scholarly journals Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 725-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing-Hong Zhang ◽  
Shou-Jun Chen ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo ◽  
Kai-Hon Lau ◽  
Richard A. Anthes
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
State University ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Shallow Clouds

Typhoon Winnie (1997) was the fourth supertyphoon in the western North Pacific in 1997. In its mature stage, an outer eyewall, consisting of deep convection with a diameter of 370 km, was observed by satellite and radar. Within this unusually large outer eyewall existed an inner eyewall, which consisted of a ring of shallow clouds with a diameter of ∼50 km. In this study, Typhoon Winnie is simulated using a nested-grid version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) with an inner grid length of 9 km. The model reproduces an outer cloud eyewall with a diameter of ∼350 km. The simulated radar reflectivity and hourly precipitation are verified with satellite microwave, infrared, and cloud brightness temperature images. Analysis of the model results indicates that the large outer eyewall in many ways possesses the structure of a typical hurricane eyewall. This includes strong tangential winds and radial inflow outside the eyewall as well as an extremely large horizontal wind shear right at the eyewall. The outer eyewall is characterized with a ring of high vorticity (RHV). This RHV is closely related to a ring of high convergence (RHC). This RHC is caused by organized convective systems along the eyewall. The eye simulated by Winnie is characterized by a broad region of warm, dry slowly sinking air. The factors determining the diameter of eyes in tropical cyclones are discussed by considering the scale of the environmental angular momentum and the maximum kinetic energy achieved by parcels of air originating in the environment and reaching the radius of maximum wind. It is hypothesized that the formation of a large eye is favored by large circulations in which parcels of air are drawn in toward the center of the storm from great distances, and trajectories of air in Winnie that support this hypothesis are shown.

scholarly journals A Model Study of Gravity Waves over Hurricane Humberto (2001)

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (10) ◽  
pp. 3231-3246 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Kuester ◽  
M. J. Alexander ◽  
E. A. Ray
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
State University ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Atmospheric Gravity

Atmospheric gravity waves are known to influence global circulations. Understanding these waves and their sources help to develop parameterizations that include their effects in climate and weather forecasting models. Deep convection is believed to be a major source for these waves and hurricanes may be particularly intense sources. Simulations of Hurricane Humberto (2001) are studied using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Humberto is simulated at both tropical storm and hurricane stages. Fourier transform and wavelet analysis are employed to investigate wave characteristics and their behavior in the lower stratosphere. The Fourier analysis gives a regional view of storm affects, whereas wavelet analysis gives a local picture of isolated events. Analysis of the movement of convective sources and local winds gives further insight into the mechanisms that can cause gravity waves. Convectively generated gravity waves are observed in the lower stratosphere of this model with horizontal scales of 15–300 km, vertical scales of 4–8 km, and intrinsic periods of approximately 20–100 min.

scholarly journals Wavelet Support Vector Machines for Forecasting Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones: Comparisons with GSVM, Regression, and MM5

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 438-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chiang Wei
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Gaussian Kernel ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
State University ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Shihmen Reservoir ◽  
Reservoir Watershed ◽  
Lag Times

Abstract This study presents two support vector machine (SVM) based models for forecasting hourly precipitation during tropical cyclone (typhoon) events. The two SVM-based models are the traditional Gaussian kernel SVMs (GSVMs) and the advanced wavelet kernel SVMs (WSVMs). A comparison between the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and statistical models, including SVM-based models and linear regressions (regression), was made in terms of performance of rainfall prediction at the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan. Data from 73 typhoons affecting the Shihmen Reservoir watershed were included in the analysis. This study designed six attribute combinations with different lag times for the forecast target. The modified RMSE, bias, and estimated threat score (ETS) results were employed to assess the predicted outcomes. Results show that better attribute combinations for typhoon climatologic characteristics and typhoon precipitation predictions occurred at 0-h lag time with modified RMSE values of 0.288, 0.257, and 0.296 in GSVM, WSVM, and the regression, respectively. Moreover, WSVM having average bias and ETS values close to 1.0 gave better predictions than did the GSVM and regression models. In addition, Typhoons Zeb (1998) and Nari (2001) were selected for comparison between the MM5 model output and the developed statistical models. Results showed that the MM5 tended to overestimate the peak and cumulative rainfall amounts while the statistical models were inclined to yield underestimations.

