scholarly journals Variability of Cloudiness over Mountain Terrain in the Western United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1227-1245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Sumargo ◽  
Daniel R. Cayan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Cloud Albedo

Abstract This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of cloudiness across mountain zones in the western United States. Daily average cloud albedo is derived from a 19-yr series (1996–2014) of half-hourly Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. During springtime when incident radiation is active in driving snowmelt–runoff processes, the magnitude of daily cloud variations can exceed 50% of long-term averages. Even when aggregated over 3-month periods, cloud albedo varies by ±10% of long-term averages in many locations. Rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOFs) of daily cloud albedo anomalies over high-elevation regions of the western conterminous United States identify distinct regional patterns, wherein the first five REOFs account for ~67% of the total variance. REOF1 is centered over Northern California and Oregon and is pronounced between November and March. REOF2 is centered over the interior northwest and is accentuated between March and July. Each of the REOF/rotated principal components (RPC) modes associates with anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and one or more large-scale teleconnection indices (Arctic Oscillation, Niño-3.4, and Pacific–North American), which helps to explain why anomalous cloudiness patterns take on regional spatial scales and contain substantial variability over seasonal time scales.

scholarly journals Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 374 (1763) ◽  
pp. 20170394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S. Park ◽  
Ian Breckheimer ◽  
Alex C. Williams ◽  
Edith Law ◽  
Aaron M. Ellison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Flowering Plant ◽  
Reproductive Phenology ◽  
Herbarium Specimens ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Continental Scale

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene’.

Warming is Driving Decreases in Snow Fractions While Runoff Efficiency Remains Mostly Unchanged in Snow-Covered Areas of the Western United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 803-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
David M. Wolock ◽  
Melissa Valentin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
Surface Water Supply

Abstract Winter snowfall and accumulation is an important component of the surface water supply in the western United States. In these areas, increasing winter temperatures T associated with global warming can influence the amount of winter precipitation P that falls as snow S. In this study we examine long-term trends in the fraction of winter P that falls as S (Sfrac) for 175 hydrologic units (HUs) in snow-covered areas of the western United States for the period 1951–2014. Because S is a substantial contributor to runoff R across most of the western United States, we also examine long-term trends in water-year runoff efficiency [computed as water-year R/water-year P (Reff)] for the same 175 HUs. In that most S records are short in length, we use model-simulated S and R from a monthly water balance model. Results for Sfrac indicate long-term negative trends for most of the 175 HUs, with negative trends for 139 (~79%) of the HUs being statistically significant at a 95% confidence level (p = 0.05). Additionally, results indicate that the long-term negative trends in Sfrac have been largely driven by increases in T. In contrast, time series of Reff for the 175 HUs indicate a mix of positive and negative long-term trends, with few trends being statistically significant (at p = 0.05). Although there has been a notable shift in the timing of R to earlier in the year for most HUs, there have not been substantial decreases in water-year R for the 175 HUs.

A collaborative model for large-scale riparian restoration in the western United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Daniel Oppenheimer ◽  
Stacy K. Beaugh ◽  
Julie A. Knudson ◽  
Peter Mueller ◽  
Nikki Grant-Hoffman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Riparian Restoration ◽  
Collaborative Model

Landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens-Ove Näslund
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Continental Margins ◽  
Landscape Development ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Break Up

Large-scale bedrock morphology and relief of two key areas, the Jutulsessen Nunatak and the Jutulstraumen ice stream are used to discuss glascial history and landscape development in western and central Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Two main landform components were identified: well-defined summit plateau surfaces and a typical alpine glacial landscape. The flat, high-elevation plateau surfaces previously were part of one or several continuous regional planation surfaces. In western Dronning Maud Land, overlying cover rocks of late Palaeozoic age show that the planation surface(s) existed in the early Permian, prior to the break-up of Gondwana. A well-develoment escarpment, a mega landform typical for passive continental margins, bounds the palaeosurface remnants to the north for a distance of at least 700 km. The Cenozoic glacial landscape, incised in the palaeosurface and escarpment, is exemplified by Jutulsessen Nunatak, where a c. 1.2 km deep glacial valley system is developed. However, the prominent Penck-Jutul Trough represents some of the deepest dissection of the palaeosurface. This originally tectonic feature is today occupied by the Jutulstraumen ice stream. New topographic data show that the bed of the Penck-Jutul Trough is situated 1.9±1.1 km below sea level, and that the total landscape relief is at least 4.2 km. Today's relief is a result of several processes, including tectonic faulting, subaerial weathering, fluvial erosion, and glacial erosion. It is probable that erosion by ice streams has deepened the tectonic troughs of Dronning Maud Land since the onset of ice sheet glaciation in the Oligocene, and continues today. An attempt is made to identify major events in the long-term landscape development of Dronning Maud Land, since the break-up of the Gondwana continent.

