scholarly journals Population-Level Death Rates From Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952199367
Author(s):  
Samir Soneji ◽  
Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez ◽  
JaeWon Yang ◽  
Caroline Mann
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Reduction Method ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

South Korea was among the first countries to report a case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). As of August 14, 2020, South Korea reported 14 873 confirmed cases and 305 deaths from COVID-19. We collected the number of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths by age from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated population-level death rates by fitting a logistic regression model using Firth’s bias reduction method. We calculated the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) varying the COVID-19 prevalence and level of death undercount. Estimated population-level death rates of COVID-19 (deaths per 100 000 person-years) increased with age: 0.1 among 30 to 39 year olds, 1.1 among 60 to 69 year olds, and 14.5 among ≥80 year olds. The ASDR (deaths per 100 000 person-years) was 0.9 based on the current deaths and population-level prevalence of 0.03%. If the prevalence increased to 0.6% and 30% of COVID-19 deaths had not been reported, the ASDR would further increase to 13.7 to become the seventh leading cause of death. Currently, the population-level mortality burden of COVID-19 in South Korea, as measured by the ASDR, was relatively low compared with other causes but could increase substantially if the prevalence increases from another outbreak or COVID-19 deaths were undercounted.

scholarly journals How lethal is the novel coronavirus, and how many undetected cases there are? The importance of being tested

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ugo Bastolla
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Regularized Regression ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Infinite Time ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Apparent Death ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThere is big concern for estimating the lethality and the extent of undetected infections associated with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 outbreak. While detailed epidemiological models are certainly needed, I suggest here an orthogonal approach based on a minimum number of parameters robustly fitted from the cumulative data easily accessible for all countries at the John Hopkins University database that became the worldwide reference for the pandemics. I show that, after few days from the beginning of the outbreak, the apparent death rate can be extrapolated to infinite time through regularized regression such as rescaled ridge regression. The variation from country to country of these extrapolated death rates appears to depend almost only (r2 = 0.91) on the ratio between performed tests and detected cases even when the apparent instantaneous lethality rates are as different as 9% in Italy and 0.4% in Germany. Extrapolating to the limit of infinite number of tests, I obtain a death rate of 0.012 ± 0.012, in agreement with other estimates. The inverse relationship between the extrapolated death rate and the intensity tests allows estimating that more than 50% of cases were undetected in most countries, with more than 90% undetected cases in countries severely hit by the epidemics such as Italy. Finally, I propose to adopt the ratio between the cumulative number of recovered and deceased persons as an indicator that can anticipate the halting of the epidemics.

scholarly journals Population-Level Mortality Rates from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Soneji ◽  
Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez ◽  
JaeWon Yang ◽  
Caroline Mann
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
World Health ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACTBackgroundSouth Korea was among the first countries to report a case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outside of China. As of 22 March, 2020, South Korea reported 8897 confirmed cases of and 104 deaths from COVID-19.MethodsWe collected the number of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths in South Korea from the World Health Organization (as of 21 March, 2020) and case distribution and fatality rates by age from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (as of 22 March, 2020). We estimated population-level mortality rates by fitting a negative binomial regression model with the number of deaths as the outcome and population by age as an offset. We then calculated the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) based on the current COVID-19 figures and for alternative scenarios of increased prevalence.FindingsThe COVID-19 population-level mortality rate (per 100,000 person-years) increased with age: from 0.1 deaths among 30-39 year olds to 9.5 deaths among ≥80 year olds. The ASDR (per 100,000 person-years) was 0.8 deaths. The ASDR would increase to 52.0 deaths at a 1% prevalence (becoming the third leading cause of death) and 155.9 deaths at 3% prevalence (becoming the leading cause of death).InterpretationCurrently, the population-level mortality burden of COVID-19 in South Korea, as measured by the ASDR, was relatively low compared to other causes of death partly due to the low prevalence of COVID-19. If the prevalence increases from another outbreak, the mortality burden could increase substantially and surpass other leading causes.FundingGrant P2C-HD041022, California Center for Population Research, University of California, Los Angeles (US NIH).

Population-level analysis of antibiotic use and death rates in beef feedlots over ten years in three cattle-feeding regions of the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Stephanie C. Rutten-Ramos ◽  
Shabbir Simjee ◽  
Michelle S. Calvo-Lorenzo ◽  
Jason L. Bargen
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Cattle Feeding ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rate Ratios ◽  
Beef Feedlots

