Prospect Theory in Political Science: Gains and Losses From the First Decade

2004 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rose McDermott
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Jie Xu ◽  
Jian Lv ◽  
Hong-Tai Yang ◽  
Yan-Lai Li

The video conferencing software is regarded as a significant tool for social distancing and getting incorporations up and going. Due to the indeterminacy of epidemic evolution and the multiple criteria, this paper proposes a video conferencing software selection method based on hybrid multi-criteria decision making (HMCDM) under risk and cumulative prospect theory (CPT), in which the criteria values are expressed in various mathematical forms (e.g., real numbers, interval numbers, and linguistic terms) and can be changed with natural states of the epidemic. Initially, the detailed description of video conferencing software selection problem under an epidemic are given. Subsequently, a whole procedure for video conferencing software selection is conducted, the approaches for processing and normalizing the multi-format evaluation values are presented. Furthermore, the expectations provided by DMs under different natural states of the epidemic are considered as the corresponding reference points (RP). Based on this, the matrix of gains and losses is constructed. Then, the prospect values of all criteria and the perceived probabilities of natural states are calculated according to the value function and the weighting function in CPT respectively. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated by an empirical case study, and the comparison analysis and the sensitivity analysis for the loss aversion parameter are conducted to prove the effectiveness and robustness. The results show that considering the psychological characteristics of DMs in selection decision is beneficial to avoid the unacceptable and potential loss risks. This study could provide a useful guideline for managers who intend to select appropriate video conferencing software.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukasz Walasek ◽  
Timothy L Mullett ◽  
Neil Stewart

Walasek and Stewart (2015) demonstrated that loss aversion estimated from fitting accept-reject choice data from a set of 50/50 gambles can be made to disappear or even reverse by manipulating the range of gains and losses experienced in different conditions. André and de Langhe (2020) critique this conclusion because in estimating loss aversion on different choice sets, Walasek and Stewart (2015) have violated measurement invariance. They show, and we agree, that when loss aversion is estimated on the choices common to all conditions there is no difference in prospect theory’s λ parameter. But there are two problems here. First, while there are no differences in λs across conditions, there are very large differences in the proportion of the common gambles that are accepted, which André and de Langhe chose not to report. These choice proportion differences are consistent with decision by sampling (but are inconsistent with prospect theory or any of the alternative mechanisms proposed by André and de Langhe, 2020). Second, we demonstrate a much more general issue related to the issue of measurement invariance: that λ estimated from the accept-reject choices is extremely unreliable and does not generalise even across random splits within large, balanced choice sets. It is therefore not possible to determine whether differences in choice proportions are due to loss aversion or to a bias in accepting or rejecting mixed gambles. We conclude that context has large effects on the acceptance of mixed gambles and that it is futile to estimate λ from accept-reject choices.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jinhui Zhao ◽  
Muzi Li ◽  
Yu Zhou ◽  
Peichong Wang

In the cloud manufacturing environment, innovative service composition is an important way to improve the capability and efficiency of resource integration and realize the upgrading and transformational upgrade of the manufacturing industry. In order to build a stable innovative service composition, we propose a novel composite model, which uses two-way selection according to their cooperation to recommend the most suitable partners. Firstly, a rough number is applied to quantify the semantic evaluation. Using the expectation of cooperative condition as reference points, prospect theory is then applied to calculate the cooperative desires for both sides based on participants’ psychological attitudes toward gains and losses. Next, the cooperative desires are used to establish the two-way selection model of innovative service composition. The solution is determined by using an improved teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm. Compared with traditional combined methods in the cloud manufacturing environment, the proposed model fully considers the long-neglected needs and interests of service providers. Prospect theory takes psychological expectations and varying attitudes of decision makers towards gains and losses into account. Moreover, an interval rough number is used to better preserve the uncertain information during semantic quantification. Experimental results verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimena Gonzalez-Ramirez ◽  
Poonam Arora ◽  
Guillermo Podesta

