SECOND-ORDER DECISION ANALYSIS

2001 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 13-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
LOVE EKENBERG ◽  
JOHAN THORBIÖRNSON
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Interval Methods ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Computational Aspects ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

The purpose of this work is to provide theoretical foundations of, as well as some computational aspects on, a theory for analysing decisions under risk, when the available information is vague and imprecise. Many approaches to model unprecise information, e.g., by using interval methods, have prevailed. However, such representation models are unnecessarily restrictive since they do not admit discrimination between beliefs in different values, i.e., the epistemologically possible values have equal weights. In many situations, for instance, when the underlying information results from learning techniques based on variance analyses of statistical data, the expressibility must be extended for a more perceptive treatment of the decision situation. Our contribution herein is an approach for enabling a refinement of the representation model, allowing for an elaborated discrimination of possible values by using belief distributions with weak restrictions. We show how to derive admissible classes of local distributions from sets of global distributions and introduce measures expressing into which extent explicit local distributions can be used for modelling decision situations. As will turn out, this results in a theory that has very attractive features from a computational viewpoint.

scholarly journals Cumulative Prospect Theory Version with Fuzzy Values of Outcome Estimates

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov ◽  
Peter Grabusts
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Development History ◽  
Decisions Under Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Choosing solutions under risk and uncertainty requires the consideration of several factors. One of the main factors in choosing a solution is modeling the decision maker’s attitude to risk. The expected utility theory was the first approach that allowed to correctly model various nuances of the attitude to risk. Further research in this area has led to the emergence of even more effective approaches to solving this problem. Currently, the most developed theory of choice with respect to decisions under risk conditions is the cumulative prospect theory. This paper presents the development history of various extensions of the original expected utility theory, and the analysis of the main properties of the cumulative prospect theory. The main result of this work is a fuzzy version of the prospect theory, which allows handling fuzzy values of the decisions (prospects). The paper presents the theoretical foundations of the proposed version, an illustrative practical example, and conclusions based on the results obtained.

Comparison of Probabilistic and Possibility Theory-Based Methods for Design Against Catastrophic Failure Under Uncertainty

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efstratios Nikolaidis ◽  
Harley Cudney ◽  
Sophie Chen ◽  
Raphael T. Haftka ◽  
Raluca Rosca
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
Catastrophic Failure ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Theoretical Foundations ◽  
Better Than

Abstract This paper compares probabilistic and possibility-based methods for design against catastrophic failure under uncertainty. It studies the effect of the amount of information on the effectiveness of each method. The study is confined to problems where the boundary between survival and failure is sharp. First, the paper examines the theoretical foundations of probability and possibility. It also compares the two methods when they are used to assess the risk of a system. Finally, it compares the two methods on two design problems. A major difference between probability and possibility is in the axioms about the union of events. Because of this difference, probability and possibility calculi are fundamentally different and one cannot simulate possibility calculus using probabilistic models. It is shown that possibility-based methods can be less conservative than probability-based methods in systems with many failure modes. On the other hand, possibility-based methods tend to be more conservative than probability-based methods in systems that fail only if many unfavorable events occur simultaneously. Probabilistic methods are better than possibility-based methods if sufficient information is available. However, the latter can be better if little information is available. A principal reason is that it is easier to identify the most conservative possibilistic model than the most conservative probabilistic model that is consistent with the available information.

scholarly journals Meningkatkan Minat Belajar Bahasa Indonesia dengan Membandingkan Model Pembelajaran RADEC dan Model Pembelajaran Konvensional

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Neneng Maryani ◽  
Karin Nurseptiani
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Control Group Design ◽  
Class V ◽  
Group Design ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Conventional Models ◽  
Learning Interest

This research is based on field findings, namely low interest in learning Indonesian, lack of teacher initiative to use varied learning models that cause students to become bored in following the learning process in Indonesian subjects. The purpose of this study is to find out the increased interest in learning Indonesian by comparing the RADEC (Read, Answer, Discuss, Explain, and Create) learning models and conventional learning. The research method used was Nonequivalent Control Group Design with a population of 173 students, and two sample classes namely class V as an experimental class totaling 28 students and class VI as a control class totaling 37 students. From the results by statistical data using SPSS version 24.0 for windows after the data are declared normally distributed and come from homogeneous samples through normality and homogeneity tests, it is known that the results of hypothesis testing using the Compare Means test with Independent Samples Test obtained sig = 0,000. Because the significance <0.05, it can be concluded that Ho is rejected, which means "There is a difference in the increase in interest in learning Indonesian by using the RADEC learning model compared to using the conventional model in SD Negeri Sukamaju, Pagerageung District, Tasikmalaya District". The score is in the interval 66.4 -70.1. Based on this, it can be concluded that the implementation of the RADEC learning model is quite successful in increasing interest in learning Indonesian compared to using conventional models. Suggestions that can be recommended based on the findings of this study include expected to be able to develop RADEC learning models that are collaborated with other learning techniques as an innovation to increase learning interest.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 2)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Der erste Teil des Aufsatzes wurde bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 veröffentlicht, der letzte Teil folgt in Ausgabe 3/2011. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

scholarly journals Optimal Bespoke CDO Design via NSGA-II

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Diresh Jewan ◽  
Renkuan Guo ◽  
Gareth Witten
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Biological Evolution ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Portfolio Optimisation ◽  
Nsga Ii ◽  
Clayton Copula ◽  
Computational Aspects ◽  
Similar Rating ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

