Use of Risk Assessments in Pretrial Supervision Decision-Making and Associated Outcomes

2021 ◽  
pp. 001112872110226
Author(s):  
Evan M. Lowder ◽  
Chelsea M. A. Foudray
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Electronic Monitoring ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Reform Strategies ◽  
Retrospective Investigation

Despite the growing use of both pretrial risk assessment and supervision as pretrial reform strategies, there has been limited investigation on the effectiveness of risk assessment-informed pretrial supervision. We conducted a multi-site, retrospective investigation in 1,505 pretrial defendants from four local jurisdictions to examine risk assessment-informed pretrial supervision decisions and associated pretrial misconduct outcomes. Our findings showed pretrial supervision decisions were generally consistent with structured guidelines and defendant risk classifications. Use of bond and electronic monitoring had little impact on pretrial misconduct. However, more frequent pretrial monitoring was associated with higher rates of pretrial misconduct across all risk levels. Reducing supervision conditions and monitoring for low-risk defendants, in particular, may help reduce rates of misconduct in pretrial populations.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

Stochastic Methods for Estimation and Problem Solving in Engineering

2018 ◽  
pp. 139-160
Author(s):  
Tetiana Shmelova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Navigation Systems ◽  
International Civil Aviation Organization ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Professional Activities

In this chapter, the author presents stochastic methods in aviation. The stochastic methods are presented as methods of decision making (DM) of operators of air navigation systems (ANS) in risk and uncertainly. The ANS is presented as a socio-technical system (STS). Analysis influences the factors of professional and non-professional activities on DM of STS's operators. The author made an analysis of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) documents on risk assessment. To determine the quantitative characteristics of risk levels, models for DM by the operator of the aviation system under risk and uncertainty have been developed. The author demonstrates some interesting advantages offered by the new methodology of DM in STS and forecasting the behavior of the operator in an emergency situation (ES) for using models of DM in risk and uncertainty.

A Review of the Validity of Juvenile Risk Assessment Across Race/Ethnicity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Campbell ◽  
William Miller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Ethnic Minorities ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Racial Ethnic

Juvenile risk assessment instruments have provided juvenile courts with the opportunity to make standardized decisions concerning sentences and intervention needs. Risk assessments have replaced the reliance on professional decision-making practices in which court officials relied on their hunches or previous experience to determine what to do with youth once they became involved in corrections. A primary goal of juvenile risk assessment is to improve case management and help courts focus resources on juveniles who exhibit the greatest intervention needs. Further, juvenile risk assessments play a critical role in estimating which juveniles will likely reoffend by identifying factors that increase the propensity of future offending. Although some researchers believe that the implementation of standardized juvenile risk assessments is a good strategy for reducing biased decision-making for racial/ethnic minorities, other researchers have called into question the extent to which risk assessments overestimate risk for certain juveniles, especially those in minority groups who have a history of being marginalized due to their race, culture, or ethnicity. This article provides an overview of how well juvenile risk assessment instruments predict future delinquency across race and ethnicity. The review suggests that in general, risk assessments do a good job in predicting recidivism across racial/ethnic groups for diverse populations inside and outside the United States. However, there is still some room for improvement concerning the assessment of risk and needs for ethnic minorities. In addition, while there are some studies that do not report the predictive validity of risk assessment scores across race/ethnicity, risk assessments overall seem to be a promising effort to correctly classify and/or identify juveniles who are at greatest risk for future recidivism.

Sex Offender Risk Assessments in the Child Protection Context. Helpful or Not?

