An International Comparison of Employment in Recovery

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F35-F40
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rachel Whitworth
Keyword(s):  
International Comparison ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Population

While the global economic recovery remains fragile, output in most of the major advanced economies has been rising since mid-2009. Employment, however, tends to lag production, and unemployment continued to rise well into 2010 in many countries. The ILO estimates that the level of unemployment remains elevated by 30 million worldwide relative to 2007 (ILO-IMF, 2010). After taking into account global population developments, this points to a rise in the global unemployment rate of about ¾ percentage point. As the advanced economies have been faced with the brunt of the global downturn, unemployment rates have risen far more significantly within the OECD area. The unemployment rate in this region remains 2.9 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2008.

scholarly journals Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the US Unemployment Rate

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (2) ◽  
pp. 1054-1070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuaizhang Feng ◽  
Yingyao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Population Survey ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Labor Force Status ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Us

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official US unemployment rate substantially underestimates the true level of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in the labor force status in the Current Population Survey. During the period from January 1996 to August 2011, the corrected monthly unemployment rates are between 1 and 4.4 percentage points (2.1 percentage points on average) higher than the official rates, and are more sensitive to changes in business cycles. The labor force participation rates, however, are not affected by this correction.

scholarly journals Unemployment and COVID-19 Impact in Greece: A Vector Autoregression (VAR) Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Christos Katris
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the scope is to study whether and how the COVID-19 situation affected the unemployment rate in Greece. To achieve this, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed and data analysis is carried out. Another interesting question is whether the situation affected more heavily female and the youth unemployment (under 25 years old) compared to the overall unemployment. To predict the future impact of COVID-19 on these variables, we used the Impulse Response function. Furthermore, there is taking place a comparison of the impact of the pandemic with the other European countries for overall, female, and youth unemployment rates. Finally, the forecasting ability of such a model is compared with ARIMA and ANN univariate models.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 495
Author(s):  
Oussama Abi Younes ◽  
Sumru Altug
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Explicit Recognition

The coronavirus crisis that started in December 2019 was declared a pandemic by March 2020 and had devastating global consequences. The spread of the virus led to the implementation of different preventive measures prior to the availability of effective vaccines. While many governments implemented lockdowns to counter the pandemic, others did not let the virus halt economic activity. In this paper, we use a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive framework to study the effects of the pandemic on prices, unemployment rates, and interest rates in nine countries that took distinctive approaches in tackling the pandemic, where we introduce lockdowns as shocks to unemployment. Based on impulse response functions, we find that in most countries the unemployment rate rose, interest rates fell or turned negative, and prices fell initially following the implementation of the lockdown measures. However, the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages to counteract the effects of the pandemic reversed some of the effects on the variables, suggesting that models with explicit recognition of such effects should be developed.

Habit Formation in Tourism Traveling

2020 ◽  
pp. 004728752096459
Author(s):  
David Boto-García
Keyword(s):  
Habit Formation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Probit Models ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Individual Participation

This article conducts a microeconometric analysis of individual participation in tourism activities. We examine the existence of habit formation in the form of state dependence by which past trips increase the taste for traveling. We also study the role of regional unemployment rates, regional price indexes, and climate conditions at origin on the likelihood of tourism participation. Individual and household characteristics are also controlled for. We use monthly longitudinal microdata for Spain between 2015 and 2018 involving more than 92,000 individuals. We estimate static and dynamic random effects Probit models finding evidence of habit formation. The initial conditions and participation in the previous month raise the propensity to make a tourist trip in the following period by 28 percentage points. Habit formation is found to be strongly associated with income and education.

