scholarly journals Predictive model of unfavorable outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Henrique Arroyo ◽  
Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos ◽  
Mellina Yamamura ◽  
Thais Zamboni Berra ◽  
Luana Seles Alves ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the temporal trend, identify the factors related and elaborate a predictive model for unfavorable treatment outcomes for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study with all cases diagnosed with MDR-TB between the years 2006 and 2015 in the state of São Paulo. The data were collected from the state system of TB cases notifications (TB-WEB). The temporal trend analyzes of treatment outcomes was performed through the Prais-Winsten analysis. In order to verify the factors related to the unfavorable outcomes, abandonment, death with basic cause TB and treatment failure, the binary logistic regression was used. Pictorial representations of the factors related to treatment outcome and their prognostic capacity through the nomogram were elaborated. RESULTS: Both abandonment and death have a constant temporal tendency, whereas the failure showed it as decreasing. Regarding the risk factors for such outcomes, using illicit drugs doubled the odds for abandonment and death. Besides that, being diagnosed in emergency units or during hospitalizations was a risk factor for death. On the contrary, having previous multidrug-resistant treatments reduced the odds for the analyzed outcomes by 33%. The nomogram presented a predictive model with 65% accuracy for dropouts, 70% for deaths and 80% for failure. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of the current model of care is an essential factor for the prevention of unfavorable outcomes. Through predictive models, as presented in this study, it is possible to develop patient-centered actions, considering their risk factors and increasing the chances for cure.

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-239
Author(s):  
S. Park ◽  
K-W. Jo ◽  
T. S. Shim

BACKGROUND: Pyrazinamide (PZA) is an important anti-tuberculosis drug for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). However, PZA has recently been demoted within the hierarchy of TB drugs used for MDR-TB.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to investigate treatment outcomes for simple MDR-TB (susceptible to both second-line injectable drugs and fluoroquinolones) according to PZA susceptibility.RESULTS: Among 216 pulmonary MDR-TB patients included in the study, 68 (31.5%) were PZA-resistant (PZA-R). The mean age was 41.8 years, and 63.4% were male. Baseline characteristics such as comorbidity, previous TB history, acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear positivity and cavitation were similar in PZA-susceptible (PZA-S) and PZA-R patients. The number of potentially effective drugs was slightly higher among PZA-S patients than among the PZA-R (5.1 vs. 4.8, respectively; P = 0.003). PZA was more frequently used in PZA-S patients (73.0%) than in the PZA-R (14.7%), while para-aminosalicylic acid was more frequently used in PZA-R than in PZA-S patients (76.5% vs. 50.7%). The treatment success rate was similar in PZA-S (77.7%) and PZA-R (75.0%) patients. PZA resistance was not associated with treatment success in multivariate analysis.CONCLUSIONS: PZA-resistant simple MDR-TB patients had the same treatment success rate as the PZA-susceptible group even without using novel anti-TB drugs.


2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. e00744-20
Author(s):  
Martha L. van der Walt ◽  
Karen Shean ◽  
Piet Becker ◽  
Karen H. Keddy ◽  
Joey Lancaster

ABSTRACTTreatment outcomes among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients receiving ethambutol, cycloserine, or terizidone as part of a standardized regimen were compared, determining occurrence of serious adverse drug events (SADEs). Newly diagnosed adult MDR-TB patients were enrolled between 2000 and 2004, receiving a standardized multidrug regimen for 18 to 24 months, including ethambutol, cycloserine, or terizidone. Cycloserine and terizidone were recorded individually. SADEs and factors associated with culture conversion and unfavorable treatment outcomes (default, death, treatment failure) were determined. Of 858 patients, 435 (51%) received ethambutol, 278 (32%) received cycloserine, and 145 (17%) received terizidone. Demographic and baseline clinical data were comparable. Successful treatment occurred in 56%, significantly more in patients receiving cycloserine (60%) and terizidone (62%) than in those receiving ethambutol (52% [P = 0.03]). Defaults rates were 30% in ethambutol patients versus 15% and 11% for cycloserine and terizidone patients, respectively. Terizidone was associated with fewer unfavorable outcomes (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.4; P = 0.008; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.8). Patients receiving cycloserine were more likely to achieve culture conversion than those receiving ethambutol or terizidone (AOR, 2.2; P = 0.02; 95% CI, 1.12 to 4.38). Failure to convert increased the odds of unfavorable outcomes (AOR, 23.7; P < 0.001; 95% CI, 13 to 44). SADEs were reported in two patients receiving ethambutol, seven patients receiving cycloserine, and three receiving terizidone (P = 0.05). Ethambutol was associated with high culture conversion and default rates. Cycloserine achieved higher culture conversion rates than terizidone. Fewer patients on terizidone experienced SADEs, with lower default rates. The differences that we observed between cycloserine and terizidone require further elucidation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Chen ◽  
R. Miramontes ◽  
J. S. Kammerer

