scholarly journals Novel Prediction Model for COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Based on an LSTM Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Eman H. Alkhammash ◽  
Haneen Algethami ◽  
Reem Alshahrani
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Adaptive Learning ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Statistical Hypothesis ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Short Term

The rapid emergence of the novel SARS-CoV-2 poses a challenge and has attracted worldwide attention. Artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to combat this pandemic and control the spread of the virus. In particular, deep learning-based time-series techniques are used to predict worldwide COVID-19 cases for short-term and medium-term dependencies using adaptive learning. This study aimed to predict daily COVID-19 cases and investigate the critical factors that increase the transmission rate of this outbreak by examining different influential factors. Furthermore, the study analyzed the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention measures. A fully connected deep neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer model were used as the AI models for the prediction of new COVID-19 cases. Initially, data preprocessing and feature extraction were performed using COVID-19 datasets from Saudi Arabia. The performance metrics for all models were computed, and the results were subjected to comparative analysis to detect the most reliable model. Additionally, statistical hypothesis analysis and correlation analysis were performed on the COVID-19 datasets by including features such as daily mobility, total cases, people fully vaccinated per hundred, weekly hospital admissions per million, intensive care unit patients, and new deaths per million. The results show that the LSTM algorithm had the highest accuracy of all the algorithms and an error of less than 2%. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of COVID-19 containment. This study also provides insights into the prevention of future outbreaks.

scholarly journals Deep Learning-Based Sentiment Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination Responses from Twitter Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Kazi Nabiul Alam ◽  
Md Shakib Khan ◽  
Abdur Rab Dhruba ◽  
Mohammad Monirujjaman Khan ◽  
Jehad F. Al-Amri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Severe Anxiety

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on many people, creating severe anxiety, fear, and complicated feelings or emotions. After the initiation of vaccinations against coronavirus, people’s feelings have become more diverse and complex. Our aim is to understand and unravel their sentiments in this research using deep learning techniques. Social media is currently the best way to express feelings and emotions, and with the help of Twitter, one can have a better idea of what is trending and going on in people’s minds. Our motivation for this research was to understand the diverse sentiments of people regarding the vaccination process. In this research, the timeline of the collected tweets was from December 21 to July21. The tweets contained information about the most common vaccines available recently from across the world. The sentiments of people regarding vaccines of all sorts were assessed using the natural language processing (NLP) tool, Valence Aware Dictionary for sEntiment Reasoner (VADER). Initializing the polarities of the obtained sentiments into three groups (positive, negative, and neutral) helped us visualize the overall scenario; our findings included 33.96% positive, 17.55% negative, and 48.49% neutral responses. In addition, we included our analysis of the timeline of the tweets in this research, as sentiments fluctuated over time. A recurrent neural network- (RNN-) oriented architecture, including long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), was used to assess the performance of the predictive models, with LSTM achieving an accuracy of 90.59% and Bi-LSTM achieving 90.83%. Other performance metrics such as precision,, F1-score, and a confusion matrix were also used to validate our models and findings more effectively. This study improves understanding of the public’s opinion on COVID-19 vaccines and supports the aim of eradicating coronavirus from the world.

Ensemble-Based Feature Selection With Long Short-Term Memory for Classification of Network Intrusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 228-245
Author(s):  
Preethi D. ◽  
Neelu Khare
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Network Intrusion ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

This chapter presents an ensemble-based feature selection with long short-term memory (LSTM) model. A deep recurrent learning model is proposed for classifying network intrusion. This model uses ensemble-based feature selection (EFS) for selecting the appropriate features from the dataset and long short-term memory for the classification of network intrusions. The EFS combines five feature selection techniques, namely information gain, gain ratio, chi-square, correlation-based feature selection, and symmetric uncertainty-based feature selection. The experiments were conducted using the standard benchmark NSL-KDD dataset and implemented using tensor flow and python. The proposed model is evaluated using the classification performance metrics and also compared with all the 41 features without any feature selection as well as with each individual feature selection technique and classified using LSTM. The performance study showed that the proposed model performs better, with 99.8% accuracy, with a higher detection and lower false alarm rates.

scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting of Off-Street Parking Occupancy

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110363
Author(s):  
Elisabeth S. Fokker ◽  
Thomas Koch ◽  
Marco van Leeuwen ◽  
Elenna R. Dugundji
Keyword(s):  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Public Transport ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Time Variability ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
The Impact

