scholarly journals Cold-Season Tornadoes: Climatological and Meteorological Insights

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 671-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel J. Childs ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
John T. Allen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Bull's Eye ◽  
Convective Mode

Abstract Tornadoes that occur during the cold season, defined here as November–February (NDJF), pose many societal risks, yet less attention has been given to their climatological trends and variability than their warm-season counterparts, and their meteorological environments have been studied relatively recently. This study aims to advance the current state of knowledge of cold-season tornadoes through analysis of these components. A climatology of all (E)F1–(E)F5 NDJF tornadoes from 1953 to 2015 across a domain of 25°–42.5°N, 75°–100°W was developed. An increasing trend in cold-season tornado occurrence was found across much of the southeastern United States, with a bull’s-eye in western Tennessee, while a decreasing trend was found across eastern Oklahoma. Spectral analysis reveals a cyclic pattern of enhanced NDJF counts every 3–7 years, coincident with the period of ENSO. La Niña episodes favor enhanced NDJF counts, but a stronger relationship was found with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). From a meteorological standpoint, the most-tornadic and least-tornadic NDJF seasons were compared using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data of various severe weather and tornado parameters. The most-tornadic cold seasons are characterized by warm and moist conditions across the Southeast, with an anomalous mean trough across the western United States. In addition, analysis of the convective mode reveals that NDJF tornadoes are common in both discrete and linear storm modes, yet those associated with discrete supercells are more deadly. Taken together, the perspectives presented here provide a deeper understanding of NDJF tornadoes and their societal impacts, an understanding that serves to increase public awareness and reduce human casualty.

scholarly journals Interaction between the MJO and Polar Circulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3562-3574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Flatau ◽  
Young-Joon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract A tropical–polar connection and its seasonal dependence are examined using the real-time multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index and daily indices for the annular modes, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). On the intraseasonal time scale, the MJO appears to force the annular modes in both hemispheres. On this scale, during the cold season, the convection in the Indian Ocean precedes the increase of the AO/AAO. Interestingly, during the boreal winter (Southern Hemisphere warm season), strong MJOs in the Indian Ocean are related to a decrease of the AAO index, and AO/AAO tendencies are out of phase. On the longer time scales, a persistent AO/AAO anomaly appears to influence the convection in the tropical belt and impact the distribution of MJO-preferred phases. It is shown that this may be a result of the sea surface temperature (SST) changes related to a persistent AO, with cooling over the Indian Ocean and warming over Indonesia. In the Southern Hemisphere, the SST anomalies are to some extent also related to a persistent AAO pattern, but this relationship is much weaker and appears only during the Southern Hemisphere cold season. On the basis of these results, a mechanism involving the air–sea interaction in the tropics is suggested as a possible link between persistent AO and convective activity in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

scholarly journals Dynamics, Variability, and Change in Seasonal Precipitation Reconstructions for North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3173-3195 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. Stahle ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Dorian J. Burnette ◽  
Max C. A. Torbenson ◽  
Ian M. Howard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
North American ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

AbstractCool- and warm-season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December–April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May–July totals. These discrete seasonal chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season; the December–April reconstructions are skillful over most of the southern and western United States and north-central Mexico, and the May–July estimates have skill over most of the United States, southwestern Canada, and northeastern Mexico. Both the strong continent-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool-season reconstructions and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm-season estimates faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean–atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the sixteenth-century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500 years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts, each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Significant 200–500-yr-long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool- and warm-season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the eastern area that began as a result of natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Ice-Breaking Fleets of the United States and Canada: Assessing the Current State of Affairs and Future Plans

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 703
Author(s):  
Megan Drewniak ◽  
Dimitrios Dalaklis ◽  
Anastasia Christodoulou ◽  
Rebecca Sheehan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Northwest Passage ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Ice Coverage ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Of Affairs

