Climate-change-induced changes in steep alpine permafrost bedrock. 13 years of 3D-ERT at the Steintälli ridge, Switzerland.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Scandroglio ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Long Term Observation ◽  
Induced Changes

<p>Warming of mountain permafrost leads to growth of active layer thickness and reduction of rock wall stability. The subsequent increase of instable rock volumes can have disastrous or even fatal consequences, especially when cascading events are simultaneously triggered. This growth of climate-change-connected hazard, together with the recent increase of exposition of infrastructure and people, poses the alpine environments at a high risk, which needs to be monitored. Laboratory-calibrated Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) has shown to provide a sensitive record for frozen vs. unfrozen conditions, presumably being the most accurate quantitative permafrost monitoring technique in permafrost areas where boreholes are not available.</p><p>The data presented here are obtained at the Steintälli ridge in Switzerland, which presents highly vulnerable permafrost conditions. A consistent 3D field set-up, the robust temperature calibration and the quantitative inversion scheme allow to compare measurements from the longest time series (2006-2019) of ERT in steep bedrock. A direct link to mechanical changes measured with tape extensometer is provided. Comparison of repeated hourly measurements as well as Wenner and Schlumberger arrays are also shown here, in order to increase the robustness of the delivered results.</p><p>Confirming the long-term observation from air temperatures, results from multiple parallel transects show an average resistivity reduction of 22%, concentrated at deeper layers of the permafrost lens. The permafrost area in the 3D cross sections also decreased from 30 to 10% (about 500 to 150m<sup>2</sup> in our transects), with losses mainly localized on the south-east part of the study site, but in some cases also extending to the north face. </p>

scholarly journals Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Ribeiro ◽  
Audrey Limoges ◽  
Guillaume Massé ◽  
Kasper L. Johansen ◽  
William Colgan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Sediment Cores ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Little Auk ◽  
The North ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
North Water

AbstractHigh Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihoods are tightly linked and exposed to climate change, yet assessing their sensitivity requires a long-term perspective. Here, we assess the vulnerability of the North Water polynya, a unique seaice ecosystem that sustains the world’s northernmost Inuit communities and several keystone Arctic species. We reconstruct mid-to-late Holocene changes in sea ice, marine primary production, and little auk colony dynamics through multi-proxy analysis of marine and lake sediment cores. Our results suggest a productive ecosystem by 4400–4200 cal yrs b2k coincident with the arrival of the first humans in Greenland. Climate forcing during the late Holocene, leading to periods of polynya instability and marine productivity decline, is strikingly coeval with the human abandonment of Greenland from c. 2200–1200 cal yrs b2k. Our long-term perspective highlights the future decline of the North Water ecosystem, due to climate warming and changing sea-ice conditions, as an important climate change risk.

scholarly journals Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 6297-6314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Soulivanh Thao ◽  
Julien Cattiaux
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractDescribing the relationship between a weather event and climate change—a science usually termed event attribution—involves quantifying the extent to which human influence has affected the frequency or the strength of an observed event. In this study we show how event attribution can be implemented through the application of nonstationary statistics to transient simulations, typically covering the 1850–2100 period. The use of existing CMIP-style simulations has many advantages, including their availability for a large range of coupled models and the fact that they are not conditional to a given oceanic state. We develop a technique for providing a multimodel synthesis, consistent with the uncertainty analysis of long-term changes. Last, we describe how model estimates can be combined with historical observations to provide a single diagnosis accounting for both sources of information. The potential of this new method is illustrated using the 2003 European heat wave and under a Gaussian assumption. Results suggest that (i) it is feasible to perform event attribution using transient simulations and nonstationary statistics, even for a single model; (ii) the use of multimodel synthesis in event attribution is highly desirable given the spread in single-model estimates; and (iii) merging models and observations substantially reduces uncertainties in human-induced changes. Investigating transient simulations also enables us to derive insightful diagnostics of how the targeted event will be affected by climate change in the future.

scholarly journals Warm-water decapods and the trophic amplification of climate in the North Sea

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 773-776 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Lindley ◽  
G. Beaugrand ◽  
C. Luczak ◽  
J.-M. Dewarumez ◽  
R. R. Kirby
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Warm Water ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Southern North Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Ecosystem Shift ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
Water Species

A long-term time series of plankton and benthic records in the North Sea indicates an increase in decapods and a decline in their prey species that include bivalves and flatfish recruits. Here, we show that in the southern North Sea the proportion of decapods to bivalves doubled following a temperature-driven, abrupt ecosystem shift during the 1980s. Analysis of decapod larvae in the plankton reveals a greater presence and spatial extent of warm-water species where the increase in decapods is greatest. These changes paralleled the arrival of new species such as the warm-water swimming crab Polybius henslowii now found in the southern North Sea. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and in the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime.

