scholarly journals Gender Disparities and Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. From 1994-2019: Age-period-cohort Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudiyang Ma ◽  
Yiran Cui ◽  
Qian Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Transmitted Disease ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
Gender Disparities ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Hiv Aids

Abstract Background: HIV/AIDS is a serious sexually transmitted disease with poor prognosis. So statistical data on burden of HIV/AIDS incidence and epidemic characteristics are valuable for policy making and reducing healthcare costs. This study aims to explore gender disparities of HIV/AIDS incidence and relative risks of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender and age groups in China and U.S. Methods: We extracted data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study and compared epidemic characteristic and gender disparities between China and U.S. Then we employed APC model to estimate age-period-cohort effect of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. Results: ASIR in China kept growing between 1994 and 2004 then fell to the level of mid-1990s but in U.S. ASIR increased in the past decade. There existed a huge and continuous expanding gender gap in U.S. while it came to widen in China before 2005 then shrunk during 2005-2019. APC analysis showed the age effect and period effect were consistent to the result of incidence comparison between male and female: gender disparities increased with progress of time in both countries and men had higher incidence of HIV/AIDS when they became old in China. Cohort effect indicated later birth groups bear relatively higher risks of incidence than earlier birth groups. Conclusions: large gender disparities could worsen the HIV epidemic situation. In the U.S., disparities continuously expanded meanwhile incidence of HIV/AIDS was increasing, while gap was under control in China and incidence curbed. Analyzing by APC model, besides younger age groups exposed to high risks of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries, elder citizens in China faced higher risks which implies aging of population may lead another wave of HIV/AIDS epidemic. Therefore, both young and old age groups deserve to be noticed by police-makers and narrow gender disparities should put on agenda.

scholarly journals Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Diabetes in China from 1990 to 2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxue Liu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu ◽  
Yongbo Wang ◽  
Yongyi Bi ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing in China, but the secular trends in incidence and mortality remain unknown. This study aims to examine time trends from 1990 to 2017 and the net age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes incidence and mortality. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 5–9 to 80–84 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: The joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.3%) in men and 0.69% in women (95% CI: 0.3%, 1.0%) from 1990 to 2017; age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.78% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in men and decreased by 0.12% (95% CI: −0.4%, 0.1%) in women. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of 30–34, 60–64, 65–69 and 70–74 age groups in men and 25–29, 30–34, 35–39 and 70–74 age groups in women; mortality in men decreased in the younger age groups (from 20–24 to 45–49 age group) while increased in the older age groups (from 50–54 to 80–84 age group), and mortality in women decreased for all age groups with exception of the age group 75–79 and 80–84. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age while mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period while the period trend on incidence began to decrease since 2007; cohort effect on incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts while incidence showed no material changes from 1982–1986 to 2012–2016 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups. Incidence increased in most age groups. The net age or period effect showed an unfavorable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favorable trend. Aging likely drives a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for obesity prevention, healthy diet and regular physical activity should be conducted, especially for men and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

scholarly journals Long-Term Changes of HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate in China and the U.S. Population From 1994 to 2019: A Join-Point and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudiyang Ma ◽  
Yiran Cui ◽  
Qian Hu ◽  
Sumaira Mubarik ◽  
Donghui Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hiv Risk ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Join Point ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Hiv Risk Factors ◽  
Hiv Aids

Although HIV caused one of the worst epidemics since the late twentieth century, China and the U.S. has made substantial progress to control the spread of HIV/AIDS. However, the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence remain unclear in both countries. Therefore, this study aimed to highlight the long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence by gender in China and the U.S. population. The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database since it would be helpful to assess the impact/role of designed policies in the control of HIV/AIDS incidence in both countries. The age-period-cohort (APC) model and join-point regression analysis were employed to estimate the age-period-cohort effect and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) on HIV incidence. Between 1994 and 2019, we observed an oscillating trend of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) in China and an increasing ASIR trend in the U.S. Despite the period effect in China declined for both genders after peaked in 2004, the age effect in China grew among the young (from 15–19 to 25–29) and the old age groups (from 65–69 to 75–79). Similarly, the cohort effect increased among those born in the early (from 1924–1928 to 1934–1938) and the latest birth groups (from 1979–1983 to 2004–2009). In the case of the U.S., the age effect declined after it peaked in the 25–29 age group. People born in recent birth groups had a higher cohort effect than those born in early groups. In both countries, women were less infected by HIV than men. Therefore, besides effective strategies and awareness essential to protect the young age groups from HIV risk factors, the Chinese government should pay attention to the elderly who lacked family support and were exposed to HIV risk factors.

scholarly journals Gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence among adolescents: an age-period-cohort analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Hyun Hwang ◽  
Soon-Woo Park
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Secular Trend ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Cohort Groups ◽  
Gender Differential

