Spatially Explicit Assessment of Ecosystem Resilience: An Approach to Adapt to Climate Changes

The ecosystem resilience plays a key role in maintaining a steady flow of ecosystem services and enables quick and flexible responses to climate changes, and maintaining or restoring the ecosystem resilience of forests is a necessary societal adaptation to climate change; however, there is a great lack of spatially explicit ecosystem resilience assessments. Drawing on principles of the ecosystem resilience highlighted in the literature, we built on the theory of dissipative structures to develop a conceptual model of the ecosystem resilience of forests. A hierarchical indicator system was designed with the influencing factors of the forest ecosystem resilience, including the stand conditions and the ecological memory, which were further disaggregated into specific indicators. Furthermore, indicator weights were determined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the coefficient of variation method. Based on the remote sensing data and forest inventory data and so forth, the resilience index of forests was calculated. The result suggests that there is significant spatial heterogeneity of the ecosystem resilience of forests, indicating it is feasible to generate large-scale ecosystem resilience maps with this assessment model, and the results can provide a scientific basis for the conservation of forests, which is of great significance to the climate change mitigation.

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The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0322.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (19) ◽

pp. 8315-8337 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lawrence S. Jackson ◽

Declan L. Finney ◽

Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽

John H. Marsham ◽

Douglas J. Parker ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Hadley Circulation ◽

Moist Convection ◽

Rain Belt ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Convective Scale ◽

Mean Climate

AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.

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Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15192 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jonathan Doelman ◽

Tom Kram ◽

Benjamin Bodirsky ◽

Isabelle Weindle ◽

Elke Stehfest

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Food Security ◽

Food Production ◽

Large Scale ◽

Sustainable Development Goals ◽

Integrated Assessment Model ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Development Goals

The human population has substantially grown and become wealthier over the last decades. These developments have led to major increases in the use of key natural resources such as food, energy and water causing increased pressure on the environment throughout the world. As these trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future, a crucial question is how the provision of resources as well as the quality of the environment can be managed sustainably.Environmental quality and resource provision are intricately linked. For example, food production depends on availability of water, land suitable for agriculture, and favourable climatic circumstances. In turn, food production causes climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, and affects biodiversity through conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and through the effects of excessive fertilizer and use of pesticides. There are many examples of the complex interlinkages between different production systems and environmental issues. To handle this complexity the nexus concept has been introduced which recognizes that different sectors are inherently interconnected and must be investigated in an integrated, holistic manner.Until now, the nexus literature predominantly exists of local studies or qualitative descriptions. This study present the first qualitative, multi-model nexus study at the global scale, based on scenarios simultaneously developed with the MAgPIE land use model and the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The goal is to quantify synergies and trade-offs between different sectors of the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Each scenario is designed to substantially improve one of the nexus sectors water, land, energy, food or climate. A number of indicators that capture important aspects of both the nexus sectors and related SDGs is selected to assess whether these scenarios provide synergies or trade-offs with other nexus sectors, and to quantify the effects. Additionally a scenario is developed that aims to optimize policy action across nexus sectors providing an example of a holistic approach that achieves multiple sustainable development goals.The results of this study highlight many synergies and trade-offs. For example, an important trade-off exists between climate change policy and food security targets: large-scale implementation of bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets negatively impacts food security. An interesting synergy exists between the food, water and climate sectors: promoting healthy diets reduces water use, improves water quality and increases the uptake of carbon by forests.

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Preliminary recognition of state of incorporating climate change impacts and adaptation considerations in SEA and EIA procedures for renewable energy projects

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/202015407004 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 154 ◽

pp. 07004

Author(s):

Magdalena Tyszer ◽

Slávka Gałaś

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Renewable Energy ◽

Power Plants ◽

Large Scale ◽

Global Climate ◽

Specific Reference ◽

The European Union ◽

Implementation Climate ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Energy Projects

In the last years, the European Union has developed and set a several environmental policies whose imposes an obligation on Member States to implement specific actions, including incorporating climate change considerations into SEA and EIA processes. One of major environmental challenges facing most developing countries is that of global climate change. The aim of the research was to obtain a comprehensive review of existing SEA and EIA practical approaches for renewable energy installations in the aspect of adaptation to climate change with specific reference to Polish projects. Both SEA and EIA procedures implemented in Poland and other countries was introduced with the intent of factoring in potential risk to the environment by future large-scale project developments such as the construction of power plants, roads, or dams. The paper consist the initial recognition of available data of the current experience and level of implementation climate change impact and adaptions into local procedures. Preliminary results suggest that the additional funding should be given for climate change adaptation in the energy sector, especially in renewable energy projects, as well as specific interventions for climate-adapted energy systems should be targeted in order to fill the gap in RES sector and spur sustainable energy development.

