scholarly journals A numerical study of cell merger over Cuba – Part I: implementation of the ARPS/MM5 models

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 2781-2792 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Pozo ◽  
I. Borrajero ◽  
J. C. Marín ◽  
G. B. Raga
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Initial Boundary ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Maximum Reflectivity ◽  
Radar Echoes ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Made In

Abstract. On 21 July 2001 a number of severe storms developed over the region of Camaguey, Cuba, which were observed by radar. A numerical simulation was performed in order to realistically reproduce the development of the storms observed that day. The mesoscale model MM5 was used to determine the initial, boundary and update conditions for the storm-scale simulation with the model ARPS. Changes to the source code of ARPS were made in order to assimilate the output from the MM5 as input data and a new land-use file with a 1-km horizontal resolution for the Cuban territory was created. A case representing the merger between cells at different stages of development was correctly reproduced by the simulation and is in good agreement with radar observations. The state of development of each cell, the time when the merger occurred, starting from the formation of clouds, the propagation motion of the cells and the increase in precipitation, due to the growth of the area after the merger, were correctly reproduced. Simulated clouds matched the main characteristics of the observed radar echoes, though in some cases, reflectivity tops and horizontal areas were overestimated. Maximum reflectivity values and the heights where these maximum values were located were in good agreement with radar data, particularly when the model reflectivity was calculated without including the snow. The MM5/ARPS configuration introduced in this study, improved sensibly the ability to simulate convective systems, thereby enhancing the local forecasting of convection in the region.

Comparison of Simulated and Observed Continental Tropical Anvil Clouds and Their Radiative Heating Profiles

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 2662-2681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott W. Powell ◽  
Robert A. Houze ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Sally A. McFarlane
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ◽  
Stringent Test ◽  
Heating Profiles

Abstract Vertically pointing millimeter-wavelength radar observations of anvil clouds extending from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that pass over an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) field site in Niamey, Niger, are compared to anvil structures generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model using six different microphysical schemes. The radar data provide the statistical distribution of the radar reflectivity values as a function of height and anvil thickness. These statistics are compared to the statistics of the modeled anvil cloud reflectivity at all altitudes. Requiring the model to be statistically accurate at all altitudes is a stringent test of the model performance. The typical vertical profile of radiative heating in the anvil clouds is computed from the radar observations. Variability of anvil structures from the different microphysical schemes provides an estimate of the inherent uncertainty in anvil radiative heating profiles. All schemes underestimate the optical thickness of thin anvils and cirrus, resulting in a bias of excessive net anvil heating in all of the simulations.

scholarly journals The Tornadic Supercell on the Kanto Plain on 6 May 2012: Polarimetric Radar and Surface Data Assimilation with EnKF and Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (9) ◽  
pp. 3133-3157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Yokota ◽  
Hiromu Seko ◽  
Masaru Kunii ◽  
Hiroshi Yamauchi ◽  
Hiroshi Niino
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Spatial Density ◽  
Low Level

A tornadic supercell and associated low-level mesocyclone (LMC) observed on the Kanto Plain, Japan, on 6 May 2012 were predicted with a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model with a horizontal resolution of 350 m through assimilation of surface meteorological data (horizontal wind, temperature, and relative humidity) of high spatial density and C-band Doppler radar data (radial velocity and rainwater estimated from reflectivity and specific differential phase) with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter. With assimilation of both surface and radar data, a strong LMC was successfully predicted near the path of the actual tornado. When either surface or radar data were not assimilated, however, the LMC was not predicted. Therefore, both surface and radar data were essential for successful LMC forecasts. The factors controlling the strength of the predicted LMC, defined as a low-level maximum vertical vorticity, were clarified by an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis (ESA), which is a new approach for analyzing LMC intensification. The ESA showed that the strength of the LMC was sensitive to low-level convergence forward of the storm and to low-level relative humidity in the rear of the storm. Therefore, the correction of these low-level variables by assimilation of dense observations was found to be particularly important for forecasting and monitoring the LMC in the present case.

