A system dynamics model of the nutritional stages of the Colombian population

Kybernetes ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 554-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose D Meisel ◽  
Olga L. Sarmiento ◽  
Camilo Olaya ◽  
Juan A Valdivia ◽  
Roberto Zarama

Purpose – Overweight, obesity, and physical inactivity have in recent years become an important public health problem worldwide. Investigations that study obesity using a systemic approach in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to study the nutritional stages dynamics within the Colombian urban population. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used a population-level systems dynamics (SD) model that captures the transitions of population by body mass index (BMI) categories. The authors proposed a heuristic to estimate the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories using data from the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey 2005 and 2010. Findings – The Colombian urban population is moving to overweight and obese categories. The TRs from not overweight to overweight and from overweight to obese (0.0076 and 0.0054, respectively) are higher than the TRs from obese to overweight and from overweight to not-overweight (1.025×10e−7 and 3.47×10e−7, respectively). The simulation results show that the prevalences of overweight and obesity will increase by 6.2 and 7.5 percent by 2015, and by 13.4 and 18.9 percent by 2030, respectively. Originality/value – Investigations that study obesity using a systemic approach in LMICs are limited. A SD model was proposed to examine changes in the population’s nutritional stages using population accumulation structures by BMI categories. The authors propose a heuristic to estimate the TRs of individuals between BMI categories. The proposed model can be used to study the effects of policy interventions to prevent overweight and obesity. The authors analyze a few policy intervention strategies.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quraish Sserwanja ◽  
Linet M. Mutisya ◽  
Emmanuel Olal ◽  
Milton W. Musaba ◽  
David Mukunya

Abstract Background: Childhood obesity is an emerging public health problem. Although previously a problem of high-income countries, low- and middle-income countries are now registering higher proportions of overweight and obese children. Studies in Africa have mainly focused on undernutrition among children. This paper explores the factors associated with childhood obesity and overweight in Uganda using data from the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) of 2016.Methods: We used Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) 2016 data of 4,338 children less than five years. Multistage stratified sampling was used to select study participants and data were collected using validated questionnaires. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine factors associated with obesity and overweight among children under the age of five in Uganda.Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 5.0% (217/4338) (95% CI: 4.3–5.6) with overweight at 3.9% (168/4338: 95% CI: 3.2–4.3) and obesity at 1.1% (49/4338: 95% CI: 0.8–1.5). Boys were more likely to be overweight or obese (adjusted odds ratio: aOR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.42–2.82) compared to girls. Furthermore, children from the Western region (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.07–2.44) compared to those from the North, children below the age of 49 months and those with mothers who were overweight or obese (aOR = 3.36; 95% CI 1.53–7.34) were more likely to be obese or overweight compared to their counterparts who were above 48 months and those with underweight mothers respectively.Conclusion: The present study showed male sex, older age of the children, nutritional status of the mothers and region of residence were associated with overnutrition among under five children in Uganda.


Author(s):  
Caroline Pauletto Spanhol Finocchio ◽  
Homero Dewes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to characterize food consumption outside the home and verify the existence of relationships between income, expenditure and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adult individuals in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach – Food expenditure data were used as well as those on the prevalence of overweight and obesity available in the reports from Family Budgets Research carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the years 2002-2003 and 2008-2009. In addition, the authors used the Kruskall-Wallis test to verify whether there were significant differences between the classes of income with respect to the average expenditure on food outside the home. Findings – It was observed that the higher the income of the individual, the greater the expenditure on food outside the home. It was also found that the prevalence of overweight and obesity is higher in individuals who have higher income, particularly among men. Thus, it is suggested that the higher the income of the individual, the larger the expenditure on food outside the home and the greater the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Research limitations/implications – This study used spending on food away from home (FAFH), but the authors know that is need to use other variables like frequency of FAFH and quantities but this data were not available. Practical implications – The study points to the importance of restaurants in the prevention of obesity, since they can offer in their menus foods with fewer calories, and they can also increase the variety and availability of fruits and vegetables. Originality/value – The study discusses the public health problem, obesity, at the same time as it presents the importance of agribusiness in providing a balanced diet for individuals.


