The effect of voters’ economic perception, Brexit and campaigns on the evaluation of party leaders over time

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-219
Author(s):  
Jan Berz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Multilevel Growth Model ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Personalization Of Politics

When and why do voters change their evaluation of party leaders? Voters’ evaluations of party leaders are an increasingly important determinant of electoral behaviour. Which factors influence these evaluations of party leaders? Do voters evaluate party leaders who hold the office of prime minister differently from other party leaders, and do electoral campaigns and issues change these evaluations? I use a multilevel growth model with panel data from the United Kingdom to analyse effects over time. I find that campaigns play a significant role and that voters’ stance on Brexit has a considerable time-varying effect. In addition, voters use economic performance as a valence signal for party leaders holding the office of prime minister and therefore hold them accountable for bad economic performance, especially during election campaigns. These findings show that the personalization of politics may endanger the democratic function of elections to a lesser extent than is commonly feared.

The Migration-Crime Nexus and the Press in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-181
Author(s):  
Alexander A Caviedes
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Human Trafficking ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Press Coverage ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Press ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Over Time

This article explores the link between migrants and crime as portrayed in the European press. Examining conservative newspapers from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom from 2007 to 2016, the study situates the press coverage in each individual country within a comparative perspective that contrasts the frequency of the crime narrative to that of other prominent narratives, as well as to that in the other countries. The article also charts the prevalence of this narrative over time, followed by a discussion of which particular aspects of crime are most commonly referenced in each country. The findings suggest that while there has been no steady increase in the coverage of crime and migration, the press securitizes migration by focusing on crime through a shared emphasis on human trafficking and the non-European background of the perpetrators. However, other frames advanced in these newspapers, such as fraud or organized crime, comprise nationally distinctive characteristics.

Forecasting Interconnections in International Housing Markets: Evidence from the Dynamic Model Averaging Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-103
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Dynamic Model Averaging ◽  
Over Time

In this paper, I undertake a novel approach to uncover the forecasting interconnections in the international housing markets. Using a dynamic model averaging framework that allows both the coefficients and the entire forecasting model to dynamically change over time, I uncover the intertwined forecasting relationships in 23 leading international housing markets. The evidence suggests significant forecasting interconnections in these markets. However, no country holds a constant forecasting advantage, including the United States and the United Kingdom, although the U.S. housing market's predictive power has increased over time. Evidence also suggests that allowing the forecasting model to change is more important than allowing the coefficients to change over time.

Prime Ministers and the Public

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Weller
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Significant Part ◽  
Media Management ◽  
Prime Ministers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Technological Capacity ◽  
The Media

Prime ministers are the key campaigners for their governments, not just in electoral campaigns, but every day and in every place. Media management has become a continuing and significant part of the prime ministers’ activities; it is a daily, indeed an hourly, pressure. Speeches have to be planned. The pressure has changed the tone and priorities of governing. It has dangers as well as benefits. Media demands have become more immediate, more continuous, and more intrusive. Prime ministers must respond. The same technical changes allow prime ministers to interact with their voters in a way that bypasses journalists and other intermediaries. They are writ large in campaigns. They are never out of mind or out of sight. Re-election is always a consideration for tactics and strategy. The public leader, the ‘rhetorical prime minister’, is shaped by the demands of the media and organized by the technological capacity.

scholarly journals Resource and waste quantification scenarios for wind turbine decommissioning in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Tota-Maharaj ◽  
Alexander McMahon
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Waste Management ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
End Of Life ◽  
Wind Turbines ◽  
Rapid Rise ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time

AbstractWind power produces more electricity than any other form of renewable energy in the United Kingdom (UK) and plays a key role in decarbonisation of the grid. Although wind energy is seen as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, there are still several environmental impacts associated with all stages of the lifecycle of a wind farm. This study determined the material composition for wind turbines for various sizes and designs and the prevalence of such turbines over time, to accurately quantify waste generation following wind turbine decommissioning in the UK. The end of life stage is becoming increasingly important as a rapid rise in installation rates suggests an equally rapid rise in decommissioning rates can be expected as wind turbines reach the end of their 20–25-year operational lifetime. Waste data analytics were applied in this study for the UK in 5-year intervals, stemming from 2000 to 2039. Current practices for end of life waste management procedures have been analysed to create baseline scenarios. These scenarios have been used to explore potential waste management mitigation options for various materials and components such as reuse, remanufacture, recycling, and heat recovery from incineration. Six scenarios were then developed based on these waste management options, which have demonstrated the significant environmental benefits of such practices through quantification of waste reduction and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings. For the 2015–2019 time period, over 35 kilotonnes of waste are expected to be generated annually. Overall waste is expected to increase over time to more than 1200 kilotonnes annually by 2039. Concrete is expected to account for the majority of waste associated with wind turbine decommissioning initially due to foundations for onshore turbines accounting for approximately 80% of their total weight. By 2035–2039, steel waste is expected to account for almost 50% of overall waste due to the emergence of offshore turbines, the foundations of which are predominantly made of steel.