Abstract OBJECTIVE To assess antibiotic use and other factors associated with death rates in beef feedlots in 3 regions of the US over a 10-year period. SAMPLE Data for 186,297 lots (groups) of finished cattle marketed between 2010 and 2019 were obtained from a database representing feedlots in the central, high, and north plains of the US. PROCEDURES Descriptive statistics were generated. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate lot death rates for each region, sex (steer or heifer), and cattle origin (Mexico or the US) combination. Death rate was calculated as the (number of deaths/number of cattle placed in the lot) × 100. Lot antibiotic use (TotalActiveMG/KGOut) was calculated as the total milligrams of active antibiotics assigned to the lot per live weight (in kilograms) of cattle marketed from the lot. Rate ratios were calculated to evaluate the respective associations between lot death rate and characteristics of cattle and antibiotic use. RESULTS Mean death rate increased during the 10-year period, peaking in 2018. Mean number of days on feed also increased over time. Mean TotalActiveMG/KGOut was greatest in 2014 and 2015, lowest in 2017, and moderated in 2018 and 2019. Death rate was positively associated with the number of days on feed and had a nonlinear association with TotalActiveMG/KGOut. Feeding medicated feed articles mitigated death rate. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested a balance between disease prevention and control in feedlots for cattle with various risk profiles. Additional data sources are needed to assess TotalActiveMG/KGOut across the cattle lifetime.

FEATURES OF THE COURSE AND TACTICS OF MANAGING CHILDREN WITH KIDNEYS AND URINARY TRACT DISEASES DURING THE PANDEMIC OF NEW CORONAVIRUS INFECTION COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 100 (4) ◽  
pp. 74-79
Author(s):  
I.M. Kagantsov ◽  
◽  
V.V. Sizonov ◽  
V.G. Svarich ◽  
K.P. Piskunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Routine Care ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Urinary System ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Significant Health

The novel coronavirus infection (SARS-CoV-2), which first appeared in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has been declared a global pandemic by WHO. COVID-19 affects people of all age groups. The disease in children is usually asymptomatic or mild compared to adults, and with a significantly lower death rates. Data on kidney damage in children with COVID-19, as well as the effect of coronavirus infection on the course of diseases of the genitourinary system, are limited, the risks of contracting a new coronavirus infection in children with significant health problems, including those with chronic kidney disease, remain uncertain. The pandemic has affected the activities of surgeons treating diseases of the urinary system in children. Since the prospects for the end of the pandemic are vague, it is necessary to formulate criteria for selecting patients who can and should be provided with routine care in the pandemic. The purpose of this review is to highlight the features of the clinical manifestations and treatment of children with COVID-19, occurring against the background of previous renal pathology or complicating its course.

Contact Tracing Applications Against COVID-19: A Systematic Review (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Nabeel ◽  
Salman AlSabah ◽  
Eliana Al Haddad ◽  
Hutan Ashrafian
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Scientific Databases ◽  
Manual Methods ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Transmission Of Disease

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered public anxiety around the world. So far, the evidence suggests that prevention on a public scale is the most effective health measure for thwarting the progress of COVID-19. Another critical aspect of preventing COVID-19 is contact tracing. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of contact tracing applications currently available in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS We undertook a systematic review and narrative synthesis of all literature relating to contact tracing applications in the context of COVID-19. We searched 3 major scientific databases. Only articles that were published in English and were available as full-text articles were selected for review. Data were extracted and narrative syntheses conducted. RESULTS Five studies relating to COVID-19 were included in the review. Our results suggest that digitalized contact tracing methods can be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19. Three key themes were generated from this systematic review. First, the critical mass of application adoption must be attained at the population level before the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the solution can be increased. Second, usability factors such as access, ease of use and the elimination of barriers are essential in driving this uptake. Third, privacy must be ensured where possible as it is the single most significant barrier against achieving critical mass. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 2 million lives globally, with over 100 million confirmed cases. Contact tracing can rapidly identify potentially infected individuals before the emergence of severe or critical symptoms, and it can also prevent the subsequent transmission of disease from secondary cases when implemented efficiently. Contact tracing methods have proved to be beneficial for impeding the progress of COVID-19 as compared to older, more labor intensive manual methods.

scholarly journals Brief Report of Guidelines and Protocols for the Management of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-133
Author(s):  
Fabricia Oliveira Oliveira ◽  
Larissa Moraes dos Santos Fonseca ◽  
Roberto Badaró ◽  
Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Data Flows ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Guidelines And Recommendations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Coordinate Data

