Abstract 15941: Derivation of Risk-Scores That Stratify Risk of Hospitalization and Death in SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirk U Knowlton ◽  
Heidi T May ◽  
Stacey Knight ◽  
Tami L Bair ◽  
Viet T Le ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Variable Intensity ◽  
Intermountain Healthcare ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
Demographic Risk Factor

Introduction: It is well-documented that COVID-19 patients with pre-existing cardiovascular-related disorders are at higher risk of a complicated course. It would be valuable to integrate individual risk factors into overall risk scores for hospitalization and death from COVID-19. Methods: The Intermountain Healthcare medical record database was searched for all individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection up to June 8, 2020. Data from test-positive patients (pts) was analyzed to determine the characteristics of pts requiring hospitalization. From these data, 2 risk scores for hospitalization were derived using multi-variable modeling: of only demographic and risk-factor data, or also including concurrent medications. The risk scores were also applied to predict the risk of dying from COVID-19. Results: Of 104,018 people tested at Intermountain Healthcare for SARS-CoV-2, 5505 (5.3%) were positive. Of test-positive pts, 451 (8.2%) were hospitalized, and 37 (0.7%) died. Using a demographic/risk factor only score, 1.4, 7.0, and 36.6% of low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, respectively, were hospitalized (AUC=0.826). Using demographic risk-factors and medications, 1.4, 5.6, and 40.3% of low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients were hospitalized (AUC=0.854, Table 1). The demographic/risk factor-score was also predictive of the risk of dying, with 0%, 0.9% and 4.5% in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups dying (AUC=0.918). Adding medications to the risk-factors model further improved the prediction of death with 0.1, 0.04, and 4.9% in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups dying (AUC=0.942, Table 2). Conclusions: We demonstrate the derivation of highly predictive risk scores for COVD-19 patients at low, moderate, and high risks of hospitalization or death. Pending appropriate validation in another cohort, application of these risk-scores may allow healthcare systems to risk-stratify COVID-19 patients requiring variable intensity of care.

scholarly journals The Effect of Ethnicity on Preterm Birth and its Influence on the Risk Factors for Prematurity

2019 ◽  
pp. 180-192
Author(s):  
P Bachkangi ◽  
AH Taylor ◽  
JC Konje
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Preterm Birth ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Individual Risk Factor ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Gestational Age At Delivery ◽  
Very High

Preterm birth (PTB) affects 9.6% of pregnancies worldwide and is associated with a very high perinatal mortality that depends on the gestational age at delivery. As a result, PTB has a significant health and financial impact on health systems, families and societies. Its aetiology is not fully understood, but in most cases it is multifactorial, with several maternal, paternal, and epidemiological factors associated with increased risk. Other factors include parental ethnicity, maternal age and body mass index, socioeconomic status, and where the families live. This review examines the influence of ethnicity as an individual risk factor for PTB. It also explores its influence on the epidemiology of PTB and demonstrates that data on certain ethnicities are lacking, despite the fact that these ethnic clusters are within the very ‘high-risk groups’ that are adequately represented in some Western societies. This review examines the influence of ethnicity as an individual risk factor for PTB and also explores its influence on the different epidemiological aspects. A thorough revisit of the ethnic epidemiology unveiled other unnoticed risk factors that if addressed appropriately prematurity can be prevented. Moreover, certain ethnicities were not within the attention of researchers, despite the facts that they are very ‘high-risk groups’ and are also adequately represented in some Western societies.

Abstract TP238: Encephalopathy Only Stroke Codes (EoSC) Do Not Result in rt-PA Treatments

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Chen ◽  
Dawn Meyer ◽  
Brett Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Thrombolytic Treatment ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
History Of ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Demographic Risk Factor