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Water Flow and Beaver Habitat in Grand Teton National Park: Adaptation to Climate Change

The UW National Parks Service Research Station Annual Reports ◽

10.13001/uwnpsrc.2014.4043 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 37 ◽

pp. 38-48

Author(s):

William Gribb ◽

Henry Harlow

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

National Park ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Keystone Species ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Snake River ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Grand Teton National Park ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Beavers are a keystone species in Grand Teton National Park and are critical to the aquatic and terrestrial landscape. Modifications to their habitat by climate change impact multiple species. This study is designed to examine the current distribution and habitat of beavers in Grand Teton National Park and analyze the alterations to this distribution and habitat based on climate change. Field and aerial surveys were completed to determine the distribution of beaver colonies in Grand Teton National Park. Beaver habitat was constructed by integrating field surveys of vegetation, soils and hydrologic characteristics with satellite imagery classification. A model of climate change was utilized in an effort to distinguish potentially different rates of temperature and precipitation change into the 21st century. The results of the climate model were then integrated into a watershed assessment model to determine stream flow in the Snake River basin. The decreasing flow rates are critical to beaver habitat for cottonwoods and willow species and beaver settlement and movement and will limit their movement. In addition, the Snake River below Jackson Lake Dam is regulated for irrigation into Idaho and the decreasing flows on the Snake River below the Jackson Lake Dam will also impact water availability for beaver habitats. Decreases in precipitation availability will increase irrigation demand causing changes in the Snake River flow patterns. Management conflicts exist between preserving and maintaining beaver habitat in the national park and meeting the irrigation

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Adaptation Mechanisms in Agriculture for Climate Change in Nepal

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v11i1.7219 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 81-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mina Nath Paudel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Food Shortage ◽

Soil Productivity ◽

Special Issue ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Adaptation Mechanisms ◽

High Himalayas ◽

Agriculture Systems ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

In Nepal, impacts of climate change can be observed in varying levels of climate that are prevalent in diversified topography and vegetation. Broadly speaking, there are impacts of climate change in the Terai lowlands, the mid-hill valleys and mountains, and in the high Himalayas. Nepal is a unique climatic laboratory for studying the impacts of climate change.Sixty-five percent of the Nepalese people engage in agriculture and more than 32% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes from it. There are evidences of climate change in frequently changing monsoonal patterns resulting in droughts, floods, landslides, and other unexpected results that impair subsistence agriculture systems in the country. As a result, there is chronic food shortage in remote hills, and in the mountains, and the Terai, the grain bowl of Nepal, has been hit by food shortage. To date, around 3.9 million people have suffered from hunger and poverty. There are reports that major food crops of rice, maize, and wheat production have declined due to changes in monsoon patterns, insurgence of new pests, and decline in soil productivity. Efforts have been initiated to adopt drought and pest tolerant varieties, changes in planting time, and method of plantings as strategies for adaptation to climate change in agriculture. This paper attempts to highlight adaptation as a strategy to address issues of climate changes from the perspective of Nepalese agriculture.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7219 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.81-85

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Storylines of plausible past and future climates for the July 2019 European heatwave

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14302 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Antonio Sánchez Benítez ◽

Thomas Jung ◽

Helge Goessling ◽

Felix Pithan ◽

Tido Semmler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Large Scale ◽

Western Europe ◽

Bowen Ratio ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Temperature Record ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

The Future

Under the current global warming trend, heatwaves are becoming more intense, frequent, and longer-lasting; and this trend will continue in the future. In this context, the recent 2019 summer was exceptionally hot in large areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with embedded heatwaves, as for example the June and July 2019 European events, redrawing the temperature record map in western Europe. Large-scale dynamics (associated with blockings or subtropical ridges) play a key role in explaining these-large scale events.Conceptually, global warming can be split into two different contributions: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes. Whereas dynamic changes remain highly uncertain, some thermodynamic changes can be quantified with higher confidence. We exploit this concept by studying how these recent European heatwaves would have developed in a pre-industrial climate and how it would develop in the future for 1.5, 2 and 4 &#186;C warmer climates (storyline scenarios). To do so, we employ the spectral nudging technique with AWI-CM (CMIP6 model, a combination of ECHAM6 AGCM + FESOM Sea Ice-Ocean Model). Large-scale dynamics are prescribed by reanalysis data (ERA5). Meanwhile, the model is run for different boundary conditions corresponding to preindustrial and future climates along the SSP370 forcing scenario. This approach can be useful to help understand and communicate what climate change will mean to people&#8217;s life and hence facilitate effective decision-making regarding adaptation to climate change, as we are quantifying how recent outstanding events would be modified by our climate action.&#160;Temperatures during the heatwaves often increase twice as much as global mean temperatures, especially in a future 4 &#186;C warmer climate. In this future climate, maximum temperatures can locally reach 50&#186;C in many western Europe countries. Nighttime temperatures would be similar to the daytime temperatures in a preindustrial world. The global warming amplification can be partly explained by a robust soil drying in the future 4 &#186;C warmer climate (exacerbated due to the June 2019 heatwave) which is transmitted to a robust increase in Bowen ratio. Importantly, by design of our study, this response occurs without any changes in atmospheric circulation.

