scholarly journals Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: a modelling study for Portugal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantino Caetano ◽  
Maria Luisa Morgado ◽  
Paula Patricio ◽  
Andreia Leite ◽  
Ausenda Machado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Booster Vaccination ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Peak Reduction ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Lower Magnitude ◽  
The Impact

Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (8) ◽  
pp. 1503-1514 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. ROZENBAUM ◽  
R. De VRIES ◽  
H. H. LE ◽  
M. J. POSTMA
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Natural Infection ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Booster Vaccination ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe aim of this study was to investigate the optimal pertussis booster vaccination strategy for The Netherlands. A realistic age-structured deterministic model was designed. Assuming a steady-state situation and correcting for underreporting, the model was calibrated using notification data from the period 1996–2000. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of different assumptions for parameters surrounded by uncertainty (e.g. duration of protection after natural infection, underreporting factors, and transmission probabilities). The optimal age of an additional booster dose is in the range of 10–15 years, and implementation of this booster dose will reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, although the incidence of symptomatic infections in older age groups will increase. The impact of the different assumptions used in the model was in general limited. We conclude that over a wide range of assumptions, an additional booster dose can reduce the incidence of pertussis in the population.

scholarly journals Evidence of antigenic imprinting in sequential Sarbecovirus immunization

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huibin Lv ◽  
Ray T. Y. So ◽  
Meng Yuan ◽  
Hejun Liu ◽  
Chang-Chun D. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibody Response ◽  
Neutralizing Antibodies ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYAntigenic imprinting, which describes the bias of antibody response due to previous immune history, can influence vaccine effectiveness and has been reported in different viruses. Give that COVID-19 vaccine development is currently a major focus of the world, there is a lack of understanding of how background immunity influence antibody response to SARS-CoV-2. This study provides evidence for antigenic imprinting in Sarbecovirus, which is the subgenus that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to. Specifically, we sequentially immunized mice with two antigenically distinct Sarbecovirus strains, namely SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. We found that the neutralizing antibodies triggered by the sequentially immunization are dominantly against the one that is used for priming. Given that the impact of the background immunity on COVID-19 is still unclear, our results will provide important insights into the pathogenesis of this disease as well as COVID-19 vaccination strategy.

scholarly journals Effect of Bovine Tuberculosis on Selected Productivity Parameters and Trading in Dairy Cattle Kept Under Intensive Husbandry in Central Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rea Tschopp ◽  
Andrew J. K. Conlan ◽  
Gizachew Gemechu ◽  
Gizat Almaw ◽  
Jan Hattendorf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cattle ◽  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Animal Movement ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Impact

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has substantial impact on fertility, milk, and meat productivity in cattle. However, these assumptions are based on outdated data. Recent global studies on the impact of BTB on cattle productivity are scarce and show sometimes inconclusive and/or contradicting results. This pilot study is the first longitudinal study performed in urban upgraded dairy cattle in Ethiopia that are kept under intensive husbandry. We assessed whether BTB has an impact on various animal productivity parameters and animal movement. Animals (N = 890) included in the study were tested for BTB at least once using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CIDT). Fertility, mortality, and offtake were assessed in 21 dairy farms where herd follow-ups over 3 years were performed. In addition, an independent abattoir survey was conducted to assess carcass weight and visible TB-like lesions upon meat inspection. Animal movements (purchasing and offtakes) were documented for each farm. The impact of BTB status on the intervals been birth, service, and calving times and the intercalving intervals was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio associated with BTB-positive animals was smaller than 1 for all fertility parameters, suggesting that BTB status increases the time between events; however, the effect was small and only statistically significant (95% level) for the time between calving and service. Offtakes included a higher percentage of reactor animals (58%) as compared with non-reactor animals (42%) (p = 0.0001). Overall, reactors were eliminated from the farms within 238.6 days after receiving test results, which was 54.9 days faster than for negative animals. The majority of owners purchased animals within their town or its surrounding. Nearly a quarter of reactors were sold directly to other farms. Animals were also sold further away, including other regions, raising the question of disease spread and the need for an animal tracing mechanism. In the abattoir survey, a total of 349 carcasses were weighed, of which 8% showed visible TB-like lesions and 53.6% had fasciolosis. Negative adult bull carcasses were 7.5 kg heavier than reactor bulls.

scholarly journals Analysis of a Multiscale Model of Ebola Virus Disease

2020 ◽  
pp. 53-69
Author(s):  
Duncan O. Oganga ◽  
George O. Lawi ◽  
Colleta A. Okaka
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Multiscale Model ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Disease Free