Characteristics of Precipitating Convective Systems Accounting for the Summer Rainfall of Tropical and Subtropical South America

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Romatschke ◽  
Robert A. Houze
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
South Atlantic Convergence Zone ◽  
Horizontal Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Radar Echoes

Abstract Ten years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar data are used to study the physical properties of the precipitating cloud systems that account for the summer rainfall of tropical and subtropical South America. Radar echoes in the continental subtropics tend to be of an intensely convective nature, especially at the eastern foothills of the Andes where diurnally forced deep convective cells of small horizontal scale form when moist low-level flow is driven toward the foothills in connection with a midlatitude disturbance. As the disturbance moves east over the La Plata basin, nocturnal convective systems of larger horizontal scale with wide stratiform regions occur in a zone of general convergence. Precipitation in the continental tropics is generally produced by convective systems with greater stratiform composition. At the northeastern foothills of the central Andes, radar echoes of nocturnal convective systems of medium to large horizontal scale occur where moist low-level flow is lifted over the foothills. Growth of systems to large size is inhibited by daytime divergence at the foothills. Over the Amazon basin, daytime systems are also smaller than nocturnal systems. Radar echoes of precipitation over the Brazilian Highlands are generally smaller in horizontal scale, more convective, and mostly occur during the afternoon over elevated terrain. In the oceanic South Atlantic convergence zone, radar echoes grow to extremely large sizes. They are highly stratiform in nature and occur during all times of the day except late evening when convergence is weakened as a response to continental heating.

scholarly journals Impact of Model Resolution and Initial/Boundary Conditions in Forecasting Flood-Causing Precipitations

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 592
Author(s):  
Francesco Ferrari ◽  
Federico Cassola ◽  
Peter Enos Tuju ◽  
Alessandro Stocchino ◽  
Paolo Brotto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Initial Boundary ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Topographic Effects ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
The Impact

In late summer and autumn Mediterranean coastal regions are quite regularly affected by small-scale, flood-producing convective systems. The complexity of mesoscale triggering mechanisms, related to low-level temperature gradients, moisture convergence, and topographic effects contributes to limit the predictability of such phenomena. In the present work, a severe convection episode associated to a flash flood occurred in Cannes (southern France) in October 2015, is investigated by means of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. In the modelling configuration operational at the University of Genoa precipitation maxima were underestimated and misplaced. The impact of model resolution as well as initial and boundary conditions on the quantitative precipitation forecasts is analyzed and discussed. In particular, the effect of ingesting a high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature field is proven to be beneficial in terms of precipitation intensity and localization, especially when also associated with the most accurate lateral boundary conditions.

Maintenance of a Mountain Valley Cold Pool: A Numerical Study

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (8) ◽  
pp. 2266-2278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Billings ◽  
Vanda Grubišić ◽  
Randolph D. Borys
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Temperature Structure ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Horizontal Diffusion ◽  
Terrain Following

Abstract A persistent cold-air pool in the Yampa Valley of northwestern Colorado was simulated with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The observed cold-air pool, which was identified by temperature measurements along a line of surface stations ascending the eastern side of the valley, remained in place throughout the day of 10 January 2004. The baseline simulation with horizontal resolution of 1 km, which is close to the resolution of operational regional mesoscale model forecasts, neither matched the strength of the observed cold-air pool nor retained the cold pool throughout the day. Varying the PBL parameterization, increasing the vertical resolution, and increasing the model spinup time did not significantly improve the results. However, the inclusion of snow cover, increased horizontal resolution, and an improved treatment of horizontal diffusion did have a sizable effect on the forecast quality. The snow cover in the baseline simulation was essential for preventing the diurnal heating from eroding the cold pool, but was only sufficient to produce a nearly isothermal temperature structure within the valley, largely because of an increased reflection of solar radiation. The increase of horizontal resolution to 333 and 111 m resulted in a stronger cold-air pool and its retention throughout the day. In addition to improving the resolution of flow features in steep terrain, resulting in, for example, less drainage out of the valley, the increase in horizontal resolution led to a better forecast because of a reduced magnitude of horizontal diffusion calculated along the terrain-following model surfaces. Calculating horizontal diffusion along the constant height levels had a beneficial impact on the quality of the simulations, producing effects similar to those achieved by increasing the horizontal resolution, but at a fraction of the computational cost.

