Burkina Faso: Military reshuffle will not win the war

Significance This comes as part of a general shake-up of the military leadership amid a litany of promises from Kabore and other officials that the country is revamping its counter-terrorism strategy and working to shore up morale among the security forces. Impacts Security issues may complicate plans for the scheduled May 2022 municipal elections. The poor pay and living conditions of soldiers on deployment may exacerbate human rights abuses and could lead to local mutinies. The ongoing trial for the 1987 murder of former President Thomas Sankara will help discredit many former regime figures.

Significance The deployment of the UK troops comes at a time when jihadists attacks are intensifying across the Sahel amid an escalating internecine conflict between the al-Qaida-affiliated Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Impacts Mali’s coup is likely to distract the military leadership away from its core mandate to improve national security. The G5 Sahel Joint Force may continue to struggle to curb jihadist cross-border operations. The deployment of UK troops underscores the still strong commitment of Western governments to improving the security situation in the Sahel.


Author(s):  
Aaron Edwards

This chapter assesses the nine specific clauses in the Sunningdale Agreement that dealt with the implications for security policy in Northern Ireland. It analyses the consequences that these clauses had in Britain’s war against terrorism, especially as the Conservative government sought to shift the operational focus away from military-led counter-insurgency to a law enforcement-led counter-terrorism strategy. Although the policy of ‘police primacy’ did not emerge as Britain’s preferred option for tackling terrorism until 1975-76, this chapter argues that the seeds were sown by the British Government’s approach to the Sunningdale Agreement and the urgency by which it sought a cross-border arrangement with the Republic of Ireland that would enhance the security forces’ powers of pursuit, arrest and extradition. Indeed, the chapter asks whether the Conservative Party’s return to power in 1979 finally heralded a renewed vision for ‘police primacy’ in a more systematic way than that enacted by the Labour Government between 1974 and 1979. The chapter also highlights the theme of democratic control over the military instrument that would remain constant right up to the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985 and beyond. Indeed, it makes the case - pace Evelegh (1978) and Neumann (2003) – that the British government’s use of the military instrument as an option of last resort is fundamental to our understanding of Britain’s long war on Irish terrorism. This is relevant today, of course, particularly as Britain faces another (albeit much less sustained) armed challenge from dissident republicans. In conclusion, the chapter reflects on how liberal democracies more broadly have responded to the challenge posed by terrorism.


Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.


Significance His comments come as Israel and Jordan (which is the custodian of the site) move forward with plans to reduce tension at the site, which has been a flashpoint of conflict for decades, most recently last September, when Muslim and Jewish holidays overlapped. The area, known to Muslims as al-Haram al Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and Jews as the Temple Mount, is one of the most contentious issues dividing Israelis and Palestinians. Impacts Tensions in late April around the Passover holiday (April 22-30) could escalate as nationalist Jews attempt to pray on the Temple Mount. The agreement strengthens Jordan's claim to custodianship of Jerusalem's holy sites while undermining Palestinian claims to Jerusalem. Jordanian-Israeli trust and cooperation will expand, especially in the military and security realms. A violation of the agreement or provocative visits by Israeli MPs could trigger clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces. Renewed violence could undermine Israeli-Jordanian diplomatic and military cooperation, and the tentative Israeli-Turkish detente.


Significance The last major rebel-held area in Syria, Idlib province is under the military control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a salafi-jihadist rebel alliance. Jaysh al-Ahrar, the largest non-al-Qaida faction in HTS, announced on September 13 it was leaving the organisation. This followed the resignation of one of HTS’s top clerics, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, after the leaking of telephone conversations in which the military leadership criticised him harshly. Impacts Renewed unity talks between mainstream rebel factions will encourage another round of pre-emptive attacks by HTS. Likely rejection of HTS’s outreach initiative by the mainstream opposition will empower the hawks within the group. Possible regime operations against HTS would be limited to peripheral strategic positions such as Jisr al-Shughur. US-backed and pro-Damascus forces will seek to avoid clashes around Deir ez-Zour city in their separate offensives against Islamic State. A Russian military presence will deter Turkey from attacking the Syrian Kurds in Afrin and elsewhere.


Subject Tanzanian party politics. Significance By-elections for four parliamentary seats and two ward-level council seats are scheduled for September and October. Several were triggered by opposition MPs defecting to the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. This has severely weakened the opposition. It may also dangerously undermine Tanzania's democratic institutions. Impacts The contest for domestic power will now be firmly centred within CCM, but the party’s popular legitimacy will erode. The efficiency of the public service, which is increasingly closely tied to the party, may suffer. Demands from religious and civil society leaders for constitutional reforms limiting executive power will lose traction. CCM will largely ignore human rights abuses and corruption in the security forces and reward their loyalty through business opportunities.


Significance Recent demonstrations focused on the government’s failure to hold long-delayed municipal elections and voiced frustration with dysfunctional service delivery and deteriorating socio-economic conditions. As a result, President Alpha Conde has unveiled a new electoral code which could allow elections to be held in 2018. Impacts Conde’s grip on the military should ensure short-term stability. Modest growth is unlikely to lead to broader job creation and improvements in public service delivery. Protests in mining communities will persist over jobs and social services.


Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.


Significance Though Sudan’s crisis is essentially domestic -- with the military holding on to power after the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir despite widespread popular calls for civilian government -- the TMC is actively looking for ways to exploit foreign engagement in the crisis in its favour. Impacts Economic pressures are likely to prompt the TMC to seek further Arab financial assistance. Security forces will continue to use repressive measures against protestors. Domestic political resistance to the TMC may deepen.


Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.


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