Information and communication technologies have opened the way to guide recent developments in the field of parking. In this paper these technologies are applied to model a decision support system that gives insight into 6-months ahead parking occupancy forecasts for 57 off-street parking locations in Amsterdam. An effect analysis was conducted into the influence of weather-, event-, parking tariff-, and public transport attributes on parking occupancy. The most influential factors on the parking occupancy were the scheduling of artistic and sports events, the addition of a public transport line, and the weather variables thunderstorm, average wind speed, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration. Parking tariffs did not significantly contribute to model performance, which could have been because of the lack of data and time variability in the parking tariffs of the examined parking locations. The forecasting algorithms compared were the seasonal naive model as a benchmark approach, the Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with and without exogenous regressors (SARIMAX and SARIMA, respectively), exponential smoothing models, and the long short-term memory neural network. The SARIMAX model outperformed the other algorithms for the 6-months ahead forecasts according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). By including the event factor, the model improved by 24% based on the RMSE. Weather variables improved the predictive performance by 8%. Future studies could focus on the addition of more event variables, extension into an online model, and the impact of spatial–temporal features on parking occupancy.

scholarly journals Detecting Fake News Over Job Posts via Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory (BIDLSTM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
T. V. Divya ◽  
Barnali Gupta Banik
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Word Embedding ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Online Social Media ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Fake news detection on job advertisements has grabbed the attention of many researchers over past decade. Various classifiers such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost Classifier and Random Forest (RF) methods are greatly utilized for fake and real news detection pertaining to job advertisement posts in social media. Bi-Directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) classifier is greatly utilized for learning word representations in lower-dimensional vector space and learning significant words word embedding or terms revealed through Word embedding algorithm. The fake news detection is greatly achieved along with real news on job post from online social media is achieved by Bi-LSTM classifier and thereby evaluating corresponding performance. The performance metrics such as Precision, Recall, F1-score, and Accuracy are assessed for effectiveness by fraudulency based on job posts. The outcome infers the effectiveness and prominence of features for detecting false news. .

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting of Microgrid via Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 7076 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Moradzadeh ◽  
Sahar Zakeri ◽  
Maryam Shoaran ◽  
Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo ◽  
Fazel Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Input Variables

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is the most appropriate type of forecasting for both electricity consumers and generators. In this paper, STLF in a Microgrid (MG) is performed via the hybrid applications of machine learning. The proposed model is a modified Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) called SVR-LSTM. In order to forecast the load, the proposed method is applied to the data related to a rural MG in Africa. Factors influencing the MG load, such as various household types and commercial entities, are selected as input variables and load profiles as target variables. Identifying the behavioral patterns of input variables as well as modeling their behavior in short-term periods of time are the major capabilities of the hybrid SVR-LSTM model. To present the efficiency of the suggested method, the conventional SVR and LSTM models are also applied to the used data. The results of the load forecasts by each network are evaluated using various statistical performance metrics. The obtained results show that the SVR-LSTM model with the highest correlation coefficient, i.e., 0.9901, is able to provide better results than SVR and LSTM, which have the values of 0.9770 and 0.9809, respectively. Finally, the results are compared with the results of other studies in this field, which continued to emphasize the superiority of the SVR-LSTM model.

scholarly journals Streamflow prediction using an integrated methodology based on convolutional neural network and long short-term memory networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujan Ghimire ◽  
Zaher Mundher Yaseen ◽  
Aitazaz A. Farooque ◽  
Ravinesh C. Deo ◽  
Ji Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

AbstractStreamflow (Qflow) prediction is one of the essential steps for the reliable and robust water resources planning and management. It is highly vital for hydropower operation, agricultural planning, and flood control. In this study, the convolution neural network (CNN) and Long-Short-term Memory network (LSTM) are combined to make a new integrated model called CNN-LSTM to predict the hourly Qflow (short-term) at Brisbane River and Teewah Creek, Australia. The CNN layers were used to extract the features of Qflow time-series, while the LSTM networks use these features from CNN for Qflow time series prediction. The proposed CNN-LSTM model is benchmarked against the standalone model CNN, LSTM, and Deep Neural Network models and several conventional artificial intelligence (AI) models. Qflow prediction is conducted for different time intervals with the length of 1-Week, 2-Weeks, 4-Weeks, and 9-Months, respectively. With the help of different performance metrics and graphical analysis visualization, the experimental results reveal that with small residual error between the actual and predicted Qflow, the CNN-LSTM model outperforms all the benchmarked conventional AI models as well as ensemble models for all the time intervals. With 84% of Qflow prediction error below the range of 0.05 m3 s−1, CNN-LSTM demonstrates a better performance compared to 80% and 66% for LSTM and DNN, respectively. In summary, the results reveal that the proposed CNN-LSTM model based on the novel framework yields more accurate predictions. Thus, CNN-LSTM has significant practical value in Qflow prediction.

scholarly journals Improving Electric Energy Consumption Prediction Using CNN and Bi-LSTM

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (20) ◽  
pp. 4237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuong Le ◽  
Minh Thanh Vo ◽  
Bay Vo ◽  
Eenjun Hwang ◽  
Seungmin Rho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
The State ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electric Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Consumption Prediction ◽  
Consumption Prediction