In recent years, a continuous decline of ice-coverage in the Arctic has been recorded, but these high latitudes are still dominated by earth’s polar ice cap. Therefore, safe and sustainable shipping operations in this still frozen region have as a precondition the availability of ice-breaking support. The analysis in hand provides an assessment of the United States’ and Canada’s polar ice-breaking program with the purpose of examining to what extent these countries’ relevant resources are able to meet the facilitated growth of industrial interests in the High North. This assessment will specifically focus on the maritime transportation sector along the Northwest Passage and consists of four main sections. The first provides a very brief description of the main Arctic passages. The second section specifically explores the current situation of the Northwest Passage, including the relevant navigational challenges, lack of infrastructure, available routes that may be used for transit, potential choke points, and current state of vessel activity along these routes. The third one examines the economic viability of the Northwest Passage compared to that of the Panama Canal; the fourth and final section is investigating the current and future capabilities of the United States’ and Canada’s ice-breaking fleet. Unfortunately, both countries were found to be lacking the necessary assets with ice-breaking capabilities and will need to accelerate their efforts in order to effectively respond to the growing needs of the Arctic. The total number of available ice-breaking assets is impacting negatively the level of support by the marine transportation system of both the United States and Canada; these two countries are facing the possibility to be unable to effectively meet the expected future needs because of the lengthy acquisition and production process required for new ice-breaking fleets.

scholarly journals Temperature and Relative Humidity Profile Retrieval from Fengyun-3D/HIRAS in the Arctic Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1884
Author(s):  
Jingjing Hu ◽  
Yansong Bao ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
George P. Petropoulos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
The Arctic Region

The acquisition of real-time temperature and relative humidity (RH) profiles in the Arctic is of great significance for the study of the Arctic’s climate and Arctic scientific research. However, the operational algorithm of Fengyun-3D only takes into account areas within 60°N, the innovation of this work is that a new technique based on Neural Network (NN) algorithm was proposed, which can retrieve these parameters in real time from the Fengyun-3D Hyperspectral Infrared Radiation Atmospheric Sounding (HIRAS) observations in the Arctic region. Considering the difficulty of obtaining a large amount of actual observation (such as radiosonde) in the Arctic region, collocated ERA5 data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and HIRAS observations were used to train the neural networks (NNs). Brightness temperature and training targets were classified using two variables: season (warm season and cold season) and surface type (ocean and land). NNs-based retrievals were compared with ERA5 data and radiosonde observations (RAOBs) independent of the NN training sets. Results showed that (1) the NNs retrievals accuracy is generally higher on warm season and ocean; (2) the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of retrieved profiles is generally slightly higher in the RAOB comparisons than in the ERA5 comparisons, but the variation trend of errors with height is consistent; (3) the retrieved profiles by the NN method are closer to ERA5, comparing with the AIRS products. All the results demonstrated the potential value in time and space of NN algorithm in retrieving temperature and relative humidity profiles of the Arctic region from HIRAS observations under clear-sky conditions. As such, the proposed NN algorithm provides a valuable pathway for retrieving reliably temperature and RH profiles from HIRAS observations in the Arctic region, providing information of practical value in a wide spectrum of practical applications and research investigations alike.All in all, our work has important implications in broadening Fengyun-3D’s operational implementation range from within 60°N to the Arctic region.

scholarly journals Annual cycles of organochlorine pesticide enantiomers in Arctic air suggest changing sources and pathways

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1411-1420 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. F. Bidleman ◽  
L. M. Jantunen ◽  
H. Hung ◽  
J. Ma ◽  
G. A. Stern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Secondary Emission ◽  
Air Monitoring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
Digital Filtration ◽  
Peak Areas