scholarly journals A numerical study of cell merger over Cuba – Part I: implementation of the ARPS/MM5 models

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 2781-2792 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Pozo ◽  
I. Borrajero ◽  
J. C. Marín ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Initial Boundary ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Maximum Reflectivity ◽  
Radar Echoes ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Made In

Abstract. On 21 July 2001 a number of severe storms developed over the region of Camaguey, Cuba, which were observed by radar. A numerical simulation was performed in order to realistically reproduce the development of the storms observed that day. The mesoscale model MM5 was used to determine the initial, boundary and update conditions for the storm-scale simulation with the model ARPS. Changes to the source code of ARPS were made in order to assimilate the output from the MM5 as input data and a new land-use file with a 1-km horizontal resolution for the Cuban territory was created. A case representing the merger between cells at different stages of development was correctly reproduced by the simulation and is in good agreement with radar observations. The state of development of each cell, the time when the merger occurred, starting from the formation of clouds, the propagation motion of the cells and the increase in precipitation, due to the growth of the area after the merger, were correctly reproduced. Simulated clouds matched the main characteristics of the observed radar echoes, though in some cases, reflectivity tops and horizontal areas were overestimated. Maximum reflectivity values and the heights where these maximum values were located were in good agreement with radar data, particularly when the model reflectivity was calculated without including the snow. The MM5/ARPS configuration introduced in this study, improved sensibly the ability to simulate convective systems, thereby enhancing the local forecasting of convection in the region.

scholarly journals Numerical Simulations of Seasonal Variations of Rainfall over the Island of Hawaii

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 1219-1232
Author(s):  
Yu-Fen Huang ◽  
Yi-Leng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
State University ◽  
Pennsylvania State University ◽  
Reversed Flow ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Offshore Flow ◽  
Wake Zone

AbstractThe seasonal variations of rainfall over the island of Hawaii are studied using the archives of the daily model run from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) from June 2004 to February 2010. Local effects mainly drive the rainfall on the Kona coast in the early morning and the lower slopes in the afternoon. During the summer, the incoming trade winds are more persistent and moister than in winter. The moisture content in the wake zone is higher than open-ocean values because of the convergent airflow associated with dual counterrotating vortices. As the westerly reversed flow moves toward the Kona coast, it decelerates with increasing moisture and a moisture maximum over the coastal area, especially in the afternoon hours in summer months. The higher afternoon rainfall on the Kona lower slopes in summer than in winter is caused by a moister (>6 mm) westerly reversed flow bringing moisture inland and merging with a stronger upslope flow resulting from solar heating. Higher nocturnal rainfall off the Kona coast in summer than in winter is caused by the low-level convergence between a moister westerly reversed flow and offshore flow. On the windward slopes, the simulated rainfall accumulation in winter is higher because of frequently occurring synoptic disturbances during the winter storm season. Nevertheless, early morning rainfall along the windward coast and afternoon rainfall over the windward slopes of the Kohala Mountains is lower in winter because the incoming trades are drier.

scholarly journals A High-Resolution Simulation of Typhoon Rananim (2004) with MM5. Part I: Model Verification, Inner-Core Shear, and Asymmetric Convection

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (7) ◽  
pp. 2488-2506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingqing Li ◽  
Yihong Duan ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Gang Fu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
State University ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Divergence Pattern

