scholarly journals Predicting the cost of malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Rima Shretta ◽  
Sheetal Silal ◽  
Lisa J. White ◽  
Richard J. Maude

Over the past decade, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region have made significant progress towards the goal of malaria elimination by the year 2030. It is widely accepted that for the region to meet this goal, an intensification of efforts supported by sustained funding is required. However, robust estimates are needed for the optimal coverage and components of malaria elimination packages and the resources required to implement them. In this collection, a multispecies mathematical and economic modelling approach supported by the estimated burden of disease is used to make preliminary estimates for the cost of elimination and develop an evidence-based investment case for the region.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shwe Sin Kyaw ◽  
Gilles Delmas ◽  
Tom L. Drake ◽  
Olivier Celhay ◽  
Wirichada Pan-ngum ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Mass drug administration (MDA) has received growing interest to accelerate the elimination of multi-drug resistant malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Targeted MDA, sometimes referred to as focal MDA, is the practice of delivering MDA to high incidence subpopulations only, rather than the entire population. The potential effectiveness of delivering targeted MDA was demonstrated in a recent intervention in Kayin State, Myanmar. Policymakers and funders need to know what resources are required if MDA, targeted or otherwise, is to be included in elimination packages beyond existing malaria interventions. This study aims to estimate the programmatic cost and the unit cost of targeted MDA in Kayin State, Myanmar. Methods We used financial data from a malaria elimination initiative, conducted in Kayin State, to estimate the programmatic costs of the targeted MDA component using a micro-costing approach. Three activities (community engagement, identification of villages for targeted MDA, and conducting mass treatment in target villages) were evaluated. We then estimated the programmatic costs of implementing targeted MDA to support P. falciparum malaria elimination in Kayin State. A costing tool was developed to aid future analyses. Results The cost of delivering targeted MDA within an integrated malaria elimination initiative in eastern Kayin State was approximately US$ 910,000. The cost per person reached, distributed among those in targeted and non-targeted villages, for the MDA component was US$ 2.5. Conclusion This cost analysis can assist policymakers in determining the resources required to clear malaria parasite reservoirs. The analysis demonstrated the value of using financial data from research activities to predict programmatic implementation costs of targeting MDA to different numbers of target villages.


Author(s):  
Monika Jain

India dropped out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, China, South Korea, New Zealand, Japan and Australia, after negotiating for almost seven years in November 2018 on the grounds of national interest and also that free trade agreements (FTAs) did not amount to free trade and led to more trade diversion than trade creation. The cost and benefit of a regional agreement depend on the amount of trade creation with respect to trade diversion (Panagriya, 2000). This study tries to examine India’s concerns and at the same time, highlights the cost of not joining RCEP. India’s trade deficit with 11 out of the 15 RCEP nations has been a major cause of concern. Unfavourable trade balance, concerns about the impact on dairy sector, economic slowdown, past experience with FTA’s, China factor, data localisation, rules of origin, the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the reasons behind India’s decision to opt-out of this mega multilateral agreement. Also, bilateral trade agreements with some RCEP countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea were operational. A multilateral trade agreement with ASEAN countries was very much in place. So, trade between India and 12 of the RCEP member countries would not have changed much after India’s inclusion in RCEP. The impact of lower tariffs would have been evident for the remaining three countries: China, Australia and New Zealand. Furthermore, there was fear of a massive surge in imports of manufactures from China, dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This study also examines the long term impact of this decision and if India has missed out on becoming a part of the global value chain and gaining greater market access in the Asia Pacific region. India’s policy of import substitution and protectionism did not capitulate desired results in the past. Hence, a critical evaluation of India’s decision and some validation on her concerns and fears have been done.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier J. Celhay ◽  
Sheetal Prakash Silal ◽  
Richard James Maude ◽  
Chris Erwin Gran Mercado ◽  
Rima Shretta ◽  
...  

Leaders in the Asia-Pacific have endorsed an ambitious target to eliminate malaria in the region by 2030. The emergence and spread of artemisinin drug resistance in the Greater Mekong Subregion makes elimination urgent and strategic for the global goal of malaria eradication. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for assessing and comparing different elimination strategies and scenarios to inform policymakers. Mathematical models are especially relevant in this context because of the wide heterogeneity of regional, country and local settings, which means that different strategies are needed to eliminate malaria. However, models and their predictions can be seen as highly technical, limiting their use for decision making. Simplified applications of models are needed to allow policy makers to benefit from these valuable tools. This paper describes a method for communicating complex model results with a user-friendly and intuitive framework. Using open-source technologies, we designed and developed an interactive application to disseminate the modelling results for malaria elimination. The design was iteratively improved while the application was being piloted and extensively tested by a diverse range of researchers and decision makers. This application allows several target audiences to explore, navigate and visualise complex datasets and models generated in the context of malaria elimination. It allows widespread access, use of and interpretation of models, generated at great effort and expense as well as enabling them to remain relevant for a longer period of time. It has long been acknowledged that scientific results need to be repackaged for larger audiences. We demonstrate that modellers can include applications as part of the dissemination strategy of their findings. We highlight that there is a need for additional research in order to provide guidelines and direction for designing and developing effective applications for disseminating models.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rima Shretta ◽  
Sheetal Prakash Silal ◽  
Olivier J. Celhay ◽  
Chris Erwin Gran Mercado ◽  
Shwe Sin Kyaw ◽  
...  