2012 ◽  
Vol 194 (18) ◽  
pp. 5122-5123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramani Baddam ◽  
Kwai-Lin Thong ◽  
Tiruvayipati Suma Avasthi ◽  
Sabiha Shaik ◽  
Kien-Pong Yap ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTMany of the developing countries of the Southeast Asian region are significantly affected by endemic typhoid fever, possibly as a result of marginal living standards. It is an important public health problem in countries such as Papua New Guinea, which is geographically close to some of the foci of endemicity in Asia. The severity of the disease varies in different regions, and this may be attributable to genetic diversity among the native strains. Genome sequence data on strains from different countries are needed to clearly understand their genetic makeup and virulence potential. We describe the genomes of twoSalmonellaTyphi isolates from patients with fatal and nonfatal cases of typhoid fever in Papua New Guinea. We discuss in brief the underlying sequencing methodology, assembly, genome statistics, and important features of the two draft genomes, which form an essential step in our functional molecular infection epidemiology program centering on typhoid fever. The comparative genomics of these and other isolates would enable us to identify genetic rearrangements and mechanisms responsible for endemicity and the differential severity of pathogenic salmonellae in Papua New Guinea and elsewhere.


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Carrete ◽  
Pilar Arroyo

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to improve the understanding of drivers and inhibitors of healthy diet behaviors in the context of an emerging economy, such as Mexico, with a severe problem of overweight and obesity. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) and protection motivation theory (PMT) provided the theoretical background for this study. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative approach was used, given the limited amount of information available on consumers’ motivations to change behavior. In-depth interviews with experts in nutrition and four focus groups with consumers from two segments were performed to collect information. Thematic analysis was used to analyze information. Findings – PMT provided a better explanation of current dietary behavior; the positive attitudes that, according to TPB, are the immediate antecedent of behavior offered a poor explanation for autoreported behaviors. Results indicate that perceived low self-efficacy and high costs prevent change of behavior. Meanwhile, low vulnerability and severity among younger consumers adds to the low intention to adopt a healthier diet. In general, sensorial attributes of products, such as texture, flavor, color, smell and appearance, prevail over nutritional attributes. Practical implications – The outline of a social marketing program is suggested after the research findings. This program emphasizes prevention and is intended to complement governmental policies designed to modify the environment to facilitate access to healthy food. Originality value – Social marketing principles have been developed and applied mainly in the context of developed countries. This work contributes to the extension of such principles to an emerging economy with a public health problem related to overweight. Results of the research provide the basis to mold an appropriate intervention.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 904-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingxiu Zhang ◽  
Shurong Wang

Background: There is strong evidence of a positive secular trend in body mass index (BMI) and skinfold thickness (SFT) in most of the world over the past 10 years. However, no studies on this trend have been reported in Shandong Province, China. Aim: The present study assessed the decennial change in BMI and SFT in Shandong Province during the past 10 years and the prevalence of overweight and obesity among adolescents. Subjects and methods: The BMI and SFT of adolescents aged 7 to 18 years was calculated using data from 2 national surveys on students’ constitution and health carried out by the government in 1995 and 2005 in Shandong Province, China. The distribution of BMI and SFT was reported, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity were obtained according to the screening criteria of overweight and obesity for Chinese students using BMI. Results: In the past 10 years, the P50 (50th percentile) of BMI and SFT increased rapidly. The average increments of BMI and SFT were 0.91 kg/m2, 7.99 mm for boys and 0.55 kg/m2, 7.13 mm for girls, respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased rapidly: for overweight from 7.53% (boys), 4.89% (girls) in 1995 to 14.28% (boys), 8.75% (girls) in 2005; and for obesity from 2.92% (boys), 1.72% (girls) in 1995 to 10.78% (boys), 5.76% (girls) in 2005. Conclusion: The average value of BMI and SFT has increased over time; overweight and obesity among adolescents has become a serious public health problem. Comprehensive evidence-based strategies of intervention should be introduced, including periodic monitoring.