Background: Isolated mental status changes as presenting sign (EoSC+), are not uncommon stroke code triggers. As stroke alerts, they still require the same intensive resources be applied. We previously showed that EoSC+ strokes (EoSC+CVA+) account for 8-9% of EoSC+ codes but only 0.1-0.2% of all codes. Whether these result in thrombolytic treatment (rt-PA), and the characteristics/ risk factor profiles of EoSC+CVA+ patients, have not been reported. Methods: Retrospective analysis of stroke codes from an IRB approved registry, from 2004 to 2018, was performed. EoSC+ definition used was consistent with prior publications (NIHSS>0 for Q1a, 1b, or 1c with remaining elements scored 0). Other definitions were also assessed. Characteristics and risk factors were compared for EoSC+, EoSC+CVA+, and rt-PA (EoSC+ CVA+TPA+) patients. Results: EoSC+ occurred in 59/2982 (1.98%) of all stroke codes. EoSC+CVA+ occurred in 8/59 (13.56%) of EoSC+ codes and 8/2982 (0.27%) of all stroke codes. 6/8 (75%) of EoSC+CVA+ scored NIHSS=1. Hispanic ethnicity (p=0.009), HTN (p=0.02), and history of stroke/TIA (p=0.002) were less common in EoSC+. No demographic/ risk factor differences were noted for [EoSC+CVA+ vs. EoSC+CVA-]. No cases of rt-PA eligibility/ treatment were noted. In EoSC+CVA+ analysis, imaging positive stroke/intracranial hemorrhage was noted on only 3 cases (3/2982=0.10% of all stroke codes) and none were posterior stroke. Conclusions: EoSC+ is not an uncommon reason to activate stroke codes, but rarely results in stroke/TIA (0.27%) or stroke (0.10%), and in our analysis never (0%) resulted in rt-PA. Sub-analysis did not show missed rt-PA or posterior strokes. This adds information for application of limited acute stroke code resources. Though stroke codes must still to be activated, understanding characteristics, and knowing that EoSC+CVA+ patients are unlikely to receive rt-PA, may help triage stroke resources. Further investigation is warranted.

scholarly journals Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J. Chow ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Melissa M. Hudson ◽  
Elizabeth A.M. Feijen ◽  
Leontien C. Kremer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Ischemic Heart Disease ◽  
Childhood Cancer ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Ischemic Heart ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Survivors Of Childhood Cancer

Purpose We aimed to predict individual risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke in 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Patients and Methods Participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS; n = 13,060) were observed through age 50 years for the development of ischemic heart disease and stroke. Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. Piecewise exponential models with backward selection estimated the relationships between potential predictors and each outcome. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (n = 1,842) and the Emma Children’s Hospital cohort (n = 1,362) were used to validate the CCSS models. Results Ischemic heart disease and stroke occurred in 265 and 295 CCSS participants, respectively. Risk scores based on a standard prediction model that included sex, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (cranial, neck, and chest) exposures achieved an area under the curve and concordance statistic of 0.70 and 0.70 for ischemic heart disease and 0.63 and 0.66 for stroke, respectively. Validation cohort area under the curve and concordance statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.67 for ischemic heart disease and 0.68 to 0.72 for stroke. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative incidences at age 50 years among CCSS low-risk groups were < 5%, compared with approximately 20% for high-risk groups ( P < .001); cumulative incidence was only 1% for siblings ( P < .001 v low-risk survivors). Conclusion Information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy can predict individual risk for subsequent ischemic heart disease and stroke with reasonable accuracy and discrimination through age 50 years. These models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions.

scholarly journals Recurrence risk stratification based on a competing-risks nomogram to identify patients with esophageal cancer who may benefit from postoperative radiotherapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 175883592110619
Author(s):  
Xiao Chang ◽  
Junqiang Chen ◽  
Wencheng Zhang ◽  
Jinsong Yang ◽  
Shufei Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Postoperative Radiotherapy ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Background: A reliable model is needed to estimate the risk of postoperative recurrence and the benefits of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) in patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell cancer (TESCC). Methods: The study retrospectively reviewed 3652 TESCC patients in stage IB-IVA after radical esophagectomy, with or without PORT. In one institution as the training cohort ( n = 1620), independent risk factors associated with locoregional recurrence (LRR), identified by the competing-risks regression, were used to establish a predicting nomogram, which was validated in an external cohort ( n = 1048). Area under curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to evaluate discrimination. Risk stratification was conducted using a decision tree analysis based on the cumulative point score of the LRR nomogram. After balancing the baseline of characteristics between treatment groups by inverse probability of treatment weighting, the effect of PORT was evaluated in each risk group. Results: Sex, age, tumor location, tumor grade, and N category were identified as independent risk factors for LRR and added into the nomogram. The AUC values were 0.638 and 0.706 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Three risk groups were established. For patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups, PORT significantly improved the 5-year overall survival by 10.2% and 9.4%, respectively ( p < 0.05). Although PORT was significantly associated with reduced LRR in the low-risk group, overall survival was not improved. Conclusion: The nomogram can effectively estimate the individual risk of LRR, and patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups are highly recommended to undergo PORT.