Background: The Asia-Pacific region has made significant progress against malaria, reducing cases and deaths by over 50% between 2010 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, by strong political and financial commitment of governments and donors. However, funding gaps and persistent health system challenges threaten further progress. Achieving the regional goal of malaria elimination by 2030 will require an intensification of efforts and a plan for sustainable financing. This article presents an investment case for malaria elimination to facilitate these efforts. Methods: A transmission model was developed to project rates of decline of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria and the output was used to determine the cost of the interventions that would be needed for elimination by 2030. In total, 80 scenarios were modelled under various assumptions of resistance and intervention coverage. The mortality and morbidity averted were estimated and health benefits were monetized by calculating the averted cost to the health system, individual households, and society. The full-income approach was used to estimate the economic impact of lost productivity due to premature death and illness, and a return on investment was computed. Results: The study estimated that malaria elimination in the region by 2030 could be achieved at a cost of USD 29.02 billion (range: USD 23.65-36.23 billion) between 2017 and 2030. Elimination would save over 400,000 lives and avert 123 million malaria cases, translating to almost USD 90 billion in economic benefits. Discontinuing vector control interventions and reducing treatment coverage rates to 50% will result in an additional 845 million cases, 3.5 million deaths, and excess costs of USD 7 billion. Malaria elimination provides a 6:1 return on investment. Conclusion: This investment case provides compelling evidence for the benefits of continued prioritization of funding for malaria and can be used to develop an advocacy strategy.


2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roly D Gosling ◽  
Maxine Whittaker ◽  
Cara Smith Gueye ◽  
Nancy Fullman ◽  
Mario Baquilod ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Irina V. Filimonova ◽  
Vasily Yu. Nemov ◽  
Irina V. Provornaya ◽  
Anastasia V. Chebotareva

В статье проанализирована роль Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона в экспорте нефти и газа из России. Оценен экспортный потенциал восточных регионов России. Уделено внимание транспортной инфраструктуре экспортного назначения, охарактеризован трубопроводный транспорт на востоке России, проанализирована доля объёма транспортировки углеводородов в совокупном производстве энергоносителей в России. Изучена динамика изменения стоимостной структуры экспортируемых энергоносителей из России. Авторами исследована также структура потребления и производства энергоносителей в странах АТР, Северной Америки и Европы. Отдельно рассмотрены мировые рынки нефти и газа, а также перспективы сотрудничества со странами АТР в энергетической сфере. The article analyzes the role of the Asia-Pacific region in the export of oil and gas from Russia. The export potential of the eastern regions of Russia was evaluated, attention was also paid to transport infrastructure for export, pipeline transport in the east of Russia was characterized, the share of hydrocarbon transportation in the total energy production in Russia was analyzed. The dynamics of changes in the cost structure of exported energy from Russia was studied. The authors also investigated the structure of energy consumption and production in the Asia-Pacific countries, North America and Europe. The world oil and gas markets, as well as the prospects for cooperation with the Asia-Pacific countries in the energy sector were separately considered.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Te Liao ◽  
Chun-Ting Yang ◽  
Fang-Hsiu Kuo ◽  
Mei-Chuan Lee ◽  
Wei-Ting Chang ◽  
...  

Background: EMPEROR-Reduced trial provides promising evidence on the efficacy of empagliflozin adding to the standard treatment in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of add-on empagliflozin vs. standard therapy alone in HFrEF from the perspective of the Asia-Pacific healthcare systems.Methods: A Markov model was constructed to simulate HFrEF patients and to project the lifetime direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of both therapies. Transitional probabilities were derived from the EMPEROR-Reduced trial. Country-specific costs and utilities were extracted from published resources. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) against willingness to pay (WTP) threshold was used to examine the cost-effectiveness. A series of sensitivity analyses was performed to ensure the robustness of the results.Results: The ICERs of add-on empagliflozin vs. standard therapy alone in HFrEF were US$20,508, US$24,046, US$8,846, US$53,791, US$21,543, and US$20,982 per QALY gained in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and Australia, respectively. Across these countries, the probabilities of being cost-effective for using add-on empagliflozin under the WTP threshold of 3-times country-specific gross domestic product per capita were 93.7% in Taiwan, 95.6% in Japan, 96.3% in South Korea, 94.2% Singapore, 51.9% in Thailand, and 95.9% in Australia. The probabilities were reduced when shortening the time horizon, assuming the same cardiovascular mortality for both treatments, and setting lower WTP thresholds.Conclusion: Adding empagliflozin to HFrEF treatment is expected to be a cost-effective option among the Asia-Pacific countries. The cost-effectiveness is influenced by the WTP thresholds of different countries.


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