BMC Nutrition ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasinthi Swarnamali ◽  
Ranil Jayawardena ◽  
Michail Chourdakis ◽  
Priyanga Ranasinghe

Abstract Background Although it is reported in numerous interventional and observational studies, that a low-fat diet is an effective method to combat overweight and obesity, the relationship at the global population level is not well established. This study aimed to quantify the associations between worldwide per capita fat supply and prevalence of overweight and obesity and further classify this association based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI). Methods A total of 93 countries from four GNI groups were selected. Country-specific overweight and obesity prevalence data were retrieved from the most recent WHO Global Health Observatory database. Per capita supply of fat and calories were obtained from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization database; FAOSTAT, Food Balance Sheet for years 2014–2016. The categorizations of countries were done based on GNI based classification by the World Bank. Results Among the selected countries, the overweight prevalence ranged from 3.9% (India) to 78.8% (Kiribati), while obesity prevalence ranged from 3.6% (Bangladesh) to 46.0% (Kiribati). The highest and the lowest per capita fat supply from total calorie supply were documented in Australia (41.2%) and Madagascar (10.5%) respectively. A significant strong positive correlation was observed between the prevalence of overweight (r = 0.64, p < 0.001) and obesity (r = 0.59, p < 0.001) with per capita fat supply. The lower ends of both trend lines were densely populated by the low- and lower-middle-income countries and the upper ends of both lines were greatly populated by the high-income countries. Conclusions Per capita fat supply per country is significantly associated with both prevalence of overweight and obesity.


Author(s):  
R. Swaminathan Veerasamy ◽  
V. Pragadeesh Raja ◽  
T. Muthukumar ◽  
A. Kalaivani

Background: Suicide is an important public health problem, every year 800000 people due to suicide, Suicide is the third leading cause of death in 15-19-year-old only. Most (79%) of the suicide happened in low and middle-income countries. Among them consuming poisoning is 25.8%. In India 2019 incidence of suicides 10.4 per one lakh (1,00,000) of population. Tamil Nadu is the state of India sharing most of the suicide deaths, second position (9.7%) in 2019 next to Maharashtra (13.6%).Methods: This is a Hospital-based cross-sectional study, this study was conducted among suicide patients who consumed poison by using nonprobability, consecutive sampling. A pretested questionnaire was administered, and information regarding socio-demographic factors, type of poisoning, and outcome of poisoning was obtained. Statistical analysis was done through Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 21.Results: Of 111 suicide poisoning patients admitted, were female (50.5%) and the majority were from a rural area (70.3%). Among suicidal, tablet poisoning was predominant (27.7%), followed by Organophosphorus poisoning (26.8%) and rat killer poisoning (17.1%). The major reason for suicidal poisoning was family problems (58.6%), and the majority of Suicidal poisoning was more among the age group of 11–30 years (67.6%) and middle socioeconomic status (50.5%). The majority of patients were admitted to the hospital with median days of 2 days (range 1-12). Among 111 patients 109 are cured and discharged and death of 2 cases.Conclusions: Suicides are avoidable and preventable deaths, there are so many measures are there in individuals levels particularly high-risk persons and community level also. So many poisoning cases are tablets and organophosphorus so to take steps for reducing access for that like legislative measures and regulations. Early identification of the mentally disturbed persons and to give counselling.  