Farm production often involves family-owned agribusinesses where decisions are made by households or individuals, not corporate managers. As these decisions have important economic, environmental, and social implications, decision-making processes must be understood to foster sustainable agricultural production. Decision experiments, involving lotteries, targeting farmers in the Argentine Pampas were used to estimate prospect theory (PT) parameters. Results suggest that decisions under risk are better represented by prospect theory than by expected utility (EU) theory: Decision makers treat gains and losses differently and use subjective probabilities of outcomes; they are quite loss averse and are more likely to overweigh probabilities of infrequent events, such as large droughts or floods. Statistical testing revealed heterogeneity in the risk tied to land tenure (land owners vs. renters) and agribusiness roles (farmers vs. technical advisors). Perceptions of risk, probability, and outcomes played a large role in the sustainability of production. Due to a strong desire to avoid losses, decision makers have a greater short term focus: Immediate economic outcomes are more salient, and environmental and social investments are framed as costs rather than long-term gains. This research can help design policies, programs, and tools that assist agribusinesses in managing better contradictions across the triple bottom line to ensure greater sustainability.


2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie K. John ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff

Background. Medical choices often evoke great value uncertainty, as patients face difficult, unfamiliar tradeoffs. Those seeking to aid such choices must be able to assess patients’ ability to reduce that uncertainty, to reach stable, informed choices. Objective. The authors demonstrate a new method for evaluating how well people have articulated their preferences for difficult health decisions. The method uses 2 evaluative criteria. One is internal consistency, across formally equivalent ways of posing a choice. The 2nd is compliance with principles of prospect theory, indicating sufficient task mastery to respond in predictable ways. Method. Subjects considered a hypothetical choice between noncurative surgery and palliative care, posed by a brain tumor. The choice options were characterized on 6 outcomes (e.g., pain, life expectancy, treatment risk), using a drug facts box display. After making an initial choice, subjects indicated their willingness to switch, given plausible changes in the outcomes. These changes involved either gains (improvements) in the unchosen option or losses (worsening) in the chosen one. A 2 × 2 mixed design manipulated focal change (gains v. losses) within subjects and change order between subjects. Results. In this demonstration, subjects’ preferences were generally consistent 1) with one another: with similar percentages willing to switch for gains and losses, and 2) with prospect theory, requiring larger gains than losses, to make those switches. Conclusion. Informed consent requires understanding decisions well enough to articulate coherent references. The authors’ method allows assessing individuals’ success in doing so.


2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Dušan Pavlović

Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Miloševiš (2000) and Boris Tadiš (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semipresidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Rana Asgarova

<p>Prospect Theory models behaviour in one-off decisions where outcomes are described. Prospect Theory describes risk aversion when the choice is between gains and risk seeking when the choice is between losses. This asymmetry is known as the reflection effect. In choices about experienced outcomes, individuals show risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses. This change in the direction of gain-loss asymmetry is known as the description-experience gap. Across eight experiments, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in two experiential choice procedures. We compared the obtained results with predictions derived from Prospect Theory and the description-experience gap literature.  In Study 1, we evaluated the predictions of the reversed reflection effect in probability discounting. Probability discounting is loss in reinforcer value as a function of uncertainty. In typical tasks measuring discounting, participants choose between smaller, certain amounts and a larger amount at one of several probabilities. In choice from description, most participants show a gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of the reflection effect, discounting gains more steeply than losses. Across three experiments, we examined whether gain-loss asymmetry also occurred when participants experienced the outcomes they chose, when they chose between two uncertain options, and when these two contexts were combined. Across all of the above contexts, no consistent mean difference in discounting of gains and losses was observed. Rather, in most of the tasks that provided experienced outcomes, the participants showed steeper discounting in the first condition completed, whether it involved choices about gains or losses. Furthermore, subsequent conditions produced shallower discounting, but notably, not shallower than choice based on the expected value of the options. In Studies 2 and 3, we followed-up on this order effect by providing the participants with experience of probabilistic outcomes before the discounting tasks. Participants discounted losses more steeply than gains, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect.  In Study 2, we examined gain-loss asymmetry in a rapid-acquisition choice procedure using concurrent variable-interval schedules – the Auckland Card Task. Participants repeatedly chose between two decks of cards that varied in the frequency or magnitude of available gains or losses. Participants were more sensitive to changes in gain than loss frequency between the two decks, consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect, while sensitivity to gain and loss magnitude did not show an asymmetry. We found a novel asymmetry in the local effects of gains and losses. In the frequency tasks, gains disrupted the general pattern of responding more than losses. In the magnitude tasks, varying the magnitude of losses had a bigger effect on local-level patterns following outcomes than varying the magnitude of gains.  Across the two tasks we observed patterns of gain-loss asymmetry consistent with the predictions of a reversed reflection effect. We also observed several inconsistencies, particularly when comparing behaviour to choices that would maximize the expected returns. Our research suggested that sufficient exposure to chance outcomes and ensuring delivery of scheduled events are key challenges in further refinement of experiential choice in human operant tasks.</p>