The electric energy consumption prediction (EECP) is an essential and complex task in intelligent power management system. EECP plays a significant role in drawing up a national energy development policy. Therefore, this study proposes an Electric Energy Consumption Prediction model utilizing the combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) that is named EECP-CBL model to predict electric energy consumption. In this framework, two CNNs in the first module extract the important information from several variables in the individual household electric power consumption (IHEPC) dataset. Then, Bi-LSTM module with two Bi-LSTM layers uses the above information as well as the trends of time series in two directions including the forward and backward states to make predictions. The obtained values in the Bi-LSTM module will be passed to the last module that consists of two fully connected layers for finally predicting the electric energy consumption in the future. The experiments were conducted to compare the prediction performances of the proposed model and the state-of-the-art models for the IHEPC dataset with several variants. The experimental results indicate that EECP-CBL framework outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of several performance metrics for electric energy consumption prediction on several variations of IHEPC dataset in real-time, short-term, medium-term and long-term timespans.

scholarly journals A Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model Algorithm for Predicting COVID-19 in Gulf Countries

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1118
Author(s):  
Theyazn H. H. Aldhyani ◽  
Hasan Alkahtani
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Accurate Prediction ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Accurate prediction models have become the first goal for aiding pandemic-related decisions. Modeling and predicting the number of new active cases and deaths are important steps for anticipating and controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. The aim of this research was to develop an accurate prediction system for the COVID-19 pandemic that can predict the numbers of active cases and deaths in the Gulf countries of Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. The novelty of the proposed approach is that it uses an advanced prediction model—the bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network deep learning model. The datasets were collected from an available repository containing updated registered cases of COVID-19 and showing the global numbers of active COVID-19 cases and deaths. Statistical analyses (e.g., mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error, and Spearman’s correlation coefficient) were employed to evaluate the results of the adopted Bi-LSTM model. The Bi-LSTM results based on the correlation metric gave predicted confirmed COVID-19 cases of 99.67%, 99.34%, 99.94%, 99.64%, 98.95%, and 99.91% for Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, respectively, while testing the Bi-LSTM model for predicting COVID-19 mortality gave accuracies of 99.87%, 97.09%, 99.53%, 98.71%, 95.62%, and 99%, respectively. The Bi-LSTM model showed significant results using the correlation metric. Overall, the Bi-LSTM model demonstrated significant success in predicting COVID-19. The Bi-LSTM-based deep learning network achieves optimal prediction results and is effective and robust for predicting the numbers of active cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the studied Gulf countries.

scholarly journals A semi-parametric, state-space compartmental model with time-dependent parameters for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eamon B O'Dea ◽  
John M Drake
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Kinetics Of ◽  
Better Than

Short-term forecasts of the dynamics of COVID-19 in the period up to its decline following mass vaccination was a task that received much attention but proved difficult to do with high accuracy. A major obstacle has been capturing variations in the underlying kinetics of transmission resulting from changes in public policy, individual behaviors, and evolution of the virus. However, the availability of standardized forecasts and versioned data sets from this period allows for continued work in this area. Here we introduce the Gaussian Infection State Space with Time-dependence (GISST) forecasting model. We evaluate its performance in 1-4 week ahead forecasts of COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths in the state of California made with official reports of COVID-19, Google's mobility reports, and vaccination data available each week from June 29, 2020 to April, 26, 2021. Evaluation of these forecasts with a weighted interval score shows them to consistently outperform a naive baseline forecast and often score closer to or better than a high-performing ensemble forecaster. The GISST model also provides parameter estimates for a compartmental model of COVID-19 dynamics, includes a regression submodel for the transmission rate, and allows for parameters to vary over time according to a random walk. GISST provides a novel, balanced combination of computational efficiency, model interpretability, and applicability to large multivariate data sets that may prove useful in improving the accuracy of infectious disease forecasts.

scholarly journals Time Series Forecasting of Agricultural Products’ Sales Volumes Based on Seasonal Long Short-Term Memory

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 8169
Author(s):  
Tae-Woong Yoo ◽  
Il-Seok Oh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we propose seasonal long short-term memory (SLSTM), which is a method for predicting the sales of agricultural products, to stabilize supply and demand. The SLSTM model is trained using the seasonality attributes of week, month, and quarter as additional inputs to historical time-series data. The seasonality attributes are entered into the SLSTM network model individually or in combination. The performance of the proposed SLSTM model was compared with those of auto_arima, Prophet, and a standard LSTM in terms of three performance metrics (mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and normalization mean absolute error (NMAE)). The experimental results show that the error rate of the proposed SLSTM model is significantly lower than those of other classical methods.

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