2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
GOBOPAMANG LETAMO

SummaryThe aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, overweight and obesity in Botswana. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2007 using a multistage sampling method to select a representative sample of 4107 men and 4916 women aged 20–49 years. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the socio-demographic factors associated with overweight and obesity. Mean BMI values for men and women were 21.7 kg/m2 and 24.4 kg/m2, respectively. Both overweight and obesity levels were higher among women than men. Overall, 23% of women were overweight compared with 13% of men. Obese women constituted about 15% compared with only 3% of men. However, 19% of men were underweight compared with 12% of women. The main socio-demographic factors associated with overweight and obesity were being older, living in a city/town, being married and having attained higher levels of education, and these relationships were statistically significant at the 5% level. Although over-nutrition is prevalent among adult female Batswana, underweight remains an important public health problem for males. Programmes and other interventions aimed at concurrently addressing both under-nutrition and overweight need to be developed.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus Ferreira de Aguiar ◽  
Bruna Martins Meireles ◽  
Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro ◽  
Maria Jacirema Ferreira Goncalves

Abstract Background: malaria is a serious problem in the Amazonas state, especially in areas near forests. Indigenous populations living in these areas are very vulnerable to malaria infection. In addition, the disease severely affects children because their immune system is less well developed, and thus causes more severe symptoms. Therefore, the intersection between these two groups, indigenous people and children, is characterized by an important public health problem. The objective is to identify the factors associated with malaria in indigenous children in the Amazonas state, Brazil, from 2007 to 2018.Methods: This is an epidemiological, quantitative and cross-sectional study involving children under 15 years, and using data from health system notifications between 2007 and 2018, with the Amazonas state, Brazil, as a place of residence and probable infection setting. The variables are clinical-epidemiological, laboratorial and case follow-up, which were analyzed then stratified as to whether the case involved indigenous children or those of other races and entries for which no race data was given. The estimation of Odds Ratio with a confidence interval was obtained by multivariate logistic regression. Results: the factors associated with malaria in indigenous children were attributed to being of the female sex, age from 0 to 4 years, passive case surveillance, high load of parasitemia or lack of data regarding the level of parasitemia, parasitic forms containing Plasmodium falciparum were more frequent, as well as timeliness of treatment, which corresponds to the time between the onset of symptoms and the start of treatment being less than 48 hours. Conclusion: the factors associated with malaria in indigenous children highlight the difference in race, suggest more severity of the disease and more malarial infections in this population, and, as a result, malaria has a great impact on the health of the indigenous children.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 1838-1838
Author(s):  
Samuel Scott ◽  
Anjali Pant ◽  
Phuong Nguyen ◽  
Harold Alderman ◽  
Kapil Yadav ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Anemia is globally recognized as an important public health problem in women and children, thus the consequences of anemia have predominantly been described in these two groups. India's large population, high anemia prevalence and male-dominated workforce imply that productivity consequences of anemia in men could have large implications. We sought to explore the association between local anemia rates and productivity outcomes in Indian men. Methods Data on anemia were from the 2015–2016 National Family Household Survey (NFHS) and data on productivity outcomes—number of hours works and total earnings in the last week—were from the 2017–2018 Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), for a combined sample of 245,073 men aged 15–54 years. NFHS was collapsed at three levels (district, urban/rural, and five-year age brackets; n = 9818) and then merged with the full PLFS sample to generate an analytical sample of 135,500 observations. We report sample means using survey weights. Individual-level productivity outcomes were regressed on means from the collapsed data using ordinary least squares regression, adjusting for state of residence, age and education. The primary predictor was anemia quintile, with anemia defined as hemoglobin below 130 g/L from a finger-prick blood sample. Results Anemia affected 23% of men aged 15–54 years in India in 2016 and was more common in rural (25%) than urban (19%) areas. On average, men worked 51.5 hours and earned 2430 Indian Rupees in the last week. In the adjusted models, being in the top quintile of anemia prevalence (ref: lowest quintile) predicted 2.1 fewer hours worked (95% CI 1.5–2.8) and 240 less rupees earned (95% CI 173–307) in the last week (P &lt; 0.001 for both). These effects translate to 4% lost work hours and 10% lost earnings related to anemia. Conclusions Nearly one in four men are anemic in India and our findings suggest that anemia is associated with reduced productivity at the population level. Anemia reduction policies and programs in India should work toward the inclusion of men. Funding Sources Agriculture for Nutrition and Health/IFPRI.


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