In less than a year, the novel coronavirus rapidly changed the world scenario. To dealing with the fast spread of the disease, health associations coordinate data flows and issue guidelines to better mitigate the impact of the threat. Also, scientific groups around the world are working to ensure that all information about the mechanisms of the virus, transmission, and disease clinics is updated as the disease progresses. The objective of this study was to present the guidelines and recommendations for preventing, management strategies, clarifications about pandemics disinformation, and diagnosing COVID-19 infection in human specimens adopted from the main health centers and institutions in the world, such as WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It is important to highlight that the rapid and effective enforcement of existing international and national action plans, as well as parallel review and improvisation, is facilitating the affected countries to contain transmission and possibly delay the peak of outbreak and mortality.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF CHRONIC DISEASES ON THE MANIFESTATION OF COVID-19 INFECTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 126-132
Author(s):  
S. O. Yastremska ◽  
O. M. Krekhovska-Lepiavko ◽  
B. A. Lokay ◽  
O. V. Bushtynska ◽  
S. V. Danchak
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
One Year ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Summary. The first known case of infection from the novel coronavirus was recorded almost one year ago, in China’s Hubei province. The city of Wuhan was infamous the world over as the original virus epicenter, seeing more than half of China’s reported cases and deaths. The outbreak of COVID-19 virus, as sickened more than 14.7 million people. At least 610.200 people have died. The aim of the study – to analyze and systematize the literature data about the influence of chronic diseases on the manifestation of COVID-19 infection. Materials and Methods. The study uses publications of the world scientific literature on COVID-19 infection, in particular the causes and mechanisms of its development, treatment, complications and its consequences as well as the influence of different chronic disorders on the course of COVID-19. Results. A sample of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 across 14 states of the USA in March was analyzed by The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It was found that many (89 %) had underlying health problem and 94 % of patients were at the age 65 and older. The case fatality rate for those under age 60 was 1.4 percent. For those over age 60, the fatality rate jumps to 4.5 percent. The older the population, the higher the fatality rate. For those 80 and over, Covid-19 appears to have a 13.4 percent fatality rate. Moreover, it was recognized, that older adults don't present in a typical way of the course of different disorders, and we're seeing that with Covid-19 as well. Conclusions. Chronic diseases and conditions are on the rise worldwide. COVID-19 became the most challenging pandemic influencing all countries worldwide. Chronic diseases are suggested to be one of the main causes of different life-threatening complications of COVID-19 infection and one of the main factors of poor prognosis for the patients.

scholarly journals Purely data-driven exploration of COVID-19 pandemic after three months of the outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirali Kadyrov ◽  
Hayot Berk Saydaliev
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Modeling ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractIt has been three months since the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. Many research studies were carried to understand its epidemiological characteristics in the early phase of the disease outbreak. The current study is yet another contribution to better understand the disease properties by parameter estimation of mathematical SIR epidemic modeling. The authors use Johns Hopkins University’s dataset to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 for representative countries (Japan, Germany, Italy, France, and Netherlands) selected using cluster analysis. As a by-product, the authors estimate transmission, recovery, and death rates for each selected country and carry statistical tests to see if there are any significant differences.

scholarly journals COVID-19-Related Web Search Behaviors and Infodemic Attitudes in Italy: Infodemiological Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta ◽  
Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula
Keyword(s):  
Web Search ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Search Activity ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Government Websites ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, fake news and misleading information have circulated worldwide, which can profoundly affect public health communication. OBJECTIVE We investigated online search behavior related to the COVID-19 outbreak and the attitudes of “infodemic monikers” (ie, erroneous information that gives rise to interpretative mistakes, fake news, episodes of racism, etc) circulating in Italy. METHODS By using Google Trends to explore the internet search activity related to COVID-19 from January to March 2020, article titles from the most read newspapers and government websites were mined to investigate the attitudes of infodemic monikers circulating across various regions and cities in Italy. Search volume values and average peak comparison (APC) values were used to analyze the results. RESULTS Keywords such as “novel coronavirus,” “China coronavirus,” “COVID-19,” “2019-nCOV,” and “SARS-COV-2” were the top infodemic and scientific COVID-19 terms trending in Italy. The top five searches related to health were “face masks,” “amuchina” (disinfectant), “symptoms of the novel coronavirus,” “health bulletin,” and “vaccines for coronavirus.” The regions of Umbria and Basilicata recorded a high number of infodemic monikers (APC weighted total >140). Misinformation was widely circulated in the Campania region, and racism-related information was widespread in Umbria and Basilicata. These monikers were frequently searched (APC weighted total >100) in more than 10 major cities in Italy, including Rome. CONCLUSIONS We identified a growing regional and population-level interest in COVID-19 in Italy. The majority of searches were related to amuchina, face masks, health bulletins, and COVID-19 symptoms. Since a large number of infodemic monikers were observed across Italy, we recommend that health agencies use Google Trends to predict human behavior as well as to manage misinformation circulation in Italy.

Bargaining under social distancing requirements: Effects of face masks on socio-economic decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramzi Fatfouta ◽  
Yulia Oganian
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Exchange ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Economic Decision Making ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Face ◽  
Human Social Behavior ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Face masks play a pivotal role in the control and prevention of respiratory diseases, such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Despite their widespread use, it is not known how face masks affect human social interaction. In this behavioral economics study (N = 475), we examined how mask-wearing modulates individuals’ likelihood of acceptance of unfair monetary offers in an iterated social exchange. Overall, participants accepted more offers, including more unfair offers, from mask-wearing opponents than from opponents without a mask. This effect was enhanced when participants ascribed more altruistic motives to their interaction partner. Importantly, this pattern of results was only present for surgical face masks, but not when a non-medical cloth face covering was used. This is the first study to uncover a new phenomenon, the face-mask effect, in which face masks can alter human social behavior.

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