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk factors for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and describe MDR-TB according to three characteristics: previous TB disease, recent transmission of MDR-TB, and reactivation of latent MDR-TB infection.SETTING and DESIGN: We used 2011–2016 surveillance data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and National Tuberculosis Genotyping Service and used logistic regression models to estimate risk factors associated with MDR-TB.RESULTS: A total of 615/45 209 (1.4%) cases were confirmed as MDR-TB; 111/615 (18%) reported previous TB disease; 41/615 (6.7%) were attributed to recent MDR-TB transmission; and 449/615 (73%) to reactivation. Only 12/41 (29%) patients with TB attributed to recent transmission were known to be contacts of someone with MDR-TB. For non-US-born patients, the adjusted odds ratios of having MDR-TB were 32.6 (95%CI 14.6–72.6) among those who were known to be contacts of someone with MDR-TB and 6.5 (95%CI 5.1–8.3) among those who had had previous TB disease.CONCLUSION: The majority of MDR-TB cases in the United States were associated with previous TB disease or reactivation of latent MDR-TB infection; only a small proportion of MDR-TB cases were associated with recent transmission.


2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 1600803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mayara Lisboa Bastos ◽  
Zhiyi Lan ◽  
Dick Menzies

This systematic review aimed to update the current evidence for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment.We searched for studies that reported treatment information and clinical characteristics for at least 25 patients with microbiologically confirmed pulmonary MDR-TB and either end of treatment outcomes, 6-month culture conversion or severe adverse events (SAEs). We assessed the association of these outcomes with patients' characteristics or treatment parameters. We identified 74 studies, including 17 494 participants.The pooled treatment success was 26% in extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) patients and 60% in MDR-TB patients. Treatment parameters such as number or duration and individual drugs were not associated with improved 6-month sputum culture conversion or end of treatment outcomes. However, MDR-TB patients that received individualised regimens had higher success than patients who received standardised regimens (64% versus 52%; p<0.0.01). When reports from 20 cohorts were pooled, proportions of SAE ranged from 0.5% attributed to ethambutol to 12.2% attributed to para-aminosalicylic acid. The lack of significant associations of treatment outcomes with specific drugs or regimens may reflect the limitations of pooling the data rather than a true lack of differences in efficacy of regimens or individual drugs.This analysis highlights the need for stronger evidence for treatment of MDR-TB from better-designed and reported studies.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Hong Van ◽  
Phan Trieu Phu ◽  
Dao Nguyen Vinh ◽  
Vo Thanh Son ◽  
Nguyen Thi Hanh ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a serious public health problem with poor treatment outcome. Predictors of poor outcomes vary in different regions. Vietnam is among the 30 countries with high burden of MDR-TB. We aim to describe demographic characteristics and identify risk factors for poor outcome of MDR-TB in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the most populous city in Vietnam. Methods: This retrospective study included 2,266 patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment from 2011 to 2015 in HCMC. Treatment outcomes were available in 2,240 patients. Data was collected from standardized paper-based treatment cards and electronic records. Kruskal Wallis test was used to diagnose the change of median of age and body mass index (BMI) over 5 years, and Wilcoxon test to compare median BMI of patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Chi squared test was used to compare categorical variables. Multivariate logistic regression on multiple imputation was used to identify risk factors for poor outcomes. Statistical analysis was performed using R program. Results: Among 2,266 eligible cases, 60.2% were failure of category I or II regimen, 57.7% were underweight, 30.2% had diabetes mellitus and 9.6% were HIV positive. Notification rate increased 24.7% from 2011 to 2015.Treatment success rate was 73.3%. Risk factors for poor treatment outcome included HIV co-infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.94), advanced age (aOR: 1.45 for every increase of 5 years for patients 60 years or older), having history of MDR-TB treatment (aOR: 5.53), sputum smear grade scanty and 1+ (aOR: 1.47), smear grade 2+ or 3+ (aOR: 2.06), low BMI (aOR: 0.83 for every increase of 1kg/m2 of BMI for patients with BMI<21). Conclusion: Our study describes the increasing cases of MDR-TB in HCMC during 2011 to 2015. Patients with HIV, high smear grade, malnutrition and history of previous MDR-TB treatment should receive additional care. Keywords: multidrug resistant tuberculosis; retrospective; treatment outcome; risk factors; Vietnam