Abstract. Air samples collected during 1994–2000 at the Canadian Arctic air monitoring station Alert (82°30' N, 62°20' W) were analysed by enantiospecific gas chromatography–mass spectrometry for α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH), trans-chlordane (TC) and cis-chlordane (CC). Results were expressed as enantiomer fractions (EF = peak areas of (+)/[(+) + (−)] enantiomers), where EFs = 0.5, < 0.5 and > 0.5 indicate racemic composition, and preferential depletion of (+) and (−) enantiomers, respectively. Long-term average EFs were close to racemic values for α -HCH (0.504 ± 0.004, n = 197) and CC (0.505 ± 0.004, n = 162), and deviated farther from racemic for TC (0.470 ± 0.013, n = 165). Digital filtration analysis revealed annual cycles of lower α-HCH EFs in summer–fall and higher EFs in winter–spring. These cycles suggest volatilization of partially degraded α-HCH with EF < 0.5 from open water and advection to Alert during the warm season, and background transport of α-HCH with EF > 0.5 during the cold season. The contribution of sea-volatilized α-HCH was only 11% at Alert, vs. 32% at Resolute Bay (74.68° N, 94.90° W) in 1999. EFs of TC also followed annual cycles of lower and higher values in the warm and cold seasons. These were in phase with low and high cycles of the TC/CC ratio (expressed as FTC = TC/(TC+CC)), which suggests greater contribution of microbially "weathered" TC in summer–fall versus winter–spring. CC was closer to racemic than TC and displayed seasonal cycles only in 1997–1998. EF profiles are likely to change with rising contribution of secondary emission sources, weathering of residues in the environment, and loss of ice cover in the Arctic. Enantiomer-specific analysis could provide added forensic capability to air monitoring programs.

scholarly journals Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1019-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liisi Jakobson ◽  
Erko Jakobson ◽  
Piia Post ◽  
Jaak Jaagus
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Temperature ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Mild Winter ◽  
Baltic Sea Region ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Eastern Baltic

Abstract. The teleconnections between meteorological parameters of the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions were analysed based on the NCEP-CFSR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2015. The eastern Baltic Sea region was characterised by meteorological values at a testing point (TP) in southern Estonia (58° N, 26° E). Temperature at the 1000 hPa level at the TP have a strong negative correlation with the Greenland sector (the region between 55–80° N and 20–80° W) during all seasons except summer. Significant teleconnections are present in temperature profiles from 1000 to 500 hPa. The strongest teleconnections between the same parameter at the eastern Baltic Sea region and the Arctic are found in winter, but they are clearly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. After removal of the AO index variability, correlations in winter were below ±0.5, while in other seasons there remained regions with strong (|R| > 0.5, p < 0.002) correlations. Strong correlations (|R| > 0.5) are also present between different climate variables (sea-level pressure, specific humidity, wind speed) at the TP and different regions of the Arctic. These teleconnections cannot be explained solely with the variability of circulation indices. The positive temperature anomaly of mild winter at the Greenland sector shifts towards east during the next seasons, reaching the Baltic Sea region in summer. This evolution is present at 60 and 65° N but is missing at higher latitudes. The most permanent lagged correlations in 1000 hPa temperature reveal that the temperature in summer at the TP is strongly predestined by temperature in the Greenland sector in the previous spring and winter.

scholarly journals Biannual cycles of organochlorine pesticide enantiomers in arctic air suggest changing sources and pathways

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 25027-25050
Author(s):  
T. F. Bidleman ◽  
L. M. Jantunen ◽  
H. Hung ◽  
J. Ma ◽  
G. A. Stern ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Secondary Emission ◽  
Air Monitoring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Digital Filtration ◽  
Specific Analysis

Abstract. Air samples collected during 1994–2000 at the Canadian arctic air monitoring station Alert (82°30' N, 62°20' W) were analyzed by enantiospecific gas chromatography – mass spectrometry for α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH), trans-chlordane (TC) and cis-chlordane (CC). Results were expressed as enantiomer fractions (EF = quantities of (+)/[(+) + (−)] enantiomers), where EFs = 0.5, <0.5 and >0.5 indicate racemic composition, and preferential depletion of (+) and (−) enantiomers, respectively. Long-term average EFs were close to racemic values for α-HCH (0.504 ± 0.004, n = 197) and CC (0.505 ± 0.004, n = 162), and deviated farther from racemic for TC (0.470 ± 0.013, n = 165). Digital filtration analysis revealed biannual cycles of lower α-HCH EFs in summer-fall and higher EFs in winter-spring. These cycles suggest volatilization of partially degraded α-HCH with EF < 0.5 from open water and advection to Alert during the warm season, and background transport of α-HCH with EF > 0.5 during the cold season. The contribution of sea-volatilized α-HCH was only 11% at Alert, vs. 32% at Resolute Bay (74.68° N, 94.90° W) in 1999. EFs of TC also followed biannual cycles of lower and higher values in the warm and cold seasons. These were in phase with low and high cycles of the TC/CC ratio (expressed as FTC = TC/(TC + CC)), which suggests greater contribution of microbially "weathered" TC in summer-fall vs. winter-spring. CC was closer to racemic than TC and displayed seasonal cycles only in 1997–1998. EF profiles are likely to change with rising contribution of secondary emission sources, weathering of residues in the environment, and loss of ice cover in the Arctic. Enantiomer-specific analysis could provide added forensic capability to air monitoring programs.