Abstract In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Rananim (2004) at high resolution (2-km grid size). The simulation agrees well with a variety of observations, especially for intensification, maintenance, landfall, and inner-core structures, including the echo-free eye, the asymmetry in eyewall convection, and the slope of the eyewall during landfall. The asymmetric feature of surface winds is also captured reasonably well by the model, as well as changes in surface winds and pressure near the storm center. The shear-induced vortex tilt and storm-relative asymmetric winds are examined to investigate how vertical shear affects the asymmetric convection in the inner-core region. The inner-core vertical shear is found to be nonunidirectional, and to induce a nonunidirectional vortex tilt. The distribution of asymmetric convection is, however, inconsistent with the typical downshear-left pattern for a deep-layer shear. Qualitative agreement is found between the divergence pattern and the storm-relative flow, with convergence (divergence) generally associated with asymmetric inflow (outflow) in the eyewall. The collocation of the inflow-induced lower-level convergence in the boundary layer and the lower troposphere and the midlevel divergence causes shallow updrafts in the western and southern parts of the eyewall, while the deep and strong upward motion in the southeastern portion of the eyewall is due to the collocation of the net convergence associated with the strong asymmetric flow in the midtroposphere and the inflow near 400 hPa and its associated divergence in the outflow layer above 400 hPa.

scholarly journals The Ability of MM5 to Simulate Ice Clouds: Systematic Comparison between Simulated and Measured Fluxes and Lidar/Radar Profiles at the SIRTA Atmospheric Observatory

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 897-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Chiriaco ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
H. Chepfer ◽  
M. Haeffelin ◽  
J. Dudhia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Sedimentation Velocity ◽  
State University ◽  
Pennsylvania State University ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Water Ice ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Profile Inversion ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract The ability of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to simulate midlatitude ice clouds is evaluated. Model outputs are compared to long-term meteorological measurements by active (radar and lidar) and passive (infrared and visible fluxes) remote sensing collected at an atmospheric observatory near Paris, France. The goal is to understand which of four microphysical schemes is best suited to simulate midlatitude ice clouds. The methodology consists of simulating instrument observables from the model outputs without any profile inversion, which allows the authors to use fewer assumptions on microphysical and optical properties of ice particles. Among the four schemes compared in the current study, the best observation-to-simulations scores are obtained with Reisner et al. provided that the particles’ sedimentation velocity from Heymsfield and Donner is used instead of that originally proposed. For this last scheme, the model gives results close to the measurements for clouds with medium optical depth of typically 1 to 3, whatever the season. In this configuration, MM5 simulates the presence of midlatitude ice clouds in more than 65% of the authors’ selection of observed cloud cases. In 35% of the cases, the simulated clouds are too persistent whatever the microphysical scheme and tend to produce too much solid water (ice and snow) and not enough liquid water.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part I: The Organization of Eyewall Vertical Motion

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Braun ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Dynamic Balance ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
State University ◽  
Upward Motion ◽  
Pennsylvania State University ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Hurricane Bonnie

Abstract The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine how vertical wind shear impacts the distribution of vertical motion in the eyewall on both the storm and cloud scale. As in many previous studies, it is found here that the shear produces a wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the time-averaged vertical motion and rainfall. Several mechanisms for this asymmetry are evaluated. The vertical motion asymmetry is qualitatively consistent with an assumed balance between horizontal vorticity advection by the relative flow and stretching of vorticity, with relative asymmetric inflow (convergence) at low levels and outflow (divergence) at upper levels on the downshear side of the eyewall. The simulation results also show that the upward motion portion of the eyewall asymmetry is located in the direction of vortex tilt, consistent with the vertical motion that required to maintain dynamic balance. Variations in the direction and magnitude of the tilt are consistent with the presence of a vortex Rossby wave quasi mode, which is characterized by a damped precession of the upper vortex relative to the lower vortex. While the time-averaged vertical motion is characterized by ascent in a shear-induced wavenumber-1 asymmetry, the instantaneous vertical motion is typically associated with deep updraft towers that generally form on the downtilt-right side of the eyewall and dissipate on the downtilt-left side. The updrafts towers are typically associated with eyewall mesovortices rotating cyclonically around the eyewall and result from an interaction between the shear-induced relative asymmetric flow and the cyclonic circulations of the mesovortices. The eyewall mesovortices may persist for more than one orbit around the eyewall and, in these cases, can initiate multiple episodes of upward motion.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Vertical Velocity Cores in Different Convective Systems Observed over Gadanki, India

