A Multi-decadal Analysis of Reservoir Storage Change in Developing Regions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Developing Regions ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Historical Observation ◽  
Reservoir Assessment ◽  
Storage Change

Abstract The limited amount of shared reservoir monitoring data around the world is insufficient to quantify the dynamic nature of reservoir operation with conventional ground-based methods. With the emergence of the Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT) driven by a multitude of earth observing satellites and models, historical observation of reservoir operation spanning 35 years was made using open-source techniques. Trends in reservoir storage change were compared with trends of four critical hydrologic variables (precipitation, runoff, evaporation, and Palmer Drought Severity Index) to understand the potential role of natural drivers in altering reservoir operating pattern. It was found that the reservoirs in Africa were losing active storage at a rate of more than 1% per year of total storage capacity. Smaller reservoirs (with a capacity of less than 0.5 km3) in South-East Asia were found to experience a sharp gain in storage of 0.5% to 1% per year of total storage capacity. Storage change trends of large reservoirs with multiple years of residence time that are designed for strategic water supply needs and drought control were found to be less affected by precipitation trends and influenced more by drought and evaporation trends. Over Africa, most reservoir storage change trends were dictated by evaporation trends, while South Asian reservoirs appear to have their storage change influenced by drought and evaporation trends. Finally, findings suggest that operation of newer reservoirs are more sensitive to long-term hydrological trends and the regulated surface water variability that is controlled by older dams in the upstream.

scholarly journals An Operation-Based Scheme for a Multiyear and Multipurpose Reservoir to Enhance Macroscale Hydrologic Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 270-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiping Wu ◽  
Ji Chen
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Multipurpose Reservoir

Abstract This paper develops an operation-based numerical scheme for simulating storage in and outflow from a multiyear and multipurpose reservoir at a daily time step in order to enhance the simulation capacity of macroscale land surface hydrologic models. In the new scheme, besides the purpose of flood control, three other operational purposes—hydropower generation, downstream water supply, and water impoundment—are considered, and accordingly three related decision-based parameters are introduced. The new scheme is then integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a macroscale hydrologic model. The observed water storage and outflow from a multiyear and multipurpose reservoir, the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in southern China, are used to examine the new scheme. Compared with two other reservoir operation schemes—namely, a modified existing reservoir operation scheme in SWAT (i.e., the target release scheme) and a multilinear regression scheme—the new scheme can give a consistently better simulation of the reservoir storage and outflow. Furthermore, through a sensitivity analysis, this study shows that the three decision-based parameters can represent the significance of each operational purpose in different periods and the new scheme can advance the flexibility and capability of the simulation of the reservoir storage and outflow.

scholarly journals Analysis of the influence of input data uncertainties on determining the reliability of reservoir storage capacity

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Marton ◽  
Miloš Starý ◽  
Pavel Menšík
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Operating Data

Abstract The paper contains a sensitivity analysis of the influence of uncertainties in input hydrological, morphological and operating data required for a proposal for active reservoir conservation storage capacity and its achieved values. By introducing uncertainties into the considered inputs of the water management analysis of a reservoir, the subsequent analysed reservoir storage capacity is also affected with uncertainties. The values of water outflows from the reservoir and the hydrological reliabilities are affected with uncertainties as well. A simulation model of reservoir behaviour has been compiled with this kind of calculation as stated below. The model allows evaluation of the solution results, taking uncertainties into consideration, in contributing to a reduction in the occurrence of failure or lack of water during reservoir operation in low-water and dry periods.

scholarly journals Drought Events over the Amazon River Basin (1993–2019) as Detected by the Climate-Driven Total Water Storage Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1124
Author(s):  
Kunjun Tian ◽  
Zhengtao Wang ◽  
Fupeng Li ◽  
Yu Gao ◽  
Yang Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Total Water ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Storage Change

