scholarly journals Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 6297-6314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Soulivanh Thao ◽  
Julien Cattiaux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractDescribing the relationship between a weather event and climate change—a science usually termed event attribution—involves quantifying the extent to which human influence has affected the frequency or the strength of an observed event. In this study we show how event attribution can be implemented through the application of nonstationary statistics to transient simulations, typically covering the 1850–2100 period. The use of existing CMIP-style simulations has many advantages, including their availability for a large range of coupled models and the fact that they are not conditional to a given oceanic state. We develop a technique for providing a multimodel synthesis, consistent with the uncertainty analysis of long-term changes. Last, we describe how model estimates can be combined with historical observations to provide a single diagnosis accounting for both sources of information. The potential of this new method is illustrated using the 2003 European heat wave and under a Gaussian assumption. Results suggest that (i) it is feasible to perform event attribution using transient simulations and nonstationary statistics, even for a single model; (ii) the use of multimodel synthesis in event attribution is highly desirable given the spread in single-model estimates; and (iii) merging models and observations substantially reduces uncertainties in human-induced changes. Investigating transient simulations also enables us to derive insightful diagnostics of how the targeted event will be affected by climate change in the future.

scholarly journals Can we predict the future: juvenile finfish and their seagrass nurseries in the Chesapeake Bay

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 681-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Juvenile Fish ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Seagrass Habitat ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Landscape Level

Abstract The importance of estuarine seagrass beds as nurseries for juvenile fish has become a universal paradigm, especially for estuaries that are as important as the Chesapeake Bay. Yet, scientific tests of this hypothesis were equivocal depending on species, location, and metrics. Moreover, seagrasses themselves are under threat and one-third of seagrasses have disappeared worldwide with 65% of their losses occurring in estuaries. Although there have been extensive studies of seagrasses in the Chesapeake Bay, surprisingly few studies have quantified the relationship between seagrass as nurseries for finfish in the Bay. Of the few studies that have directly evaluated the use of seagrass nurseries, most have concentrated on single species or were of short duration. Few landscape-level or long-term studies have examined this relationship in the Bay or explored the potential effect of climate change. This review paper summarizes the seagrass habitat value as nurseries and presents recent juvenile fish studies that address the dearth of research at the long term and landscape level with an emphasis on the Chesapeake Bay. An important conclusion upon the review of these studies is that predicting the effects of climate change on fishery production remains uncertain.

Laying date of marsh tits Parus palustris in relation to climate change

Biologia ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdravko Dolenec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Laying Date ◽  
Bird Breeding ◽  
Spring Temperatures ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Marsh Tit ◽  
Term Data

AbstractIncreasing evidence suggests that climate change affects bird breeding phenology and other life-history traits of wildlife. This study is based on the mean spring temperatures (February, March, April) and laying dates of first eggs of the marsh tit Parus palustris. We collected data from 1984 to 2004 for the Mokrice area in NW Croatia. Correlation between laying date and mean spring temperatures was significant. The relationship between mean laying date (y) and air temperature (x) can be expressed as y = 44.69 − 2.08x. Results indicate that spring temperatures are a good predictor of timing of laying eggs. Such long-term data could than be used in order to assess the effects on biological systems if human activities influence climate.

scholarly journals Multifractal analysis of atmospheric carbon emissions and OECD industrial production index

