National protests put government on notice in Brazil

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
The Government

Significance The protests followed smaller pro-government demonstrations on March 13. Rousseff faces growing social discontent, not only over corruption claims linked to the Petrobras scandal, but also rising unemployment, inflation and taxes. Although no leading opposition party or organisation is coordinating the protests, the government is concerned about the negative impact on Rousseff's approval ratings. Impacts Inflation this year is forecast to surpass the 6.5% maximum target by at least 1 percentage point. Unemployment rose from 4.3% in December to 5.3% in January; companies involved in the Petrobras scandal may see heavy job losses. The government is tightening fiscal policy and establishing new rules to fight tax evasion, but faces congressional opposition.

Trump fear colours Mexican monetary tightening

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Negative Shock

Significance It is the highest level recorded since April 2009. Given the negative shock that US President-elect Donald Trump's November 8 victory caused for Mexico, a sharper interest rate rise had been widely expected. Impacts The reduced economic growth expected for 2017 should have a negative impact on the president's already low approval ratings. More expensive credit should hit consumption only moderately, as interest rates remain quite low by historical standards. If fiscal policy tightening accompanies the monetary move, it will be implemented through spending cuts rather than tax increases.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

Carousel fraud in terms of price manipulation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecília Olexová ◽  
Milan Husťák ◽  
František Sudzina
Keyword(s):  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Legal Cases ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Manipulation ◽  
Legal Texts ◽  
Tax Fraud ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of carousel fraud on the average price of goods, as one of the negative economic aspects of carousel fraud. Design/methodology/approach This paper is primarily based on the description of selected legal cases and the modus operandi of carousel fraud, the analysis of legal texts (legislation and judgments of courts) and the discussion, from the point of view of price manipulation. Findings The results of the analysis specify the negative impact of carousel fraud in the form of the distortion of reported average prices and suggest that the authorities should monitor usual or fair prices to detect cases where there is a risk of carousel fraud. Originality/value This paper brings new insight into the issue of carousel frauds by understanding the principle of carousel fraud, the motives for it, and the possibilities for detecting this type of tax fraud, which is necessary to prevent tax evasion and to preserve a state’s income.

Capital flight and extent of corruption control in the least corrupt African countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thales Pacific Yapatake Kossele ◽  
Magalie Gabriella Ngaba Mbai-Akem
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of corruption control on capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data covering the period of 1996-2010. Findings The results show that the extent of corruption, the total natural resources rent are statistically significant and affect positively the capital across the pooled, random and fixed effects. Inflation and economic growth are also found to have a negative impact on capital flight. Moreover, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on capital flight. Practical implications The findings of this study suggest that the extent of corruption control by responsible institutions can be considered as one of the most effective weapons in the fight against capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. Social implications The paper recommends to the government of the least corrupt countries in Africa to create an enabling political and economic environment for investor’s attractiveness. This, in turn, will reduce the occurrence of capital flight and lead to the sustainable development. Originality/value The findings of this study suggest that the extent of corruption control by responsible institutions can be considered as one of the most effective weapons in the fight against capital flight in the least corrupt African countries. The paper recommends to the government of the least corrupt countries in Africa to create an enabling political and economic environment for investor’s attractiveness. This, in turn, will reduce the occurrence of capital flight and lead to the sustainable development.

Colombia's future rests on justice talks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Similar Process ◽  
Peace Accord ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Public Approval ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject As Colombia's peace talks approach their apparent end date, justice issues are a major sticking point. Significance With barely three months to go until the deadline for a final peace accord, negotiators from the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) need to overcome an impasse on the issue of transitional justice. In August, President Juan Manuel Santos appointed an ad hoc team of six lawyers (three selected by each side) to break the deadlock that had persisted for a year. On September 23, a ten-point communique was revealed in Havana as a basis for further negotiations. Impacts Should the deadlock continue into 2016, Santos's public approval ratings are likely to suffer significantly. The sensitive nature of truth and justice negotiations will see opposition figures attempt to use the issue to discredit the government. The successful conclusion of peace talks could pave the way for a similar process with the ELN.

Pressure will mount on Mexico's external sector

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
External Sector

Subject Mexico's external accounts. Significance The plunge in global oil prices represents a significant blow to the Mexican economy, particularly in terms of fiscal revenue. However, a negative impact is also showing in Mexico's external accounts. Moreover, manufacturing exports are contracting, partly due to problems in the automotive sector. Mexico's floating exchange rate is acting as an effective cushion, and its level of international reserves remains comfortable. Nonetheless, the growing external deficits may spark greater uncertainty about the economy's prospects. Impacts If market confidence deteriorates further, the government may activate the 65-billion-dollar Flexible Credit Line that it has with the IMF. The peso should rebound from the all-time nominal lows it has reached, but only after US growth firms up and the oil price stabilises. Despite the increasing external deficits, the government will not introduce protectionist measures and the opposition will not demand them.

Nigeria's hefty budget will not dispel investor unease

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
State Government ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Final Text

Subject Outlook for Nigeria's 2016 state budget. Significance The Senate this week will forward President Muhammadu Buhari the revised 2016 state budget, which it passed on March 23. Buhari says that he will assess it "ministry by ministry" before signing it into law to ensure that there are no irregularities in the final text. The 6.06-trillion-naira (30.6-billion-dollar) spending plan is 17 billion naira lower than the initial budget proposed by the government in December 2015. Impacts Buhari is unlikely to consider raising the value added tax given its effect on living costs, which would hurt the APC electorally. The central bank will likely keep currency restrictions in place, at least in the short term, despite their negative impact on firms. The tax compliance drive will be most effective in Lagos, due to heavy investment in collection capacity by the state government.

UK Labour’s anti-Semitism row will not abate soon

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labour Party ◽  
Target Audience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political News ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Anti Semitism ◽  
The Government

Significance Corbyn's video appeal, directed at Jewish members of the Labour Party, followed a similar approach to Jewish groups the previous day. However, his attempts to address the anti-Semitism dispute that has engulfed his party are failing to convince either the target audience or his internal critics, with deputy leader Tom Watson warning the same day that the opposition party was failing to present itself as fit to lead the nation. Since parliament went into summer recess on July 24, political news has been dominated not by the Conservative Party’s evident difficulties with Brexit but by the Labour Party’s self-inflicted wounds over anti-Semitism. Impacts The anti-Semitism row limits Labour’s ability to provide effective opposition to the government, including on Brexit. The dispute is likely to alienate Jewish voters. Unaddressed, the issue makes it more likely that Labour MPs will break away from the party in 2019-20 once the Brexit terms are settled.

Thailand’s junta will face new governing pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government

Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.

Expansionary Jordanian budget will contain discontent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Line ◽  
Public Scrutiny ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance That comes as the country’s own parliament prepares to vote on the 2020 fiscal bill before the end of the year. Amman is currently in the last year of a 723-million-dollar IMF credit line, which required it to cut debt levels. The budget is intended to stimulate growth and stave off further protests, while simultaneously persuading the IMF to extend its credit line for another three years during upcoming talks in January. Impacts There will be closer cooperation between the government and parliament over managing the economy. Signs of unrest and public discontent over economic reforms will ease, notably if a tax evasion crackdown features on social media. Razzaz will survive another year as prime minister, having already served 18 months, sending a positive signal to the IMF and investors. King Abdullah and Queen Rania will come under less public scrutiny and distance themselves further from day-to-day politics.

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