The Role of Subtropical Irreversible PV Mixing in the Zonal Mean Circulation Response to Global Warming–Like Thermal Forcing

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 2297-2316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Lu ◽  
Lantao Sun ◽  
Yutian Wu ◽  
Gang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Mixing Efficiency ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Tropospheric Heating ◽  
Tropical Heating

Abstract The atmospheric circulation response to the global warming–like tropical upper tropospheric heating is revisited using a dry atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in light of new diagnostics based on the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) on equivalent latitude. For a given tropical heating profile, the linear Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) wave refraction analysis sometimes gives a very different and even opposite prediction of the eddy momentum flux response to that of the actual full model simulation, exposing the limitation of the traditional linear approach in understanding the full dynamics of the atmospheric response under global warming. The implementation of the FAWA diagnostics reveals that in response to the upper tropospheric heating, effective diffusivity—a measure of the mixing efficiency—increases and advances upward and poleward in the subtropics and the resultant enhancement and the poleward encroachment of eddy potential vorticity mixing leads to a poleward displaced potential vorticity (PV) gradient peak in the upper troposphere. The anomalous eddy PV flux, in balance with the PV dissipation, gives rise to a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet and eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that these irreversible dissipation processes in the upper troposphere are robust, regardless of the width of the tropical heating.

scholarly journals Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9125-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Continental Climate

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

scholarly journals Summertime precipitation in Hokkaido and Kyushu, Japan in response to global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daichi Takabatake ◽  
Masaru Inatsu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence

Abstract We analyzed a large ensemble dataset called the database for Policy Decision Making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which contains 60-km resolution atmospheric general circulation model output and 20-km resolution dynamical downscaling for the Japanese domain. The increase in moisture and precipitation, and their global warming response in June–July–August were described focusing on the differences between Hokkaido and Kyushu. The results suggested that the specific humidity increased almost following the Clausius Clapeyron relation, but the change in stationary circulation suppressed the precipitation increase, except for in western Kyushu. The + 4 K climate in Hokkaido would be as hot and humid as the present climate in Kyushu. The circulation change related to the southward shift of the jet stream and an eastward shift of the Bonin high weakened the moisture flux convergence via a stationary field over central Japan including eastern Kyushu. The transient eddy activity counteracted the increase in humidity, so that the moisture flux convergence and precipitation did not change much over Hokkaido. Because the contribution of tropical cyclones to the total precipitation was at most 10%, the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones did not explain the predicted change in precipitation.

scholarly journals A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function Method to Construct Nitrate Maps in the Southern Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1505-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Chiao Liang ◽  
Matthew R. Mazloff ◽  
Isabella Rosso ◽  
Shih-Wei Fang ◽  
Jin-Yi Yu
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Cluster Method ◽  
Sampling Strategies ◽  
Data Sampling ◽  
Mean Square Errors

AbstractThe ability to construct nitrate maps in the Southern Ocean (SO) from sparse observations is important for marine biogeochemistry research, as it offers a geographical estimate of biological productivity. The goal of this study is to infer the skill of constructed SO nitrate maps using varying data sampling strategies. The mapping method uses multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOFs) constructed from nitrate, salinity, and potential temperature (N-S-T) fields from a biogeochemical general circulation model simulation Synthetic N-S-T datasets are created by sampling modeled N-S-T fields in specific regions, determined either by random selection or by selecting regions over a certain threshold of nitrate temporal variances. The first 500 MEOF modes, determined by their capability to reconstruct the original N-S-T fields, are projected onto these synthetic N-S-T data to construct time-varying nitrate maps. Normalized root-mean-square errors (NRMSEs) are calculated between the constructed nitrate maps and the original modeled fields for different sampling strategies. The sampling strategy according to nitrate variances is shown to yield maps with lower NRMSEs than mapping adopting random sampling. A k-means cluster method that considers the N-S-T combined variances to identify key regions to insert data is most effective in reducing the mapping errors. These findings are further quantified by a series of mapping error analyses that also address the significance of data sampling density. The results provide a sampling framework to prioritize the deployment of biogeochemical Argo floats for constructing nitrate maps.

scholarly journals Coherent Lagrangian swirls among submesoscale motions

2018 ◽  
Vol 116 (37) ◽  
pp. 18251-18256 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Beron-Vera ◽  
A. Hadjighasem ◽  
Q. Xia ◽  
M. J. Olascoaga ◽  
G. Haller
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Ocean General Circulation ◽  
Coherence Detection

The emergence of coherent Lagrangian swirls (CLSs) among submesoscale motions in the ocean is illustrated. This is done by applying recent nonlinear dynamics tools for Lagrangian coherence detection on a surface flow realization produced by a data-assimilative submesoscale-permitting ocean general circulation model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico. Both mesoscale and submesoscale CLSs are extracted. These extractions prove the relevance of coherent Lagrangian eddies detected in satellite-altimetry–based geostrophic flow data for the arguably more realistic ageostrophic multiscale flow.

scholarly journals Controls on the water vapor isotopic composition near the surface of tropical oceans and role of boundary layer mixing processes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Risi ◽  
Joseph Galewsky ◽  
Gilles Reverdin ◽  
Florent Brient
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Mixing Processes ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Air Mixing