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-430
Author(s):  
Sezer Kahyaoglu Bozkus ◽  
Hakan Kahyaoglu ◽  
Atahirou Mahamane Mahamane Lawali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study aims to analyze the dynamic behavior of the relationship between atmospheric carbon emissions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) industrial production index (IPI) in the short and long term by applying multifractal techniques. Design/methodology/approach Multifractal de-trended cross-correlation technique is used for this analysis based on the relevant literature. In addition, it is the most widely used approach to estimate multifractality because it generates robust empirical results against non-stationarities in the time series. Findings It is revealed that industrial production causes long and short term environmental costs. The OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions were found to have a strong correlation between the time domain. However, this relationship does not mostly take into account the frequency-based correlations with the tail effects caused by shocks that are effective on the economy. In this study, the long-term dependence of the relationship between the OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions differs from the correlation obtained by linear methods, as the analysis is based on the frequency. The major finding is that the Hurst coefficient is in the range 0.40-0.75 indicating. Research limitations/implications In this study, the local singular behavior of the time-series is analyzed to test for the multifractality characteristics of the series. In this context, the scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum are obtained to determine the origins of this multifractality. The multifractal time series are defined as the set of points with a given singularity exponent a where this exponent a is illustrated as a fractal with fractal dimension f(α). Therefore, the multifractality term indicates the existence of fluctuations, which are non-uniform and more importantly, their relative frequencies are also scale-dependent. Practical implications The results provide information based on the fluctuation in IPI, which determines the main conjuncture of the economy. An optimal strategy for shaping the consequences of climate change resulting from industrial production activities will not only need to be quite comprehensive and global in scale but also policies will need to be applicable to the national and local conditions of the given nation and adaptable to the needs of the country. Social implications The results provide information for the analysis of the environmental cost of climate change depending on the magnitude of the impact on the total supply. In addition to environmental problems, climate change leads to economic problems, and hence, policy instruments are introduced to fight against the adverse effects of it. Originality/value This study may be of practical and technical importance in regional climate change forecasting, extreme carbon emission regulations and industrial production resource management in the world economy. Hence, the major contribution of this study is to introduce an approach to sustainability for the analysis of the environmental cost of growth in the supply side economy.

scholarly journals Ranking Climate Change Adaptation Options

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Sinay ◽  
Rodney William (Bill) Carter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Simple Process ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Planning Processes ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Adaptation Options

Failure to adapt to climate change is currently considered one of the major threats affecting humanity. Hence, much effort is being put into discussing adaptation approaches. While many adaptation options have been identified, the academic literature does not present a simple process that local councils and community members can use to rank adaptation options. In this context, community members participating on planning processes are presented with many adaptation options, but with no objective approach for selection, which adds challenge to the planning process. With the objective of addressing this issue, this work proposes a simple equation that allows calculating the applicability level of adaptation options. Results can then be plotted into graphs that allow correlating adaptation options and applicability level, which can be easily understood by community members. To develop such equation, this work built on existing sophisticated models from where the indicators used on the equation were identified, as well as the relationship between them. A scale was proposed to help on identifying adaptation options that should be implemented on the short, medium and long term, and options that should only be implemented if the circumstance change.

Towards multi-method and multi-scale attribution of global wildfire danger

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongwei Liu ◽  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Matthew Blackett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Future Risk ◽  
Warming World

<p>Wildfires constitute a major natural hazard and pose huge risk to many regions of the world. The series of large fires across both hemispheres in recent years have led to inevitable questions about how human-induced climate change may be altering the character of such events. Providing answers to these questions is a crucial step to increasing resilience to major wildfires.</p><p>Long-term projections produced by state-of-the-art climate models, even when reliable, are not always a suitable means of communicating risk. Methodologies to attribute trends in meteorological phenomena associated with high-impact events to anthropogenic influence have the potential to better communicate risk and guide adaptation strategies. While the link between a warming world and heat-related extremes (e.g. heatwaves and droughts) is reasonably well-understood, there is a lack of consensus on the most appropriate and effective methodological approach for many variables, potentially impacted by warming climate, such as wildfire attribution. The link with climate change remains poorly understood and wildfires have been largely ignored by attribution studies to date.</p><p>As a first step towards the development of a seamless, globally-applicable framework for assessing past, present and future risk in wildfire danger, we present a global attribution analysis of wildfire danger. With initial focus on observational records, we use both established and novel empirical-statistical methods to attribute historical trends in episodes of extreme weather and climate conducive to wildfire ignition and spread. Particular consideration is given to the sensitivity of attribution findings to the spatial scale upon which the analysis is conducted. We also draw attention to a series of important, often overlooked, conceptual and technical challenges in event attribution, including validation and bias-correction of climate models and discuss the value of linking attribution of recent wildfire events with future risk assessment.</p>

scholarly journals The analysis of the relationship between CO2 level and economic growth