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (3) ◽  
pp. 954-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. N. Uma ◽  
T. Narayana Rao
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Air Velocity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Vertical Extent ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
High Level

Abstract The Indian mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar measurements during the passage of 60 convective systems are used to study the vertical air velocity (w) characteristics of tropical convection. The up- and downdraft cores and various stages/types of convection (shallow, deep, and decaying) are discerned from radar time–intensity maps of w. The characteristics of cores (speed, size, orientation, vertical extent, gravity wave activity, etc.) at different stages of convection are discussed with the help of three case studies. The cores stratified based on the type of convection are mostly erect in nature in all types of convective systems, except for deep updraft cores. A considerable percentage (35%) of deep updraft cores show inclined structure with elevation angles as low as 0°–20°. The variation of the horizontal wind field with height and the internal dynamics of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are thought to be responsible for this geometry. Further, the vertical extent of draft cores is limited in all types of convection, except for deep updraft cores. About 77% of deep updraft cores have a vertical extent greater than 10 km and ∼23% of these cores reach an altitude of 16 km. The size (overpass time) of the core shows an increasing trend with altitude up to 10–12 km and then decreases. Among different types of convection, the size of core is larger for deep updraft cores and smaller for shallow updraft cores. The variation of w distribution with height is different for different convection categories. The mode (and also the mean) of the distribution shows low-level descent (below 3 km) and mid–high-level ascent in shallow and deep convection categories, while nearly uniform distribution is seen in decaying convection. Strong updrafts are seen in deep convective systems in the upper troposphere (of the order of 15–20 m s−1), followed by shallow and decaying systems, while downdrafts are generally weaker in all types of convection. The variability (within the cores and also with altitude) and the number of data points are larger in updraft cores than in downdraft cores corresponding to shallow and deep convection. Contrasting the composite w profile at Gadanki with those obtained elsewhere revealed interesting features: the absence of subsidence at higher levels, the presence of low-level subsidence, a single ascent peak in the middle troposphere, etc. Further, the magnitude of composite w derived from wind profiler measurements is larger than that obtained with other techniques.

scholarly journals Objective Bias Correction for Improved Skill in Forecasting Diurnal Cycles of Temperature over Multiple Locations: The Summer Case

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Goswami ◽  
S. Mallick
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
State University ◽  
Pennsylvania State University ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Comprehensive Development ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract One factor that limits skill of the numerical models is the bias in the model forecasts with respect to observations. Similarly, while the mesoscale models today can support horizontal grid spacing down to a few kilometers or fewer, downscaling of model forecasts to arrive at station-scale values will remain a necessary step for many applications. While generic improvement in model skill requires parallel and comprehensive development in model and other forecast methodology, one way of achieving skill in station-scale forecasts without (intensive effort) calibration of the model is to implement an objective bias correction (referred to as debiasing). This study shows that a nonlinear objective debiasing can transform zero-skill forecasts from a mesoscale model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)] to forecasts with significant skill. Twelve locations over India, representing urban sites in different geographical conditions, during May–August 2009 were considered. The model MM5 was integrated for 24 h with initial conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (final) global gridded analysis (FNL) for each of the days of May–August 2009 in a completely operational setting (without assuming any observed information on dynamics beyond the time of the initial condition). It is shown that for all the locations and the four months, the skill of the debiased forecast is significant against essentially zero skill of raw forecasts. The procedure provides an applicable forecast strategy to attain realizable significant skill in station-scale forecasts. Potential skill, derived using in-sample data for calibrating the debiasing parameters, shows promise of further improvement with large samples.

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