based tools have become popular for solar photovoltaic (PV) potential estimations, especially in urban areas. There are readily available tools for the mapping and estimation of solar irradiation that give results with the click of a button. Although these tools capture the complexities of the urban environment, they often miss the more important atmospheric parameters that determine the irradiation and potential estimations. Therefore, validation of these models is necessary for accurate potential energy yield and capacity estimations. This paper demonstrates the calibration and validation of the solar radiation model developed by Fu and Rich, employed within ArcGIS, with a focus on the input atmospheric parameters, diffusivity and transmissivity for the Netherlands. In addition, factors affecting the model’s performance with respect to the resolution of the input data were studied. Data were calibrated using ground measurements from Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) stations in the Netherlands and validated with the station data from Cabauw. The results show that the default model values of diffusivity and transmissivity lead to substantial underestimation or overestimation of solar insolation. In addition, this paper also shows that calibration can be performed at different time scales depending on the purpose and spatial resolution of the input data.

Download Full-text

1412. The utility of respiratory viral panel testing for nosocomial fever in the neonatal intensive care unit

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofaa439.1594 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. S713-S713

Author(s):

Carlo Fopiano Palacios ◽

Eric Lemmon ◽

James Campbell

Keyword(s):

Intensive Care Unit ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Length Of Stay ◽

Neonatal Intensive Care Unit ◽

Neonatal Intensive Care ◽

P Value ◽

Fisher Exact Test ◽

The Mean ◽

Pcr Test

Abstract Background Patients in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) often develop fevers during their inpatient stay. Many neonates are empirically started on antibiotics due to their fragile clinical status. We sought to evaluate whether the respiratory viral panel (RVP) PCR test is associated with use of antibiotics in patients who develop a fever in the NICU. Methods We conducted a retrospective chart review on patients admitted to the Level 4 NICU of the University of Maryland Medical Center from November 2015 to June 2018. We included all neonates who developed a fever 48 hours into their admission. We collected demographic information and data on length of stay, fever work-up and diagnostics (including labs, cultures, RVP), and antibiotic use. Descriptive statistics, Fisher exact test, linear regression, and Welch’s ANOVA were performed. Results Among 347 fever episodes, the mean age of neonates was 72.8 ± 21.6 days, and 45.2% were female. Out of 30 total RVP samples analyzed, 2 were positive (6.7%). The most common causes of fever were post-procedural (5.7%), pneumonia (4.8%), urinary tract infection (3.5%), meningitis (2.6%), bacteremia (2.3%), or due to a viral infection (2.0%). Antibiotics were started in 208 patients (60%), while 61 neonates (17.6%) were already on antibiotics. The mean length of antibiotics was 7.5 ± 0.5 days. Neonates were more likely to get started on antibiotics if they had a negative RVP compared to those without a negative RVP (89% vs. 11%, p-value < 0.0001). Patients with a positive RVP had a decreased length of stay compared to those without a positive RVP (30.3 ± 8.7 vs. 96.8 ± 71.3, p-value 0.01). On multivariate linear regression, a positive RVP was not associated with length of stay. Conclusion Neonates with a negative respiratory viral PCR test were more likely to be started on antibiotics for fevers. Respiratory viral PCR testing can be used as a tool to promote antibiotic stewardship in the NICU. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Download Full-text

Identification of environmental factors affecting the speed of purebred Arabian racehorses in The Netherlands

Livestock Science ◽

10.1016/j.livsci.2009.03.004 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 125 (1) ◽

pp. 97-100 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

A. Schurink ◽

M.C.J. Theunissen ◽

B.J. Ducro ◽

P. Bijma ◽

E.M. van Grevenhof

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Factors Affecting

Download Full-text

MO794EVALUATION OF THE BONE ELASTIC STRUCTURE IN PERSONS WITH AND WITHOUT CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE ON DIALYSIS

Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation ◽

10.1093/ndt/gfab096.003 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

Pietro Manuel Ferraro ◽

Alessandra Nicolosi ◽

Alessandro Naticchia ◽

Nicola Panocchia ◽

Giuseppe Grandaliano ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Chronic Kidney Disease ◽

Kidney Disease ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Bone Structure ◽