Multiscale models are ones that link the epidemiological processes dealing with the transmission between hosts and the immunological processes dealing with the dynamics within one host. In this study, a multiscale model of Ebola Virus Disease linking epidemiological and immunological processes has been developed and analysed. The model has considered two infectious classes ; the exposed and the infected individuals. Local and global stability analyses of the Disease Free Equilibrium and the Endemic Equilibrium points of the model show that the disease dies out if the basic reproduction number Rc0 < 1 and persists in the population when Rc0 > 1 respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the rate of vaccination, v , is the most sensitive parameter. This indicates that effort should be directed towards implementing an effective vaccination strategy to control the spread of the disease. It has also been established that when treatment efficacy is scaled up, the viral load goes down and consequently, the transmission between hosts is also reduced. The impact of treatment on the disease spread has also been established through the coupling function (L∗) . The study indicates that a higher percentage of the exposed and the infected individuals should be treated to control the spread of the disease within the population.

The Digital Divide and K-12 Student Computer Use

10.28945/2926 ◽  
2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
James N. Morgan ◽  
Craig A. VanLengen
Keyword(s):  
Digital Divide ◽  
Computer Use ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Limited Basis ◽  
K 12 ◽  
The Impact

The divide between those who have computer and Internet access and those who do not appears to be narrowing, however overall statistics may be misleading. Measures of computer availability in schools often include cases where computers are only available for administration or are available only on a very limited basis (Gootman, 2004). Access to a computer and the Internet outside of school helps to reinforce student learning and emphasize the importance of using technology. Recent U.S. statistics indicate that ethnic background and other demographic characteristics still have substantial impact on the availability and use of computers by students outside of the classroom. This paper examines recent census data to determine the impact of the household on student computer use outside of the classroom. Encouragingly, the findings of this study suggest that use of a computer at school substantially increases the chance that a student will use a computer outside of class. Additionally, this study suggests that computer use outside of the classroom is positively and significantly impacted by being in a household with adults who either use a computer at work or work in an industry where computers are extensively used.

Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) in Bangladesh: Systematic Review of Existing Literature and Transmission Modelling of Seroprevalence Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 284-290
Author(s):  
Jocelyn Chan ◽  
Yue Wu ◽  
James Wood ◽  
Mohammad Muhit ◽  
Mohammed K. Mahmood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Controlled Vocabulary ◽  
Congenital Rubella Syndrome ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Childbearing Age ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
The Impact

Background and Objectives: Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable congenital anomalies. Comprehensive country-level data on the burden of CRS in low and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, are scarce. This information is essential for assessing the impact of rubella vaccination programs. We aim to systematically review the literature on the epidemiology of CRS and estimate the burden of CRS in Bangladesh. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of existing literature and transmission modelling of seroprevalence studies to estimate the pre-vaccine period burden of CRS in Bangladesh. OVID Medline (1948 – 23 November 2016) and OVID EMBASE (1974 – 23 November 2016) were searched using a combination of the database-specific controlled vocabulary and free text terms. We used an age-stratified deterministic model to estimate the pre-vaccination burden of CRS in Bangladesh. Findings: Ten articles were identified, published between 2000 and 2014, including seven crosssectional studies, two case series and one analytical case-control study. Rubella seropositivity ranged from 47.0% to 86.0% among all age population. Rubella sero–positivity increased with age. Rubella seropositivity among women of childbearing age was 81.0% overall. The estimated incidence of CRS was 0·99 per 1,000 live births, which corresponds to approximately 3,292 CRS cases annually in Bangladesh. Conclusion: The estimated burden of CRS in Bangladesh during the pre-vaccination period was high. This will provide important baseline information to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of routine rubella immunisation, introduced in 2012 in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Review on Urban Heat Island in China: Methods, Its Impact on Buildings Energy Demand and Mitigation Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 762
Author(s):  
Liu Tian ◽  
Yongcai Li ◽  
Jun Lu ◽  
Jue Wang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Building Energy Consumption ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
The Impact