scholarly journals Proposal for the use of echocardiography in bloodstream infections due to different streptococcal species

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Chamat-Hedemand ◽  
Niels Eske Bruun ◽  
Lauge Østergaard ◽  
Magnus Arpi ◽  
Emil Fosbøl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Blood Culture ◽  
Positive Blood Culture ◽  
Bloodstream Infections ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Streptococcal Species ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Infective endocarditis (IE) is diagnosed in 7–8% of streptococcal bloodstream infections (BSIs), yet it is unclear when to perform transthoracic (TTE) and transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) according to different streptococcal species. The aim of this sub-study was to propose a flowchart for the use of echocardiography in streptococcal BSIs. Methods In a population-based setup, we investigated all patients admitted with streptococcal BSIs and crosslinked data with nationwide registries to identify comorbidities and concomitant hospitalization with IE. Streptococcal species were divided in four groups based on the crude risk of being diagnosed with IE (low-risk < 3%, moderate-risk 3–10%, high-risk 10–30% and very high-risk > 30%). Based on number of positive blood culture (BC) bottles and IE risk factors (prosthetic valve, previous IE, native valve disease, and cardiac device), we further stratified cases according to probability of concomitant IE diagnosis to create a flowchart suggesting TTE plus TOE (IE > 10%), TTE (IE 3–10%), or “wait & see” (IE < 3%). Results We included 6393 cases with streptococcal BSIs (mean age 68.1 years [SD 16.2], 52.8% men). BSIs with low-risk streptococci (S. pneumoniae, S. pyogenes, S. intermedius) are not initially recommended echocardiography, unless they have ≥3 positive BC bottles and an IE risk factor. Moderate-risk streptococci (S. agalactiae, S. anginosus, S. constellatus, S. dysgalactiae, S. salivarius, S. thermophilus) are guided to “wait & see” strategy if they neither have a risk factor nor ≥3 positive BC bottles, while a TTE is recommended if they have either ≥3 positive BC bottles or a risk factor. Further, a TTE and TOE are recommended if they present with both. High-risk streptococci (S. mitis/oralis, S. parasanguinis, G. adiacens) are directed to a TTE if they neither have a risk factor nor ≥3 positive BC bottles, but to TTE and TOE if they have either ≥3 positive BC bottles or a risk factor. Very high-risk streptococci (S. gordonii, S. gallolyticus, S. mutans, S. sanguinis) are guided directly to TTE and TOE due to a high baseline IE prevalence. Conclusion In addition to the clinical picture, this flowchart based on streptococcal species, number of positive blood culture bottles, and risk factors, can help guide the use of echocardiography in streptococcal bloodstream infections. Since echocardiography results are not available the findings should be confirmed prospectively with the use of systematic echocardiography.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk factors during cancer treatment: prevalence, incidence and prognostic relevance

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Caro Codon ◽  
T Lopez-Fernandez ◽  
C Alvarez-Ortega ◽  
P Zamora Aunon ◽  
I Rodriguez Rodriguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cancer Therapy ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Background The actual usefulness of CV risk factor assessment in the prognostic evaluation of cancer patients treated with cardiotoxic treatment remains largely unknown. Design Prospective multicenter study in patients scheduled to receive anticancer therapy related with moderate/high cardiotoxic risk. Methods A total of 1324 patients underwent follow-up in a dedicated cardio-oncology clinic from April 2012 to October 2017. Special care was given to the identification and control of CV risk factors. Clinical data, blood samples and echocardiographic parameters were prospectively collected according to protocol, at baseline before cancer therapy and then at 3 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 1.5 years and 2 years after initiation of cancer therapy. Results At baseline, 893 patients (67.4%) presented at least 1 risk factor, with a significant number of patients newly diagnosed during follow-up. Individual risk factors were not related with worse prognosis during a 2-year follow-up. However, a higher Systemic Coronary Risk Estimation (SCORE) was significantly associated with higher rates of severe cardiotoxicity and all-cause mortality [HR 1.79 (95% CI 1.16–2.76) for SCORE 5–9 and HR 4.90 (95% CI 2.44–9.82) for SCORE ≥10 when compared with patients with lower SCORE (0–4)]. Conclusions This large cohort of patients treated with a potentially cardiotoxic regimen showed a significant prevalence of CV risk factors at baseline and significant incidence during follow-up. Baseline cardiovascular risk assessment using SCORE predicted severe cardiotoxicity and all-cause mortality. Therefore, its use should be recommended in the evaluation of cancer patients. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): This study was partially funded by the Fondo Investigaciones Sanitarias (Spain), Centro de Investigaciόn Biomédica en Red Cardiovascular CIBER-CV (Spain)