Abstract Background There has been a gender difference in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence trends over the last 10 years. This study aimed to explain the gender differential secular trend in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and suggests possible causes for this trend, including Korean tobacco control policies during the last 10 years. Methods We utilized the 2006–2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey enrolling grades 7 to 12. Using year of survey and year of entry into middle school, we classified 859,814 students who had ever smoked into 6 age groups, 12 periods, and 17 school admission cohorts. Using APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator method, the effects of age, period, and school admission cohort on lifetime smoking prevalence were analyzed according to gender. Results Overall, there was a similar tendency of all the three effects on lifetime smoking prevalence between genders: an increasing age effect with grade, negative period effect with survey period, and similar pattern of school admission cohort groups. However, compared to boys, girls experienced reduction in the increasing age effect in the 12th grade, consistent and steeper decreasing trend in the period effect from 2006 to 2016, and shorter and lower school admission cohort effect. Conclusions Gender differential response to chronological changes in lifetime smoking prevalence was measured by the APC effect, which affected the gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence. Therefore, considering the APC effect could help us understand the trend in smoking rates, as well as the contextual factors that affect it.

scholarly journals Becoming a Movement Society? Patterns in the Public Acceptance of Protest, 1985 - 2006

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon Seok Park ◽  
Rachel Einwohner
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Social Engagement ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Public Acceptance ◽  
Social Location ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Public ◽  
The U.S

A social movement society refers to a society in which protest is a standard, institutionalized feature of the political landscape. Is the U.S. steadily becoming such a society? Whereas other empirical tests of the movement society thesis have focused on political tactics and individual participation in protest, we point to the public’s attitudes as another indicator of the movement society. Using General Social Survey data, we find that the public has grown more accepting of protest with time. In addition, using indicators of social location, social engagement, and political engagement as predictors, we find that while these factors help explain support for protest, their effects vary depending on the type of protest in question. Age, education, gender, income, employment status, and political interest all affect the acceptance of public meetings and demonstrations; however, the effect of income is reversed when it comes to the acceptance of a nationwide strike. Lastly, an age-period-cohort analysis finds evidence that a period effect is greater than a cohort effect in changing attitudes over time. Taken together, these findings support the claim that broad, societal-level influences have contributed to the public acceptance of protest, which is suggestive of a social movement society. Yet while the U.S. may constitute a social movement society, it is one with clear boundaries: individuals do support protest, but only to the extent that it does not disrupt the material advantages associated with their social location.

scholarly journals Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam-Hee Kim ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Chewing Ability ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

scholarly journals Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Huan Ma ◽  
Suru Yue ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

scholarly journals All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984–2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2068
Author(s):  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Songbo Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Males And Females

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984–2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55–59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of “rise first and then fall,” and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904–1908 to 1989–1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

scholarly journals Suicide Mortality in Canada and Quebec, 1926-2008: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Thibodeau
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Suicide Rates

Suicide rates raise with age has remained consistent for more than 150 years but over the last 50 years major changes occurred. We examined Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects on suicide mortality rate by gender in Canada and in Quebec from 1926 to 2008. Durkheim theoretical framework is used to interpret our findings. Descriptive analysis and APC models relating to the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) were used to assess these effects. IE model shows suicide net age effect for men in Canada and Quebec as death rate increased until 25 years old before reaching a plateau. For women it’s an inverted "U" shape peaking at mid-adulthood. While period effect differs, a net cohort effect is found for men born in 1941, and women in 1981 until most recent cohorts. 

scholarly journals Mortality due to cancer of the uterine cervix in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1980-2005: period and cohort analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 1446-1456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Maria Meurer Alves ◽  
Ronaldo Rocha Bastos ◽  
Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra
Keyword(s):  
Uterine Cervix ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Expected Mortality

This study identifies the period and cohort effects on the decreasing mortality trend of cancer of the uterine cervix and of the uterus, part unspecified, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, during the period 1980-2005. 11,243 cases were included. A non-parametric method was used to calculate Z statistics and p-values. The cohorts were assessed one by one and also in blocks of three, so as to allow for a larger number of comparisons to be made. Greater than expected mortality reduction was observed for the cohort blocks of women born in 1913-1920; 1927-1936; 1937-1946; 1949-1956; 1963-1970; and 1969-1976. For the 1901-1908 and 1921-1928 cohort blocks a smaller than expected mortality decrease was found. As for period effect, we found a greater than expected reduction for the 2000-2001 period, in comparison with the previous one. The study suggests the existence of a significant cohort effect on mortality due to cancer of the uterine cervix in the study population, and such results have been placed in their social and political contexts.

scholarly journals Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5607
Author(s):  
Luqi Wang ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
The Past

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

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