Bone Fractures ◽

Elastic Structure ◽

Absolute Difference ◽

P Value ◽

Non Invasive ◽

Age And Sex

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease is a frequent condition, characterized, especially in its more advanced stages, by an array of derangements in bone structure and density, resulting in a higher rate of bone fractures. Current strategies to monitor the bone status and assess the risk of bone fractures in CKD patients are limited. The Bone Elastic Structure (BES) test is a recently-developed non-invasive tool that measures the elastic characteristics of the trabecular bone by simulating the application of loads on a virtual biopsy obtained from radiographic images of the proximal epiphyses in the patient’s hand fingers. The simulation results are combined to obtain a parameter defined Bone Structure Index (BSI). The aim of our study is to explore whether the BES test could be a useful monitoring tool of bone status in patients with CKD on dialysis by exploring whether such patients have different BSI values compared with persons without CKD. Method The BES test was performed on a sample of 41 patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis (HD) and the BSI compared with a group of 374 persons with normal renal function who had undergone the BES test in previous studies. Differences in BSI and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between the two groups were obtained and tested for statistical significance with a linear regression model including BSI as the dependent variable and kidney status (HD vs no HD) as the independent variable, adjusted for age and sex. Subgroup effects were explored by including interaction terms (age x kidney status, age x sex, kidney status x sex) in the model. Finally, to further remove the potential confounding by age and sex, each HD patient was individually matched with up to 4 non-HD participants based on sex and age (with a 5-year caliper) and a matched analysis was conducted on BSI values. Results Average (SD) age was 64 (17) years in the HD group and 60 (12) years in the non-HD group, with a prevalence of males of 49% and 16%, respectively. The individual values of BSI divided by kidney status and sex in Figure. The multivariate linear regression model showed that, after adjustment for age and sex, the BSI in the HD group was significantly lower compared with the non-HD group (HD 145, 95% CI 140, 154; non-HD 179, 95% CI 177, 181; absolute difference −32, 95% CI −40, −25; p-value < 0.001). There was no significant interaction between age, sex and kidney status on BSI values (all p-values > 0.05). Individual matching was successful for 36 out of 41 HD patients, who were matched to 127 non-HD participants; matched analysis confirmed the results (absolute difference −31, 95% CI −40, −23; p-value < 0.001). Conclusion The output of a non-invasive tool to determine the bone elastic structure appeared to be strongly associated with kidney function after control for differences in age and sex. Further studies are needed to determine the potential application of the BES test in patients with CKD.

Download Full-text

Pengaruh Minat terhadap Prestasi Belajar Siswa di Madrasah Ibtidaiyah

Mimbar Kampus: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Agama Islam ◽

10.47467/mk.v20i2.423 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 58-79

Author(s):

Yusi Srihartini

Keyword(s):

Student Achievement ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Degrees Of Freedom ◽

Regression Equation ◽

P Value ◽

Simple Linear Regression ◽

Learning Achievement ◽

Significance Level ◽

Anova Table ◽

Learning Interest

The Influence of Learning Interest on Student Achievement at MI Mathla'ul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency, a survey research with a functional associative quantitative approach. The research aims to: 1) find out the data on the level of interest in learning at MI Mathlaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency; 2) find out data on student achievement at MI Mathlaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency; 3) determine the effect of interest in learning on student achievement at MI Mathlaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency. Research data were collected using questionnaires and documentation techniques. The research instrument used a questionnaire for interest in learning and for student achievement using the general score for Indonesian language subjects. The data analysis technique used a simple linear regression test and the interpretation of the data was carried out in a deductive narrative. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between variable X (interest in learning) and variable Y (student learning achievement) of 0.618. The significance level obtained is 0.000 which is smaller than = 0.050 (one-tailed test), so Ho: = 0 is rejected. Thus, because the significance of 0.000 is smaller than = 0.050 (one-tailed test or one-tailed test), then Ho : = 0 is rejected. This means that there is a significant relationship between interest in learning and student achievement at MI Mafthaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency. The form of a simple linear regression equation is obtained = 53.686 + 0.275X. Based on the value of R square, the regression equation can be explained that 38.2% of the variance of student achievement at MI Mafthaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg Bogor Regency can be explained by changes in learning interest. Regression (functional relationship) variable interest in learning with learning achievement statistically with a value of F = 29.635 significant at degrees of freedom k = 1 and n - k - 1 = 48, and P-value = 0.000 which is smaller than = 0.05. Thus, testing the hypothesis Ho:β1=0 against H1: 1≠0 based on the ANOVA table, Ho is rejected because P-value = 0.000 which is smaller than = 0.050. This means that there is a significant effect of interest in learning on student achievement at MI Mafthaul Anwar 05 Cigudeg, Bogor Regency.