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has measured total water storage change (TWSC) and interpreted drought patterns in an unparalleled way since 2002. Nevertheless, there are few sources that can be used to understand drought patterns prior to the GRACE era. In this study, we extended the gridded GRACE TWSC to 1993 by combining principal component analysis (PCA), least square (LS) fitting, and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods using climate variables as input drivers. We used the extended (climate-driven) TWSC to interpret drought patterns (1993–2019) over the Amazon basin. Results showed that, in the Amazon area with the resolution of 0.5°, GRACE, GRACE follow on, and Swarm had correlation coefficients of 0.95, 0.92, and 0.77 compared with climate-driven TWSCS, respectively. The drought patterns assessed by the climate-driven TWSC were consistent with those interpreted by the Palmer Drought Severity Index and GRACE TWSC. We also found that the 1998 and 2016 drought events in the Amazon, both induced by strong El Niño events, showed similar drought patterns. This study provides a new perspective for interpreting long-term drought patterns prior to the GRACE period.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 4453-4470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Xiong ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Jun Xia ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Cong Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Reservoir Storage

Abstract. Many studies have shown that downstream flood regimes have been significantly altered by upstream reservoir operation. Reservoir effects on the downstream flow regime are normally performed by comparing the pre-dam and post-dam frequencies of certain streamflow indicators, such as floods and droughts. In this study, a rainfall–reservoir composite index (RRCI) is developed to precisely quantify reservoir impacts on downstream flood frequency under a framework of a covariate-based nonstationary flood frequency analysis using the Bayesian inference method. The RRCI is derived from a combination of both a reservoir index (RI) for measuring the effects of reservoir storage capacity and a rainfall index. More precisely, the OR joint (the type of possible joint events based on the OR operator) exceedance probability (OR-JEP) of certain scheduling-related variables selected out of five variables that describe the multiday antecedent rainfall input (MARI) is used to measure the effects of antecedent rainfall on reservoir operation. Then, the RI-dependent or RRCI-dependent distribution parameters and five distributions, the gamma, Weibull, lognormal, Gumbel, and generalized extreme value, are used to analyze the annual maximum daily flow (AMDF) of the Ankang, Huangjiagang, and Huangzhuang gauging stations of the Han River, China. A phenomenon is observed in which although most of the floods that peak downstream of reservoirs have been reduced in magnitude by upstream reservoirs, some relatively large flood events have still occurred, such as at the Huangzhuang station in 1983. The results of nonstationary flood frequency analysis show that, in comparison to the RI, the RRCI that combines both the RI and the OR-JEP resulted in a much better explanation for such phenomena of flood occurrences downstream of reservoirs. A Bayesian inference of the 100-year return level of the AMDF shows that the optimal RRCI-dependent distribution, compared to the RI-dependent one, results in relatively smaller estimated values. However, exceptions exist due to some low OR-JEP values. In addition, it provides a smaller uncertainty range. This study highlights the necessity of including antecedent rainfall effects, in addition to the effects of reservoir storage capacity, on reservoir operation to assess the reservoir effects on downstream flood frequency. This analysis can provide a more comprehensive approach for downstream flood risk management under the impacts of reservoirs.

Drought Patterns over the Amazon River Basin (1993-2019) as Interpreted by the Climate-driven Total Water Storage Change Fields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fupeng Li ◽  
Zhengtao Wang ◽  
Nengfang Chao ◽  
Wei Liang ◽  
Kunjun Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Gravity Recovery ◽  
Grace Mission ◽  
Storage Change

<p><span>The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, since 2002, has measured total water storage change (TWSC) and interpreted drought patterns in an unparalleled way. Nevertheless, there are still few sources could be used to understand drought patterns prior to the GRACE era. Here we derived multi-decadal climate-driven TWSC grids and used them to interpret drought patterns (1993-2019) over the Amazon basin. The correlations of climate-driven TWSC as compared to GRACE, GRACE Follow-on, and Swarm TWSC are 0.95, 0.92, and 0.77 in Amazon at grid scale (0.5° resolution). The drought patterns assessed by the climate-driven TWSC are consistent to those interpreted by the Palmer Drought Severity Index and GRACE TWSC. We also found that the 1998 and 2016 drought events in Amazon, both induced by the strong El Niño events, show similar drought patterns. This study provides a new perspective for interpreting long-term drought patterns prior to the GRACE period.</span></p>

scholarly journals Analysis of wet and dry season by using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over Java Island