Is the Quality of Nursing Homes Countercyclical? Evidence From 2001 Through 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1044-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Shenghsiu Huang ◽  
John R Bowblis
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Homes ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Nursing Staff ◽  
Employee Turnover ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Care Process ◽  
Process Measures ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Design And Methods

Abstract Background and Objectives To examine whether nursing homes (NHs) provide better quality when unemployment rates rise (countercyclical) and explore mechanisms contributing to the relationship between quality and unemployment rates. Research Design and Methods The study uses the data on privately owned, freestanding NHs in the continental United States that span a period from 2001 through 2015. The empirical analysis relies on panel fixed-effect regressions with the key independent variable being the county-level unemployment rate. NH quality is measured using deficiencies, outcomes, and care process measures. We also examine nursing staff levels, as well as employee turnover and retention. Results NHs have better quality when unemployment rates increase. Higher unemployment rates are associated with fewer deficiencies and lower deficiency scores. This countercyclical relationship is also found among other quality measures. In terms of mechanisms, we find higher nursing staff levels, lower employee turnover, and better workforce retention when unemployment rates rise. Improvement in staffing is likely contributing to better quality during recessions. Interestingly, these effects predominately occur in for-profit NHs for deficiencies and staffing levels. Discussions and Implications NH quality is countercyclical. With near record-low unemployment rates in 2018, regulatory agencies should pay close attention to NH quality when and where the local economy registers strong growth. On the other hand, the finding of the unemployment rate–staffing/turnover relationship also suggests that policies increasing staffing and reducing employee turnover may not only improve NH quality but also have the potential to smooth quality fluctuations between business cycles.

Global rebalancing to support sustainable growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Low Energy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Growth

Significance Risks to its central scenario are more balanced and less skewed to the downside. Global imbalances are shrinking, partly thanks to low oil prices. This is boosting disposable income in oil-importing countries at the expense of oil-exporting ones. The dollar's strength is also helping rebalance the global economy, although the euro-area's growing current account surplus is contentious. Impacts Disinflation has become widespread, especially within advanced economies, but should be temporary. Low energy prices are estimated to add between 0.5-1.0 percentage points to global growth by 2016. A revision of guidelines and rules is required to reduce the risk of another financial crisis.

scholarly journals The State of States’ Unemployment in the Fourth District

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Murat Tasci ◽  
Caitlin Treanor
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Normal Level ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Us States ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations

Unemployment rates vary across individual US states at any point in time and respond to business-cycle fluctuations differently. Evaluating what constitutes a "normal" level for the unemployment rate at the state level is not easy, but it is an important issue for policymakers. We introduce a framework that enables us to calculate the normal unemployment rate for each of the four states in the Fourth District and compare that rate to the national normal rate. We conclude that these states and the District as a whole have very little labor market slack left from the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Is Eurozone accumulating a historic lag toward Asia in the COVID-19 context?

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 192-203
Author(s):  
J. Sapir ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
The Eu

The COVID-19 epidemic has shaken the world and affected the global economy. Coming from China, this epidemic has hit different countries in a close succession. Western Europe and the Eurozone were severely hit by the pandemy. The so-called “2nd wave” is creating havoc even in the countries that had quite well managed before – during the 1st wave of Spring 2020. Even with the vaccine, it is quite probable that economic recovery will be postponed to 2022–2023. Would the Eurozone accumulate a historic lag compared to Asia in the pandemy context? Analyses done by the end of September 2020, that is before the 2nd epidemic wave struck Europa, were already showing that the EU and the Eurozone, as some other advanced economies, fared worse in that context. This 2nd wave would quite probably strengthen this lagging.

scholarly journals Analisis dampak belanja modal dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Kabupaten Tebo

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Yoga Amanda ◽  
Zamzami Zamzami ◽  
Selamet Rahmadi
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Unemployed People ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Poverty Levels

This study aims to determine and analyze: 1). Changes that occur in capital expenditure, unemployment, and the number of poor people in Tebo Regency during 2004-2018, 2). Effect of capital expenditure and unemployment rates on poverty levels in Tebo Regency during 2004-2018. The data analysis method used in this study uses the formula of development and multiple linear regression. Based on the results of research during 2004- 2018 in Tebo Regency, the average capital expenditure increases 20.99 percent every year, the number of unemployed people has increased 28.57 percent every year and the average number of poor people has decreased 0, 42 percent every year. Capital expenditure and unemployment rate influence reducing the level of poverty in Tebo Regency during 2004-2018 with a regression coefficient value of capital expenditure and the unemployment rate which has a negative regression coefficient.  Keywords: Capital expenditure, Poverty rate, Unemployment rate

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