This research work investigates the theoretical foundations and computational aspects of constructing optimal bespoke CDO structures. Due to the evolutionary nature of the CDO design process, stochastic search methods that mimic the metaphor of natural biological evolution are applied. For efficient searching the optimal solution, the nondominating sort genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) is used, which places emphasis on moving towards the true Paretooptimal region. This is an essential part of real-world credit structuring problems. The algorithm further demonstrates attractive constraint handling features among others, which is suitable for successfully solving the constrained portfolio optimisation problem. Numerical analysis is conducted on a bespoke CDO collateral portfolio constructed from constituents of the iTraxx Europe IG S5 CDS index. For comparative purposes, the default dependence structure is modelled via Gaussian and Clayton copula assumptions. This research concludes that CDO tranche returns at all levels of risk under the Clayton copula assumption performed better than the sub-optimal Gaussian assumption. It is evident that our research has provided meaningful guidance to CDO traders, for seeking significant improvement of returns over standardised CDOs tranches of similar rating.

scholarly journals Was kann moderne Linguistik für die Fremdsprachendidaktik leisten? Ausgewählte Aspekte

2019 ◽  
pp. 213-226
Author(s):  
Adam Szeluga
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Language ◽  
Cognitive Linguistics ◽  
Language Teaching ◽  
Applied Linguistics ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Generative Grammar ◽  
Foreign Language Teaching ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

The article deals with the most important relations between Foreign Language Didactics and the main theoretical models in modern linguistics, especially the Applied Linguistics of second- and foreign-language teaching. Theories and models of modern linguistics have often laid the theoretical foundations of foreign language teaching, as we can observe in the individual methods and learning techniques (from structuralism to generative grammar, communicativepragmatic turn of the 60s and 70s, cognitive linguistics and to F. Grucza's anthropocentric theory of languages). In this perspective, the purpose of this article is to raise and discuss the question of how modern linguistic theories can improve the effectiveness of language teaching.

scholarly journals Explanation Generation Mechanism for Black Box Recommendation Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 275-279
Keyword(s):  
Recommender System ◽  
Semantic Network ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Semantic Web Technology ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Black Box Models

The recommender system is everywhere, and even streaming platform they have been looking for a maze of user available information handling products and services. Unfortunately, these black box systems do not have sufficient transparency, as they provide littlie description about the their prediction. In contrast, the white box system by its nature can produce a brief description. However, their predictions are less accurate than complex black box models. Recent research has shown that explanations are an important component in bringing powerful big data predictions and machine learning techniques to a mass audience without compromising trust.This paper proposes a new approach using semantic web technology to generate an explanation for the output of a black box recommender system. The developed model is trained to make predictions accompanied by explanations that are automatically extracted from the semantic network.

scholarly journals E-COMMERCE: GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

10.23856/3505 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-51
Author(s):  
Maryna Zavyalova ◽  
Natalia Skrynko ◽  
Zoia Helevachuk
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Development Trends ◽  
Current State ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Online Trading ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

 The paper studies and analyzes the current state and trends in the development of e-Commerce at the global and regional levels. reveals the nuances of domestic e-Commerce and formed its forecast characteristics for the coming period. In the course of the research the theoretical foundations of the category of "e-Commerce" and related concepts of online trading are revealed. the trends of the worldwide development of e-Commerce and the nuances of its implementation in Ukraine are investigated. Based on the critical analysis of statistical data and other information sources. the main prospects for the development of e-Commerce in Ukraine are formed.

scholarly journals Theoretical foundations of the poaching study: problems of legal regulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 937 (2) ◽  
pp. 022031
Author(s):  
I L Tretyakov ◽  
Yu B Shubnikov ◽  
E D Guseinova ◽  
G A Agayev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Far Eastern ◽  
Illicit Trafficking ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Abstract The paper is concerned with theoretical and practical aspects of the poaching phenomenon as national and transnational environmental crime. It critically examines Russian legislation on the use of biological resources in general and countering poaching in particular and presents a review of research con-ducted internationally and in Russia as well as statistical data provided by international organizations and state bodies of the Russian Federation. It also defines the concept of poaching and its legal characteristics, highlights key challenges to countering poaching both within Russia and at the transnational level. Particular emphasis is placed on poaching across the Russia-China border adjacent to the Far Eastern and Siberian Federal Districts which ac-count for the rarest flora and fauna species in Russia. The paper outlines challenges to regulating federal anti-poaching legislation and current pitfalls in combating illicit trafficking of species at the state level. It considers op-posing viewpoints of researchers engaged in this field, their strengths and weaknesses, and suggests possible solutions to the identified problems. The paper concludes that methods of combating poaching are still underdeveloped and require certain legislative improvements at the level of national legislation and international cooperation.л.

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