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinta Berliana S. ◽  
Indah Susanti ◽  
Bambang Siswanto ◽  
Amalia Nurlatifah ◽  
Hidayatul Latifah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in Mississippi, USA

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Grala ◽  
William H. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Characteristics ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Forests constitute a large percentage of the total land area in Mississippi and are a vital element of the state economy. Although wildfire occurrences have been considerably reduced since the 1920s, there are still ~4000 wildfires each year in Mississippi burning over 24 000 ha (60 000 acres). This study focusses on recent history and various characteristics of Mississippi wildfires to provide better understanding of spatial and temporal characteristics of wildfires in the state. Geographic information systems and Mississippi Forestry Commission wildfire occurrence data were used to examine relationships between climatic and anthropogenic factors, the incidence, burned area, wildfire cause, and socioeconomic factors. The analysis indicated that wildfires are more frequent in southern Mississippi, in counties covered mostly by pine forest, and are most prominent in the winter–spring season. Proximity to roads and cities were two anthropogenic factors that had the most statistically significant correlation with wildfire occurrence and size. In addition, the validity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index as a measure of fire activity was tested for climatic districts in Mississippi. Analysis indicated that drought influences fire numbers and size during summer and fall (autumn). The strongest relationship between the Palmer Drought Severity Index and burned area was found for the southern climatic districts for the summer–fall season.

scholarly journals Developing Objective Operational Definitions for Monitoring Drought

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 1217-1229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
Water Conservation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Specific Method ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Spatially Variant ◽  
Objective Methodology

Abstract Drought is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to accurately describe because its definition is both spatially variant and context dependent. Decision makers in local, state, and federal agencies commonly use operational drought definitions that are based on specific drought index thresholds to trigger water conservation measures and determine levels of drought assistance. Unfortunately, many state drought plans utilize operational drought definitions that are derived subjectively and therefore may not be appropriate for triggering drought responses. This paper presents an objective methodology for establishing operational drought definitions. The advantages of this methodology are demonstrated by calculating meteorological drought thresholds for the Palmer drought severity index, the standardized precipitation index, and percent of normal precipitation using both station and climate division data from Texas. Results indicate that using subjectively derived operational drought definitions may lead to over- or underestimating true drought severity. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use an objective location-specific method for defining operational drought thresholds.

scholarly journals Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region?*,+

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1339-1354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Pederson ◽  
Andrew R. Bell ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Upmanu Lall ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
City Region ◽  
Water Insecurity ◽  
Current Water

Abstract Six water emergencies have occurred since 1981 for the New York City (NYC) region despite the following: 1) its perhumid climate, 2) substantial conservation of water since 1979, and 3) meteorological data showing little severe or extreme drought since 1970. This study reconstructs 472 years of moisture availability for the NYC watershed to place these emergencies in long-term hydroclimatic context. Using nested reconstruction techniques, 32 tree-ring chronologies comprised of 12 species account for up to 66.2% of the average May–August Palmer drought severity index. Verification statistics indicate good statistical skill from 1531 to 2003. The use of multiple tree species, including rarely used species that can sometimes occur on mesic sites like Liriodendron tulipifera, Betula lenta, and Carya spp., seems to aid reconstruction skill. Importantly, the reconstruction captures pluvial events in the instrumental record nearly as well as drought events and is significantly correlated to precipitation over much of the northeastern United States. While the mid-1960s drought is a severe drought in the context of the new reconstruction, the region experienced repeated droughts of similar intensity, but greater duration during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The full record reveals a trend toward more pluvial conditions since ca. 1800 that is accentuated by an unprecedented 43-yr pluvial event that continues through 2011. In the context of the current pluvial, decreasing water usage, but increasing extra-urban pressures, it appears that the water supply system for the greater NYC region could be severely stressed if the current water boom shifts toward hydroclimatic regimes like the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document