Climate change in the semiarid prairie of southwestern Saskatchewan: Temperature, precipitation, wind, and incoming solar energy

2000 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Cutforth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Key Words Climate Change

Long-term weather data were analyzed to study annual as well as seasonal climate change within an approximately 15 000-km2 area in the semiarid prairie near Swift Current, SK. The climate of the study region has changed over the past 50 yr. Annually, average maximum (Tmx) and minimum (Tmn) air temperatures have increased – rainfall amounts and the number of rainfall events (≥0.5 mm) have increased since the late 1960s-early 1970s; incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. Seasonally, for January through April (JFMA), both Tmx and Tmn have increased, the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s, snowfall amounts and the number of snowfall events (≥0.5 cm) have decreased; the number of precipitation events (≥0.5 mm) has decreased, incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. For May through August (MJJA), Tmn has increased, incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the mid-1970s. For September through December (SOND), the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s and wind speed has decreased. Since 1950, JFMA has become drier and, relative to JFMA, SOND has become wetter. Generally, JFMA has experienced the largest change in climate, whereas SOND has experienced the least climate change. Precipitation amounts and events were negatively correlated with increasing Tmx, suggesting a future decrease in precipitation amounts for southwestern Saskatchewan if global warming continues. Key words: Climate change, semiarid prairie, temperature, precipitation, wind, solar energy

Simulation and validation of long-term ground surface subsidence in continuous permafrost, western Arctic Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Brendan O'Neill ◽  
Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Ground Surface ◽  
Surface Subsidence ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Mackenzie Delta ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Nest Model ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Ice Content ◽  
Ground Surface Subsidence

<p>Ground surface subsidence caused by the melt of excess ice is a key geomorphic process in permafrost regions. Subsidence can damage infrastructure, alter ecology and hydrology, and influence carbon cycling. The Geological Survey of Canada maintains a network of thaw tubes in northwestern Canada, which records annual thaw penetration, active-layer thickness, and ground surface elevation changes at numerous sites. Measurements from the early 1990s from 17 sites in the Mackenzie Delta area have highlighted persistent increases in thaw penetration in response to rising air temperatures. These increases in thaw penetration have been accompanied by significant ground surface subsidence (~5 to 20 cm) at 10 ice rich sites, with a median subsidence rate of 0.4 cm a<sup>-1</sup> (min: 0.2, max: 0.8 cm a<sup>-1</sup>). Here we present preliminary results comparing these long-term field data to simulations for two observation sites using the Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST) model. NEST has been modified to include a routine that accounts for ground surface subsidence caused by the melt of excess ground ice. The excess ice content of upper permafrost in the simulations was estimated based on ratios between thaw penetration and subsidence measured at each thaw tube. The NEST simulations begin in 1901, and there is little ground surface subsidence until the 1980s. The simulated rate of ground surface subsidence increases in the 1990s. The modelled ground surface subsidence is in good agreement with the measured annual magnitudes and longer-term patterns over the measurement period from 1992 to 2017. This preliminary assessment indicates that the modified NEST model is capable of predicting gradual thaw subsidence in ice-rich permafrost environments over decadal timescales.</p>

Relationship Between the Number of Days with Thunderstorms and the Duration of Thunderstorms According to Visual and Instrumental Observations

2020 ◽  
pp. 30-36
Author(s):  
A.H. Adzhiev ◽  
G.V. Kupovykh ◽  
R.A. Gyatov ◽  
Z.M. Kerefova
Keyword(s):  
Observation Point ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The North ◽  
Instrumental Observations ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Long Term Observation ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Observation Period

For study the relationship between number of days with a thunderstorm recorded by weather stations and duration of thunderstorms in hours for these days, instrumental observations of the thunder direction-finding network of High-Mountain Geophysical Institute were used. We used data on thunderstorms in the North Caucasus for a long-term observation period in 2008-2019. Based on these data, they are grouped for various territories for analysis: the number of days with thunderstorms per month, per year, and the duration of thunderstorms per month and per year. A correlation analysis was performed between the number of days with thunderstorms and the duration of thunder-storms in hours according to LS 800 data. Thus, the dependence of the number of days with thunderstorms on the duration of thunderstorms is clearly traced - with an increase in the number of days with thunderstorms per year, the observation point increases in direct proportion to the duration of thunderstorms per year. With an increase in the number of days with thunderstorms on a given territory by one day, for the month in question, the duration of thunderstorms increases by 3.89 hours.