scholarly journals Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 725-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing-Hong Zhang ◽  
Shou-Jun Chen ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo ◽  
Kai-Hon Lau ◽  
Richard A. Anthes
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
State University ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Shallow Clouds

Typhoon Winnie (1997) was the fourth supertyphoon in the western North Pacific in 1997. In its mature stage, an outer eyewall, consisting of deep convection with a diameter of 370 km, was observed by satellite and radar. Within this unusually large outer eyewall existed an inner eyewall, which consisted of a ring of shallow clouds with a diameter of ∼50 km. In this study, Typhoon Winnie is simulated using a nested-grid version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) with an inner grid length of 9 km. The model reproduces an outer cloud eyewall with a diameter of ∼350 km. The simulated radar reflectivity and hourly precipitation are verified with satellite microwave, infrared, and cloud brightness temperature images. Analysis of the model results indicates that the large outer eyewall in many ways possesses the structure of a typical hurricane eyewall. This includes strong tangential winds and radial inflow outside the eyewall as well as an extremely large horizontal wind shear right at the eyewall. The outer eyewall is characterized with a ring of high vorticity (RHV). This RHV is closely related to a ring of high convergence (RHC). This RHC is caused by organized convective systems along the eyewall. The eye simulated by Winnie is characterized by a broad region of warm, dry slowly sinking air. The factors determining the diameter of eyes in tropical cyclones are discussed by considering the scale of the environmental angular momentum and the maximum kinetic energy achieved by parcels of air originating in the environment and reaching the radius of maximum wind. It is hypothesized that the formation of a large eye is favored by large circulations in which parcels of air are drawn in toward the center of the storm from great distances, and trajectories of air in Winnie that support this hypothesis are shown.

The Use of a Modified Ebert–McBride Technique to Evaluate Mesoscale Model QPF as a Function of Convective System Morphology during IHOP 2002

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Grams ◽  
Willam A. Gallus ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Linda S. Wharton ◽  
Andrew Loughe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
Average Rain

Abstract The Ebert–McBride technique (EMT) is an entity-oriented method useful for quantitative precipitation verification. The EMT was modified to optimize its ability to identify contiguous rain areas (CRAs) during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP). This technique was then used to identify systematic sources of error as a function of observed convective system morphology in three 12-km model simulations run over the IHOP domain: Eta, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The EMT was fine-tuned to optimize the pattern matching of forecasts to observations for the scales of precipitation systems observed during IHOP. To investigate several error measures provided by the EMT, a detailed morphological analysis of observed systems was performed using radar data for all CRAs identified in the IHOP domain. The modified EMT suggests that the Eta Model produced average rain rates, peak rainfall amounts, and total rain volumes that were lower than observed for almost all types of convective systems, likely because of its production of overly smoothed and low-variability quantitative precipitation forecasts. The MM5 and WRF typically produced average rain rates and peak rainfall amounts that were larger than observed in most linear convective systems. However, the rain volume for these models was too low for almost all types of convective systems, implying a sizeable underestimate in areal coverage. All three models forecast rainfall too far northwest for linear systems. The results for the WRF and MM5 are consistent with previous observations of mesoscale models run with explicit microphysics and no convective parameterization scheme, suggesting systematic problems with the prediction of mesoscale convective system cold pool dynamics.