Abstract. Understanding what controls the water vapor isotopic composition of the sub-cloud layer (SCL) over tropical oceans (δD0) is a first step towards understanding the water vapor isotopic composition everywhere in the troposphere. We propose an analytical model to predict δD0 as a function of sea surface conditions, humidity and temperature profiles, and the altitude from which the free tropospheric air originates (zorig). To do so, we extend previous studies by (1) prescribing the shape of δD0 vertical profiles, and (2) linking δD0 to zorig. The model relies on the hypotheses that δD0 profiles are steeper than mixing lines and no clouds are precipitating. We show that δD0 does not depend on the intensity of entrainment, dampening hope that δD0 measurements could help constrain this long-searched quantity. Based on an isotope-enabled general circulation model simulation, we show that δD0 variations are mainly controlled by mid-tropospheric depletion and rain evaporation in ascending regions, and by sea surface temperature and zorig in subsiding regions. When the air mixing into the SCL is lower in altitude, it is moister, and thus it depletes more efficiently the SCL. In turn, could δD0 measurements help estimate zorig and thus discriminate between different mixing processes? Estimates that are accurate enough to be useful would be difficult to achieve in practice, requiring measuring daily δD profiles, and measuring δD0 with an accuracy of 0.1 ‰ and 0.4 ‰ in trade-wind cumulus and strato-cumulus clouds respectively.

Reevaluation of Design Waves Off the Western Indian Coast Considering Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pentapati Satyavathi ◽  
Makarand C. Deo ◽  
Jyoti Kerkar ◽  
Ponnumony Vethamony
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wave Data

AbstractKnowledge of design waves with long return periods forms an essential input to many engineering applications, including structural design and analysis. Such extreme or long-term waves are conventionally evaluated using observed or hindcast historical wave data. Globally, waves are expected to undergo future changes in magnitude and behavior as a result of climate change induced by global warming. Considering future climate change, this study attempts to reevaluate significant wave height (Hs) as well as average spectral wave period (Tz) with a return period of 100 years for a series of locations along the western Indian coastline. Historical waves are simulated using a numerical wave model forced by wind data extracted from the archives of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, while future wave data are generated by a state-of-the-art Canadian general circulation model. A statistical extreme value analysis of past and projected wave data carried out with the help of the generalized Pareto distribution showed an increase in 100-year Hs and Tz along the Indian coastline, pointing out the necessity to reconsider the safety of offshore structures in the light of global warming.

scholarly journals Interannual Variations of Summer Monsoons: Sensitivity to Cloud Radiative Forcing

1998 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1883-1905 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. P. Sharma ◽  
H. Le Treut ◽  
G. Sèze ◽  
L. Fairhead ◽  
R. Sadourny
Keyword(s):  
Optical Properties ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Sea Temperature

Abstract The sensitivity of the interannual variations of the summer monsoons to imposed cloudiness has been studied with a general circulation model using the initial conditions prepared from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses of 1 May 1987 and 1988. The cloud optical properties in this global model are calculated from prognostically computed cloud liquid water. The model successfully simulates the contrasting behavior of these two successive monsoons. However, when the optical properties of the observed clouds are specified in the model runs, the simulations show some degradation over India and its vicinity. The main cause of this degradation is the reduced land–sea temperature contrast resulting from the radiative effects of the observed clouds imposed in such simulations. It is argued that the high concentration of condensed water content of clouds over the Indian land areas will serve to limit heating of the land, thereby reducing the thermal contrast that gives rise to a weak Somali jet. A countermonsoon circulation is, therefore, simulated in the vector difference field of 850-hPa winds from the model runs with externally specified clouds. This countermonsoon circulation is associated with an equatorial heat source that is the response of the model to the radiative effects of the imposed clouds. Indeed, there are at least two clear points that can be made: 1) the cloud–SST patterns, together, affect the interannual variability; and 2) with both clouds and SST imposed, the model simulation is less sensitive to initial conditions. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of dynamically consistent clouds developing in response to the dynamical, thermal, and moist state of the atmosphere during model integrations.

scholarly journals Interannual Variations of Wind Regimes off the Subtropical Western Australia Coast during Austral Winter and Spring

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 5587-5599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Weller ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Harry Hendon ◽  
Jian Ma ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Australian Continent

Abstract Off the Western Australia coast, interannual variations of wind regime during the austral winter and spring are significantly correlated with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by an idealized IOD sea surface temperature anomaly field suggest that the IOD-generated deep atmospheric convection anomalies trigger a Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere that propagates into the southern extratropics and induces positive geopotential height anomalies over southern Australia, independent of the SAM. The positive geopotential height anomalies extended from the upper troposphere to the surface, south of the Australian continent, resulting in easterly wind anomalies off the Western Australia coast and a reduction of the high-frequency synoptic storm events that deliver the majority of southwest Australia rainfall during austral winter and spring. In the marine environment, the wind anomalies and reduction of storm events may hamper the western rock lobster recruitment process.

scholarly journals The Emergence of Shallow Easterly Jets within QBO Westerlies

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hitchcock ◽  
Peter H. Haynes ◽  
William J. Randel ◽  
Thomas Birner
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Shear Zones ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Eddy Fluxes ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

A configuration of an idealized general circulation model has been obtained in which a deep, stratospheric, equatorial, westerly jet is established that is spontaneously and quasi-periodically disrupted by shallow easterly jets. Similar to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) observed in early 2016, meridional fluxes of wave activity are found to play a central role. The possible relevance of two feedback mechanisms to these disruptions is considered. The first involves the secondary circulation produced in the shear zones on the upper and lower flanks of the easterly jet. This is found to play a role in maintaining the aspect ratio of the emerging easterly jet. The second involves the organization of the eddy fluxes by the mean flow: the presence of a weak easterly anomaly within a tall, tropical, westerly jet is demonstrated to produce enhanced and highly focused wave activity fluxes that reinforce and strengthen the easterly anomalies. The eddies appear to be organized by the formation of strong potential vorticity gradients on the subtropical flanks of the easterly anomaly. Similar wave activity and potential vorticity structures are found in the ERA-Interim for the observed QBO disruption, indicating this second feedback was active then.

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