Palestinian succession fight will be fierce but quiet

Significance Abbas’s unwavering commitment to a moribund peace process that only deepened Israel’s hold on the occupied Palestinian territories has left him bereft of popular legitimacy. A chain-smoking octogenarian, he has suffered several recent health scares, heating up competition among those looking to succeed him. Impacts The political process with Israel will stay frozen, regardless of a reportedly imminent US peace proposal, which is seen as dead on arrival. Potential leadership candidates will be under pressure to sound hawkish on security cooperation with Israel. Some contenders will begin to reach out to regional powers, notably Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who will provide low-key support.

2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raúúl Beníítez Manaut ◽  
Andrew Selee ◽  
Cynthia J. Arnson

Mexico's democratic transition has helped reduce, if not eliminate, the threat of renewed armed conflict in Chiapas. However, absent more active measures from the government and the Ejéército Zapatista de Liberacióón Nacional (EZLN) to seek a permanent peace agreement and come to terms with the legacies of the past, the conflict will linger on in an unstable déétente, which we term ““armed peace.”” While this situation is far better than the open hostilities of the past, it also belies the promise of a fully democratic society in which all citizens are equally included in the political process. La transicióón democráática en Mééxico ha contribuido a reducir, si no eliminar, la posibilidad de que el conflicto armado en Chiapas se reanude. Sin embargo, sin esfuerzos mas activos por parte del gobierno y del Ejéército Zapatista de Liberacióón Nacional (EZLN) para buscar un acuerdo de paz permanente y saldar cuentas con el pasado, el conflicto permaneceráá en un estado inestable que llamamos ““paz armada””. Aunque esta situacióón es mucho mejor que las tensiones y agresiones del pasado, no cumple los requisitos de una sociedad plenamente democráática en que todos los ciudadanos participan en condiciones de igualdad en el proceso políítico.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


2002 ◽  
Vol 101 (651) ◽  
pp. 8-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Roy

The ongoing crisis among Israelis and Palestinians is not primarily the result of a failed summit, poor implementation, or Netanyahu's intransigence: it is instead the result of a ‘peace’ process that by design altered the political, economic, and physical landscape of the Palestinian territories in a manner that intensified rather than mitigated Palestinian dispossession, deprivation, and oppression, and so precluded a fair and workable settlement of the Palestinian–Israeli conflict.


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 782-792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amira Sghari

Purpose Employee recognition is presented in the literature as a mean to achieve change according to a schedule already established by the management of the enterprise (planning process). Such an approach overlooks the fact that organizational change can be explained by other processes such as the political process, the interpretive process, the incremental process and the complex process. Each of these processes offers specific characteristics of change. Through this research, the author tries to answer the following question, while driving an organizational change project does employee recognition favour a change according to the planned process? The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach To answer the research question, a qualitative research case study is conducted within Basic Bank, a banking leader institution on the Tunisian market. The author analysed a proposed change induced by the implementation of a Global Banking System. Findings The results show that monetary recognition helps develop employee motivation to change, thus, ensuring a planned change. However, its variability has encouraged the emergence of conflicts between the actors resulting in an increase of change according to the political process. Originality/value Found results enrich the previous work on the role of the staff recognition in the change process. Its originality lies in the study of the relationship between employee recognition and explanatory process of change in a dynamic perspective which enables having an overall view on the evolution of this relationship throughout the implementation of the change.


Significance Oman has historically maintained strong business and diplomatic links with Iran, cutting across the anti-Iranian political agenda pressed by Saudi Arabia on the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Economic relations are now more important for Muscat than Tehran, while the political ties are most useful for Iranian foreign policy. However, Oman in January 2017 joined the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, comprising 40 countries excluding Iran and Iraq. Impacts Oman’s urgent need for economic diversification will broaden its search for economic partners. If the Iran-Saudi Arabia regional confrontation worsens, Oman’s midway stance could be tilted by financial benefits from either side. In case of a serious Washington-Tehran showdown, Muscat would maintain quiet links with Iran, but ultimately prioritise US relations.


Subject Japan's participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration will withdraw Japan's Ground Self Defence Force (GSDF) mission from the UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) in South Sudan in May. The decision follows accusations that the government covered up evidence of the dangers the troops were facing, and raises potential questions about Japan’s commitment to its policy of a ‘proactive contribution to peace’. Impacts The announcement of withdrawal will reduce the political impact if there are casualties. Defence Minister Tomomi Inada will probably survive accusations of a cover-up, with ministry officials taking the blame. Japan will contribute personnel to UNPKOs again in future, to gain experience and earn goodwill internationally. There will be minimal implications for Japan's other security cooperation efforts, which focus on deterring China and North Korea.


Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.


Significance A range of parties, old and new, are battling for the attention of two broad electoral constituencies, one inclined towards Europe, and the other looking east to Russia. Moscow has a clear interest in its Socialist allies winning, but that outcome is uncertain. Impacts Perceptions that the political process (regardless of victors) is controlled by oligarchs will dampen investor interest. The EU is already concerned about some of its notional allies in government but would prefer a pro-Western to a pro-Moscow government. The longer-term drift, economic and ultimately political, is towards the EU.


Significance According to these results, Jovenel Moise of the Haitian Party of Bald Heads (PHTK) won a first-round victory with 55.67% of the vote, defeating Jude Celestin of Alternative League for Haitian Progress and Empowerment (Lapeh), who gained just 19.52%. The elections were a rerun of those originally held on October 25, 2015, in which Moise won 32.8% of the vote to Celestin’s 25.2%. Impacts Protests are likely in the run-up to the result’s confirmation, as voters express their dissatisfaction with the political process. The restoration of democratic process should unlock more international aid, some of which was suspended during the political impasse. Security issues will remain a key challenge, exacerbated by the economic damage caused by Hurricane Matthew.


Significance This is the latest in a series of deadly terrorist attacks attributed to al-Shabaab since late July hitting high-profile targets in Mogadishu. The militant group is succeeding in carrying out these strikes as the country prepares for a political transition. Impacts The United States and other Western backers of the Somali government will step up security support to safeguard the elections. Al-Shabaab will accelerate complex attacks into November aimed at soft targets. The attacks will fail to disrupt upcoming indirect elections but could undermine confidence in security and the political process.


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