scholarly journals Precipitation Extremes: Trends and Relationships with Average Precipitation and Precipitable Water in the Contiguous United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Thomas R. Karl ◽  
Michael F. Squires ◽  
Xungang Yin ◽  
Steve T. Stegall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rocky Mountains ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Average Precipitation

AbstractTrends of extreme precipitation (EP) using various combinations of average return intervals (ARIs) of 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 years with durations of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, and 30 days were calculated regionally across the contiguous United States. Changes in the sign of the trend of EP vary by region as well as by ARI and duration, despite the statistically significant upward trends for all combinations of EP thresholds when area averaged across the contiguous United States. Spatially, there is a pronounced east-to-west gradient in the trends of the EP with strong upward trends east of the Rocky Mountains. In general, upward trends are larger and more significant for longer ARIs, but the contribution to the trend in total seasonal and annual precipitation is significantly larger for shorter ARIs because they occur more frequently. Across much of the contiguous United States, upward trends of warm-season EP are substantially larger than those for the cold season and have a substantially greater effect on the annual trend in total precipitation. This result occurs even in areas where the total precipitation is nearly evenly divided between the cold and warm seasons. When compared with short-duration events, long-duration events—for example, 30 days—contribute the most to annual trends. Coincident statistically significant upward trends of EP and precipitable water (PW) occur in many regions, especially during the warm season. Increases in PW are likely to be one of several factors responsible for the increase in EP (and average total precipitation) observed in many areas across the contiguous United States.

scholarly journals Comparison of the GPCP 1DD Precipitation Product and NEXRAD Q2 Precipitation Estimates over the Continental United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1837-1853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Cui ◽  
Xiquan Dong ◽  
Baike Xi ◽  
Ronald Stenz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
Mean Differences

Abstract This study compares the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1 Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation estimates over the continental United States (CONUS) with National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ) Next Generation (Q2) estimates. Spatial averages of monthly and yearly accumulated precipitation were computed based on daily estimates from six selected regions during the period 2010–12. Both Q2 and GPCP daily precipitation estimates show that precipitation amounts over southern regions (&lt;40°N) are generally larger than northern regions (≥40°N). Correlation coefficients for daily estimates over selected regions range from 0.355 to 0.516 with mean differences (GPCP − Q2) varying from −0.86 to 0.99 mm. Better agreements are found in monthly estimates with the correlations varying from 0.635 to 0.787. For spatially averaged precipitation values averaged from grid boxes within selected regions, GPCP and Q2 estimates are well correlated, especially for monthly accumulated precipitation, with strong correlations ranging from 0.903 to 0.954. The comparisons between two datasets are also conducted for warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. During the warm season, GPCP estimates are 9.7% less than Q2 estimates, while during the cold season GPCP estimates exceed Q2 estimates by 6.9%. For precipitation over the CONUS, although annual means are close (978.54 for Q2 vs 941.79 mm for GPCP), Q2 estimates are much larger than GPCP over the central and southern United States and less than GPCP estimates in the northeastern United States. These results suggest that Q2 may have difficulties accurately estimating heavy rain and snow events, while GPCP may have an inability to capture some intense precipitation events, which warrants further investigation.

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