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud Iradukunda ◽  
Gabin-Pacifique Ndayishimiye ◽  
Darlene Sinarinzi ◽  
Emmanuel Nene Odjidja ◽  
Nestor Ntakaburimvo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Despite the World Health Organization efforts to expand access to the tuberculosis treatment, multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a major threat. MDR-TB represents a challenge for clinicians and staff operating in national tuberculosis (TB) programmes/centres. In sub-Saharan African countries including Burundi, MDR-TB coexists with high burden of other communicable and non-communicable diseases, creating a complex public health situation which is difficult to address. Tackling this will require targeted public health intervention based on evidence which well defines the at-risk population. In this study, using data from two referral anti-tuberculosis in Burundi, we model the key factors associated with MDR-TB in Burundi. Methods A case-control study was conducted from 1stAugust 2019 to 15th January 2020 in Kibumbu Sanatorium and Bujumbura anti-tuberculosis centres for cases and controls respectively. In all, 180 TB patients were selected, comprising of 60 cases and 120 controls using incidence density selection method. The associated factors were carried out by mixed effect logistic regression. Model performance was assessed by the Area under Curve (AUC). Model was internally validated via bootstrapping with 2000 replications. All analysis were done using R Statistical 3.5.0. Results MDR-TB was more identified among patients who lived in rural areas (51.3%), in patients’ residence (69.2%) and among those with a household size of six or more family members (59.5%). Most of the MDR-TB cases had already been under TB treatment (86.4%), had previous contact with an MDR-TR case (85.0%), consumed tobacco (55.5%) and were diabetic (66.6 %). HIV prevalence was 32.3 % in controls and 67.7 % among cases. After modelling using mixed effects, Residence of patients (aOR= 1.31, 95%C: 1.12-1.80), living in houses with more than 6 family members (aOR= 4.15, 95% C: 3.06-5.39), previous close contact with MDR-TB (aOR= 6.03, 95% C: 4.01-8.12), history of TB treatment (aOR= 2.16, 95% C: 1.06-3.42), tobacco consumption (aOR = 3.17 ,95% C: 2.06-5.45) and underlying diabetes’ ( aOR= 4.09,95% CI = 2.01-16.79) were significantly associated with MDR-TB. With 2000 stratified bootstrap replicates, the model had an excellent predictive performance, accurately predicting 88.15% (95% C: 82.06%-92.8%) of all observations. The coexistence of risk factors to the same patients increases the risk of MDR-TB occurrence. TB patients with no any risk factors had 17.6% of risk to become MDR-TB. That probability was respectively three times and five times higher among diabetic and close contact MDR-TB patients. Conclusion The relatively high TB’s prevalence and MDR-TB occurrence in Burundi raises a cause for concern especially in this context where there exist an equally high burden of chronic diseases including malnutrition. Targeting interventions based on these identified risk factors will allow judicious channel of resources and effective public health planning.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Hong Van ◽  
Phan Trieu Phu ◽  
Dao Nguyen Vinh ◽  
Vo Thanh Son ◽  
Nguyen Thi Hanh ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a serious public health problem with poor treatment outcomes. Predictors of poor outcomes vary in different regions. Vietnam is among the top 30 high burden of MDR-TB countries. We describe demographic characteristics and identify risk factors for poor outcome among patients with MDR-TB in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the most populous city in Vietnam.Methods: This retrospective study included 2,266 patients who initiated MDR-TB treatment between 2011-2015 in HCMC. Treatment outcomes were available for 2,240 patients. Data was collected from standardized paper-based treatment cards and electronic records. A Kruskal Wallis test was used to assess changes in median age and body mass index (BMI) over time, and a Wilcoxon test was used to compare the median BMI of patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Chi squared test was used to compare categorical variables. Multivariate logistic regression with multiple imputation for missing data was used to identify risk factors for poor outcomes. Statistical analysis was performed using R program.Results: Among 2,266 eligible cases, 60.2% had failed on a category I or II treatment regimen, 57.7% were underweight, 30.2% had diabetes mellitus and 9.6% were HIV positive. The notification rate increased 24.7% from 2011-2015. The treatment success rate was 73.3%. Risk factors for poor treatment outcome included HIV co-infection (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.94), advanced age (aOR: 1.45 for every increase of 5 years for patients 60 years or older), having history of MDR-TB treatment (aOR: 5.53), sputum smear grade scanty or 1+ (aOR: 1.47), smear grade 2+ or 3+ (aOR: 2.06), low BMI (aOR: 0.83 for every increase of 1kg/m2 of BMI for patients with BMI<21).Conclusion: The number of patients diagnosed with MDR-TB in HCMC increased by almost a quarter between 2011-2015. Patients with HIV, high smear grade, malnutrition or a history of previous MDR-TB treatment are at greatest risk of poor treatment outcome.