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Broadley
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Abuse ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

When a convicted or alleged child sex offender is living, or having contact, with his own children or stepchildren, the obvious worry is that these children are victims or will become victims of sexual abuse. One way of determining the risk of this occurring is for the convicted or alleged offender to undergo a forensic sex offender risk assessment. In this article I raise questions regarding the usefulness of sex offender risk assessments within the statutory child protection context. Most importantly, I ask whether static and dynamic risk assessment instruments can accurately predict the risk an alleged or convicted sex offender poses to his own children. I conclude that ‘high’, ‘moderate’, and ‘low’ risk outcomes of forensic sex offender risk assessments in the child protection context are unreliable and can result in error, and explain that these errors have consequences that, within the child protection context, have consequences that can be dangerous to children.

scholarly journals New Elements To Consider When Modeling the Hazards Associated with Botulinum Neurotoxin in Food

2015 ◽  
Vol 198 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adaoha E. C. Ihekwaba ◽  
Ivan Mura ◽  
Pradeep K. Malakar ◽  
John Walshaw ◽  
Michael W. Peck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Health Hazard ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Rare Condition ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Cranial Nerve Palsies

Botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) produced by the anaerobic bacteriumClostridium botulinumare the most potent biological substances known to mankind. BoNTs are the agents responsible for botulism, a rare condition affecting the neuromuscular junction and causing a spectrum of diseases ranging from mild cranial nerve palsies to acute respiratory failure and death. BoNTs are a potential biowarfare threat and a public health hazard, since outbreaks of foodborne botulism are caused by the ingestion of preformed BoNTs in food. Currently, mathematical models relating to the hazards associated withC. botulinum, which are largely empirical, make major contributions to botulinum risk assessment. Evaluated using statistical techniques, these models simulate the response of the bacterium to environmental conditions. Though empirical models have been successfully incorporated into risk assessments to support food safety decision making, this process includes significant uncertainties so that relevant decision making is frequently conservative and inflexible. Progression involves encoding into the models cellular processes at a molecular level, especially the details of the genetic and molecular machinery. This addition drives the connection between biological mechanisms and botulism risk assessment and hazard management strategies. This review brings together elements currently described in the literature that will be useful in building quantitative models ofC. botulinumneurotoxin production. Subsequently, it outlines how the established form of modeling could be extended to include these new elements. Ultimately, this can offer further contributions to risk assessments to support food safety decision making.

Initiating and Managing Risk Assessments within a Risk Analysis Framework: FDA/CFSAN'S Practical Approach

2004 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2058-2062 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT L. BUCHANAN ◽  
SHERRI DENNIS ◽  
MARIANNE MILIOTIS
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Risk Managers ◽  
The U.S

Management of risk analysis involves the integration and coordination of activities associated with risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk analysis is used to guide regulatory decision making, including trade decisions at national and international levels. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) formed a working group to evaluate and improve the quality and consistency of major risk assessments conducted by the Center. Drawing on risk analysis experiences, CFSAN developed a practical framework for initiating and managing risk assessments, including addressing issues related to (i) commissioning a risk assessment, (ii) interactions between risk managers and risk assessors, and (iii) peer review.

Comparison of fall risk assessment scales in the triage of an Italian emergency department

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Piras ◽  
G Murenu ◽  
G Piras ◽  
G Pia ◽  
A Azara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Fall Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Levels

Abstract Background Falls in hospital are adverse events with serious consequences for the patient. Fall risk assessment requires easy tools that are suitable for the specific clinical context. This is important to quickly identify preventing measures. The aim of the study is to identify an appropriate scale for assessing fall risk in patients from an emergency department. Methods For the fall risk assessment in the emergency department, three scales were identified in literature: Kinder 1, MEDFRAT, and Morse. MEDFRAT and Morse classify the patient in high, moderate, and low risk; Kinder 1 split patients “at risk” (also when there is only one positive item) and “non-risk” (in which all items are negative). The study was carried out in July 2019 in an Italian emergency department. Patients who arrived in triage were assessed for the fall risk using the three scales. Results On a sample of 318 patients, the used scales show different levels of fall risk. For Kinder 1, 83.02% is at risk and 16.98% is not at risk; for MEDFRAT, 14.78% is at high risk, 15.09% moderate, and 70.13% low risk; for Morse, 8.81% is at high risk, 35.53% moderate, and 56.66% low risk. As Kinder 1 implies as “high risk” that all items of the questionnaire are positive, to compare Kinder 1 to the other scales with three measurements, we assumed only one positive response as “moderate risk”, all negative responses as “low risk”. Thus, Kinder 1 shows no cases at high risk, 83.02% moderate risk, and 16.98% low risk. All the scales show that the moderate-high risk increases with age. MEDFRAT and Morse have concordant percentages for young (13.6%), elderly (61.2%), and long-lived (66.6%) people. Kinder 1, 59%, 96.7%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusions The comparison between scales shows inhomogeneity in identifying the level of risk. MEDFRAT and Morse appear more reliable and consistent. Key messages An appropriate assessment scale is important to identify the fall risk level. Identifying accurate fall risk levels allows for implementing specific prevention actions.