2022 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Aaron Anil Chadee ◽  
Xsitaaz T. Chadee ◽  
Clyde Chadee ◽  
Festus Otuloge

The tilted S-shaped utility function proposed in Prospect Theory (PT) relied fundamentally on the geometrical notion that there is a discontinuity between gains and losses, and that individual preferences change relative to a reference point. This results in PT having three distinct parameters; concavity, convexity and the reference point represented as a disjoint between the concavity and convexity sections of the curve. The objective of this paper is to examine the geometrical violations of PT at the zero point of reference. This qualitative study adopted a theoretical review of PT and Markowitz’s triply inflected value function concept to unravel methodological assumptions which were not fully addressed by either PT or cumulative PT. Our findings suggest a need to account for continuity and to resolve this violation of PT at the reference point. In so doing, an alternative preference transition theory, was proposed as a solution that includes a phase change space to cojoin these three separate parameters into one continuous nonlinear model. This novel conceptual model adds new knowledge of risk and uncertainty in decision making. Through a better understanding of an individual’s reference point in decision making behaviour, we add to contemporary debate by complementing empirical studies and harmonizing research in this field. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-03 Full Text: PDF


2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1676) ◽  
pp. 4181-4188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Songfa Zhong ◽  
Salomon Israel ◽  
Hong Xue ◽  
Pak C. Sham ◽  
Richard P. Ebstein ◽  
...  

Prospect theory proposes the hypothesis that people have diminishing sensitivity in valuing increases in the size of monetary outcomes, for both gains and losses. For decision-making under risk, this implies a tendency to be risk-tolerant over losses while being generally risk averse over gains. We offer a neurochemistry-based model of the diminishing valuation sensitivity hypothesis. Specifically, we propose that dopamine tone modulates the sensitivity towards valuation of gains while serotonin tone modulates the sensitivity towards valuation of losses. Consequently, higher dopamine tone would yield a more concave valuation function over gains while higher serotonin tone would yield a more convex valuation function over losses. Using a neurogenetics strategy to test our neurochemical model, we find that subjects with the 9-repeat allele of DAT1 (lower DA tone) are more risk-tolerant over gains than subjects with the 10-repeat allele, and that subjects with the 10-repeat allele of STin2 (higher 5HT tone) are more risk-tolerant over losses than subjects with the 12-repeat allele. Overall, our results support the implications of our model and provide the first neurogenetics evidence that risk attitudes are partially hard-wired in differentiating between gain- and loss-oriented risks.


Games ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Neumann ◽  
Sabrina Kierspel ◽  
Ivo Windrich ◽  
Roger Berger ◽  
Bodo Vogt

Previous research has typically focused on distribution problems that emerge in the domain of gains. Only a few studies have distinguished between games played in the domain of gains from games in the domain of losses, even though, for example, prospect theory predicts differences between behavior in both domains. In this study, we experimentally analyze players’ behavior in dictator and ultimatum games when they need to divide a monetary loss and then compare this to behavior when players have to divide a monetary gain. We find that players treat gains and losses differently in that they are less generous in games over losses and react differently to prior experiences. Players in the dictator game become more selfish after they have had the experience of playing an ultimatum game first.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document