2019 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. e2019014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adel Hussein Elduma ◽  
Mohammad Ali Mansournia ◽  
Abbas Rahimi Foroushani ◽  
Hamdan Mustafa Hamdan Ali ◽  
Asrar M A Salam Elegail ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVES: The emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major challenge for the global control of tuberculosis (TB). The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with MDR-TB in Sudan.METHODS: This case-control study was conducted from May 2017 to February 2019. Patients newly diagnosed with MDR-TB were selected as cases, and controls were selected from TB patients who responded to first-line anti-TB drugs. A questionnaire was designed and used to collect data from study participants. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between risk factors and MDR-TB infection. The best multivariate model was selected based on the likelihood ratio test.RESULTS: A total of 430 cases and 860 controls were selected for this study. A history of previous TB treatment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 54.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 30.48 to 98.69) was strongly associated with MDR-TB infection. We identified interruption of TB treatment (aOR, 7.62; 95% CI, 3.16 to 18.34), contact with MDR-TB patients (aOR, 5.40; 95% CI, 2.69 to 10.74), lower body weight (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.91), and water pipe smoking (aOR, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.73 to 6.04) as factors associated with MDR-TB infection.CONCLUSIONS: Previous TB treatment and interruption of TB treatment were found to be the main predictors of MDR-TB. Additionally, this study found that contact with MDR-TB patients and water pipe smoking were associated with MDR-TB infection in Sudan. More efforts are required to decrease the rate of treatment interruption, to strengthen patients’ adherence to treatment, and to reduce contact with MDR-TB patients.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0255357
Author(s):  
Nguyen Bao Ngoc ◽  
Hoa Vu Dinh ◽  
Nguyen Thi Thuy ◽  
Duong Van Quang ◽  
Cao Thi Thu Huyen ◽  
...  

Objective Management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a significant challenge to the global healthcare system due to the complexity and long duration of the MDR-TB treatment. This study analyzed the safety of patients on longer injectable-based MDR-TB treatment regimens using active pharmacovigilance data. Method We conducted an observational, prospective study based on active pharmacovigilance within the national TB program. A total of 659 MDR-TB patients were enrolled and followed up at 9 TB- hospitals in 9 provinces of all 3 regions in Vietnam between 2014 and 2016. Patients received a treatment regimen (standardized or individualized) based on their drug susceptibility test result and their treatment history. Baseline and follow-up information was collected at the start and during treatment. Adverse events (AE) were defined and classified as serious adverse events (SAEs) or otherwise. Multivariate Cox regression following the Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm was performed to identify factors associated with AE occurrence. Results Out of 659 patients assessed, 71.3% experienced at least one AE, and 17.5% suffered at least one SAE. The most common AEs were gastrointestinal disorders (38.5%), arthralgia (34.7%), and psychiatric disorders (30.0%). The proportion of patients with nephrotoxicity and hearing loss or vestibular disorders were 7.4% and 15.2%, respectively. 13.1% of patients required modifications or interruption of one or more drugs. In 77.7% of patients, treatment was completed successfully, while 9.3% lost to follow-up, in 3.0% treatment failed, and 7.4% died. Some significant risk factors for nephrotoxicity included diabetes mellitus (HR = 8.46 [1.91–37.42]), renal dysfunction (HR = 8.46 [1.91–37.42]), alcoholism (HR = 13.28 [5.04–34.99]), and a higher average daily dose of injectable drugs (HR = 1.28 [1.14–1.43]). Conclusion While a majority of patients on the longer injectable-based regimens experienced non-serious AEs during MDR-TB treatment, one in six patients experienced at least an SAE. Active TB drug-safety monitoring is useful to understand the safety of MDR-TB treatment and explore the risk factors for toxicity. All-oral, shorter MDR-TB regimens might be able to reduce the inconvenience, discomfort, and toxicity of such regimens and increase adherence and likelihood of successful completion.


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