scholarly journals Translocation of an arctic seashore plant reveals signs of maladaptation to altered climatic conditions

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e10357
Author(s):  
Maria Hällfors ◽  
Susanna Lehvävirta ◽  
Tone Aandahl ◽  
Iida-Maria Lehtimäki ◽  
Lars Ola Nilsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reciprocal Translocation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Current Range ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
The North ◽  
Translocation Experiments ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Measures Of Performance

Ongoing anthropogenic climate change alters the local climatic conditions to which species may be adapted. Information on species’ climatic requirements and their intraspecific variation is necessary for predicting the effects of climate change on biodiversity. We used a climatic gradient to test whether populations of two allopatric varieties of an arctic seashore herb (Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica) show adaptation to their local climates and how a future warmer climate may affect them. Our experimental set-up combined a reciprocal translocation within the distribution range of the species with an experiment testing the performance of the sampled populations in warmer climatic conditions south of their range. We monitored survival, size, and flowering over four growing seasons as measures of performance and, thus, proxies of fitness. We found that both varieties performed better in experimental gardens towards the north. Interestingly, highest up in the north, the southern variety outperformed the northern one. Supported by weather data, this suggests that the climatic optima of both varieties have moved at least partly outside their current range. Further warming would make the current environments of both varieties even less suitable. We conclude that Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica is already suffering from adaptational lag due to climate change, and that further warming may increase this maladaptation, especially for the northern variety. The study also highlights that it is not sufficient to run only reciprocal translocation experiments. Climate change is already shifting the optimum conditions for many species and adaptation needs also to be tested outside the current range of the focal taxon in order to include both historic conditions and future conditions.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE “PRECIPITATION – SOIL – DRAINAGE” SYSTEM UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH-WEST OF RUSSIA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. B. Uskov ◽  
◽  
K. G. Moiseyev ◽  
M. V. Nikolaev ◽  
O. V. Kononenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Soil Drainage ◽  
Drainage Systems ◽  
North West ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
The North ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

Purpose: to analyze the soil-climatic and anthropogenic reasons of decreasing drainage efficiency of closed pottery tubular drainage on the reclaimed lands of the North-West of Russia under the observed local weather conditions against the background of global climate changes. Materials and methods. The objects of research are seasonal precipitation regimes, reclaimed lands and drainage systems of closed tubular drainage. The methods of applied mathematical statistics, the ensemble method of processing and generalization of climate forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), modernized by the authors were used in research. Monitoring data on changes in the physical properties of soils of reclaimed lands during their long-term operation were obtained using laboratory agrophysical methods for studying samples taken in the field. Results. It is shown that under the conditions of the observed climatic changes, the frequency, intensity and extremeness of atmospheric precipitation are increased. Long-term exploitation of lands with a leaching drainage regime is accompanied by changes in the hydrophysical properties of soils, for example, the coefficient of heterogeneity of the subsurface horizons of soils texture of automorphic genesis decreased from 26 to 6. The system “precipitation – soil – drainage” in climatically abnormal weather conditions exceeding the initial calculated precipitation level mode by 10–20 %, is unable to ensure the removal of excess moisture from the root layer. Conclusions: when creating and reconstructing such reclamation drainage systems it is recommended to take into account the tendencies of changes in the spatial-temporal statistical structure of precipitation and to design technologies for regulating the water regime with systems for intercepting and diverting surface runoff on such reclaimed lands.

scholarly journals Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain; is there a link?

2006 ◽  
Vol 274 (1607) ◽  
pp. 253-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Luís M Carrascal ◽  
Luis Durán ◽  
Susan Walker ◽  
Matthew C Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Batrachochytrium Dendrobatidis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
The North ◽  
Natural Park ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Amphibian species are declining at an alarming rate on a global scale in large part owing to an infectious disease caused by the chytridiomycete fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis . This disease of amphibians has recently emerged within Europe, but knowledge of its effects on amphibian assemblages remains poor. Importantly, little is known about the environmental envelope that is associated with chytridiomycosis in Europe and the potential for climate change to drive future disease dynamics. Here, we use long-term observations on amphibian population dynamics in the Peñalara Natural Park, Spain, to investigate the link between climate change and chytridiomycosis. Our analysis shows a significant association between change in local climatic variables and the occurrence of chytridiomycosis within this region. Specifically, we show that rising temperature is linked to the occurrence of chytrid-related disease, consistent with the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. We show that these local variables are driven by general circulation patterns, principally the North Atlantic Oscillation. Given that B. dendrobatidis is known to be broadly distributed across Europe, there is now an urgent need to assess the generality of our finding and determine whether climate-driven epidemics may be expected to impact on amphibian species across the wider region.

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