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Szira Zoltán ◽  
Bárdos Kinga Ilona ◽  
Alghamdi Hani ◽  
Enkhjav Tumentsetseg ◽  
Erika Varga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. Carbon dioxide emission is one of the main reasons for global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing. Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In our research, let’s examine the relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP/capita in developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals A Look at Global Climate Change Through Papal Encyclicals

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-65
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The aim of this article is a comprehensive review of Papal Encyclicals in the context of global environmental and climatic change, against the backdrop of the activity of multinational institutions. The Encyclicals look to the future in teaching the faithful, in a manner which indicates that they are part of a goal-oriented policy, both in terms of scientific research, and concrete economic, social, and geopolitical activity. Attention has also been paid to the relationship between the activity of humankind, and global environmental change, particularly of the biotic and climatic variety. If this aggressive anthropogenic activity cannot be deemed responsible for initiating global warming, it may certainly be seen to have “encouraged” it. The impulses behind sustainable development, as well as the instruments of its implementation, and the inspiration behind the idea, have also been discussed. The achievement of this goal, necessitating the balancing of anthropological aspirations and the long-term security of the environment are also referenced in the Encyclicals.

scholarly journals INFLUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BEACH PROFILE

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Kentaro Hayashi ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Hajime Mase ◽  
Yoshiaki Kuriyama ◽  
Nobuhisa Kobayashi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Parameter ◽  
Characteristic Change ◽  
Beach Profile ◽  
Profile Data ◽  
Wave Characteristics ◽  
Equilibrium Beach Profile ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Profile Change

The influences of climate change due to global warming have been estimated on not only sea level rise but also wave characteristics such as height or energy flux. In this study, the characteristics of medium and long term beach profile change is investigated based on the observed beach profile data at HORS for past 24 years and the relationship between the wave characteristics observed at Kashima port and the climate indexes. In order to estimate the influences of the medium and long term wave characteristic change, a theory is introduced based on equilibrium beach profile with wave parameter, which is theoretically based on sediment characteristic. Moreover, the validation of the theory is evaluated based on the observed beach profile data and wave data.

Climate-change-induced changes in steep alpine permafrost bedrock. 13 years of 3D-ERT at the Steintälli ridge, Switzerland.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Scandroglio ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Long Term Observation ◽  
Induced Changes

<p>Warming of mountain permafrost leads to growth of active layer thickness and reduction of rock wall stability. The subsequent increase of instable rock volumes can have disastrous or even fatal consequences, especially when cascading events are simultaneously triggered. This growth of climate-change-connected hazard, together with the recent increase of exposition of infrastructure and people, poses the alpine environments at a high risk, which needs to be monitored. Laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) has shown to provide a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen conditions, presumably being the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique in permafrost areas where boreholes are not available.</p><p>The data presented here are obtained at the Steintälli ridge in Switzerland, which presents highly vulnerable permafrost conditions. A consistent 3D field set-up, the robust temperature calibration and the quantitative inversion scheme allow to compare measurements from the longest time series (2006-2019) of ERT in steep bedrock. A direct link to mechanical changes measured with tape extensometer is provided. Comparison of repeated hourly measurements as well as Wenner and Schlumberger arrays are also shown here, in order to increase the robustness of the delivered results.</p><p>Confirming the long-term observation from air temperatures, results from multiple parallel transects show an average resistivity reduction of 22%, concentrated at deeper layers of the permafrost lens. The permafrost area in the 3D cross sections also decreased from 30 to 10% (about 500 to 150m<sup>2</sup> in our transects), with losses mainly localized on the south-east part of the study site, but in some cases also extending to the north face. </p>

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