scholarly journals Quantitative Benefit–Risk Assessment: State of the Practice Within Industry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meredith Y. Smith ◽  
Janine van Til ◽  
Rachael L. DiSantostefano ◽  
A. Brett Hauber ◽  
Kevin Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Sciences ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Pilot Studies ◽  
Implementation Challenges ◽  
Regulatory Guidance ◽  
Benefit Risk Assessment ◽  
Regulatory Submissions

Abstract Background Benefit–risk assessments for medicinal products and devices have advanced significantly over the past decade. The purpose of this study was to characterize the extent to which the life sciences industry is utilizing quantitative benefit–risk assessment (qBRA) methods. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of industry professionals working in drug and/or medical device benefit–risk assessments (n = 20). Questions focused on the use, timing, and impact of qBRA; implementation challenges; and future plans. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded for thematic analysis. Results While most surveyed companies had applied qBRA, application was limited to a small number of assets—primarily to support internal decision-making and regulatory submissions. Positive impacts associated with use included improved team decision-making and communication. Multi-criteria decision analysis and discrete choice experiment were the most frequently utilized qBRA methods. A key challenge of qBRA use was the lack of clarity regarding its value proposition. Championing by senior company leadership and receptivity of regulators to such analyses were cited as important catalysts for successful adoption of qBRA. Investment in qBRA methods, via capability building and pilot studies, was also under way in some instances. Conclusion qBRA application within this sample of life sciences companies was widespread, but concentrated in a small fraction of assets. Its use was primarily for internal decision-making or regulatory submissions. While some companies had plans to build further capacity in this area, others were waiting for further regulatory guidance before doing so.

Risk assessment

2018 ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Maria Flynn ◽  
Dave Mercer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Nursing Care ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Healthcare Environments ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Routine Procedures

General adult nurses work with people in hospitals, hospices, community care services, and people’s homes. Irrespective of the place of work, there will be many routine procedures which are an important part of reducing risk to people and organizing subsequent nursing work. It is recognized that all organizations will have different risk assessment tools and recording procedures, but there are generic principles of safety which underpin all these tools. An important aspect of nursing decision-making and practice is understanding and managing risk, and factoring risk management into the planning and delivery of nursing care. This chapter considers the broad principles of risk assessments which are widely used across healthcare environments.

Bias Testing of the Public Safety Assessment: Error Rate Balance Between Whites and Blacks for New Arrests

2020 ◽  
pp. 001112872096511
Author(s):  
Matthew DeMichele ◽  
Peter Baumgartner
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
People Of Color ◽  
The Public ◽  
Error Measures ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Nuanced Understanding

This study is an evaluation of predictive bias by race when using a pretrial risk assessment. We use data from Kentucky from July 2013 through December 2014 ( n = 164,597) to evaluate differences across five error measures. Pretrial risk assessments were developed to respond to growing awareness about how intuitive processes were leading to disparate impact for people of color and the poor. This study contributes data to the debate about the merits of pretrial risk assessments. The crux of this debate is the lack of standards about how to assess predictive bias. Our analyses demonstrate that a more nuanced understanding of pretrial outcomes and decision making are needed before fully understanding the strengths and weaknesses of pretrial risk assessments.

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