scholarly journals Forecasting of Hazard Zone due to Storm Surge Using SIND Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Dong Hyun Kim ◽  
Hyung Ju Yoo ◽  
Seung Oh Lee
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Governing Equation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Shape Similarity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fast Calculation ◽  
Fem Method ◽  
Hazard Zone ◽  
Verification Process ◽  
Simulation Time

We have developed the SIND (scientific interpolation for natural disasters) model to forecast natural hazard zone for storm surge. Most previous studies have been conducted to predict hazard zone with numerical simulations based on various scenarios. It is hard to predict hazard zone for all scenarios and to respond immediately because most numerical models are requested a long simulation time and complicated postprocess, especially in coastal engineering. Thus, in this study, the SIND model was developed to overcome these limitations. The principal developing methods are the scientific interpolation for risk grades and trial and error for parameters embedded in the governing equation. Even designed with hatch files, applying disaster characteristics such as the risk propagation, the governing equation for storm surge in coastal lines was induced from the mathematical solver, COMSOL Multiphysics software that solves partial differential equations for multiple physics using FEM method. The verification process was performed through comparison with the official reference, and the accuracy was calculated with a shape similarity indicating the geometric similarity of the hazard zone. It was composed of position, shape, and area criteria. The accuracy of about 80% in terms of shape similarity was archived. The strength of the model is high accuracy and fast calculation time. It took only less than few seconds to create a hazard map for each scenario. As future works, if the characteristics of other disasters would be understood well, it would be able to present risk propagation induced from each natural disaster in a short term, which should help the decision making for EAP.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gaël Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Storm Surge Hazard Assessment of the Levee of a Rapidly Developing City-Based on LiDAR and Numerical Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 3723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingrong Liu ◽  
Chengqing Ruan ◽  
Jingtian Guo ◽  
Jian Li ◽  
Xihu Lian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Point Cloud ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
3D Point Cloud ◽  
Point Cloud Data ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Cloud Data

Rapidly developing cities could require an urgent hazard assessment to ensure the protection of their economy and population against natural disasters. However, these cities that have rapidly developed should have historical records of observations that are too short to provide sufficient data information for such an assessment. This study used ocean numerical models (i.e., Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and Parabolic Mild-Slope Wave Module (MIKE 21 PMS) to reconstruct data for a storm surge hazard assessment of the levee at Weifang (China). LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were also used to obtain 3D point cloud data and the structure of the levee. The designed levee height was calculated based on the simulations and 3D point cloud data, and the results were compared with measured heights to evaluate whether the levee is sufficiently high to satisfy the safety requirement. The findings of this work will enhance the marine disaster prevention capacity of the region and could help reduce economic losses associated with marine-related disasters. The results could also provide support for future work on disaster prevention in the field of coastal marine engineering.

Restitution and adaptation measurements for the estimate of short-term cardiac action potential memory: comparison of five human ventricular models

EP Europace ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 1594-1602
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Zaniboni ◽  
Francesca Cacciani
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Action Potential ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Computational Study ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Cardiac Action Potential ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Cardiac Action

Abstract Aims This computational study refines our recently published pacing protocol to measure short-term memory (STM) of cardiac action potential (AP), and apply it to five numerical models of human ventricular AP. Methods and results Several formulations of electrical restitution (ER) have been provided over the years, including standard, beat-to-beat, dynamic, steady-state, which make it difficult to compare results from different studies. We discuss here the notion of dynamic ER (dER) by relating it to its steady-state counterpart, and propose a pacing protocol based on dER to measure STM under periodically varying pacing cycle length (CL). Under high and highly variable-pacing rate, all models develop STM, which can be measured over the entire sequence by means of dER. Short-term memory can also be measured on a beat-to-beat basis by estimating action potential duration (APD) adaptation after clamping CL constant. We visualize STM as a phase shift between action potential (AP) parameters over consecutive cycles of CL oscillations, and show that delay between CL and APD oscillation is nearly constant (around 92 ms) in the five models, despite variability in their intrinsic AP properties. Conclusion dER, as we define it and together with other approaches described in the study, provides an univocal way to measure STM under extreme cardiac pacing conditions. Given the relevance of AP memory for repolarization dynamics and stability, STM should be considered, among other usual biomarkers, to validate and tune cardiac AP models. The possibility of extending the method to in vivo cellular and whole organ models can also be profitably explored.

scholarly journals A Short-Term Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasting System for Wind Power Applications

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (10) ◽  
pp. 1763-1774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Traiteur ◽  
David J. Callicutt ◽  
Maxwell Smith ◽  
Somnath Baidya Roy
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Environmental Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System

AbstractThis study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 h ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model and persistence, autoregressive, and autoregressive moving-average models. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 6-month period (January–June 2006) at a potential wind-farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian model averaging technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for the July 2006–December 2007 period at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble as well the time series models under all environmental stability conditions. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 min. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

scholarly journals FLOW COMPUTATIONS NEARBY A STORM SURGE BARRIER UNDER CONSTRUCTION WITH TWO-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS

1986 ◽  
Vol 1 (20) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
H.E. Klatter ◽  
J.M.C. Dijkzeul ◽  
G. Hartsuiker ◽  
L. Bijlsma
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Model ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Energy Losses ◽  
Local Energy ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Physical Scale

This paper discusses the application of two-dimensional tidal models to the hydraulic research for the storm surge barrier in the Eastern Scheldt in the Netherlands. At the site of the barrier local energy losses dominate the flow. Three methods are discussed for dealing with these energy losses in a numerical model based on the long wave equations. The construction of the storm surge barrier provided extensive field data for various phases of the construction of the barrier and these field data are used as a test case for the computation at methods developed. One method is preferred since it gives good agreement between computations and field data. The two-dimensional flow patterns, the discharge and the head-difference agree well,, The results of scale model tests were also available for comparison. This comparison demonstrated that depth-averaged velocities, computed by a two-dimensional numerical model, are as accurate as values obtained from a large physical scale model. Even compicated flow patterns with local energy losses and sharp velocity gradients compared well.

Analysis and Numerical Simulation of the Mechanical Performance of FDM Samples With Variable Infill Values

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffany N. Cerda-Avila ◽  
Hugo I. Medellín-Castillo ◽  
Dirk F. de Lange
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Mechanical Performance ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Tensile Tests ◽  
Geometrical Shape ◽  
Cad System ◽  
Fem Method

The prediction of the mechanical properties of AM parts is very important in order to design and fabricate parts not only of any geometrical shape but also with variable or customized mechanical properties. A limited number of investigations have focused on the analysis and prediction of the mechanical properties of AM parts using theoretical and numerical approaches such as the Finite Element Method (FEM); nevertheless, their results have been not accurate yet. Thus, more research work is needed in order to develop reliable prediction models able to estimate the mechanical performance of AM parts before fabrication. In this paper the analysis and numerical simulation of the mechanical performance of FDM samples with variable infill values is presented. The aim is to predict the mechanical performance of FDM components using numerical models. Thus, several standard tensile test specimens were fabricated in an FDM system using different infill values, a constant layer thickness, one shell perimeter, and PLA material. These samples were measured and modelled in a CAD system before performing the experimental tensile tests. Numerical models and simulations based on the FEM method were then developed and carried out in order to predict the structural performance of the specimens. Finally the experimental and numerical results were compared and conclusions drawn.

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