Baghdad Pact

1957 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 546-547 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Annual Meeting ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Military ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Military ◽  
Opening Session

The Council of the Baghdad Pact held its annual meeting in Karachi from June 3 through 6, 1957. Representatives were present from the five member countries—Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and the United Kingdom—and the United States was represented by an observer delegation. The Council had been scheduled to meet months earlier, but Iraq originally refused to meet with the United Kingdom. At the opening session, presided over by Mr. Suhrawardy, Prime Minister of Pakistan, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Nuri es Said, was reported to have spoken forcefully about the dangers implicit in the problems of Israel, Algeria, Kashmir and Cyprus. Mr. Lloyd, Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, was reported to have followed Mr. Nuri es Said's remarks with a speech in which he announced his government's offer of a contribution of £500,000 a year in cash and in kind for building up the minimum military infra-structure in member countries. The speeches of other delegates were reported to be noteworthy for their frank recognition of past weaknesses in the Baghdad Pact organization and the need to give it new effectiveness. In the course of the first session the United States formally accepted an invitation to join the Pact's Military Committee; and a United States military delegation headed by General Nathan F. Twining started participating in a separate concurrent meeting of the Military Committee. The United States thus became a member of the Pact's three main committees, but had still not become a formal member of the Pact.

How Do Campaign Spending Limits Affect Elections? Evidence from the United Kingdom 1885–2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
ALEXANDER FOUIRNAIES
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Limit Formula ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Legal Constraints ◽  
The Cost

In more than half of the democratic countries in the world, candidates face legal constraints on how much money they can spend on their electoral campaigns, yet we know little about the consequences of these restrictions. I study how spending limits affect UK House of Commons elections. I contribute new data on the more than 70,000 candidates who ran for a parliamentary seat from 1885 to 2019, and I document how much money each candidate spent, how they allocated their resources across different spending categories, and the spending limit they faced. To identify the effect on elections, I exploit variation in spending caps induced by reforms of the spending-limit formula that affected some but not all constituencies. The results indicate that when the level of permitted spending is increased, the cost of electoral campaigns increases, which is primarily driven by expenses related to advertisement and mainly to the disadvantage of Labour candidates; the pool of candidates shrinks and elections become less competitive; and the financial and electoral advantages enjoyed by incumbents are amplified.

Hindutva Philosophy Reinforcement by the rss/bjp against Minorities and the Economic Performance of Narendra Modi’s Government in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-366
Author(s):  
Rajeev Ranjan Kumar ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Religious Minorities ◽  
Lower Caste ◽  
The Core ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government

Abstract Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a controversial figure and has polarised public debate for over a decade. He is criticised for the decline in growth rate and increase in unemployment rate. It has been five years since the Modi-led Bhartiya Janata Party (bjp) came to power, so analysing the economic performance and extremist religious behaviour of the Modi-led bjp/rss (Rastriya Sevak Sangh) is interesting. This article discusses the non-conventional views on the economic performance of the government in India, and the ideology of Hindutva and hatred towards religious minorities. This deep-rooted hatred of religious minorities and the lower caste is the core philosophy of Hindutva and is followed by the bjp and rss. Under the shadow of the rss, the Modi government has focused on Hindutva rather than the economy and the people, which has been the most important factor in the economic decline of India.

scholarly journals The Application of the Constitutional Convention in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Nazri Muslim ◽  
Osman Md Rasip ◽  
Khairul Hamimah Mohammad Jodi ◽  
Abdullah Ibrahim ◽  
Otong Rosadi
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Social Contract ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Collective Responsibility ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Ethics ◽  
Constitutional Convention ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Federal Constitution ◽  
The Social

In Malaysia, there is no one institution that can outdo the supremacy of the Federal Constitution. Even the three government bodies that refer to the power separation doctrine which is the legislative, judiciary and executive bodies even the Yang di-Pertuan Agong are under this Federal Constitution. The constitution can be divided into two, written and non-written constitution. The written constitution is the form of constitution that is gathered and arranged in one document. The non-written counterpart encompasses all of the constitutional principles not compiled in one document such as the law endorsed by the Parliament and the verdicts of the court such as in the United Kingdom. Other than the constitution, there are certain practices that are thought to be part of the principles of the constitution. This is known as the Constitutional Convention or the customary practice of the Constitution. Constitutional convention is a non-legislative practice and it is similar to the political ethics and not enforced in court. Although it seems trivial, it is important for this practice to be complied with, otherwise it is difficult for the constitution to work successfully as the constitutional convention cannot be brought to court and forced to be obeyed. Thus, the discussion of this article rests on the constitutional convention in terms of the social contract, the appointment of the Prime Minister, the appointment of the country’s main positions and collective responsibility.

scholarly journals Personality Goes a Long Way

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Costa Lobo
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Party Organizations ◽  
The Third ◽  
Strong Trend ◽  
The Media ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Different Dimensions ◽  
Personalization Of Politics

This article reviews books which test the personalization of politics, looking at different dimensions of the growing importance of leaders over time, namely for political parties, in electoral behaviour and in the media. Only recently have wide-ranging comparative longitudinal studies on leaders been carried out. The personalization thesis is not equally demonstrated across all dimensions. Indeed, we find something of a puzzle: There is no strong trend towards personalization of party organizations, whereas in electoral behaviour the evidence points to the increasing use by voters of leaders as heuristics. This attests to the decline of the importance of parties. The personalization of media may be the mechanism which explains the change in voting behaviour, and the third and final section of the review looks into that arena. We conclude with some suggestions on further research on the personalization of politics.

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