An Efficient Dual-Resolution Approach for Ensemble Data Assimilation and Tests with Simulated Doppler Radar Data

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 945-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Velocity Data ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Cross Covariance ◽  
Radial Velocity Data

Abstract A new efficient dual-resolution (DR) data assimilation algorithm is developed based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method and tested using simulated radar radial velocity data for a supercell storm. Radar observations are assimilated on both high-resolution and lower-resolution grids using the EnKF algorithm with flow-dependent background error covariances estimated from the lower-resolution ensemble. It is shown that the flow-dependent and dynamically evolved background error covariances thus estimated are effective in producing quality analyses on the high-resolution grid. The DR method has the advantage of being able to significantly reduce the computational cost of the EnKF analysis. In the system, the lower-resolution ensemble provides the flow-dependent background error covariance, while the single-high-resolution forecast and analysis provides the benefit of higher resolution, which is important for resolving the internal structures of thunderstorms. The relative smoothness of the covariance obtained from the lower 4-km-resolution ensemble does not appear to significantly degrade the quality of analysis. This is because the cross covariance among different variables is of first-order importance for “retrieving” unobserved variables from the radar radial velocity data. For the DR analysis, an ensemble size of 40 appears to be a reasonable choice with the use of a 4-km horizontal resolution in the ensemble and a 1-km resolution in the high-resolution analysis. Several sensitivity tests show that the DR EnKF system is quite robust to different observation errors. A 4-km thinned data resolution is a compromise that is acceptable under the constraint of real-time applications. A data density of 8 km leads to a significant degradation in the analysis.

scholarly journals An approach to the modeling of a virtual thermal manikin

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1413-1423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan Ruzic ◽  
Sinisa Bikic
Keyword(s):  
Turbulence Models ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Thermal Manikin ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Body Segments ◽  
Nominal Size ◽  
Natural Flow ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Made In

The aim of the research described in this paper, is to make a virtual thermal manikin that would be simple, but also robust and reliable. The virtual thermal manikin was made in order to investigate thermal conditions inside vehicle cabins. The main parameters of the presented numerical model that were investigated in this paper are mesh characteristics and turbulence models. Heat fluxes on the manikin's body segments obtained from the simulations were compared with published results, from three different experiments done on physical thermal manikins. The presented virtual thermal manikin, meshed with surface elements of 0.035 m in nominal size (around 13,600 surface elements) and in conjunction with the two-layer RANS Realizable k-? turbulence model, had generally good agreement with experimental data in both forced and natural flow conditions.

NAM Model Forecasts of Warm-Season Quasi-Stationary Frontal Environments in the Central United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 1281-1292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shih-Yu Wang ◽  
Adam J. Clark
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States

Abstract Using a composite procedure, North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) forecast and observed environments associated with zonally oriented, quasi-stationary surface fronts for 64 cases during July–August 2006–08 were examined for a large region encompassing the central United States. NAM adequately simulated the general synoptic features associated with the frontal environments (e.g., patterns in the low-level wind fields) as well as the positions of the fronts. However, kinematic fields important to frontogenesis such as horizontal deformation and convergence were overpredicted. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water were also overpredicted, which was likely related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields through convergence of water vapor flux. In addition, a spurious coherence between forecast deformation and precipitation was found using spatial correlation coefficients. Composite precipitation forecasts featured a broad area of rainfall stretched parallel to the composite front, whereas the composite observed precipitation covered a smaller area and had a WNW–ESE orientation relative to the front, consistent with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) propagating at a slight right angle relative to the thermal gradient. Thus, deficiencies in the NAM precipitation forecasts may at least partially result from the inability to depict MCSs properly. It was observed that errors in the precipitation forecasts appeared to lag those of the kinematic fields, and so it seems likely that deficiencies in the precipitation forecasts are related to the overprediction of the kinematic fields such as deformation. However, no attempts were made to establish whether the overpredicted kinematic fields actually contributed to the errors in the precipitation forecasts or whether the overpredicted kinematic fields were simply an artifact of the precipitation errors. Regardless of the relationship between such errors, recognition of typical warm-season environments associated with these errors should be useful to operational forecasters.

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