Download Full-text

Factors driving diversity and succession of diatom assemblages in a Neotropical rainforest stream

Annales de Limnologie - International Journal of Limnology ◽

10.1051/limn/2018021 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 ◽

pp. 30 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jhon Charles Donato Rondón ◽

Yaira Ayarith Abuhatab Aragón

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Shannon Index ◽

Diatom Assemblages ◽

Fluvial Systems ◽

Neotropical Streams ◽

Biogeographic Region ◽

Nitrate Concentrations ◽

Taxonomic Changes ◽

Neotropical Rainforest

This study assessed short-term succession and related changes in diversity and succession of benthic diatom assemblages in a tropical rainforest stream in the biogeographic region of Chocó, Colombia. Diatom colonization in situ was studied over a 60-day period, in which we analyzed the number of valves and the taxonomic changes. The Shannon index ranged from 2.06 to 3.02 bits. A total of 127 species were identified and the most abundant were acidophilic species such as Eunotia intermedia, E. veneris, E. bilunaris var. mucophila, E. pirla and E. bilunaris. A Detrended Canonical Correspondence Analysis (DCCA) was used to explore the succession of diatom assemblages and its driving environmental factors. The DCCA explained 74.1% of the correlation between environmental variables and diatom species and 16.2% of the data variance. The species fell into four groups, the first group (Eunotia incisa, Frustulia saxonica, Fragilaria capucina var. acatu, among others) was related to lower nitrate concentrations, acidic pH and lower water temperature. The second group (Fragilaria capensis, Gomphonema olivaceum, Cymbella gracilis, among others) was associated to higher alkalinity and lower solar radiation availability. The third group (Nitzschia obtusa, N. amphibia, Naviculadicta vitabunda, Navicula cryptocephala, among others) was related to lower phosphate, higher nitrate concentrations, lower pH, and higher temperatures. The fourth group (Eunotia soleirolli, Frustulia vulgaris and F. rhomboides) was associated with higher solar radiation and lower alkalinity. These results underscore the importance of diatom diversity in Neotropical streams and the relevance of small variations in environmental factors on the composition of reference assemblages of Neotropical fluvial systems.

Download Full-text

The effect of environmental factors on the growth of alfalfa in the field.

Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.18174/njas.v10i4.17584 ◽

1962 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 247-253

Author(s):

G. Stanhill

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Root Growth ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Crop Canopy

DM production from a heavily fertilized lucerne crop grown at Gilat and irrigated daily was compared with potential photosynthesis calculated from meteorological data [see F.C.A. 12: 1940]. After corrections were applied for losses due to respiration, root growth and light wasted beneath the crop canopy, calculated amounts agreed well with those measured. The percentage of light utilized was 33% with cutting at 31-day intervals and 46% with cutting at 48-day intervals. DM production was correlated positively with solar radiation and negatively with air temperature.-R.B. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

Download Full-text

Dynamics of Intercepted Solar Radiation to Simulate Dry Matter of Soybean (Glycine Max (L.) Merrill)

Agromet ◽

10.29244/j.agromet.31.1.43-52 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 43

Author(s):

Pono Ngatui ◽

. Handoko ◽

Bregas Budianto ◽

Marliana Tri Widyastuti

Keyword(s):

Glycine Max ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Dry Matter ◽

Plant Biomass ◽

P Value ◽

Modeling Experiment ◽

Glycine Max L ◽

Generative Phase ◽

Intercepted Solar Radiation ◽

Intercepted Radiation

Solar radiation greatly affects the development of plant biomass. The process of plant development is complex. Here, we simplified this complexity through modeling experiment by integrating climate variables. This study aims to determine the dynamics of canopy intercepted solar radiation under soybean (Glycine Max (L.) Merrill). We employed the shierary-rice model to calculate plant biomass. The results showed that intercepted radiation continuosly increased during vegetative phase, whereas the radiation remains constant during generative phase. Our observation confirmed that the pattern of intercepted radiation followed the angular pattern of sunlight. The intercepted radiation was optimum at 10:00 to 14:00 pm, and it was used to form the plant dry matter. We found that the intercepted radiation contributed until 12%. Based on this contribution, we built our crop model of soybean biomass. Our model performed well in simulating dry biomass with high R2 (0.9), and as indicated by the plot 1:1 between dry matter of model and field observations. Further, the result of t test between model and observed data confirm this strong corelation (p-value 0.07).

Download Full-text