Planning or Improvisation

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-120
Author(s):  
Alasdair Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

This chapter assesses the role of planning in the design of governance strategies. Enthusiasm for large-scale planning—also known as overall, comprehensive, long-term, economic, or social planning—boomed and collapsed in twentieth century. At the start of that century, progressive reformers seized on planning as the remedy for the United States' social and economic woes. By the end of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for large-scale planning had collapsed. Plans could be made, but they were unlikely to be obeyed, and even if they were obeyed, they were unlikely to work as predicted. The chapter then explains that leaders should make plans while being realistic about the limits of planning. It is necessary to exercise foresight, set priorities, and design policies that seem likely to accomplish those priorities. Simply by doing this, leaders encourage coordination among individuals and businesses, through conversation about goals and tactics. Neither is imperfect knowledge a total barrier to planning. There is no “law” of unintended consequences: it is not inevitable that government actions will produce entirely unexpected results. The more appropriate stance is modesty about what is known and what can be achieved. Plans that launch big schemes on brittle assumptions are more likely to fail. Plans that proceed more tentatively, that allow room for testing, learning, and adjustment, are less likely to collapse in the face of unexpected results.

scholarly journals A climatic dipole drives short- and long-term patterns of postfire forest recovery in the western United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (47) ◽  
pp. 29730-29737
Author(s):  
Caitlin E. Littlefield ◽  
Solomon Z. Dobrowski ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Sean A. Parks ◽  
Kimberley T. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Forest Recovery ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Northern Rocky Mountains ◽  
Interior West ◽  
Favorable Conditions

Researchers are increasingly examining patterns and drivers of postfire forest recovery amid growing concern that climate change and intensifying fires will trigger ecosystem transformations. Diminished seed availability and postfire drought have emerged as key constraints on conifer recruitment. However, the spatial and temporal extent to which recurring modes of climatic variability shape patterns of postfire recovery remain largely unexplored. Here, we identify a north–south dipole in annual climatic moisture deficit anomalies across the Interior West of the US and characterize its influence on forest recovery from fire. We use annually resolved establishment models from dendrochronological records to correlate this climatic dipole with short-term postfire juvenile recruitment. We also examine longer-term recovery trajectories using Forest Inventory and Analysis data from 989 burned plots. We show that annual postfire ponderosa pine recruitment probabilities in the northern Rocky Mountains (NR) and the southwestern US (SW) track the strength of the dipole, while declining overall due to increasing aridity. This indicates that divergent recovery trajectories may be triggered concurrently across large spatial scales: favorable conditions in the SW can correspond to drought in the NR that inhibits ponderosa pine establishment, and vice versa. The imprint of this climatic dipole is manifest for years postfire, as evidenced by dampened long-term likelihoods of juvenile ponderosa pine presence in areas that experienced postfire drought. These findings underscore the importance of climatic variability at multiple spatiotemporal scales in driving cross-regional patterns of forest recovery and have implications for understanding ecosystem transformations and species range dynamics under global change.

scholarly journals A Dynamical and Statistical Characterization of U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Associated Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1307-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siyu Zhao ◽  
Yi Deng ◽  
Robert X. Black
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Base Function ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Regional patterns of extreme precipitation events occurring over the continental United States are identified via hierarchical cluster analysis of observed daily precipitation for the period 1950–2005. Six canonical extreme precipitation patterns (EPPs) are isolated for the boreal warm season and five for the cool season. The large-scale meteorological pattern (LMP) inducing each EPP is identified and used to create a “base function” for evaluating a climate model’s potential for accurately representing the different patterns of precipitation extremes. A parallel analysis of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), reveals that the CCSM4 successfully captures the main U.S. EPPs for both the warm and cool seasons, albeit with varying degrees of accuracy. The model’s skill in simulating each EPP tends to be positively correlated with its capability in representing the associated LMP. Model bias in the occurrence frequency of a governing LMP is directly related to the frequency bias in the corresponding EPP. In addition, however, discrepancies are found between the CCSM4’s representation of LMPs and EPPs over regions such as the western United States and Midwest, where topographic precipitation influences and organized convection are prominent, respectively. In these cases, the model representation of finer-scale physical processes appears to be at least equally important compared to the LMPs in driving the occurrence of extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 269-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Lindsay ◽  
A. Schweiger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Arctic Basin ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Sampling Errors ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness

Abstract. Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of mean ice thickness have been sparse in time and space, making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness, and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling errors. Observational sources used in this study include upward-looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to determine the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems, using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month, and the primary time period analyzed is 2000–2012 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is −0.58 ± 0.07 m decade−1 over the period 2000–2012. Applying our method to the period 1975–2012 for the central Arctic Basin where we have sufficient data (the SCICEX box), we find that the annual mean ice thickness has decreased from 3.59 m in 1975 to 1.25 m in 2012, a 65% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational evidence of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

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