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WaterWorld: a self-parameterising, physically based model for application in data-poor but problem-rich environments globally

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2012.217 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 44 (5) ◽

pp. 748-769 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

Mark Mulligan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Large Scale ◽

Policy Support ◽

Heterogeneous Environments ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Management Interventions ◽

Very High Spatial Resolution ◽

Physically Based ◽

The Impact

This paper describes a spatially explicit, physically based global model for water balance. Its key innovations include the fact that it comes with all data required for application, is very high spatial resolution (1 km or 1-hectare resolution) and yet global in extent and is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little or no available data. The model, WaterWorld, is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950–2000 and allows users to apply ensemble scenarios for climate change or examine the impact of policy options for land cover change or land management interventions. WaterWorld is focused on policy support, especially in conservation hydrology and development applications and is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The paper discusses the paucity of hydrological data and the urgency of hydrological problems in much of the less-developed world, which reinforce the need for tools like WaterWorld. We discuss the types of hydrological problems that models might contribute to managing and the requirements of models applied to such problems. By way of example, applications of WaterWorld to understanding large-scale patterns of water resources and uncertainty around adaptation to climate change are described.

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Adaptation to climate change and variability: a case of direct seeded rice in Andhra Pradesh, India

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.141 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 419-430 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Krishna Reddy Kakumanu ◽

Gurava Reddy Kotapati ◽

Udaya Sekhar Nagothu ◽

Palanisami Kuppanan ◽

Suresh Reddy Kallam

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Supply ◽

Andhra Pradesh ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

System Level ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Active Involvement ◽

Climate Change And Variability ◽

Direct Seeded

Abstract Farmers, researchers and policy-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential impacts of climate change. Researchers are using various climate models to assess the impacts and identifying relevant alternative adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change. In India, rice is the major cereal crop grown and is influenced due to climate change and variability, inadequate water supply, labour shortage and methane emissions from rice ecosystems. This necessitates adoption action and upscaling of key adaption strategies like direct seeded rice (DSR) using validated data from rice growing areas in India. The study used experimental data of 2010–2014 and field survey data of DSR and non-DSR farmers collected during 2014. Results show that DSR method has incurred less tillage and labour costs by eluding puddling and transplantation by labour. Large-scale adoption of DSR was observed during 2012–2015 in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh. This was mainly due to the delayed monsoon and water supply, reduction in cost of cultivation, capacity building of stakeholders and their active involvement in awareness and training programmes. The study has demonstrated that integrated extension approach in technology dissemination and scaling-out through stakeholder integration is crucial. However, a mission mode framework is needed for technology upscaling at system level.

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Reconciling collaborative action research with existing institutions: insights from Dutch and German climate knowledge programmes

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2014.084 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 89-103 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Catrien Termeer ◽

Arwin van Buuren ◽

Joerg Knieling ◽

Manuel Gottschick

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Action Research ◽

Large Scale ◽

Focal Point ◽

Collaborative Action Research ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Collaborative Action ◽

Underlying Mechanisms ◽

Set Up ◽

The Many

Researchers and policymakers increasingly aim to set up collaborative research programmes to address the challenges of adaptation to climate change. This does not only apply for technical knowledge, but for governance knowledge also. Both the Netherlands and Germany have set up large-scale collaborative action research (CAR) programmes for the governance of adaptation to climate change. Despite the collaborative designs, the initial enthusiasm, the available resources and the many positive outcomes, both programmes encountered several stubborn difficulties. By comparing both programmes, this paper explores the difficulties researchers encounter, analyses the underlying mechanisms and presents some lessons. It found that many difficulties are related to the tensions that exist between the assumptions underlying the new collaborative trajectories and the logics of the existing policy and research institutions. These institutional misfits are decisive to explain ultimate difficulties and successes. Furthermore, the paper concludes that risk aversion, stereotyping and scale fixation strengthen institutional misfits; and that these misfits persist due to lacking bridging capabilities. We suggest some lessons that can help to resolve the difficulties and reconcile CAR into existing institutions: organize the knowledge arrangement as a collaborative process; construct boundary objects as focal point for collaboration; and invest in bridging capabilities.

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