High population density, dense high-rise buildings, and impervious pavements increase the vulnerability of cities, which aggravate the urban climate environment characterized by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Cities in China provide unique information on the UHI phenomenon because they have experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development, which have had a great influence on the climate in recent decades. This paper provides a review of recent research on the methods and impacts of UHI on building energy consumption, and the practical techniques that can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of UHI in China. The impact of UHI on building energy consumption depends largely on the local microclimate, the urban area features where the building is located, and the type and characteristics of the building. In the urban areas dominated by air conditioning, UHI could result in an approximately 10–16% increase in cooling energy consumption. Besides, the potential negative effects of UHI can be prevented from China in many ways, such as urban greening, cool material, water bodies, urban ventilation, etc. These strategies could have a substantial impact on the overall urban thermal environment if they can be used in the project design stage of urban planning and implemented on a large scale. Therefore, this study is useful to deepen the understanding of the physical mechanisms of UHI and provide practical approaches to fight the UHI for the urban planners, public health officials, and city decision-makers in China.

scholarly journals Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in Italian adolescents: a cost-effective health opportunity

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Panatto ◽  
P Landa ◽  
D Amicizia ◽  
P L Lai ◽  
E Lecini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Dose Schedule ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
International Setting ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Invasive disease due to Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a serious public health problem even in developed countries, owing to its high lethality rate (8-15%) and the invalidating sequelae suffered by many (up to 60%) survivors. As the microorganism is transmitted via the airborne route, the only available weapon in the fight against Nm invasive disease is vaccination. Our aim was to carry out an HTA to evaluate the costs and benefits of anti-meningococcal B (MenB) vaccination with Trumenba® in adolescents in Italy, while also considering the impact of this new vaccination strategy on organizational and ethics aspects. Methods A lifetime Markov model was developed. MenB vaccination with the two-dose schedule of Trumenba® in adolescents was compared with 'non-vaccination'. Two perspectives were considered: the National Health Service (NHS) and society. Three disease phases were defined: acute, post-acute and long-term. Epidemiological, economic and health utilities data were taken from Italian and international literature. The analysis was conducted by means of Microsoft Excel 2010®. Results Our study indicated that vaccinating adolescents (11th year of life) with Trumenba® was cost-effective with an ICER = € 7,912/QALY from the NHS perspective and € 7,758/QALY from the perspective of society. Vaccinating adolescents reduces the number of cases of disease due to meningococcus B in one of the periods of highest incidence of the disease, resulting in significant economic and health savings. Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate the overall impact of free MenB vaccination in adolescents both in Italy and in the international setting. Although cases of invasive disease due to meningococcus B are few, if the overall impact of the disease is adequately considered, it becomes clear that including anti-meningococcal B vaccination into the immunization program for adolescents is strongly recommended from the health and economic standpoints. Key messages Free, large-scale MenB vaccination is key to strengthening the global fight against invasive meningococcal disease. Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in adolescents is a cost-effective health opportunity.

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on the Health and Social Needs of Sex Workers in Singapore

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rayner Kay Jin Tan ◽  
Vanessa Ho ◽  
Sherry Sherqueshaa ◽  
Wany Dee ◽  
Jane Mingjie Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Sex Work ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Social Needs ◽  
Medical Services ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Sex Worker ◽  
Permanent Resident ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

AbstractWe evaluated the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the sex work industry and assessed how it has impacted the health and social conditions of sex workers in Singapore. We conducted a sequential exploratory mixed methods study amidst the COVID-19 pandemic from April to October 2020, including in-depth interviews with 24 stakeholders from the sex work industry and surveyor-administered structured surveys with 171 sex workers. COVID-19 had a substantial impact on sex workers' income. The illegality of sex work, stigma, and the lack of work documentation were cited as exclusionary factors for access to alternative jobs or government relief. Sex workers had experienced an increase in food insecurity (57.3%), housing insecurity (32.8%), and sexual compromise (8.2%), as well as a decrease in access to medical services (16.4%). Being transgender female was positively associated with increased food insecurity (aPR = 1.23, 95% CI [1.08, 1.41]), housing insecurity (aPR = 1.28, 95% CI [1.03, 1.60]), and decreased access to medical services (aPR = 1.74, 95% CI [1.23, 2.46]); being a venue-based sex worker was positively associated with increased food insecurity (aPR = 1.46, 95% CI [1.00, 2.13]), and being a non-Singaporean citizen or permanent resident was positively associated with increased housing insecurity (aPR = 2.59, 95% CI [1.73, 3.85]). Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has led to a loss of income for sex workers, greater food and housing insecurity, increased sexual compromise, and reduced access to medical services for sex workers. A lack of access to government relief among sex workers exacerbated such conditions. Efforts to address such population health inequities should be implemented.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document