An absolute risk-guided approach to cardiovascular risk management within a chest pain clinic: the ARCPAC randomized trial

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.A Black ◽  
J Campbell ◽  
J Sharman ◽  
M Nelson ◽  
S Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Pain Clinic ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor Management

Abstract Background The majority of patients attending chest pain clinics are found not to have a cardiac cause of their symptoms, but have a high burden of cardiovascular risk factors that may be opportunistically addressed. Absolute risk calculators are recommended to guide risk factor management, although it is uncertain to what extent these calculations may assist with patient engagement in risk factor modification. Purpose We sought to determine the usefulness of a proactive, absolute risk-based approach, to guide opportunistic cardiovascular risk factor management within a chest pain clinic. Methods This was a prospective, open-label, blinded-endpoint study in 192 enhanced risk (estimated 5-year risk ≥8%, based on Australian Absolute Risk Calculator) patients presenting to a tertiary hospital chest pain clinic. Patients were randomized to best practice usual care, or intervention with development of a proactive cardiovascular risk management strategy framed around a discussion of the individual's absolute risk. Patients found to have a cardiac cause of symptoms were excluded as they constitute a secondary prevention population. Primary outcome was 5-year absolute cardiovascular risk score at minimum 12 months follow up. Secondary outcomes were individual modifiable risk factors (lipid profile, blood pressure, smoking status). Results 192 people entered the study; 100 in the intervention arm and 92 in usual care. There was no statistical difference between the two groups' baseline sociodemographic and clinical variables. The intervention group showed greater reduction in 5-year absolute risk scores (difference −2.77; p&lt;0.001), and more favourable individual risk factors, although only smoking status and LDL cholesterol reached statistical significance (table). Conclusion An absolute risk-guided proactive risk factor management strategy employed opportunistically in a chest pain clinic significantly improves 5-year cardiovascular risk scores. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Tasmanian Community Fund

scholarly journals Intensive Multiagent Therapy, Including Dose-Compressed Cycles of Ifosfamide/Etoposide and Vincristine/Doxorubicin/Cyclophosphamide, Irinotecan, and Radiation, in Patients With High-Risk Rhabdomyosarcoma: A Report From the Children's Oncology Group

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenda J. Weigel ◽  
Elizabeth Lyden ◽  
James R. Anderson ◽  
William H. Meyer ◽  
David M. Parham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Bone Marrow Involvement ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Historical Cohort ◽  
Dismal Prognosis ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Metastatic Sites

Purpose Patients with metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS), except those younger than 10 years with embryonal RMS, have an estimated long-term event-free survival (EFS) of less than 20%. The main goal of this study was to improve outcome of patients with metastatic RMS by dose intensification with interval compression, use of the most active agents determined in phase II window studies, and use of irinotecan as a radiation sensitizer. Patients and Methods Patients with metastatic RMS received 54 weeks of therapy: blocks of therapy with vincristine/irinotecan (weeks 1 to 6, 20 to 25, and 47 to 52), interval compression with vincristine/doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide alternating with etoposide/ifosfamide (weeks 7 to 19 and 26 to 34), and vincristine/dactinomycin/cyclophosphamide (weeks 38 to 46). Radiation therapy occurred at weeks 20 to 25 (primary) but was also permitted at weeks 1 to 6 (for intracranial or paraspinal extension) and weeks 47 to 52 (for extensive metastatic sites). Results One hundred nine eligible patients were enrolled, with a median follow-up of surviving patients of 3.8 years (3-year EFS for all patients, 38% [95% CI, 29% to 48%]; survival, 56% [95% CI, 46% to 66%]). Patients with one or no Oberlin risk factor (age > 10 years or < 1 year, unfavorable primary site of disease, ≥ three metastatic sites, and bone or bone marrow involvement) had a 3-year EFS of 69% (95% CI, 52% to 82%); high-risk patients with two or more risk factors had a 3-year EFS of 20% (95% CI, 11% to 30%). Toxicity was similar to that on prior RMS studies. Conclusion Patients with metastatic RMS with one or no Oberlin risk factor had an improved 3-year EFS of 69% on ARST0431 compared with an historical cohort from pooled European and US studies; those with two or more risk factors have a dismal prognosis, and new approaches are needed for this very-high-risk group.

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